Der NICK LEESON des Kupfermarkts - 500 Beiträge pro Seite
eröffnet am 16.11.05 12:22:35 von
neuester Beitrag 31.03.06 00:44:37 von
neuester Beitrag 31.03.06 00:44:37 von
Beiträge: 11
ID: 1.020.435
ID: 1.020.435
Aufrufe heute: 0
Gesamt: 1.250
Gesamt: 1.250
Aktive User: 0
Top-Diskussionen
| Titel | letzter Beitrag | Aufrufe |
|---|---|---|
| gestern 23:15 | 911 | |
| gestern 12:15 | 836 | |
| 20.04.24, 12:11 | 509 | |
| gestern 19:30 | 413 | |
| vor 1 Stunde | 404 | |
| heute 03:00 | 362 | |
| heute 05:38 | 343 | |
| vor 1 Stunde | 322 |
Meistdiskutierte Wertpapiere
| Platz | vorher | Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % | Anzahl | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 1. | 18.049,41 | -0,21 | 200 | |||
| 2. | 2. | 9,7400 | +0,98 | 184 | |||
| 3. | 3. | 149,76 | -1,19 | 132 | |||
| 4. | 4. | 0,1900 | -2,06 | 70 | |||
| 5. | 6. | 0,0211 | -32,59 | 29 | |||
| 6. | 5. | 6,7020 | -0,62 | 29 | |||
| 7. | 7. | 1,3400 | -0,74 | 29 | |||
| 8. | 15. | 2,2720 | -3,57 | 26 |
Feedback
China Auctions 20,000 Tons of State Copper
Wednesday November 16, 6:08 am ET
By Elaine Kurtenbach, AP Business Writer
China Auctions 20,000 Tons of State Copper Reserves, Announces Plans for Another Sale
SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- China sold 20,000 metric tons (22,000 tons) of copper from its state reserves Wednesday in the country`s first auction of copper reserves, a move aimed at meeting surging demand and countering record prices for the metal.
The sale comes amid uncertainty over whether China might need to buy heavily in international markets to cover a position taken by a government metals trader, an expectation that has helped push prices to all-time highs.
Three-month copper futures rose to a record $4,175 a metric ton Tuesday on the London Metal Exchange.
Hours after the auction, the State Reserve Bureau said it would sell off another 20,000 metric tons on Nov. 23. In an announcement on the Web site of the National Development Reform Commission, it cited a need to raise available supplies of the metal.
Official results of Wednesday`s auction were not immediately released and the State Reserve Bureau refused comment. However, officials attending the auction in Beijing said 15,000 metric tons (16,500 tons) sold in the morning for prices ranging from 37,850 yuan ($4,673) a ton to 38,750 yuan ($4,784) a ton.
Another 5,000 metric tons (5,512 tons) sold in the afternoon session for between 37,550 yuan ($4,636) and 37,800 yuan ($4,667), participants said.
The State Reserve Bureau, which manages China`s strategic reserves for various commodities, has said it might hold further auctions this year.
With its economy growing at a rate of more than 9 percent for several years running, China is having a growing impact on most global commodity markets. And Chinese demand for copper has been helping push its price higher for almost two years.
Traders say China-based trader Liu Qibing sold between 100,000 metric tons (110,000 tons) to 200,000 metric tons (220,000 tons) of copper, much of it due for delivery in December, in hopes that he could buy it back for a profit when prices fell.
Instead, speculation that China might have to buy large amounts of copper to fulfill the contract pushed prices higher, raising the prospect of huge losses.
Liu is thought to have already lost his job; a staffer who answered the phone at Beijing`s State Reserve Bureau said Liu was not working there and that he "has nothing to do with our bureau."
The official refused to give her name, as is typical with Chinese bureaucrats.
The State Reserve Bureau generally sells at market highs and replenishes reserves at market lows. It announced plans for Wednesday`s copper auction on Nov. 9.
The actual size of China`s copper reserves has not been formally announced -- the country`s secretive government agencies rarely disclose information about reserves of key commodities.
The lack of any official comment on Liu`s trading, and reports of his disappearance, have accentuated the uncertainty in the markets.
It isn`t the first time China has been caught out in metals trading.
In 1997, the China National Nonferrous Metals Corp. suffered ruinous losses from zinc trading on the London Metals Exchange. After that the government set up three separate metals trading firms, which took over the assets of the former state monopoly.
********
Auch im Kommunismus ist man von ruinöser Spekulation nicht geheilt Geniale Planwirtschaft ... da kommt einfach irgendein trader-bürokrat und shortet Kupfer was das Zeug hält, und die Regierung legt noch mal einen drauf in dem noch mehr verkauft wird.
Erinnert auch stark an den Goldmarkt, wo immer wieder mit dem Verkauf der Zentralbanken "gedroht" wird, um die shorties zu "retten".
Wednesday November 16, 6:08 am ET
By Elaine Kurtenbach, AP Business Writer
China Auctions 20,000 Tons of State Copper Reserves, Announces Plans for Another Sale
SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- China sold 20,000 metric tons (22,000 tons) of copper from its state reserves Wednesday in the country`s first auction of copper reserves, a move aimed at meeting surging demand and countering record prices for the metal.
