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Tausend Dank an Finnegan23, der gestern dieses Interview mit Dr. Wernle führte und auf dem RB Board gepostet hat: Ok, interview with Dr. Wernle, 1/5 (introduction) This is a transcript of an interview (by phone) with Dr. Michael Wernle, CEO Nanopierce GmbH I conducted today (08/27/01). Dr. Wernle has sacrificed 2 hours of his time for it (so did I, but mine is cheaper *smile*) It is divided into 5 parts: 1 (introduction), 2 (Open House, Dr. Wernle`s attitude towards the message boards, share price), 3 (technology), 4 (contracts, revenue, future prospects), 5 (conclusion and abstract). I recorded it and am trying to mirror just the facts. But please keep in mind a few things: - This interview was conducted in German (of course). I tried to translate it as accurate as possible but I am not a professional interpreter, just an average guy with his school English - so PLEASE do NOT try to read anything between the lines. If you do so and find something, it will most probably be due to my poor translation and not to Dr. Wernle`s intentions! Look for the big picture instead. - As I said, it was a 2 hours-conversation. So of course the talk went here and there and back again. . . I summarized a lot of it and I rearranged a lot of it. Things quoted here in my transcript are not necessarily in chronological order like they have been discussed in the original interview. This, btw, is journalism.... - I did not add anything. I left out a few things because they are not important IMO or because Dr. Wernle asked me to do so. - Feel free to discuss this interview and to quote it (also in excerpts), but please do not ALTER anything. I wish to keep it FACTS. Anything in Italic is a question or an remark from me. Thanx F. http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=NPCT&rea… Dr. Wernle, what do the RB members need to know about the Open House? I want to ask you a favour: Anyone who has not sent an application form yet should do so. There are some posters who want to attend but we don`t know their real names so we can`t tell if they have applied yet. Anyone reading this: Just apply per email or fax. Of course no one needs to tell us the RB alias, we don`t want to know this, we just need to plan... seats, lunch, and so on. How many applications have you received so far? Up today, 76. And that`s about the maximum capacity. But everyone is invited, there is no limit and no deadline. We just ask everyone to send us a short notice - fax or email. Who will be attending the Open House? Mostly share holders and press people. And of course our partners like Elcos and Simotech. Any customers? I don`t think so. We will meet the customers before and after the OH. Some of them still want to keep things confidential and it`s simply impossible to talk two or three hours to customers during the OH for Paul, Herb and myself. This would be extremely disrespectful towards our guests. "Nanopierce in practice" by Mr. Maier and Mr. Kober is no longer on the agenda. A self-evident conclusion would be: There are technical problems...? Not at all! The reason why we included this in the speaker`s list was simple: We did not know exactly what our partners intend to speak about and we wanted to make sure our guests get an impression of the current state of our technology. This is no longer necessary now, as almost every speaker has included the practical aspects of NCS in his talk. For the doubters, if there are any, we will show active and fully functionable samples in our laboratory. I was told you will have an interpreter at the OH? Yes, many of our guests will come from abroad, mostly from the U.S., so there will be a simultaneous translation and of course a radio transmission for our English speaking guests. Many companies are staging their OH at a hotel or congression center. You have told us you will reach your maximum with 100 guests or so. What prevented you from simply renting some space in one of the bigger hotels? Well... there still are people who don`t believe we have facilities at all. We did not want them to think "ah, an hotel, guess, there is no lab to show, it`s just a fake". We will show everything we are able to without giving away our company secrets. But you are right: This will be the last time we can do so. There are only a few thousand share holders world wide now. Next year things will be different and there will be way too many share holders to show every one of them what we are doing. Dr. Wernle, please tell us if you are aware of the discussions on the message boards and give me your personal opinion about them... Of course we are following the message boards. For example, I am surprised by the high level of discussion on the Nanotechinvestor board (this is a German board, manfred is the boss there - F.). We watch the other boards, too. Many things which are discussed there are just nonsense. We keep asking ourselves why no one just picks up the phone and gives us a call - most of the questions could be cleared up within one minute. It`s that easy: The US people have their contact persons, the Germans have their`s. I`d really wish people would talk less and call us more often. But we are quite amazed at the fact how deep