[posting]60008408[/posting]nochmal zu NTVA - immer interessant den cc zu lesen - hier mal einer kurz und knackig.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4242294-invitae-nvta-ceo-se…
zu ausblick:
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Collections early in the year will be lowers as our Medicare rates have reset down 10%. And our expenses will go up early in the year since annual costs on big ticket items occur in the first quarter. Additionally, our personnel costs will increase. The full effect of bringing on employees late last year and early this year in sales and R&D to hit our aggressive volume and revenue growth goals will impact the first quarter
Our 2019 guidance is more than 500,000 samples expected for the year, generating revenue of more than $220 million. As is our practice, we guide to what is within our line of sight. However, as we introduce new products, it's hard to predict how quickly volume will grow and reimbursement will flow. This guidance does anticipate a mix exchange, which includes an increase in reproductive testing volume as well as modest volumes from our new patient initiated testing channel.
Anmerkung: spricht dafür Q1 abzuwarten und von den Enttäuschten einzusammeln.
CEO: 2 und 4 Q stärker, v.a. das 4te.
zusätzlich upside wäre eine stärkere übernahme durch medicare:
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As many of you may have heard, the coverage group at CMS indicated in early January that it interprets the foundation medicine NCD, as limiting Medicare reimbursement of germline cancer testing to late stage cancer patients. Leading patient advocacy groups, professional societies, and industry groups, including Invitae have expressed the view that this is a mistake. We're optimistic that this will be resolved in a way that reflects the contribution of germline testing to cancer patients among the Medicare population.
an grundsätzlichem Optimismus herrscht jedenfalls kein Mangel
:In challenging the traditional approaches of high price niche market testing, we have demonstrated that we can rapidly gain share, take advantage of a price elasticity to grow the market, and most importantly, increase the number of patients that will have genetic information put to use for their benefit. We've demonstrated our ability to drive the company toward profitability, dramatically reducing burn by managing volume, revenue, COGS, and OpEx, and while the trajectory of the business is more than compelling, we are truly just scratching the surface in terms of our long-term growth potential. We fully intend to reach 1 million people in 2020 alone, and one day, billions of people on the planet.