The sale comes amid uncertainty over whether China might need to buy heavily in international markets to cover a position taken by a government metals trader, an expectation that has helped push prices to all-time highs.
Three-month copper futures rose to a record $4,175 a metric ton Tuesday on the London Metal Exchange.
Hours after the auction, the State Reserve Bureau said it would sell off another 20,000 metric tons on Nov. 23. In an announcement on the Web site of the National Development Reform Commission, it cited a need to raise available supplies of the metal.
Official results of Wednesday`s auction were not immediately released and the State Reserve Bureau refused comment. However, officials attending the auction in Beijing said 15,000 metric tons (16,500 tons) sold in the morning for prices ranging from 37,850 yuan ($4,673) a ton to 38,750 yuan ($4,784) a ton.
Another 5,000 metric tons (5,512 tons) sold in the afternoon session for between 37,550 yuan ($4,636) and 37,800 yuan ($4,667), participants said.
The State Reserve Bureau, which manages China`s strategic reserves for various commodities, has said it might hold further auctions this year.
With its economy growing at a rate of more than 9 percent for several years running, China is having a growing impact on most global commodity markets. And Chinese demand for copper has been helping push its price higher for almost two years.
Traders say China-based trader Liu Qibing sold between 100,000 metric tons (110,000 tons) to 200,000 metric tons (220,000 tons) of copper, much of it due for delivery in December, in hopes that he could buy it back for a profit when prices fell.
Instead, speculation that China might have to buy large amounts of copper to fulfill the contract pushed prices higher, raising the prospect of huge losses.
Liu is thought to have already lost his job; a staffer who answered the phone at Beijing`s State Reserve Bureau said Liu was not working there and that he "has nothing to do with our bureau."
The official refused to give her name, as is typical with Chinese bureaucrats.
The State Reserve Bureau generally sells at market highs and replenishes reserves at market lows. It announced plans for Wednesday`s copper auction on Nov. 9.
The actual size of China`s copper reserves has not been formally announced -- the country`s secretive government agencies rarely disclose information about reserves of key commodities.
The lack of any official comment on Liu`s trading, and reports of his disappearance, have accentuated the uncertainty in the markets.
It isn`t the first time China has been caught out in metals trading.
In 1997, the China National Nonferrous Metals Corp. suffered ruinous losses from zinc trading on the London Metals Exchange. After that the government set up three separate metals trading firms, which took over the assets of the former state monopoly.
********
Auch im Kommunismus ist man von ruinöser Spekulation nicht geheilt Geniale Planwirtschaft ... da kommt einfach irgendein trader-bürokrat und shortet Kupfer was das Zeug hält, und die Regierung legt noch mal einen drauf in dem noch mehr verkauft wird.Erinnert auch stark an den Goldmarkt, wo immer wieder mit dem Verkauf der Zentralbanken "gedroht" wird, um die shorties zu "retten".
Another LME copper scandal coming?
Word this morning from Dow Jones Newswires of a possible – even likely – explanation for copper’s apparently gravity-defying ride: “Chinese copper trader missing,” reports Andrew Hotter. Apparently, Liu Qibing, “who is said to have built a big short position” – between 100,000 and 200,000 tonnes – “on the London Metal Exchange, has inexplicably” – or quite explicably – “ended contact with other dealers in both London and in China, people who have worked with the trader said.”
Liu, who worked for China’s State Reserve Bureau, hasn’t been at work for weeks, “colleagues” said. Which may be explained by the fact that the SRB denies it has an employee with that name. “Though London metal traders have Mr. Liu`s business card, Wang Huimin, director of the SRB`s Materials Management Center, denied knowledge of such a trader or of a London short copper position. ‘I`ve never heard of this person,’ he said. ‘Neither have I ever heard anything about the SRB selling short in London. I’m not clear if he is our staff. The SRB has no traders’.”
The alleged short, which is far in excess of LME copper stocks, is due to be covered by Christmas. Interesting times, indeed.
Word this morning from Dow Jones Newswires of a possible – even likely – explanation for copper’s apparently gravity-defying ride: “Chinese copper trader missing,” reports Andrew Hotter. Apparently, Liu Qibing, “who is said to have built a big short position” – between 100,000 and 200,000 tonnes – “on the London Metal Exchange, has inexplicably” – or quite explicably – “ended contact with other dealers in both London and in China, people who have worked with the trader said.”
Liu, who worked for China’s State Reserve Bureau, hasn’t been at work for weeks, “colleagues” said. Which may be explained by the fact that the SRB denies it has an employee with that name. “Though London metal traders have Mr. Liu`s business card, Wang Huimin, director of the SRB`s Materials Management Center, denied knowledge of such a trader or of a London short copper position. ‘I`ve never heard of this person,’ he said. ‘Neither have I ever heard anything about the SRB selling short in London. I’m not clear if he is our staff. The SRB has no traders’.”