people are digging. I tell you something interesting: Most of the links posted on the Raging Bull board are in no way connected to our company. But from time to time it is very interesting for us, we learn from this of companies we have not thougt of yet, we get new ideas... Sometimes, at lunch, we talk about some link..... My "favorites list" is still growing, and the boards keep contributing to it. I am amazed at the time people are contributing to this company. Sometimes we are getting really angry at what some people are posting. But there is no way for us to clarify things for two different reasons: First of all, this is a legal problem. A company`s CEO must not answer accusations on a message board. Second, it is a practical problem: If we answered, we would drown in the discussion following... I can only ask every interested person to call us... The share price seems to be artificially depressed, at least that`s the impression I have. I can`t tell you anything about that and I don`t want to. But I know you can play games with the shares of many companies because their business plan is not intact or they have no business at all if you watch close. What I do know is that this will not work with Nanopierce. The design-in phase takes it`s time because we are doing business in an area which makes it impossible to come up with results quickly. But believe me, we have our Business Plan and we are ticking off one item after the other. It may seem to take long, but we are very persistent and things are on schedule or even ahead of it. It could be a tight race anyway... Are you running out of money? No, not at all. We are having enough money, not only for this year, but for 2002 also. Any attempt to keep the share price depressed, won`t succeed. It would mean fighting the windmills. In the long run no one will be able to prevent our stock from running up. This is my true conviction. There are a few people who keep sawing on the Nanopierce branch, for what reason ever. I know this. But we are sitting on the side near the trunk and they are sitting on the wrong side. Maybe they don`t know - I do. But you won`t object when one says NPCT is still a risky investment? There is no guarantee. If you want to buy something for your retirement arrangement, you should by Deutsche Telekom. (German Telekom shares are under heavy pressure at present because of very heavy institutional selling from Hutchison Whampoa and Sonera, F.) But the risk with NPCT is no more high. It has been high in 1999 and during the first half of 2000. Now things are looking extremely well. As an investor I would worry if Paul Metzinger, Herb Neuhaus and me would leave the company - but this won`t happen. Even if only one of us stayed with the company it would not be an unsurmountable problem. Many don`t see there is an outstanding team now, it is working very well. Did you know Paul, Herb and me don`t ever get on the same plane? Like the President of the USA and his vice president? Yes. We had an appointment, not too long ago in.... well, it doesn`t matter where, but Herb took a different plane. ? Yes, I am serious. http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=NPCT&rea… part 2/5 (contracts, revenue) There are many questions about revenue. Where will this company get revenue from at all? We will live on volume. And the volume is just huge. 1.9 billions of smart cards will be produced this year. That`s a 300 million more than in 2000. We have no need to replace existing technologies - we can profit from growth alone. A certain market share will be more than enough to turn Nanopierce into a very profitable and very big company. What is "a certain market share"? Look at Dell. They are the #1 PC manufacturer. Their market share is 12.8 percent. I would not say they are a small company. Will we live to see the day when NCS is a connection standard? There will never be a "standard" in the packaging industry in my opinion. This sector is way too complex. There are fields we can`t cover. Automotive chips and airplane chips are examples. Connections must have a life cycle of 15 years or more there. We won`t aim at this. Not now, at least. What are the markets you are aiming at? Our big advantage is that our markets and our products already exist. We don`t have to invent business models and products, we don`t need to convince anyone that there is a demand for NCS. The semiconductor business is well established but it urgently needs some economization. It is a well known technology and everyone is seeking desperately for a possibility to manufacture things cheaper. This is where we come in. There has been some confusion: How much is the worth of a single connection? And how much cheaper is NCS? It depends. For a normal chip you can charge 0.8 up to 1 cent per single wire connection. Assume you can save 25% with NCS. With 4 to 8 connections this means 1 or 2 cents per chip. This would mean 1 million dollars per 100 million connections. 