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Enorme Chancen nach CVC Kooperation: DIe Details UOB KayHian: Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) CVC: Knight In Shining Armour With Ability To Generate Shareholder Return We view the deal between CVC and MAPI positively on the back of: a) lower interest cost, which is expected to boost MAPI’s 2015 net income by fourfold yoy, b) operational improvement leading to potential value creation as CVC has delivered fivefold return post acquiring LPPF, c) listing of MAP as a catalyst to MAPI, d) gradual recovery in F&B beverage business beyond 24 months, and e) attractive P/B valuation. WHAT’S NEW • Potential investment by CVC. MAPI announced a deal with CVC, the former controlling shareholder of LPPF. First, MAPI will issue a 5-year Rp1.5t bond to CVC at 0% interest. Second, MAPI will inject its operations in sports (Sport Station, Planet Sports, Reebok, Adidas), golf (Golf House, Top Golf, Pro Golf), kids (Kidz Station), Payless shoes and garment manufacturing into MAP Aktif Adi Perkasa (MAP). Third, CVC will be given an option to convert the Rp1.5t loan into 30% of MAP. Finally, there could be a listing of MAP in 4-5 years’ time. • Immediate impact: Lower interest cost and consensus expects potential 400%+ yoy growth in 2015 net income. In 2014, MAPI chalked up debt of Rp1,567b and the zero-interest bond will be used to repay outstanding loans. MAPI paid Rp381.9b in interest cost in 2014 and the immediate impact of this ransaction will be the elimination of MAPI’s interest cost and increase profit. Assuming a 25% tax rate, MAPI’s 2014 net income of Rp74.1b could have risen to Rp360.5b, a 486.5% yoy increase. • CVC delivered multi-baggers return in LPPF. CVC has a positive track record with Matahari Department Store (LPPF) and Linknet (LINK). CVC purchased LPPF on 25 Jan 10 at a market cap equivalent of US$850b. After growing net profit from Rp624.5b in 2010 to Rp1,419b in 2014, LPPF has grown to become a US$4.3b company, a five-folds return in four years. CVC’s investment in LINK was done at market cap equivalent of US$808m on 11 Jun 11 and its market capitalisation today is US$1.4b. • Impact on other divisions within MAPI. The investment by CVC could translate into operational improvement, better working capital management and margin improvement. MAPI told us the knowledge brought in by CVC (inventory management, merchandising, working capital management, store efficiency, store presentation) could be applied in other divisions within MAPI, such as fashion and food & beverage. Operations not fully recovered. MAPI’s operations have yet to recover. In 1Q15, sales grew 12-13% yoy, same-store sales grew 6-7% yoy and heavy discounts are still being offered. Burger King and Domino are still suffering losses of Rp60b. Fortunately, the elimination of interest cost could push 2015 net income higher and the partial sale of Burger King could lower the losses. RISKS • A rupiah depreciation to raise COGS and higher prices lead to lower sales volume. • Earnings miss in 2015. VALUATION • 2016F PE on a par with retail sector’s. Based on Bloomberg consensus, MAPI is trading at 32.3x 2015F PE and 19.3x 2016F PE. Valuation appears high because of the recent heavy discounting due to inventory mismanagement but MAPI is trading near 1SD below in terms of P/B. In term of 2016F PE, MAPI is trading on a par with that of Indonesia’s retail sector. Quelle: http://www.utrade.com.hk/en/regional-morning-notes/20150408.… |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Wohin geht die Wachstumsreise? |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | rendel (18.04.15 13:17:33) |
| Beitrag: | 25 von 25 (ID:49594676) |
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