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Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter 2011 Results




NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mar. 22, 2012-- Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (OTCQB: ABKFQ) (Ambac) today announced a fourth quarter 2011 net loss of $963.2 million, or a net loss of $3.18 per share. This compares to a fourth quarter 2010 net loss of $81.6 million, or a net loss of $0.27 per share. Relative to fourth quarter 2010, fourth quarter 2011 results were primarily driven by higher net loss and loss expenses, derivative product losses, and higher losses on variable interest entities (“VIE’s”).

As previously announced, on November 8, 2010, Ambac filed for a voluntary petition for relief under Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code (“Bankruptcy Code”) in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York (“Bankruptcy Court”). The Bankruptcy Court entered an order confirming Ambac’s plan of reorganization on March 14, 2012. However, Ambac is not currently able to estimate when it will be able to consummate such reorganization. Until the plan of reorganization is consummated and Ambac emerges from bankruptcy, Ambac will continue to operate in the ordinary course of business as “debtor-in-possession” in accordance with the applicable provisions of the Bankruptcy Code and the orders of the Bankruptcy Court.

Fourth Quarter 2011 Summary

Relative to the fourth quarter of 2010,
• Net premiums earned increased $2.2 million to $112.8 million
• Net investment income increased $16.7 million to $92.0 million
• Net loss and loss expenses incurred were up $662.2 million to $803.6 million
• Loss on VIEs increased $153.8 million to $265.6 million
• Derivative product revenues declined $121.4 million to a net loss of $20.5 million

As of December 31, 2011, unrestricted cash, short-term securities and bonds at the holding company (Ambac) totaled $35.4 million, a decline of $10.9 million from September 30, 2011.

Financial Results

Net Premiums Earned

Net premiums earned for the fourth quarter of 2011 were $112.9 million, up 2% from $110.7 million earned in the fourth quarter of 2010. Net premiums earned include accelerated premiums, which result from refundings, calls, and other accelerations recognized during the quarter. Accelerated premiums were $30.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2011, up 247% from $8.7 million in the fourth quarter 2010. The increase in accelerated premiums was primarily driven by a commutation of a portion of a large transportation transaction during the quarter. Normal net premiums earned, which exclude accelerated premiums, were $82.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2011, down 19% from $102.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2010. Normal net premiums earned for the period have been negatively impacted by the lack of new business written and the continued run-off of the insured portfolio.

Net Investment Income

For the combined financial guarantee and financial services investment portfolios, net investment income for the fourth quarter of 2011 was $92.0 million, an increase of 22% from $75.3 million earned for the fourth quarter of 2010. The increase was primarily attributable to a higher average portfolio yield and an increase in the size of the long term invested asset base in the financial guarantee investment portfolio. The higher average portfolio yield was achieved through the ongoing re-allocation of financial guarantee portfolio investments from tax exempt municipal securities to taxable securities having higher pre-tax yields, including Ambac Assurance (Ambac’s principal operating subsidiary) guaranteed securities, versus the same period in 2010.

Financial Guarantee Loss Reserves

Loss and loss expenses for the fourth quarter of 2011 were $803.6 million as compared to $141.5 million for the three month period ending December 31, 2010. Losses for the three months ended December 31, 2011 were driven by higher estimated losses in the first-lien RMBS and student loan portfolios, partially offset by a decrease in estimated losses for the second-lien RMBS and transportation portfolios and higher projected recoveries under representation and warranty breaches for certain RMBS transactions.

Loss and loss expenses paid, including commutations, net of recoveries from all policies, amounted to $230.3 million during the fourth quarter 2011 versus a $9.6 million net recovery for the same period in 2010. The amount of actual claims paid during each period was impacted by the payment moratorium imposed on March 24, 2010 by the court overseeing the rehabilitation of the segregated account established under Wisconsin law to which Ambac Assurance allocated certain liabilities (the “Segregated Account”). Claims presented to Ambac Assurance and unpaid during the fourth quarter of 2011 amounted to $317.4 million versus $327.6 million during the same period in 2010. Since the establishment of the Segregated Account in March 2010, a total of $2,768.6 million of claims have been presented to Ambac Assurance and remain unpaid due to the moratorium.