1 million dollars isn`t much. But for some applications 100 million chips isn`t much either. One single fab of a big chip manufacturer produces 15 billion chips per year. But Nanopierce is just a packaging, not a manufacturing technology? Most people are not aware of the fact the packaging accounts for 70% of the worth of a chip. Therefore the cost pressure is immense. If you can offer 25% or just 10% savings potential, this is HUGE. Some day you need real customers. What can you tell us about the feedback from potential clients? You must know that Marketing & Sales Dep. is in Munich so I am very well aware of the developments in this area. What I can say is: we are on track. But one must never forget we are not producing websites - we could easily come up with results within five weeks or so if we did... But this technology needs time. We are not able to impress investors with immediate results after a few weeks. This is difficult and I am very well aware of it, but it means an advantage, also: It means an important barrier to any competitor, because it is very difficult to make a company big under these circumstances. It is even very, very difficult to make a company survive if you need a certain time frame to develop your products under deteriorating market conditions. I have to add we never would have been able to achieve our growth, not even our survival without Paul (Metzinger). Another advantage is the "exit barrier". Any customer who uses NCS won`t abolish it frivolously. I know a few production managers. They don`t change their production easily. Not in, not out. Many people are just waiting for revenue, nothing else. When will we see significant revenues from Nanopierce? It will grow step by step. No big manufacturer will reorganize his complete production just because he is convinced our product is great. We don`t recommend this by the way. He will start with converting one single line. If he is smart, he will not start with a new product but with a product he has been producing before and he knows very well. He will wait for complaints from his customers. If there are none he will convert more and more production lines. This is when our revenues will grow exponentially. What are your targets? There has been some confusion: Smartcards, LEDs, Waferpierce? At present we are aiming at small chips with few contacts because pricing pressure is highest here. This is where we start, we are doing our homework, we will earn big money. We have many ideas for many years, but this is where we start - we need some revenue first. Let`s assume a manufacturer can save 1 cent per connection. What will NPCT receive? We will always ask for our "fair share" but this depends. I can`t imagine anything as a price list. For example: There are manufacturers which have tried to manufacture a new product with existing technology but have failed. If NCS makes it possible, we would charge them a lot higher than .... let`s say Intel. I did not say we are in negotiations with Intel. Another one: License or manufacturing? A crucial one, anyway: Where is the bigger revenue? We will concentrate on licensing. We will make wafer deposition, but when volume becomes bigger I guess we will realize it at the manufacturer`s fab. There are crucial advantages: The manufacturer needs to invest almost NOTHING. You would be scared if you knew how cheap it is... revenue will decrease, but profits will rise, because we will be able to reduce costs significantly. It will be just a license and we will write a bill. Oh, yes, we will have to pay an accountant every three months to check the balance - but we can handle that... Do you plan to hire more staff? I don`t think so, not at present. We have reached a point where we are able to degenerate revenue growth and growth in staff. With our new wetbench in Colorado Springs we are able to produce 1000 wafers per month with one worker in one shift - this will be sufficient for now. And licensing doesn`t mean: You have one sales manager producing 1 million revenue, you need two managers for another million. It`s just one more bill... This sounds perfect. But when will we see real revenues? You have to understand it takes it`s time. It`s not like you sign a contract and receive any money soon. It takes at least 2 to 3 months in this sector: Assume you have signed a contract. The manufacturer still has to get rid of his "old" product. Then you have to implement the new technology. Then he will manufacture a new product. After this he will sell it. He will wait for complaints. After this he will pay you. This means you won`t see many sales in the balance sheets of Nanopierce for the 3rd and even the 4th quarter of 2001. We will have contracts, but you won`t see the numbers. But this will just be a matter of time. It may not come as soon as many are hoping for it, yes. Just one single announcement of a contract could make everyone happy. Will we see anything like this soon? We are still testing. Imagine a really big company testing - I just say, imagine. Imagine the test results are really great. They will never state this publicly because they will never tell their rivals they have found something new, cheaper, faster, more reliable. Nanopierce in turn will have to remain silent - we are not big enough to change the rules. But you could announce: We have a big customer, he signed a contract? Yes, we could. But all we could say is "Test results have been superb, the customer is happy, he signed a contract, but we won`t tell you the conditions