The alleged short, which is far in excess of LME copper stocks, is due to be covered by Christmas. Interesting times, indeed.
A Chinese trader gambled millions on behalf of his government. Now he has disappeared
LIU QIBING was a familiar figure on the London Metal Exchange, where he was a leading dealer in copper on behalf of the Chinese Government
In recent months he gambled with his country’s money on copper worth an estimated $800 million (£460 million), apparently selling “short” in the hope that prices would fall. Instead, the price of the metal has soared, reaching a record high of $4,132 a tonne yesterday
[...]
Although Mr Liu has not been active in the market for some weeks, a Shanghai-based analyst for a foreign securities firm said on Monday night that he was at his home in the city after being ordered to stay away from work. “He has turned off his mobile phone but he is ok,” the analyst said.
LIU QIBING was a familiar figure on the London Metal Exchange, where he was a leading dealer in copper on behalf of the Chinese Government
In recent months he gambled with his country’s money on copper worth an estimated $800 million (£460 million), apparently selling “short” in the hope that prices would fall. Instead, the price of the metal has soared, reaching a record high of $4,132 a tonne yesterday
[...]
Although Mr Liu has not been active in the market for some weeks, a Shanghai-based analyst for a foreign securities firm said on Monday night that he was at his home in the city after being ordered to stay away from work. “He has turned off his mobile phone but he is ok,” the analyst said.
Rogue SRB Trader Short 100,000-200,000 Tons of Copper
The WSJ reports China Copper Trader Missing by Andrew Hotter
A Chinese government copper trader, who is said to have built a big short position on the London Metal Exchange, has inexplicably ended contact with other dealers in both London and in China, people who have worked with the trader said.
Liu Qibing, who worked for China`s State Reserve Bureau (SRB), took short copper positions that some London dealers said amounted to between 100,000 and 200,000 tons. The traders said the SRB would find it difficult to deliver the amounts of copper traded by what they said was a deadline of Dec. 21
If there is such a short postion, the SRB would have to scramble to meet delivery scheduled for Dec. 21st. The SRB denies that any such person named Liu Qibing works for them.
If Mr. Liu`s short position is between 100,000 and 200,000 tons, it would be huge by LME standards. Copper stocks on the LME were only 65,350 tons on Friday, a level generally considered low.
[...]
Traders in London and New York say SRB losses could be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Such a loss would be the largest on the LME since Sumitomo lost an estimated $2.6 billion in 1996.
Traders say if there is a short of this magnitude, SRB could handle delivery from its strategic reserves, but it would find itself with its reserves depleted.
The WSJ reports China Copper Trader Missing by Andrew Hotter
A Chinese government copper trader, who is said to have built a big short position on the London Metal Exchange, has inexplicably ended contact with other dealers in both London and in China, people who have worked with the trader said.
Liu Qibing, who worked for China`s State Reserve Bureau (SRB), took short copper positions that some London dealers said amounted to between 100,000 and 200,000 tons. The traders said the SRB would find it difficult to deliver the amounts of copper traded by what they said was a deadline of Dec. 21
If there is such a short postion, the SRB would have to scramble to meet delivery scheduled for Dec. 21st. The SRB denies that any such person named Liu Qibing works for them.
If Mr. Liu`s short position is between 100,000 and 200,000 tons, it would be huge by LME standards. Copper stocks on the LME were only 65,350 tons on Friday, a level generally considered low.
[...]
Traders in London and New York say SRB losses could be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Such a loss would be the largest on the LME since Sumitomo lost an estimated $2.6 billion in 1996.
Traders say if there is a short of this magnitude, SRB could handle delivery from its strategic reserves, but it would find itself with its reserves depleted.
Copper trader throws market into confusion
By David M Lenard
HUA HIN, Thailand - Confusion reigned in world copper markets this week after reports emerged that a Chinese copper trader based in London, Liu Qibing, had disappeared after building gigantic short positions in the metal, said to range from 100,000 to 600,000 tonnes.
Adding to the mystery were strenuous denials by Liu`s purported employer, China`s State Reserve Bureau (SRB), that Liu actually worked for the agency. Another official told a Western journalist that it was "not clear" whether such a person even existed.
The case was reminiscent of two epic financial scandals of the mid-1990s: the downfall of Barings Bank, brought about by rogue trader Nick Leeson`s US$800 million worth of losses in Nikkei index futures; and the debacle brought about at Japan`s Sumitomo Corporation by Yasuo "Mr Five Percent" Hamanaka, who effectively tried to corner the world copper market by manipulating the eponymous portion of it that his group controlled.
One difference between Hamanaka and Liu is clear, however: Hamanaka attempted to keep copper prices high, Liu placed a huge bet that they would go down.
Copper prices have soared 30% this year so far. But based on his knowledge of Chinese government plans to sell off part of China`s copper reserves in a bid to ameliorate the effects of high copper prices on the domestic economy, Liu apparently decided that prices of the metal would fall, and tried to take advantage of this by selling vast amounts of copper he did not actually possess for December delivery.
