GILEAD SCIENCES 885823 (Seite 287)

[Kara-ben-nemsi]

Ich sehe vorbörslich recht gute Kurse. und vor allen Dingen auch relativ hohe Stückzahlen auf der Bid-Seite. Das spricht für ein gutes Interesse an der Gileadaktie heute. Könnte ein schöner Plus-Tag werden.

Ausserdem haben Pfizer und Merck gute Quartalszahlen geliefert. In den Erklärungen dazu könnte auch der eine oder andere Kommentar zu Hepatitis C kommen.

[Kara-ben-nemsi]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 47.387.828 von ernestof am 28.07.14 22:49:51

Bei mir ist kurzfristig gesehen (einige Wochen) Genfit noch viel besser als Gilead. Ich halte an beiden fest.

[ernestof]

Gilead ist von meinem Aktienbestand das beste Pferd im Stall.

D.h. , nahezu derzeit die einzige Aktie im Plus. Das aber ordentlich !
Dabei besitze ich sie erst seit März 2014 ( EP durchschnittlich 58 Euro )!

Dax-, MDax und TecDax kann man derzeit vergessen !

[Kara-ben-nemsi]

Ein Nachzügler:

Maxim erhöht Kursziel von Gilead auf 127. Kaufempfehlung,

[Kara-ben-nemsi]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 47.382.072 von kmastra am 27.07.14 22:57:13

jo, da zieh ich ab und an auch ein paar zahlen raus....
aber leider ist so eine tabelle, wenn sie so aussieht, entsetzlich unübersichtlich.
Das könnte man wesentlich besser gestalten.

Lediglich im unteren Teil, die Analystenkursziele sind recht gut zu erkennen.

[kmastra]

Reinkopiert aus http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_i…
Viel Spaß

$GILD - 7/24 reports from 12 analysts - Goldman, Credit Swisse, Wells, RBC, BMO, JPM, Nomura, Citi, UBS, Jefferies (no numbers), Deutsche Bank (limited numbers), and Morgan Stanley - 4/23 numbers in () - summary stats may come in later post:

Goldman
Sovaldi sales: '14-12.4B(10.4B); '15-13.2B(10.9B); '16-11.3B(10.1B); '17-11.0B(10.7B)
Earnings: '14-$7.90/sh($6.25/sh); '15-$8.72/sh($6.36/sh); '16-$8.28/sh($6.61/sh); '17-$8.71/sh($7.40/sh)

Credit Swisse
HCV franchise sales: '14-11.6B(9.1B); '15-12.1B(9.7B); '16-13.9B(12.6B); '17-13.5B(13.2B); '18-13.0B(12.0B); '19-11.5B(10.65B); '20-10.1B(9.4B)
Earnings: '14-$7.81/sh($6.52/sh); '15-$7.61/sh($6.56/sh); '16-$8.48/sh($7.85/sh); '17-$8.68/sh($8.51/sh); '18-$7.40/sh($6.80/sh); '19-$6.87/sh($6.32/sh); '20-$6.34/sh($5.89/sh)

Wells Fargo
HCV regimens: '14-12.4B(9.4B); '15-13.9B(11.7B); '16-14.6B(12.6B); '17-15.7B(12.7B); '18-15.8B(13.9B): '19-15.0B
Earnings; '14-$8.04/sh($6.55/sh); '15-$9.04/sh($7.57/sh); '16-$10.25/sh($8.67/sh); '17-$11.56/sh($9.78/sh); '18-$11.30/sh($9.38); '19-$10.83/sh

RBC
HCV: '14-12.1B/(9.5B); '15-14.0B(11.5B); '16-11.0B(9.9B)
Earnings: '14-$7.80/sh($6.15/sh); '15-$8.50/sh($7.00/sh); '16-$7.58/sh($7.18/sh)

