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Ich kopier hier wieder 2 Beiträge rein, weil sie mir sehr bemerkenswert erscheinen und gute Ansatzpunkte zum Nachdenken bieten: ------------------------------------ How vulnerable is the $30 billion revenue? What does it consist of? Is a substantial part of it leases for data circuits? What happens when the leases expire and they must be renewed at one tenth their previous rate? Why does WCOM need the $5 billion bank line, if it already is cash flow positive to the tune of $2 billion a year? Is this credit line needed to prop up the company because of the threat of substantial deterioration in data revenues in the next year? ------------------------------------ These are extremely good questions: How vulnerable are revenues? Well the answer to that is they are as vulnerable as the market will let them get. Some things to consider on the negative side: -Some companies are so desperate they will sell below cost to generate any kind of revenues (but companies like this are currently being "culled from the herd" eg. GBLX assets up for sale) -Over supply due to over building in the late 90`s early 00`s. -Undercutting by baby bells who hate WCOM Some on the positive side: -Communications usage growing by 12 -15% per year -Internet usage growing by 80% per year -All communication companies in similar boat to WCOM except some baby bells but they have antiquated switching networks -WCOM is uniquely positioned with it`s state of of the art International network (they offer a better quality service) - The neighborhood, by my calculation, could bring up to 3 billion in additional revenues with 5% market penetration. It is an attractive deal. Further I`m not so sure any other telco could realistically compete with WCOM on this "all inclusive" any distance, service. - Capex is being cut across the industry - so not a lot of new building is going on So, just because GBLX and their ilk was willing to sell bandwidth @ below cost will WCOM follow suit? International revenues are still rising y/y. Does Microsoft want to patch its systems through a multitude of interconnected networks, some vulnerable to BK or will it stay with WCOM and pay a price that includes a profit margin? My view is that communications is a necessary service. It cannot be offered below cost for ever. We are seeing what that causes. BK, bond downgrades, panic etc. Equilibrium will be reached at some point and prices will rise so that companies can make a profit. WCOM is excellently positioned here because they really are "best of breed" and they offer distinctly unique, high value services. This view has currently been lost. So revenues will deteriorate until they stop deteriorating and then they will start to increase. Further, as far as the $5 bil back-stop goes, it`s insurance only. WCOM can protect its cash flow and enhance it. They "could" cut capex up to $3 billion per year. They have already cut the MCI dividend that`s $280 mil. Inter-group allocations will add $800 mil. to EBITA. MCI will add $700 mil to EBITA(likely more with Neighborhood). Plus they have somewhere between $3 billion and $1.6 in saleable non-core assets. Last WCOM does currently have a cash position of $1.5 billion. Anyway you look at it, debt goes down and debt to equity ratio improves. To think otherwise is to just buy into the current "Wall Street Hype". I seriously wonder if, as I have previously stated, that with WCOM are you are simply seeing the flip side of the what occurred with Internets? Analysts can no longer drive bad no value companies up to ludicrous nosebleed levels so is it possible that now the plan has switched to driving good, high value companies to BK prices? Either way you can make money on the extremes and by taking the opposite side of your public position. Anyway, my view is obvious, I think WCOM is a steal here. That to accept the view that revenues will continue to shrink at below cost levels forever is as mistaken as assuming that anything associated with the Internets will experience exponential positive growth forever. Both arguments are/were extreme and born out of the market psychology of their times. |
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| aus der Diskussion: | WORLDCOM-Beginnt ab heut der grösste Rebound der letzten Zeit ? |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | Topfenpalatschinke (27.05.02 23:04:48) |
| Beitrag: | 141 von 232 (ID:6500730) |
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