This was done in the expectation of buying the metal back in December, at the lowered price, and pocketing the difference. Such "short selling" practices are routine in commodity markets, and not illegal; but they are risky, since if the expected price decline fails to materialize, the commodity must be delivered at a loss. Sadly for Liu, copper prices did not fall: they rose, reaching a record high of US$4,175 a ton on Tuesday on the London Metal Exchange (LME).
By David M Lenard
HUA HIN, Thailand - Confusion reigned in world copper markets this week after reports emerged that a Chinese copper trader based in London, Liu Qibing, had disappeared after building gigantic short positions in the metal, said to range from 100,000 to 600,000 tonnes.
Adding to the mystery were strenuous denials by Liu`s purported employer, China`s State Reserve Bureau (SRB), that Liu actually worked for the agency. Another official told a Western journalist that it was "not clear" whether such a person even existed.
The case was reminiscent of two epic financial scandals of the mid-1990s: the downfall of Barings Bank, brought about by rogue trader Nick Leeson`s US$800 million worth of losses in Nikkei index futures; and the debacle brought about at Japan`s Sumitomo Corporation by Yasuo "Mr Five Percent" Hamanaka, who effectively tried to corner the world copper market by manipulating the eponymous portion of it that his group controlled.
One difference between Hamanaka and Liu is clear, however: Hamanaka attempted to keep copper prices high, Liu placed a huge bet that they would go down.
Copper prices have soared 30% this year so far. But based on his knowledge of Chinese government plans to sell off part of China`s copper reserves in a bid to ameliorate the effects of high copper prices on the domestic economy, Liu apparently decided that prices of the metal would fall, and tried to take advantage of this by selling vast amounts of copper he did not actually possess for December delivery.
This was done in the expectation of buying the metal back in December, at the lowered price, and pocketing the difference. Such "short selling" practices are routine in commodity markets, and not illegal; but they are risky, since if the expected price decline fails to materialize, the commodity must be delivered at a loss. Sadly for Liu, copper prices did not fall: they rose, reaching a record high of US$4,175 a ton on Tuesday on the London Metal Exchange (LME).
Trading Spotlight
Nick Leeson, Liu Qibing, & the Rogue Trader Thing
A confession: I love rogue trader stories. From Nick Leeson on outward, they`re all domain-constrained amorality tales of greed run amok in markets that very briefly had the appearance of harmless video games -- only to have the in-game monster suddenly come to life and eat the trader, then his firm, and then maybe an entire market.
This week`s example is Liu Qibing, a senior trader working for China`s State Reserves Bureau. Having apparently gone short a rapidly-rising copper market in the amount of 150,000 to 200,000 tons of the stuff (a potential billion-dollar liability), Mr. Liu has done the typical rogue trader thing of taking an unsanctioned, unexpected holiday without bringing his Blackberry. He has, in other words, run for it.
Copper markets are having fits over the news, with copper traders running the price up in anticipation that China will eventually have to cover the sizable short trade. If the Chinese end up having to meet December delivery on the copper contracts, Qibing`s trade would work out to almost half of China`s copper reserves. Ouch.
So, where in the world is Liu Qibing? After scrawling his famous "I`m sorry" note on a desk at soon-to-be bankrupt Barings Bank in Singapore, Leeson flew to an exclusive resort in Borneo, and then wandered off Frankfurt, where he was arrested. Borneo seems possible for Qibing, but I doubt Frankfurt is in the cards.
And while Liu may not follow the rogue trader script word-for-word, his employers are already off the plot. The following is from an AP story tonight:
...a staffer who answered the phone at Beijing`s State Reserve Bureau said Tuesday that Liu was not working there and that he "has nothing to do with our bureau."
Love it. "Liu, what Liu? Never heard of him!"
A confession: I love rogue trader stories. From Nick Leeson on outward, they`re all domain-constrained amorality tales of greed run amok in markets that very briefly had the appearance of harmless video games -- only to have the in-game monster suddenly come to life and eat the trader, then his firm, and then maybe an entire market.
This week`s example is Liu Qibing, a senior trader working for China`s State Reserves Bureau. Having apparently gone short a rapidly-rising copper market in the amount of 150,000 to 200,000 tons of the stuff (a potential billion-dollar liability), Mr. Liu has done the typical rogue trader thing of taking an unsanctioned, unexpected holiday without bringing his Blackberry. He has, in other words, run for it.
Copper markets are having fits over the news, with copper traders running the price up in anticipation that China will eventually have to cover the sizable short trade. If the Chinese end up having to meet December delivery on the copper contracts, Qibing`s trade would work out to almost half of China`s copper reserves. Ouch.
So, where in the world is Liu Qibing? After scrawling his famous "I`m sorry" note on a desk at soon-to-be bankrupt Barings Bank in Singapore, Leeson flew to an exclusive resort in Borneo, and then wandered off Frankfurt, where he was arrested. Borneo seems possible for Qibing, but I doubt Frankfurt is in the cards.
And while Liu may not follow the rogue trader script word-for-word, his employers are already off the plot. The following is from an AP story tonight:
...a staffer who answered the phone at Beijing`s State Reserve Bureau said Tuesday that Liu was not working there and that he "has nothing to do with our bureau."
