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Jefferies-Potential Beat On Growing Q1 Vascepa Sales - Debate on Expectations $30 target Price Potential Beat On Growing Q1 Vascepa Sales - Debate on Expectations Michael J. Yee, Andrew Tsai, Kelechi Chikere, Ph.D., Arshad Haider April 24, 2019 Key Takeaway AMRN could report Q1 EPS results in the first week of May and we note IMS scripts have reached all-time highs over the past 9 of 10 weeks, tracking to perhaps ~$75-80M and possibly well above consensus $67M (4 ests). 2019 guidance of $350M would then look conservative and too low. For 2019, we are above at $385M and above cons $365M and guidance could eventually move higher towards our estimate. Insights Weekly scripts appear to reach record highs, setting up AMRN for a pot'l Q1 sales beat Despite management cautioning to expect seasonality in Q1, scripts are up +16% Q/Q (accelerated even more than the +13-15% in Q4) - appearing to track to ~$75-80M in Q1 vs cons $67M (4 ests) and Jefferies at $79M. Historically, Vascepa sales have declined in Q1 over the past couple of years, but we see an increase this year instead due to 1) major new CVOT data during Q4 now published in the NEJM, 2) huge salesforce increase to 400 from 150 recently, and 3) positive doc channel checks suggesting reimbursement has not been much issue. We also note Q4 reported sales were even higher than third-party data (+40% vs +13%) suggesting Q1 IMS script data could be inaccurate (under-capturing) as well although management recently confirmed weekly scripts are tracking fairly accurately to AMRN's internal datapoints. Bigger picture, 2019 guidance of $350M appears conservative and only suggests an $80M+$85M+$90M+$95M trajectory (i.e. modest growth), even though sales grew by a whopping $20M+ Q/Q to $77M in Q4. Additional Q1 dynamics and thoughts We acknowledge some buysiders think a beat is already expected given third-party data is available though we argue confirming these strong results after last quarters doubt (huge beat in Q4) would be positive and it means consensus is going up. We also understand the stock has been in a trading range from teens to low $20s and investors seem to want to debate "M&A takeout or bust" more than anything with bears saying no takeout until litigation is settled and FDA label expansion confirmed. Our estimated $79M in Q1 considers 1) a +9% price increase Dec 2018, 2) offset by increased gross to net typical of Q1, and 3) higher capture of 75% vs 72% for Q4 to be conservative. We can derive Q1 sales of ~$80M were we to assume a G2N of 55% (vs 50% for other quarters). Alternatively, adjusting the capture to historical of 83% (our est) would yield Q sales closer to the $70-75M range, which would still be above consensus estimates of $67M. Our doctors consistently provide positive feedback on Vascepa Anecdotally, docs inform us they have "accelerated their prescriptions" post the Nov 2018 AHA conference. The LDL increase in the placebo arm (mineral oil) has not deterred docs from prescribing Vascepa. From our NYC Doc Panel day last month, post the data, one doc increased his prescriptions by 3x-4x to 10/month, while the other doctor now prescribes it several times a month. The latter was formerly not a strong believer in triglyceride (TG) therapies unless patients exceeded the >500mg/dL threshold, but he now envisions his overall usage for "elevated" TG patients to increase as he becomes more familiar and comfortable and reimbursement has been easy. Company Description Amarin Corporation Amarin Corporation, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland and Bedminster, New Jersey is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the commercialization and development of therapeutics to improve cardiovascular health. Amarin's approved drug, Vascepa, is an ultra-pure, EPA-only, omega-3 fatty acid, oral product for the treatment of severe high triglycerides and mixed dyslipidemia. The company’s cardiovascular programs capitalize on Amarin's expertise in the field of lipid science and the known therapeutic benefits of essential fatty acids in treating cardiovascular disease. AMRN reported a positive REDUCE-IT CVOT result in September 2018. Company Valuation/Risks Amarin Corporation Our $30 PT is DCF-based. Risks: clinical, regulatory, a |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Amarin - The Science Of Lipid Therapy |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | Magnetfeldfredy (25.04.19 10:10:00) |
| Beitrag: | 504 von 1,840 (ID:60419847) |
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