Loss reserves (gross of reinsurance and net of subrogation recoveries) for all RMBS insurance exposures as of December 31, 2011 were $4,455.0 million, including $2,760.6 million relating to claims on RMBS exposures that have been presented since March 24, 2010, and unpaid as a result of the claims moratorium. RMBS reserves as of December 31, 2011 are net of $2,720.2 million of estimated remediation recoveries. The estimate of remediation recoveries related to material representation and warranty breaches is up 4.7% from $2,598.3 million reported as of September 30, 2011. Ambac has initiated and will continue to initiate lawsuits and other methods to achieve compliance with the repurchase obligations in the securitization documents with respect to sponsors who disregard their obligations to repurchase.

Loss on Variable Interest Entities

Loss on variable interest entities for the three months ended December 31, 2011 was $265.6 million compared to a loss of $111.8 million for the three month period ending December 31, 2010. The loss on variable interest entities reflects the net impact of consolidating and deconsolidating VIEs combined with the financial results of the VIEs during the period after consolidation. Losses in both quarters were primarily the result of deconsolidating certain transactions during those periods. The losses reflect the impact of re-establishing loss reserves and other financial guarantee insurance accounts which were eliminated while the VIEs were consolidated.

Derivative Products

The derivative products business is currently in run-off. It has been positioned to record gains in a rising interest rate environment in order to provide a hedge against the impact of rising rates on certain exposures within the financial guarantee insurance portfolio. For the current quarter, the derivatives product business produced a net loss of $20.5 million compared to net income of $101.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2010. Results for the fourth quarter of 2011 reflect the impact of mark to market losses in the derivative products portfolio arising from declining interest rates, whereas results for the fourth quarter of 2010 benefitted from rising interest rates during the period.

Underwriting and Operating Expenses

Underwriting and operating expenses declined in the fourth quarter of 2011 to $35.4 million from $55.3 million during the fourth quarter of 2010. The decline in underwriting and operating expenses is primarily related to lower compensation, premises, consulting and legal expenses.

Interest Expense

Interest Expense declined in the fourth quarter of 2011 to $33.1 million from $43.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2010. This decline was attributable to lower interest expense on Ambac’s corporate debt as it ceased to accrue interest on such debt following its bankruptcy filing on November 8, 2010, partially offset by higher accrued interest on Surplus Notes at Ambac Assurance.

Reorganization Items, Net

For purposes of presenting an entity’s financial evolution during a Chapter 11 reorganization, the financial statements for periods including and after filing the Chapter 11 petition distinguish transactions and events that are directly associated with the reorganization from the ongoing operations of the business. Reorganization items in the fourth quarter of 2011 totaled $10.1 million and were primarily related to professional advisory fees. Reorganization items during the fourth quarter of 2010 were $32.0 million and were higher primarily as a result of debt valuation adjustments done during the period.

Balance Sheet and Liquidity

Total assets decreased during the fourth quarter of 2011 to $27.1 billion from $27.6 billion at September 30, 2011, primarily due to declines in the balance of VIE assets, premium receivables, and the value of the investment portfolio.

During the fourth quarter of 2011, the amount of VIE assets fell by $140.6 million to $16.5 billion from $16.7 billion and non-VIE premium receivables declined $74.7 million to $2.0 billion from $2.1 billion. The fair value of the consolidated non-VIE investment portfolio fell by $186.2 million to $6.9 billion (amortized cost of $6.4 billion) as of December 31, 2011 from $7.1 billion (amortized cost of $6.6 billion) as of September 30, 2011.

The financial guarantee non-VIE investment portfolio balance had a fair value of $6.0 billion (amortized cost of $5.6 billion) as of December 31, 2011, down $128.9 million from $6.2 billion (amortized cost of $5.7 billion) at September 30, 2011. The portfolio consists of primarily high quality municipal and corporate bonds, asset backed securities, U.S. Agencies, Agency MBS, as well as non-agency MBS, including Ambac Assurance guaranteed RMBS.