Love it. "Liu, what Liu? Never heard of him!"
LIBERATION : Scandale sur le marché du cuivre
La spéculation d`un trader chinois pourrait coûter des centaines de millions d`euros à son pays.
Le prestigieux London Metal Exchange (LME) est-il à la veille d`un retentissant scandale sur fond de flambée du cuivre ? La question agite depuis quelques semaines les professionnels depuis la récente et mystérieuse disparition de Liu Qibing, un citoyen chinois qui aurait spéculé maladroitement sur les cours du métal rouge. Las, selon toute vraisemblance, Qibing est aussi fonctionnaire du Bureau d`Etat des réserves (SBR) de métaux stratégiques de la République populaire de Chine. Ce que le gouvernement de Pékin, interrogé hier par l`AFP, tente de nier avec embarras, affirmant n`avoir aucun lien avec le disparu du LME. Mais des courtiers basés à Shanghai affirment que l`intéressé travaille bien pour le SBR à Londres.
La faute de monsieur Liu pourrait en tout cas coûter des centaines de millions d`euros à son pays. A l`origine, il avait pourtant essayé de bien faire : la Chine, un des trois plus gros consommateurs mondiaux de cuivre, avait tout intérêt à faire baisser les prix, qui sont actuellement en train de battre des records historiques à 4 120 dollars la tonne. Alors Liu Qibing et SBR ont vendu «à découvert», une pratique courante sur les marchés spéculatifs : après s`être engagé à vendre du cuivre qu`il ne détenait pas encore à un prix et à une date donnée, Liu attendait que les cours baissent pour acheter la marchandise moins chère qu`il ne la vendait et empocher un bénéfice. Mais les cours ont flambé, notamment sur des craintes de rupture de livraison des producteurs canadiens et zambiens. Du coup, Liu Qibing et son employeur d`Etat qui se seraient engagés à livrer entre 50 000 et 200 000 tonnes de métal qu`ils ne possèdent pas avant la fin du mois de décembre vont devoir payer le prix fort pour acheter du cuivre sur le marché.
«Il y avait déjà un feu sur le marché et cette histoire a jeté de l`huile dessus. Inévitablement, on commencera bientôt à parler d`un courtier voyou», raconte un analyste de la Société générale qui évoque ainsi l`ombre de Nick Leeson, ce trader de la banque Barings qui avait fait couler sa maison en 1995 après avoir perdu 1,3 milliard de dollars sur les marchés.
La spéculation d`un trader chinois pourrait coûter des centaines de millions d`euros à son pays.
Le prestigieux London Metal Exchange (LME) est-il à la veille d`un retentissant scandale sur fond de flambée du cuivre ? La question agite depuis quelques semaines les professionnels depuis la récente et mystérieuse disparition de Liu Qibing, un citoyen chinois qui aurait spéculé maladroitement sur les cours du métal rouge. Las, selon toute vraisemblance, Qibing est aussi fonctionnaire du Bureau d`Etat des réserves (SBR) de métaux stratégiques de la République populaire de Chine. Ce que le gouvernement de Pékin, interrogé hier par l`AFP, tente de nier avec embarras, affirmant n`avoir aucun lien avec le disparu du LME. Mais des courtiers basés à Shanghai affirment que l`intéressé travaille bien pour le SBR à Londres.
La faute de monsieur Liu pourrait en tout cas coûter des centaines de millions d`euros à son pays. A l`origine, il avait pourtant essayé de bien faire : la Chine, un des trois plus gros consommateurs mondiaux de cuivre, avait tout intérêt à faire baisser les prix, qui sont actuellement en train de battre des records historiques à 4 120 dollars la tonne. Alors Liu Qibing et SBR ont vendu «à découvert», une pratique courante sur les marchés spéculatifs : après s`être engagé à vendre du cuivre qu`il ne détenait pas encore à un prix et à une date donnée, Liu attendait que les cours baissent pour acheter la marchandise moins chère qu`il ne la vendait et empocher un bénéfice. Mais les cours ont flambé, notamment sur des craintes de rupture de livraison des producteurs canadiens et zambiens. Du coup, Liu Qibing et son employeur d`Etat qui se seraient engagés à livrer entre 50 000 et 200 000 tonnes de métal qu`ils ne possèdent pas avant la fin du mois de décembre vont devoir payer le prix fort pour acheter du cuivre sur le marché.
«Il y avait déjà un feu sur le marché et cette histoire a jeté de l`huile dessus. Inévitablement, on commencera bientôt à parler d`un courtier voyou», raconte un analyste de la Société générale qui évoque ainsi l`ombre de Nick Leeson, ce trader de la banque Barings qui avait fait couler sa maison en 1995 après avoir perdu 1,3 milliard de dollars sur les marchés.
!
Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an feedback@wallstreet-online.de
die FTD ist nicht gerade die schnellste
erst jetzt gibt es einen Artikel ...
