Zitat von Haettsch: Bezüglich Jansen mine . Es bleibt spannend. guten morgen, und auf zur nächsten runde! für den langzeitorientierten investor: glück auf! uraltkali Jansen project: which way will BHP jump? So what are we to make of BHP Billiton and the Jansen question? As you will recall, just over a week ago a Sydney newspaper reported BHP chief Marius Kloppers indicated in a briefing that the Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan could be put on hold because it posed “the highest risk from a technical-design perspective and was the least compelling in market terms” of the company’s three current major projects. BHP has not issued a denial of this. This led London-based Libertas Capital to tell its investor clients: “As Jansen had the ultimate potential to more or less match current worldwide potash production, it is debateable if this development is good news for sentiment towards the potash sector. If BHP doesn’t like the prospect for higher spot prices, why should anyone else? In addition, the overhang remains, if there are strong potash prices for a couple of years it could be rapidly resuscitated at any stage.” But the original Sydney Morning Herald story was rebutted from the company’s Canadian arm. A wire story run by several newspapers, including the Regina Leader-Post, quoted a BHP vice-president, Chris Ryder, saying there had been no change, and adding: “Jansen is at near the top of our projects list.” Ryder said the Klopper remarks had been taken out of context. This provoked another note from Libertas, describing Ryder’s denial as “vehement” and then remarking: “We await the next twist in this internal disagreement”. Is that what it is? A disagreement from two parts of the BHP empire? If so, then it clearly has some way to run. A few weeks ago, Deutsche Bank raised the issue of BHP and mega-projects. (Apart from Jansen, the others on the boil are US onshore and offshore gas, the Olympic Dam expansion and the Outer Harbour iron ore expansion.) The bank’s analysts saw a key problem for BHP being the task of convincing shareholders of the point of these enormous long-term investments. Those four projects will mean an outlay of $120 billion over the next 15 years and would not provide any return on assets until fiscal 2023. The Jansen project is expected to provide an internal rate of return of 12 per cent based on a long-term potash price of $US480 a tonne. This, of course, does not allow for cost overruns - something that seems to happen to most major resource projects. And, remember, BHP has had its share of costly blunders: the Ravensthorpe laterite nickel mine, the hot-briquetted iron project, its Magma copper mine in the U.S. all spring to mind. Kloppers won't want another one on his watch, so you can imagine that all of BHP's projects will be undergoing the greatest of scrutiny. Posted by Robin Bromby at 08:59:56 PM in Blog, Editor, Robin Bromby |
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| aus der Diskussion: | K+S - der Vereinigungsthread |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | uraltkali (20.02.12 10:35:03) |
| Beitrag: | 952 von 46,931 (ID:42776134) |
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