and we won`t even tell you who the customer is". This would provoke all the same fear and doubt we already know. We may even sign a contract with a big company and the public will never get to know who he was- it will be just revenue in the quarterly. This sounds strange: A publicly listed company never being able to tell who their customers are in public? We know we have to make announcements. But at the same time we know have to remain silent - and this is difficult. One possibility we think of is the following: You must know there is a certain procedure in this business: interest. talks. cooperation. tests. evaluation of the technology. evaluation of marketing the technology. purchase orders. revenue. profit. A solution we have in mind is to tell share holders we have a cooperation agreement - this is an important milestone. We may not be able to tell anyone about further negotiations. But when our share holders have seen a "cooperation" turning into revenue 2 or 3 times in the quarterly reports we are hoping they will trust in the companies ability to do so. We know if we have supplied evidence for this one or two quarters things will become much more easier. Well, this is not exactly what many of your share holders are waiting for... I know that many will hate to hear the following, but I can bear with displeased investors much better than I can bear with displeased customers right now. It`s all about trust and confidence. If you let your customers down only once you`re done. There are many examples for this on the Nasdaq or the German Neuer Markt. You might think of the semicon world as big - it is a small village. And Nanopierce for sure does not want to be the inhabitant everyone is gossiping about. Revenue would`nt be bad anyway... Believe me, I could generate some revenue within the next quarterly... one IBM warehouseman WILL order something - this is how many companies generate their references, by the way. But if I have one belief it is one word: sustainability. I don`t want revenue fast and one time. I don`t want the share price to be high next year, even if this is hard to accept. I want the share price to be high over the next few years. We will be measured by our dividend some day and I know we will be able to pay a ridiculously high dividend. We have plenty of good ideas and we will be very big but we will need big revenues for some years. We have seen what happens to companies whose revenues slump - they never come back. I want to increase revenue step by step and I want to stay on top. If we succeed we won`t have a problem to realize more, much more lofty goals. (part 4 to follow) http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=NPCT&rea… part 4/5 (technology) 3?4?5? what the h3ll do I know? *lol* There are still concerns: Can you tell us wholeheartedly this technology is working? Without any restriction: Yes. Our samples have been performing just perfect during our tests. We are now testing them in a really invidious manner at extremely high temperatures - and they still are keeping it up. They are doing even better than we ever expected. This could still be a technology which is a perfect idea but no one needs or buys. Are you sure you passed this stage? We have never been there. Otherwise Paul, Herb and me had never went aboard. I always have been sure about it: This is something special, it will work and it will be worth the risk. Are you are sure you can SELL it? Yes. 100%. More than ever. Many people haven`t understood what we really do. Electroless Waferpiercing has been a big step. Usually one must do the electroplating with electricity. This bears significant disadvantages. Now we are able to do it by a chemical procedure. I ain`t sure everybody knows what big advantage this means. It`s all Waferpiercing now. Have you put the Smartcards and LEDs on hold now? That`s a big misunderstanding and I am glad you are asking: Waferpierce is not all a competition to LED and Smartcard. The latter are applications of NCS. I admit we may have mentioned the applications too often but the sole purpose has been to tell people what you can use Waferpiercing for... There IS something else, by the way, but it is something completely different: Ultra thin printed circuits (we can substantiate reflowing) and NCS on thin metal parts, e.g. on test sockets. But our test results with Waferpiercing have been overwhelming and so we decided to go for it now. I have learned NCS is cheaper and better than anything else in the market. This is too good to be true. Could you give us an example? It`s not only about cheap. One example: If you have many very small devices on a circuit board, you currently have to solder them and then the board goes to the reflow oven. If one of the devices is flawy you have to throw away the board. And you can only test after 35 minutes. With NCS you can solder the components and test them immediately. If there is a flawy one you can still replace it while the adhesive is soft. This means: Less time, less scrap. This is convincing to say the least. Lead-free must be a big opportunity for NPCT? No, not as big as some people suppose. We`re not here for displacement of other technologies. And we won`t go after the automotive and airplanes market for now. One advantage is, we ARE lead-free and there won`t be any problems with NCS at a later date. So, please tell us about your manufacturing process after all? I sense many people haven`t understood yet we won`t go into manufacturing chips or anything else. We are refining products we are receiving from customers. Thence it is funny sometimes to read on a board "there is a new chip from Infineon, is NPCT involved in it?" We are in the packaging business, not in the chip business. There may be one exception: Smartlabels. This is the only product I can think of we may manufacture. It is a very promising market and our reasons to produce them are as well historic as driven by know-how and connections. (part 4/5 to follow.. 