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Der Schock saß und sitzt immer noch tief, denke jedoch, daß Starmedia den Boden gefunden haben sollte. Hat Starmedia nur eine Chance, wenn sie übernommen werden? Habe folgenden Artikel (vom 15.3) gefunden: Internet: Has StarMedia`s Star Faded? Staff Writer: Judith Graham (3/15/00) Latin American portal StarMedia Network (NASDAQ: STRM - news) took an especially hard hit on Monday after analysts at Merrill Lynch and Salomon Smith Barney downgraded the stock. Shares sank $17.25, or 34%, to $32.75. In his report, Merrill`s Michel Morin said the Latin American portal will have to spend more than originally expected to meet revenue projections. Other reasons for the Merrill downgrade include the stock`s 60% surge in the past two months and the lack of near-term catalysts. Echoing Morin`s sentiments, Smith Barney`s Lanny Baker attributed his downgrade (from ``buy`` to ``neutral``) to an increased and more costly competitive environment in Latin America`s online media industry. But barely a month ago, StarMedia was shining in the Wall Street spotlight after reporting blowout fourth-quarter results. So what happened? For StarMedia investors, it`s hard to dismiss Monday`s sell-off as a simple bump in the road. But it doesn`t appear the company is heading toward dire straits, either. In fact, some analysts even suggest Monday`s 34% drop presents a buying opportunity. The stock edged higher $0.44 on Tuesday. In a recent conference call with analysts, StarMedia said it was adjusting internal earnings projections in an effort to better take advantage of a more dynamic than expected market, especially in light of the number of free Latin American ISPs that have been introduced this year. This internal adjustment will result in increased spending, which led Morin to revise earnings estimates, along with several other analysts. However, StarMedia also expects that there may be as much as 20% upside to its original 2001 revenue forecast. This led analyst Michael Graham of Robertson Stephens to raise his 2001 revenue estimates to $100 million. Increased competition, particularly from free ISPs, has raised concerns about StarMedia`s viability. Indeed, Graham notes in a report that he wouldn`t be surprised to see volatility as investors cope with the rapidly evolving competitive landscape. But the jury`s still out on the viability of the free ISP model, and not just in Latin America. With many free ISPs offering their own portal-like sites, some argue that users will be less inclined to access StarMedia`s sites. But StarMedia is already one step ahead. Last month, the company joined CMGI (NASDAQ: CMGI - news) and other partners to create a company with a $200 million investment to offer free web access in Latin America called Gratis1. StarMedia will provide mostly content and the sales staff for the new company, while CMGI, Flatiron Partners, Chase Capital Partners and 1stUp.com will put up most of the cash investment. Gratis1 should be up and running in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina by June, and in other Latin markets soon after that. Another factor to consider in StarMedia`s favor: some investors believe that America Online (NYSE: AOL - news), Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO - news) or Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT - news) could be separately interested in buying the portal. Each company wants to establish a dominant position in Latin America to take advantage of expected growth in demand for online services. Jupiter Communications estimates that 50 million Latin Americans will be online by 2005. StarMedia CEO Fernando Espuelas has said his company is not for sale. But as history dictates, that`s usually not saying much. Apart from AOL, Yahoo, and Microsoft, CMGI stands out as a potential suitor. CMGI has already outlined its plans to expand into Europe, Asia and Latin America, aiming essentially to mimic what they`ve done with Lycos (NASDAQ: LCOS - news) and AltaVista in the U.S. Since it`s already forged a partnership with StarMedia through the Gratis1 venture, it wouldn`t be surprising if CMGI moved to buy the portal when it`s ready to pursue the Latin American market more aggressively. While the prospects appear favorable, for now it`s uncertain how the Latin American Internet market will shake out. Given the region`s recent history of economic and political instability, it`s difficult to determine if any players can really win. Graham predicts there could be three to five major players across Latin America by year-end. But shares of Latin American Internet companies could soon face further pressure after America Online Latin America and Brazil`s Universo Online go public. Many short sellers are betting that sites like StarMedia and competitors like El Sitio (NASDAQ: LCTO - news) will decline. But after Monday`s decline, it`s likely some of those short sellers have already cashed in. Bottom Line: There`s a strong chance we`ll see StarMedia get bought out somewhere along the line. While it`s unlikely we`ll see the stock surge dramatically again this year, in part due to increased spending and revised earnings, StarMedia is still well positioned to emerge as a leading Internet player in Latin America. |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Starmedia, der neue Stern am Himmel? |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | Triton (21.03.00 22:14:03) |
| Beitrag: | 14 von 34 (ID:669039) |
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