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COMMENTS FROM JIM SINCLAIR: This is going to be the toughest call of this entire $300 - $330 sideways movement. The reason why is because, as we enter the $320 - $325 range, there is a knee-jerk reaction in the gold market. The gold market is so used to the arrival of JPM, Lehman, Goldman and Merrill as sellers pounding the market, that gold shares now almost automatically decelerate, as a knee-jerk reaction to gold being at the the $320 -$325 price. At this price, the gold shares` appreciation decelerates and actually stops dead in their tracks. What the market has failed to realize is that these gold dealers, due to their own liquidity situations, are now no longer the big position takers in gold as they were before. All they have been doing lately is exercising clients` orders. The sellers of gold that have come into gold market at the $320 - $325 area have not been the gold cartel. They have been the local floor traders and speculator computer traders. Again, not the cartel. This is why we have had higher lows as we chop sideways. I firmly believe the chances of taking out the $330 level to the upside before Christmas is real because the significant enemy of the gold price, the gold cartel, is out of business. They have had their trading capital called back to the parent holding company because of the effects of the credit downgrade on the parent holding companies. When the market wakes up that the enemy is no longer there, no event will be required to take gold above $330. It will simply go there. Here is how we will determine if gold is going to break out above $330: Have you wondered how I was able to determine the heads up and buy/sell points in this rally? Well, thanks to RGLD/GG and the use of proprietary measures in the duration period of the chart, the slow stochastic and Williams %R, I have when these leading (action-wise) gold shares entered an oversold condition, began to look for the buy and overbought for the sell. Now as gold approaches $330, if the gold shares (which historically know more about gold than gold does) are not into the overbought condition that have been so accurate, we will assume $330 is going to breach and NOT SELL our 1/3. This means we are remaining disciplined, but being superbly focused. I will, as we near this situation, be doing daily technical reviews. I consider the market at this time more critically positive than ever before in this 11-month rally. The magnificently symmetric, three-year golden tea cup formation* would break to the upside out of the handle at a close above $330. This type of a formation, over this amount of time, is extremely rare and super bullish. I have in my 43 years never seen a technical formation of this kind for this long a duration with this type of symmetry. It is rare and important. This type of a formation will launch only one thing, a huge Bull market, if resolved to the upside. The probability of failure after gold breaks to the upside above $330 from this type of a formation is less than 10%. Those odds are outrageously good for the long. We know the bull market in gold started 11 months ago, but history will record the breakout above the handle on the golden tea cup as "The Birth of the Gold Bull Market." This will occur because the amount of appreciation above the handle will be orders of magnitude compared to the 11-month appreciation we have already witnessed. Be assured that I am focused and will be keeping the Gold community as closely focused. |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Durban Roodeport Deep Adr (DROOY) |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | peter.wedemeier1 (10.11.02 16:19:16) |
| Beitrag: | 59 von 421 (ID:7809050) |
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