|
Es darf spekuliert werden: 10-08-02 02:24 WEEKAHEAD-Fed decision the focus for forex By Daniel Bases NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - An eagerly awaited Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday and the summer lull in trading is likely to keep currency investors sidelined and the dollar stable until the central bank makes its interest rate announcement, currency analysts say. Economic data due to be released next week, including July retail sales and industrial production, will be overshadowed by the Fed meeting, the analysts added. The dollar`s rally to six-week highs against major European currencies and the yen was fueled in part by expectations the Fed would cut rates in a bid to boost flagging economic growth. However, as expectations for a cut diminished ahead of the meeting, the dollar`s rebound stalled. "The pendulum of expectations has swung back more toward steady policy from those thinking there was a greater chance of an ease," said Bob Lynch, currency strategist at BNP Paribas. "Short-term, the dollar would probably respond positively to a cut. If they leave rates unchanged it would be a slight negative, but mitigated if they shift the bias to ease from neutral and if they do nothing, then a bit more disappointment," he said. The majority of Wall Street economists expect the Fed to hold rates steady through the rest of the year. However a third of the 22 primary dealers -- banks that deal directly with the Fed -- believe the Fed may change its view to acknowledge risks to the economy are now tilted toward weakness rather than evenly balanced between weakness and inflation. In addition to the speculation surrounding the Fed, the dollar gained ground on what traders said was a refocusing on economic fundamentals, even though the latest data for the United States has been anything but cheery. "People again are starting to look at economic fundamentals and although the numbers have not been great here in the United States, when you look at Europe and Japan, things are much worse over there and that is why the dollar has had a bit of a rally," said Hugh Walsh, vice president at Fortis U.S.A. In July, U.S. economic data has showed sluggish employment growth, a sharp drop in manufacturing activity, while second second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic strength, grew less-than-expected. "We have a lot to focus on next week -- we`ve got the Fed and retail sales on Tuesday and then the SEC deadline on August 14. It`s going to be huge -- and then the remaining two weeks in August will be a lot quieter, which will give us a lot of time to speculate about what will happen at the next Fed meeting," said Tim Mazanec, director at Investors Bank & Trust Co. The euro ended the week at 96.93 cents<EUR=>, down 1.74 percent against dollar. The dollar climbed 1.05 percent against the yen <JPY=> to 120.10 yen. DATA OVERSHADOWED The U.S. data that will fight for attention against the Fed`s decision include retail sales on Tuesday, industrial production on Thursday, and Friday`s preliminary consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. Analysts say the retail sales data will be skewed toward strength because of strong July auto sales. However, dealer and manufacturer incentives such as zero percent financing rather than unexpected demand, diminish the potential strength of the report. "That being the case, it takes a little bit of the credibility out of the data, and I don`t think a gain in line with expectations is going to dismiss concerns that there might be issues with consumption going forward given with what has happened with the stock market," said Lynch. According to a Reuters survey of economists, retail sales rose an estimated 1.2 percent in July, compared to a rise of 1.1 percent the month before. July Industrial production fell 0.1 percent after a 0.8 percent increase in June, according to the estimates. Consumer sentiment, however could increase as the stock market has rallied back from five year lows. The preliminary August Michigan survey is expected to show a slight increase to 88.3 from a previous reading of 88.1. In Europe, Italy reports its consumer price index, expected to rise 0.2 percent in July, while in Britain the retail price index for July is forecast to drop 0.3 percent. ((Daniel Bases, U.S. Financial Markets Desk 646-223-6316)) © Reuters Limited Gruß AFC |
|
| aus der Diskussion: | Wohin geht der EUR? |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | africando (10.08.02 11:13:38) |
| Beitrag: | 35 von 16,900 (ID:7090854) |
| Alle Angaben ohne Gewähr © wallstreetONLINE | |