Liabilities subject to compromise totaled approximately $1.7 billion at December 31, 2011. As required by ASC Topic 852, the amount of liabilities subject to compromise represents Ambac’s estimate at December 31, 2011, of known or potential pre-petition claims to be addressed in connection with the Chapter 11 reorganization. As of December 31, 2011, liabilities subject to compromise consist of the following:



















Accrued interest payable












$68,123



Other












17,109



Senior unsecured notes












1,222,189




Directly-issued Subordinated capital securities












400,000



Consolidated liabilities subject to compromise











$1,707.421


















Overview of Ambac Assurance Statutory Results

As of December 31, 2011, Ambac Assurance reported statutory capital and surplus of $495.3 million, up from $273.1 million as of September 30, 2011. Ambac Assurance’s statutory financial statements include the combined results of Ambac Assurance’s general account and the Segregated Account (formed on March 24, 2010). Statutory capital and surplus at December 31, 2011, were positively impacted by the release of $430.3 million of Ambac Assurance’s contingency reserves, offset by a quarterly statutory net loss of $182.6 million.

Ambac Assurance’s claims-paying resources amount to approximately $6.4 billion as of December 31, 2011, down $0.2 billion from $6.6 billion at September 30, 2011. This excludes Ambac Assurance UK Limited’s claims-paying resources of approximately $1.1 billion. The decline in claims paying resources was primarily attributable to net claims paid during the quarter.

Additional information regarding Ambac’s 2011 financial results, including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2011, can be found on Ambac’s website at www.ambac.com under the Investor Relations tab.

Forward-Looking Statements

This release contains statements that may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any or all of management’s forward-looking statements here or in other publications may turn out to be incorrect and are based on Ambac management’s current belief or opinions. Ambac’s actual results may vary materially, and there are no guarantees about the performance of Ambac’s securities. Among events, risks, uncertainties or factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are: (1) a plan of reorganization will not be consummated; (2) if Ambac is not successful in consummating a plan of reorganization under Chapter 11, it is likely it would have to liquidate pursuant to Chapter 7; (3) the impact of the bankruptcy proceeding on the holders of Ambac securities; (4) our dispute with the United States Internal Revenue Service may not be satisfactorily resolved; (5) the unlikely ability of Ambac Assurance to pay dividends to Ambac in the foreseeable future; (6) adverse events arising from the Segregated Account Rehabilitation Proceedings, including the failure of the injunctions issued by the Wisconsin rehabilitation court to protect the Segregated Account and Ambac Assurance from certain adverse actions; (7) litigation arising from the Segregated Account Rehabilitation Proceedings; (8) decisions made by the rehabilitator for the benefit of policyholders may result in material adverse consequences for Ambac’s securityholders; (9) potential of a full rehabilitation proceeding against Ambac Assurance or material changes to the Segregated Account plan of rehabilitation, with resulting adverse impacts; (10) inadequacy of reserves established for losses and loss expenses, including our inability to realize the remediation recoveries or future commutations included in our reserves; (11) adverse developments in our portfolio of insured public finance credits; (12) market risks impacting assets in our investment portfolio or the value of our assets posted as collateral in respect of investment agreements and interest rate swap and currency swap transactions; (13) risks relating to determination of amount of impairments taken on investments; (14) credit and liquidity risks due to unscheduled and unanticipated withdrawals on investment agreements; (15) market spreads and pricing on insured collateralized loan obligations (“CLOs”) and other derivative products insured or issued by Ambac or its subsidiaries; (16) Ambac’s financial position and the Segregated Account Rehabilitation Proceedings may prompt departures of key employees and may impact our ability to attract qualified executives and employees; (17) the risk of litigation and regulatory inquiries or investigations, and the risk of adverse outcomes in connection therewith, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, operations, financial position, profitability or cash flows; (18) credit risk throughout our business, including credit risk related to residential mortgage-backed securities, CLOs, public finance obligations and exposures to reinsurers; (19) default by one or more of Ambac Assurance’s portfolio investments, insured issuers, counterparties or reinsurers; (20) the risk that our risk management policies and practices do not anticipate certain risks and/or the magnitude of potential for loss as a result of unforeseen risks; (21) factors that may influence the amount of installment premiums paid to Ambac, including the continuation of the payment moratorium with respect to claims payments as a result of Segregated Account Rehabilitation Proceedings; (22) changes in prevailing interest rates; (23) the risk of volatility in income and earnings, including volatility due to the application of fair value accounting, required under the relevant derivative accounting guidance, to the portion of our credit enhancement business which is executed in credit derivative form; (24) changes in accounting principles or practices that may impact Ambac’s reported financial results; (25) legislative and regulatory developments; (26) operational risks, including with respect to internal processes, risk models, systems and employees; (27) changes in tax laws, tax disputes and other tax-related risks; (28) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time, and (29) the risks described in the Risk Factors section in Part I, Item 1A of Ambac’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011 and also disclosed from time to time by Ambac in its subsequent reports on Form 10-Q and Form 8-K, which are available on the Ambac website at www.ambac.com and at the SEC’s website, www.sec.gov. Readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and that Ambac does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that arise after the date the statements are made. You are therefore advised to consult any further disclosures we make on related subjects in Ambac’s reports to the SEC.







Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries



Consolidated Balance Sheets



December 31, 2011 and December 31, 2010



(Dollars in Thousands Except Share Data)











































































December 31, 2011







December 31, 2010
































Assets





















































Investments:



























Fixed income securities, at fair value



























(amortized cost of $5,346,897 2011 and $5,424,957 in 2010)













$

5,830,289









$

5,738,125







Fixed income securities pledged as collateral, at fair value



























(amortized cost of $261,958 in 2011 and $120,918 in 2010)















263,530











123,519







Short-term investments (amortized of $783,015 in 2011 and $991,567 in 2010)















783,071











991,567







Other, at cost (approximates fair value)















100











100







Total investments















6,876,990











6,853,311

































Cash















15,999











9,497





Restricted cash and cash equivalents















2,500











2,500





Receivable for securities















38,164











23,505





Investment income due and accrued















45,328











45,066





Premium receivables















2,028,479











2,422,596





Reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses















159,902











136,986





Deferred ceded premium















221,303











264,858





Subrogation recoverable















659,810











714,270





Deferred acquisition costs















223,510











250,649





Loans















18,996











20,167





Derivative assets















175,207











290,299





Other assets















104,300











82,579





Variable interest entity assets:

























Fixed income securities, at fair value















2,199,338











1,904,361





Restricted cash and cash equivalents















2,140











2,098





Investment income due and accrued















4,032











4,065





Loans















14,329,515











16,005,066





Derivative assets















-











4,511





Other assets















8,182











10,729







Total assets













$

27,113,695









$

29,047,113


































Liabilities and Stockholders' Deficit





















































Liabilities:



























Liabilities subject to compromise













$

1,707,421









$

1,695,231







Unearned premiums















3,457,157











4,007,886







Loss and loss expense reserve















7,044,070











5,288,655







Ceded premiums payable















115,555











141,450







Obligations under investment agreements















523,046











767,982







Obligations under investment repurchase agreements















23,500











37,650







Current taxes















95,709











22,534







Long-term debt















223,601











208,260







Accrued interest payable















170,169











61,708







Derivative liabilities















414,508











348,791







Other liabilities















107,441











124,748







Payable for securities purchased















1,665











-







Variable interest entity liabilities:



























Accrued interest payable















3,490











3,425







Long-term debt















14,288,540











16,101,026







Derivative liabilities















2,087,052











1,580,120







Other liabilities















304











11,875







Total liabilities















30,263,228











30,401,341

































Stockholders' deficit:

























