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Hi Leute, bißchen weiter unten ein Update von Kaufman Bros zu Talk von heute. @marrocco na Marrocco, da haben wir ja beide ganz gut gelegen mit unseren Tipps, einerseits haben wir (Gottseidank) deine 3$ nicht erreicht, aber meine 3,30$ haben auch nicht ganz gehalten. Bist du jetzt eigentlich drinne? @ SuperShare Also, habe erstens eine schöne Zeit in Spanien gehabt und geniesse jetzt noch den Rest der Woche zu Hause und zweitens habe ich in Spanien noch einmal 2.500 Talk zu 3,40$ gekauft. Habe extra die ganze Zeit nicht geguckt, um mir den Urlaub nicht zu versauen, was ja sonst auch passiert wäre, weil die danach erstmal wieder auf 3,25 $ oder so runter sind. Naja, extrem Daumendrücking für dich, mich und alle anderen für morgen abend. Ein paar gute Sachen in dem Update von Vic, oder? Mir gefallen gleich mehrere Sachen. Bis morgen abend! Gruss OM TALK AMERICA HOLDINGS, INC. (TALK+ $3.35) Vik Grover, CFA, 212.292.8123 Rating: BUY vgrover@kbro.com Price Target $6 Richard Fetyko, Associate Fiscal Year-End: December 31 2001A 2002E 2003E Diluted Shares: 86.7MM EPS (New) -- -- -- Market Cap: $290.3MM EPS (Old) ($0.05) $0.39 $0.50 L-T Debt + Pref.: $119.2MM P/E NM 8.6x 6.7x 52-Week Range: $4.33 - $0.30 Revenues (New) -- -- -- Avg. Daily Volume: 907,136 Revenues (Old) $495.5MM $321.0MM $387.5MM 2Q02 EARNINGS PREVIEW -Talk America will report 2Q02 results tomorrow after the close. A conference call will be held at 5:00pm ET at 888-214-7596 (U.S.) and 415-537-1946 (international). A replay of the call will be available at 800-633-8284 (U.S.), 402-977-9140 (international); the passcode is 20738201. A webcast will be available at www.talk.com and www.streetevents.com. -We look for billed local lines to grow 27% QoQ to 245,820 from 194,000 in 1Q02. ARPU should remain stable at $58.93, down 1% QoQ due to the introduction of lower price point products to drive growth across mass-market customers. We expect bundled services revenues to grow to 51% of revenues from 45% of revenues in 1Q02, aided by strong local growth and attrition of the company`s legacy 1+ long distance business (roughly 600,000 customers remaining generating ARPU of roughly $20). -Though the company has pre-announced positive results, we believe Talk America could beat the high end of guidance. Specifically, we see upside to the high end of EBITDA guidance of $12-14 million. The company is benefiting from lower customer acquisition costs ($110 in 4Q01 falling to $60-70 in 2Q02), lower churn (15%+ churn in 4Q01 falling to 6-8% in 2Q02), lower G&A (one-third less headcount), and provisioning efficiencies (95%+ of orders provisioned within 30 days). Further, we believe continued cuts to UNE rates by state PUCs should boost the company`s gross margins due to its UNE-P-based platform. -We predict the company will raise guidance on the call for the full year, which could support additional upside to our estimates. Considering the company is returning to sequential growth in its core business after two years of systems refinements and restructuring activity, we believe 2Q02 will mark an inflection point for Talk America. -We recommend purchase of TALK heading into the report, which should prove that the company`s model is effective, profitable and accelerating. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and $6 price target. Our price target is driven by a 10-year DCF using a cost of capital of 22%, secular growth of 5%, and a 30% public/private discount. It represents a target EV of $564 million, or 7.9x 2003E EBITDA and 9.5x 2003E free cash flow. |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Talk America |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | OhneMandeln (05.08.02 22:25:31) |
| Beitrag: | 81 von 216 (ID:7050015) |
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