Chinese hält Kupfermarkt auf Trab
von Astrid Maier, Frankfurt
Kupferhändler an der London Metal Exchange (LME) haben Schwierigkeiten, den Namen Liu Qibing überhaupt auszusprechen. Der Kollege aus China ist derzeit dennoch Gesprächsthema Nummer eins.
Schließlich soll er nach unbestätigten Berichten zwischen 100.000 und 200.000 Tonnen des Basismetalls über Terminkontrakte an der LME leer verkauft haben, um sie später in der Hoffnung auf sinkende Preise günstiger wieder einkaufen zu können. Mit dieser Spekulation lag er jedoch falsch. Am Dienstag trieben Gerüchte über seine Fehlinvestitionen den Preis für Kupfer zur Lieferung in drei Monaten vorübergehend auf ein Rekordhoch von 4175 $.
Allein, Liu Qibing ist seit Wochen spurlos verschwunden. Manche Behörden in China verleugnen gar seine Existenz. Andere geben an, er sei beurlaubt und habe die Transaktion auf eigene Rechnung getätigt. Analysten sind dagegen überzeugt, er hat sich im Auftrag der Behörden verspekuliert.
SRB setzt zu Großverkauf des Metalls an
Vieles spricht dafür, dass sich das staatliche Reservebüro (SRB) in die heikle Situation manövriert hat und nun alles daransetzt, den Markt zu beruhigen. Viel Zeit bleibt nicht, am 21. Dezember läuft die Lieferfrist auf den nächsten fälligen Terminkontrakt aus. Gelingt es der Behörde nicht, den Kupferpreis bis dahin deutlich zu senken, stehen ihr wahrscheinlich Verluste in Höhe von mehreren Hundert Millionen $ ins Haus: Liu soll Kupfer zu Preisen unter 3500 $ verkauft haben, sagten Händler der Nachrichtenagentur Reuters.
Das sonst verschwiegene SRB, das bis vor kurzem die Größe chinesischer Kupferreserven als Geheimnis fest unter Verschluss hielt, fährt derzeit jedenfalls eine veritable Öffentlichkeitskampagne. Vergangene Woche erst ließ das SRB wissen, China verfüge über Kupferreserven in Höhe von 1,3 Millionen Tonnen - und damit eine Million Tonnen mehr, als Marktanalysten für wahrscheinlich halten.
Am Mittwoch verkaufte das SRB erstmals in einer öffentlichen Auktion in Shanghai 20.000 Tonnen des Metalls, weitere 20.000 Tonnen sollen am 23. November versteigert werden. Schließlich berichteten Händler aus China am Mittwoch, das SRB habe beim Staatsrat einen Antrag gestellt, 200.000 Tonnen Kupfer auf dem Weltmarkt zu verkaufen. Nach volatilem Handel schloss Kupfer am Mittwoch in London mit 4140 $.
China derzeit der einzige große Kupfermarkt
"All diese plötzlich aus China sprudelnden Nachrichten sprechen für die Existenz der Short-Position", sagte Robin Bahr, Analyst bei UBS. Sollte China demnächst 200.000 Tonnen Kupfer auf den Weltmarkt werfen, "so dürften die Preise zeitweise auf 3000 $ einbrechen - um anschließend wieder nach oben zu schießen", so Bahr. Schließlich müsse das Land als weltgrößter Kupferverbraucher dann wieder importieren, um seinen Bedarf zu decken.
"Die Preise auf dem Kupfermarkt haben in diesem Jahr viele überrascht", sagte Ingrid Sternby, Analystin bei Barclays Capital. Tatsächlich ist China derzeit der einzige große Markt, in dem der Verbrauch steigt. In den USA, in Europa und Japan hingegen ist die Nachfrage gefallen. Der Preis für Kupfer ist seit Jahresanfang dennoch wegen unerwarteter Produktionsausfälle um rund 38 Prozent gestiegen.
Dass Liu Qibing ohne Auftrag von oben gehandelt haben könnte, halten Bahr und Sternby für unwahrscheinlich. Und für die Existenz des Chinesen führt Bahr, der den Händler persönlich kennt, gar folgenden Beweis an: "Ich habe seine Visitenkarte und seine Handynummer. Aber er geht im Moment nicht ran."
Aus der FTD vom 17.11.2005
© 2005 Financial Times Deutschland, © Illustration:
erst jetzt gibt es einen Artikel ...
Chinese hält Kupfermarkt auf Trab
von Astrid Maier, Frankfurt
Kupferhändler an der London Metal Exchange (LME) haben Schwierigkeiten, den Namen Liu Qibing überhaupt auszusprechen. Der Kollege aus China ist derzeit dennoch Gesprächsthema Nummer eins.
Schließlich soll er nach unbestätigten Berichten zwischen 100.000 und 200.000 Tonnen des Basismetalls über Terminkontrakte an der LME leer verkauft haben, um sie später in der Hoffnung auf sinkende Preise günstiger wieder einkaufen zu können. Mit dieser Spekulation lag er jedoch falsch. Am Dienstag trieben Gerüchte über seine Fehlinvestitionen den Preis für Kupfer zur Lieferung in drei Monaten vorübergehend auf ein Rekordhoch von 4175 $.
