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Adoption Rate Continues to Grow
Less than 6 months into its launch in the United States, the commercialisation of
ReCell continues to gather momentum at a faster rate than we had anticipated. There
are now 98 hospitals in the US either ordering or in evaluation of the Recell kits. This
represents approximately 70% of the specialist burns units in the country. By the end
of the year we expect the vast majority of these will have ordered product.
The recent American Burns Association Conference featured ten presentations
sponsored by Avita including a summary of the health economics for hospitals using
ReCell compared to the standard of care (SOC). The paper confirmed significant
savings to hospital operators in the treatment of burns patients. The savings are
estimated at between 14% to 17% per patient (across all burn sizes), with savings
increased for more severe burns requiring longer stays in hospital. This data is
compelling for value analysis committees and more than justifies the US$7,500 list
price for the ReCell kit. The major savings come from reduced volume of surgical
procedures per patient, reduced length of stay and reduced rehabilitation costs.
Finally, the company’s clinical program is advancing. A recent interim analysis of
Recell use in a paediatric population was awarded ‘Best Of The Best Abstract’ at the
American Burns Association Conference. In the study of 107 burn injuries, 98%
achieved closure within 4 weeks of treatment. This data is likely to be included in the
data dossier to extend the label claim for Recell to include children. The company will
begin enrolling patients in additional paediatric studies later this year.
Upgrade to Buy, Valuation raised to $0.68
The commercialisation of Recell is progressing well in the US and consequently we
have upgraded our unit sales forecast for FY21. We have also extended our
discounted cash flow model to 9 years. Valuation in raised to $$0.68 from $0.38 and
we upgrade our recommendation to Buy Speculative (from Hold)


Each account represents an individual hospital rather than a health care system or group.
The company had previously signalled its intention to target Burn Centres, hence it is not
unreasonable to assume most of the target accounts will specialise in the treatment of
burns. Collectively there are 98 hospitals across all three categories representing 70% of
the 134 specialist burns centres in the US.
The vast majority of accounts in the ‘prospecting’ stage are expected to proceed to Value
Analysis Committee (VAC).
We note a total of 45 burn accounts (including 106 burn surgeons) have been trained
relative to the 28 active accounts (i.e. ordering product). The difference between the
number of accounts trained vs ordering is most likely because 17 of the hospitals that have
received training are at Value Analysis Committee – i.e. normally surgeons have to be
trained in the use of the product and gain experience with its use prior to proposing a new
device to the VAC.
The key take out being that interest in the use of the ReCell system continues to grow.
These statistics are supportive of expectations for future sales growth. For surgeons, the
key driver of use is the patient outcome. Early results from first commercial use continue
to reflect the experience of users in the compassionate use program which operated in the
US prior to product approval.
Avita Medical sold approximately 224 recell kits for the March quarter to approximately 20
accounts. Prior to the official launch (Jan 2019) approximately 100 units has been sold in
the December quarter.
It seems reasonably clear that interest continues to swell. We do not expect there is any
significant stockpiling by hospital users, hence we are optimistic that the volume of sales in
the June quarter should grow by at least 50% (i.e. ~330 unit sales in the June 2019
quarter).
The company has not provided revenue guidance.



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aus der Diskussion: Avita Medical
Autor (Datum des Eintrages): ODI01  (30.05.19 16:07:43)
Beitrag: 55 von 396 (ID:60699506)
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