BMO
HCV: '14-12.415B(8.075B); '15-14.414B(8.819B); '16-14.739B(9.854B); '17-14.634B(10.662B); '18-15.665B(11.579B); '19-16.995B(12.579B); '20-18.461B(13.702B )
Earnings: '14-$7.65/sh($5.98/sh); '15-$8.38/sh($6.25/sh); '16-$8.94/sh($7.00/sh); '17-$9.55/sh($7.77/sh); '18-$10.09/sh($8.35/sh); '19-$10.99/sh($9.08/sh); '20-$11.96/sh($9.87/sh)

JP Morgan
Sovaldi: '14-11.4427B/(8.336B); '15-11.849B(9.488B); '16 - 12.100B(10.724BB
Earnings: '14-$7.45/sh($5.61/sh); '15-$8.35/sh($6.52/sh); '16-$9.05/sh($7.54/sh)

Nomura
Hep C: '14-12.575B(9.092B); '15-16.616B(12.599B); '16-19.951B(15.131B); '17-22.232B(15.736B); '18-21.735B(15.830B); '19-19.132B/(15.037B); '20-16.933B/(14.453B)
Earnings: '14-$8.03/sh($5.01/sh); '15-$9.70/sh($7.24/sh); '16-$11.50/sh($8.92/sh); '17-$12.90/sh($9.83/sh); '18-$13.20/sh($10.45/sh); '19-12.16/sh($10.25/sh); '20-$11.27/sh($10.15/sh)

Citi
Sovaldi; '14-12.997B($9.4B); '15-13.656B; '16-14.080B; '17-13.344B; '18-14.551; '19-11.520B; '20-9.031
Earnings: '14-$8.30/sh($6.29/sh); '15-$9.27/sh($7.71/sh); '16-$9.80/sh; '17-$10.23/sh; '18-$11.07/sh; '19-$9.52/sh; '20-$8.98

UBS
HCV: '14-$12.4B(8.478B); '15 - 11.211B; '16 - 13.721B - no change WRONG
Earnings - '14-$8.28/sh($6.26/sh); '15-$9.71/sh($7.90/sh); '16-$10.97/sh($9.58/sh); '17-$12.25/sh($11.14/sh); '18-$12.49/sh($11.57/sh)

Jefferies - no new estimates
(HCV: '14 - 9.548B; '15 - 12.282B; '16 - 17.174; '17 - 17.855
Earnings; '14 - $6.04/sh; '15 - $7.69/sh; '16 - $11.19/sh; '17 - $12.07)

Deutsche Bank - limited new numbers
Sov: '14-11.7B(10.638B); ('15 - 14.596B; '16 - 16.599B; '17 - 17.528B; '18 - 15.720B; '19 - 14.787B; '20 - 14.822; '21 - 14.825; '22 - 14.506B; '23 - 13.702B; '24 - 13.702B; '25 - 12.275B; '26 - 12.850B; '27 - 12.415B)
Earnings: '14-$7.4/sh($6.65/sh); '15-$.78($9.76/sh); ('16 - $11.74/sh; '17 - $13.27/sh; '18 - $13.12/sh; '19 - $12.99/sh; '20 - $13.92/sh; '21 - $14.34/sh; '22 - $14.28/sh; '23 - $13.81/sh; '24 - $14.04/sh; '25 - $14.42; '26 - $14.08/sh; '27 - $15.04)

Morgan Stanley
Sov -'14-12.894B; '15-14.073B; '16-13.649B; '17-10.045B; '18-8.471B; '19-7.219B; '20-7.016B
Earnings: '14-$8.17/sh; '15-$9.19/sh; '16-$10.18/sh; '17-$9.32/sh; '18-$8.96/sh; '19-$8.05/sh; '20-$8.20

Other comments (summarized by me):

Goldman - (1) outer year sustainability of hep C and HIV sales are questions; (2) models $4.7-5.9B of buybacks over 4 years; (3) target price moves from $70 to $76 based on DCF analysis