Allein, Liu Qibing ist seit Wochen spurlos verschwunden. Manche Behörden in China verleugnen gar seine Existenz. Andere geben an, er sei beurlaubt und habe die Transaktion auf eigene Rechnung getätigt. Analysten sind dagegen überzeugt, er hat sich im Auftrag der Behörden verspekuliert.
SRB setzt zu Großverkauf des Metalls an
Vieles spricht dafür, dass sich das staatliche Reservebüro (SRB) in die heikle Situation manövriert hat und nun alles daransetzt, den Markt zu beruhigen. Viel Zeit bleibt nicht, am 21. Dezember läuft die Lieferfrist auf den nächsten fälligen Terminkontrakt aus. Gelingt es der Behörde nicht, den Kupferpreis bis dahin deutlich zu senken, stehen ihr wahrscheinlich Verluste in Höhe von mehreren Hundert Millionen $ ins Haus: Liu soll Kupfer zu Preisen unter 3500 $ verkauft haben, sagten Händler der Nachrichtenagentur Reuters.
Das sonst verschwiegene SRB, das bis vor kurzem die Größe chinesischer Kupferreserven als Geheimnis fest unter Verschluss hielt, fährt derzeit jedenfalls eine veritable Öffentlichkeitskampagne. Vergangene Woche erst ließ das SRB wissen, China verfüge über Kupferreserven in Höhe von 1,3 Millionen Tonnen - und damit eine Million Tonnen mehr, als Marktanalysten für wahrscheinlich halten.
Am Mittwoch verkaufte das SRB erstmals in einer öffentlichen Auktion in Shanghai 20.000 Tonnen des Metalls, weitere 20.000 Tonnen sollen am 23. November versteigert werden. Schließlich berichteten Händler aus China am Mittwoch, das SRB habe beim Staatsrat einen Antrag gestellt, 200.000 Tonnen Kupfer auf dem Weltmarkt zu verkaufen. Nach volatilem Handel schloss Kupfer am Mittwoch in London mit 4140 $.
China derzeit der einzige große Kupfermarkt
"All diese plötzlich aus China sprudelnden Nachrichten sprechen für die Existenz der Short-Position", sagte Robin Bahr, Analyst bei UBS. Sollte China demnächst 200.000 Tonnen Kupfer auf den Weltmarkt werfen, "so dürften die Preise zeitweise auf 3000 $ einbrechen - um anschließend wieder nach oben zu schießen", so Bahr. Schließlich müsse das Land als weltgrößter Kupferverbraucher dann wieder importieren, um seinen Bedarf zu decken.
"Die Preise auf dem Kupfermarkt haben in diesem Jahr viele überrascht", sagte Ingrid Sternby, Analystin bei Barclays Capital. Tatsächlich ist China derzeit der einzige große Markt, in dem der Verbrauch steigt. In den USA, in Europa und Japan hingegen ist die Nachfrage gefallen. Der Preis für Kupfer ist seit Jahresanfang dennoch wegen unerwarteter Produktionsausfälle um rund 38 Prozent gestiegen.
Dass Liu Qibing ohne Auftrag von oben gehandelt haben könnte, halten Bahr und Sternby für unwahrscheinlich. Und für die Existenz des Chinesen führt Bahr, der den Händler persönlich kennt, gar folgenden Beweis an: "Ich habe seine Visitenkarte und seine Handynummer. Aber er geht im Moment nicht ran."
Aus der FTD vom 17.11.2005
© 2005 Financial Times Deutschland, © Illustration:
REUTERS
China may be looking to share the pain on copper woes
Thursday 17 November 2005, 4:44am EST
Printer Friendly | Email Article | Reprints | RSS
By Polly Yam
HONG KONG, Nov 17 (Reuters) - China`s State Reserves Bureau is believed to have made a large but wrong bet on copper, but its repeated denials may signal it does not have a direct obligation for the position, industry officials and analysts said on Thursday.
The Chinese bureau is at the centre of swirl of market speculation that a trader who worked on behalf of the state agency -- and who has since vanished -- had built a short position of between 150,000 to 200,000 tonnes of copper on the London Metal Exchange.
He placed bets, or took short positions, that copper would fall but the industrial metal continued to march to new highs on feverish fund buying.
"That was not done by the bureau," an official for the foreign affairs department of the bureau said when asked about the position.
"That also was not done by the State Regulation Centre of Supplies Reserve. You go to ask Liu Qibing, he is the center`s people," the bureau official told Reuters.
The State Regulation Centre is a business unit of the National Development and Reform Commission, which also manages the bureau.
The bureau, which is a state body responsible for managing the world`s biggest copper consumer but does not have a right to trade, gives orders to the centre to trade spot and futures copper.
Market sources said Beijing-based Liu might have built positions through eight brokers in London up to 200,000 tonnes of copper of which about 50,000 tonnes was approved by the centre. The brokers might not have received sufficent documents from Liu before taking his orders, raising legal concerns of the positions.
An senior official for the centre has said the trading that might have done by Liu were his and it had no evidence of any short position.
