RPT - IMF economists warn of `significant danger` of global recession - FT
(repeating item run late yesterday)
BUENOS AIRES (AFX) - Economists at the International Monetary Fund have warned of a "significant danger" of a global recession along the lines of the early 1980s and early 1990s, the Financial Time reported on its website.
Quoting a leaked draft version of the IMF`s World Economic Outlook, obtained by Financial Times Deutschland, the FT said the focus of the IMF`s concern is the outlook for the US.
It said although the IMF forecasters have not changed the prediction made in April that the US will grow by 1.5 pct this year and 2.5 pct next year, they see a serious risk of a much worse outcome.
If US productivity growth is less than expected, then stock markets could fall, triggering sharp declines in business investment and private consumption, the FT said.
That would cause a global recession, and possibly what the economists describe as "substantial financial market turbulence", including "a possible abrupt decline in the value of the dollar".
The impact of that combination of global recession and market turbulence might be particularly severe for developing countries, the FT said.
It said the IMF`s economists argue that the impact of a US recession on the world economy would be made more severe by the weakness of the economies of Japan and Europe.
The FT quoted IMF economists as saying they believe it is "likely" that the Japanese economy has slipped back into recession. They forecast the economy will shrink by 0.2 pct this year, before growing by just 0.6 pct next year.
The IMF economists call on Japan to "move aggressively" to loosen monetary policy, even if this leads to a further fall in the yen, and not to move too rapidly to tighten fiscal policy, the FT said.
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