Credit Swisse - (1) Big issues of HCV market dynamics, esp. price, "What's next," and capital allocation; (2) net income helped by lower than expected tax rate; (3) retaining $110 price target based on 14.5X '15 eps

Wells Fargo - (1) compellingly valued due to significant HCV opportunity and multiple potential blockbuster shots on goal in pipeline; (2) Q3 reduction in Sov sales and then significant pickup in Q4; (3) potential for considerably lower costs for all-oral and likely availability of competitor will help reduce payer concerns; (4) price target goes to $110-112 from $98-101

RBC - (1) 3 levers for p/e expansion - business development, capital allocation, pipeline; (2) thinks ABBV prices around $84K and market expects competitors to be rational with no price wars, (3) base case of $102/sh on 12x '15 est of $8.50/sh, with upside of $120 and downside of $77, (4) market will open from 393K under care to 1.4M patients

BMO -(1) price target of $165 (20 x $8.94, discounted @ 20%); (2) Q3 Sov sales @ 3.341B

JP Morgan - (1) Q3 est $1.63/sh; (2) positives - aggressive adoption of all-oral in 2H14, phase 3 in 3Q14 for TAF, upward bias in '14 and '15 for Sov, attractive valuation at 10.5'15 est and 3 yr EPS Cagr of 65%; (3) stated 17% Sov use with Olysio (wrong); (4) $110 target on 12/15 on 13x est. of $8.35

Nomura - (1) price unlikely to go higher based on Q2 HCV sales, as guidance implies no growth in 2H14, (2) price discount to S&P ('15 p/e 10.9x vs 14.9x) Gild top value pick, (3) $141 target price

Citi - (1) will leverage cash flow of $130B in next ten years for acquisitions, (2) access for Sov is broader than expected, (3) target of $111 based on 12 x '15e of $9.27 - substantial discount based on long-term uncertainty about longevity of hep C revenue stream

UBS - (1) top pick among large caps based on de-risking and value creating things over 12 months, most upside to '14-'15 estimates, lowest p/e on '15 est, TAF providing opportunity to extend HIV franchise, and under appreciated oncology program; (2) $115 price target, with $142 upside and $60 downside

Jefferies - (1) 70% of usage with interferon-free regimen indicating payer tolerance for expensive combinations and raises questions on pricing flexibility, (2) EU reimbursements in small countries has led to pricing in high $60K range, higher than $55K used in model, (3) maintains $84 target, but new estimated sales and earnings to come

Deutsche Bank - (1) 10% switching from Atripla and Truvado adds $3/sh to model; (2) Street expecting $65K for 8 week all-oral, but probably more and if price at $84K, it would add $22/sh to model; (3) Q3 model $2.2B of US Sov, $592M OUS (and $849M in Q4), (4) target $142

Morgan Stanley - (1) risks to sustainability of HCV franchise, (2) expect muted stock reaction given high expectations, (3) price target of $81, with bull case at $145 and bear case of $34 (see chart in my twitter post)

[Kara-ben-nemsi]

einen hab ich noch, einen hab ich noch:

Wells Fargo erhöht von 101 auf 112$

[Kara-ben-nemsi]

Analysten

JP Morgan erhöht Kursziel von Gilead auf 110$
"Overweight"

hab ich sie jetzt alle erwähnt??

[MarcusRWD]

Ich schaus mir immer auf Bloomberg an da man es uebers Terminal taeglich bekommt. Habe sozusagen in der ersten Juliwoche geschaut und da war es in etwas gleich, aber wir brauchen uns ja hier nicht ueber Kruemel zu streiten... Fragt man sich was die Shortis bewegt bei solchen Erwartungen solche Positionen aufzubauen?

[Kara-ben-nemsi]

vor 3 wochen war der short interest ca 1,7 mio tiefer.

hier sieht man eine schöne auflistung aller 14-tägigen werte:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/gild/short-interest