Business counterparts of Liu, who describe him as a quiet and upfront individual, have not been able to contact him since early October.
"I personally think he is a reliable man. For the business we did with him, he did what he promised," said a trader for an international trading house. "He was quiet and never talked about himself."
Officials of the centre have said he was on leave and could not say when he would return.
"If brokers have papers that are signed by Liu, the bureau won`t obligate the positions because the bureau did not sign them," a senior official for a state-owned metal group said.
He said brokers needed to hold an authorisation letter from the bureau certifying Liu represented the bureau to open short positions on the LME.
"If they have that, they can go to ask the government for money," he said.
Industry officials and analysts said the centre might seek to share the financial pain of the unauthorised positions Liu might have taken with the brokers in a bid to settle the dispute.
Traders say the bureau was also seeking permission from the State Council, the country`s policy maker, to let it export 200,000 tonnes of copper.
"If the bureau is seeking the approval, it has an intention to deliver," Yang Jun, analyst for Dalian Northern Futures said.
China may be looking to share the pain on copper woes
Thursday 17 November 2005, 4:44am EST
Printer Friendly | Email Article | Reprints | RSS
By Polly Yam
HONG KONG, Nov 17 (Reuters) - China`s State Reserves Bureau is believed to have made a large but wrong bet on copper, but its repeated denials may signal it does not have a direct obligation for the position, industry officials and analysts said on Thursday.
The Chinese bureau is at the centre of swirl of market speculation that a trader who worked on behalf of the state agency -- and who has since vanished -- had built a short position of between 150,000 to 200,000 tonnes of copper on the London Metal Exchange.
He placed bets, or took short positions, that copper would fall but the industrial metal continued to march to new highs on feverish fund buying.
"That was not done by the bureau," an official for the foreign affairs department of the bureau said when asked about the position.
"That also was not done by the State Regulation Centre of Supplies Reserve. You go to ask Liu Qibing, he is the center`s people," the bureau official told Reuters.
The State Regulation Centre is a business unit of the National Development and Reform Commission, which also manages the bureau.
The bureau, which is a state body responsible for managing the world`s biggest copper consumer but does not have a right to trade, gives orders to the centre to trade spot and futures copper.
Market sources said Beijing-based Liu might have built positions through eight brokers in London up to 200,000 tonnes of copper of which about 50,000 tonnes was approved by the centre. The brokers might not have received sufficent documents from Liu before taking his orders, raising legal concerns of the positions.
An senior official for the centre has said the trading that might have done by Liu were his and it had no evidence of any short position.
Business counterparts of Liu, who describe him as a quiet and upfront individual, have not been able to contact him since early October.
"I personally think he is a reliable man. For the business we did with him, he did what he promised," said a trader for an international trading house. "He was quiet and never talked about himself."
Officials of the centre have said he was on leave and could not say when he would return.
"If brokers have papers that are signed by Liu, the bureau won`t obligate the positions because the bureau did not sign them," a senior official for a state-owned metal group said.
He said brokers needed to hold an authorisation letter from the bureau certifying Liu represented the bureau to open short positions on the LME.
"If they have that, they can go to ask the government for money," he said.
Industry officials and analysts said the centre might seek to share the financial pain of the unauthorised positions Liu might have taken with the brokers in a bid to settle the dispute.
Traders say the bureau was also seeking permission from the State Council, the country`s policy maker, to let it export 200,000 tonnes of copper.
"If the bureau is seeking the approval, it has an intention to deliver," Yang Jun, analyst for Dalian Northern Futures said.
Sex, drugs and 200,000 tonnes of Copper
http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com/sex_drugs_and_20000…
Von der Geschichte hat man nichts mehr gehört.
Was aus dem armen Liu Qibing geworden ist weiss wohl auch keiner ...
Und der Kupferpreis ist unterdessen auf Rekordhoch.
http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com/sex_drugs_and_20000…
Von der Geschichte hat man nichts mehr gehört.
Was aus dem armen Liu Qibing geworden ist weiss wohl auch keiner ...
Und der Kupferpreis ist unterdessen auf Rekordhoch.
DurchsuchenBeitrag zu dieser Diskussion schreiben
Zu dieser Diskussion können keine Beiträge mehr verfasst werden, da der letzte Beitrag vor mehr als zwei Jahren verfasst wurde und die Diskussion daraufhin archiviert wurde.
Bitte wenden Sie sich an feedback@wallstreet-online.de und erfragen Sie die Reaktivierung der Diskussion oder starten Sie eine neue Diskussion.
Meistdiskutiert
| Wertpapier | Beiträge | |
|---|---|---|
| 194 | ||
| 188 | ||
| 143 | ||
| 72 | ||
| 31 | ||
| 29 | ||
| 29 | ||
| 26 | ||
| 25 | ||
| 25 |
| Wertpapier | Beiträge | |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | ||
| 23 | ||
| 23 | ||
| 23 | ||
| 23 | ||
| 21 | ||
| 20 | ||
| 20 | ||
| 20 | ||
| 20 |