Ambac Financial Group, Inc.:



























Preferred stock















-











-







Common stock















3,080











3,080







Additional paid-in capital















2,172,027











2,187,485







Accumulated other comprehensive income















463,259











291,774







Accumulated deficit















(6,039,922

)









(4,042,335

)





Common stock held in treasury at cost















(411,419

)









(448,540

)





Total Ambac Financial Group, Inc. stockholders' deficit















(3,812,975

)









(2,008,536

)































Non-controlling interest















663,442











654,308







Total stockholders' deficit















(3,149,533

)









(1,354,228

)





Total liabilities and stockholders' deficit













$

27,113,695









$

29,047,113

































Number of shares outstanding (net of treasury shares)















302,428,811











302,123,710












































Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries



Consolidated Statements of Operations



For the Three Months and Years Ended December 31, 2011 and 2010



(Dollars in Thousands Except Share Data)























































































































































Three Months Ended





Years Ended















December 31,





December 31,















2011





2010





2011





2010



Revenues:



































































Net premiums earned











$

112,845







$

110,654







$

405,970







$

545,975





Net investment income













91,988









75,269









354,790









358,563





Other-than-temporary impairment losses:

































Total other-than-temporary impairment losses













(51,179

)







(12,398

)







(90,356

)







(65,183

)



Portion of loss recognized in other comprehensive income













17,514









1,094









26,513









5,380





Net other-than temporary impairment losses recognized in earnings













(33,665

)







(11,304

)







(63,843

)







(59,803

)





































Net realized investment gains













12,341









6,100









20,466









159,451







































Change in fair value of credit derivatives:

































Realized gains (losses) and other settlements













3,625









4,885









17,001









(2,757,624

)



Unrealized gains













24,518









10,844









31,031









2,817,807





Net change in fair value of credit derivatives













28,143









15,729









48,032









60,183





Derivative product revenues













(20,456

)







100,987









(280,818

)







(106,565

)



Net mark-to-market losses on non-trading derivatives













-









-









-









(14,295

)





































Other (loss) income













(7,023

)







5,328









25,535









107,314





Loss on variable interest entities













(265,604

)







(111,815

)







(214,368

)







(616,688

)





































Total revenues













(81,431

)







190,948









295,764









434,135







































Expenses:



































































Loss and loss expenses













803,648









141,488









1,859,455









719,362





Underwriting and operating expenses













35,445









55,339









141,305









254,465





Interest expense













33,088









43,575









128,092









181,329







































Total expenses before reorganization items













872,181









240,402









2,128,852









1,155,156







































Pre-tax loss from continuing operations before reorganization items













(953,612

)







(49,454

)







(1,833,088

)







(721,021

)





































Reorganization items, net













10,067









31,980









49,861









31,980







































Pre-tax loss from continuing operations













(963,679

)







(81,434

)







(1,882,949

)







(753,001

)





































(Benefit) provision for income taxes













(481

)







85









77,422









135







































Net loss













(963,198

)







(81,519

)







(1,960,371

)







(753,136

)





































Less: net income attributable to noncontrolling interest













15









76









60









63







































Net loss attributable to Ambac Financial Group, Inc.













($963,213

)







($81,595

)







($1,960,431

)







($753,199

)







































































Net loss per share attributable to Ambac Financial Group, Inc.

































common shareholders













($3.18

)







($0.27

)







($6.48

)







($2.56

)





































Net loss per diluted share attributable to Ambac Financial Group, Inc.

































common shareholders













($3.18

)







($0.27

)







($6.48

)







($2.56

)







































































Weighted average number of common shares outstanding:



































































Basic













302,467,253









302,191,620









302,439,299









294,423,698







































Diluted













302,467,253









302,191,620









302,439,299









294,423,698


























































Source: Ambac Financial Group, Inc.

Ambac Financial Group, Inc.
Michael Fitzgerald, 212-208-3222
mfitzgerald@ambac.com




© 2011 Ambac Assurance Corp.
 
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