5? darned, got mixed up *smile*) http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=NPCT&rea… 4.5/5 *smile* (future prospects) What concerns many investors: Will we get any proof soon? This month? This year? There will be announcements this year, yes. Maybe not figures, but significant news. Anyone who is able to read them will see what is about to come - maybe some will shrug it off but this is not important to me. I like one comparison very much: Look at the sea. You can`t see nothing but a few small waves. Then suddenly they are getting closer the beach and they are becoming a crusher. No one knows where it came from. But everyone could have seen it. It was a huge amount of water. And it had been there all the time. Some see it, some don`t. Is there one single day you are looking for? Will it build gradually? Perhaps a new marketing manager will join and everybody will say "oh, well, he did it, finally", perhaps we may install an COO and it will be the trigger for an instant rise of the share price. Whatever it will be: In reality it will be the harvest of long and hard work. One just has to wait. But I know waiting is difficult for investors, yes. This is quite sassy, but could you give us any prediction of a fair share price? As I said, I am following the boards and I am pretty staggered what many people expect, no, not WHAT they expect but within which time frame. Much of this is unrealistic. But what I want to mark is: Many share holders are waiting desperately for $4 to make it to the Nasdaq. But $4 is not $8 and is not $15. $4 is an important interstation for us, but just an interstation. We will go far beyond. It just takes time, but I know this is hard to sustain. One last question: Technology is evolving, faster and faster. Give me a reason NPCT will still be there in 2003? That`s a simple one: The necessity of connecting electronic components has been existant for more than 100 years now. And it will be there 100 years from now. No matter how small, how sophisticated the components get - you will have to connect them. Connections are never going to be superfluous. And IF you need to connect something, Nanopierce is an excellent position.. This may sound ridiculous but you raised my hopes for early retirement. This is what we are working for, believe it or not. This may sound ridiculous to YOU, but we have yet treasured a few items for our own museum. We are just looking for a show-case. http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=NPCT&rea… 5/5 (abstract, conclusion) I won`t provide an abstract in detail. I think the interview speaks for itself and I guess any discussion on the RB board will be the best abstract. I am quite aware of the fact it may add fuel to the fire for a few bashers but I did not want to leave anything out (I`m still hoping objectivity pays off). I rarely added anything personal to the transcript, so I may add a few words here: - Dr. Wernle did not sound excited, he did not sound optimistic, he did sound CONVINCED. - I called Friday and asked for this interview and we talked 2 hours today (Monday). He did not try to convince me of anything, we just talked, he answered my questions and contributed a tremendous amount of sheer information. I have talked to many officials from tech-companies before but have rarely met someone being so ..... relaxed *smile* (beg pardon). - The real world is out there in Colorado Springs and in Munich. Any attempt to bash this company only succeeds if one ONLY lives within the virtual reality of a message board (don`t get me wrong: I don`t want to live without it...). - For me, Nanopierce is just a small company now... Smaller than one might imagine, but much more promising as we imagine. Maybe we won`t see $100/share for 5 years. But this company is for real and there are GREAT things to come. JMHBERO (© Geoff), but it takes a lot more than "IIIIIhhhhhhh.... CEO ..... racketeering" to convince me of the opposite. - Want to relax? Call your CEO (well, JUST DO IT!!!) - I won`t sell a single share until I see Paul Metzinger, Dr. Wernle and Herb Neuhaus in ONE cab heading for the airport *g* - It seems we need some more patience. If you don`t have any patience left - well... Best regards Finnegan >>>>>>>>>>> KLASSE!!!! Hold NPCT and prosper Jetsia
aus der Diskussion:	NPCT Nanopierce Technologies WKN 916132 Thread V
Autor (Datum des Eintrages):	jetsia dax  (28.08.01 07:25:32)
Beitrag:	27 von 329 (ID:4296947)
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