Baidu.com - NASDAQ: BIDU crashed - dieses Jahr noch unter 30 US Dollar? (Seite 133)

[Rambus2007]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.713.604 von Karlll am 15.12.10 11:38:02

Auf deutsch:

Peking 15.12.2010 (www.emfis.com) Nach Angaben der Nachrichtenagentur "Reuters" rechnet das Management von Baidu Inc (NASDAQ: BIDU - Nachrichten) . im nächsten Jahr mit nachlassenden Wachstumsraten. Allerdings seien in erster Linie die sehr hohen Vergleichszahlen dafür verantwortlich.

Der Betreiber von Chinas größter Suchmaschine konnte im dritten Quartal den Nettogewinn im Jahresvergleich mehr als verdoppeln, während der Umsatz fast um 100 Prozent zulegte. Laut Vizechefin Haoyu Shen habe vor allem die Umstellung auf das Phoenix Nest-System dazu beigetragen, das die User mit maßgeschneiderten Werbeangeboten versorgt. Die zeitweilige Blockierung des Konkurrenten Google im chinesischen Netz habe nur minimalen Einfluss auf die Quartalszahlen gehabt. Baidu erwägt derzeit Firmenübernahmen, um auch in Zukunft expandieren zu können.

Sind das Voraussetzungen für ein KGV von 80?

[Karlll]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.701.301 von Karlll am 13.12.10 16:33:36

Na, mal gut, daß ich den Konjunktiv gewählt hatte.


Baidu sees growth rate slowing in 2011
4:38am EST

By Melanie Lee and Li Ran

SHANGHAI/BEIJING (Reuters) - China's top search engine, Baidu Inc (BIDU.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), sees its top-line and bottom-line growth rates softening over the next year on a higher base of comparison, as it eyes acquisitions and "contextual" ads to boost growth in the future.

"No ... We have such a bigger base," Haoyu Shen, Baidu's senior vice president of business operations, said at the Reuters China Investment Summit when asked whether the firm can keep up its stellar top and bottom-line growth rates into 2011.

Baidu said in October its third-quarter net profit more than doubled compared to a year ago, while its revenue almost doubled.

"We had a major re-acceleration this year, and that's due to a few reasons," said Shen, citing the rebound in the Chinese economy, the switchover to its new keyword advertising system and Google's (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) scaling down in China.

"For these reasons, it most likely won't repeat itself next year," he said.

Baidu shares have soared more than 160 percent this year after the firm's main competitor, Google Inc, said it would shut its China search page after a serious hacking episode and on censorship concerns.

Shen said the "Google effect" -- an increase in traffic resulting from disruption in U.S. company's Chinese operations earlier this year -- boosted Baidu's business by a small amount and is largely over by now. He said Baidu's strong performance so far this year was due to the introduction of its Phoenix Nest keyword advertising system late last year, which was ramped up fully this year.

The system has enabled Baidu, named after an ancient Song dynasty poem, to make money from its clients as well as offer more value added services.

Shen said traffic acquisition costs as a percentage of revenue will come in near 10 to 11 percent for 2010.

He declined to give a forecast for next year.

STILL A SEARCH FIRM

Baidu was the only Asian name in the top 100 holdings of the world's 30 biggest hedge funds in the third quarter of 2010, according to Thomson Reuters' StreetSight. The hedge funds increased their holdings of Baidu by roughly a fifth in the third quarter from the second quarter, the data shows.

Although Baidu has made forays into e-commerce and online video this year, its focus will still be search functions, Shen said.

Baidu has a tie-up with Japanese online retailer Rakuten Inc 4755.Q to operate an online shopping mall, and also formed Qiyi.com, a joint venture offering licensed online video content with Hulu backer Providence Equity.

Shen said both ventures will not contribute meaningfully to Baidu's bottom line in the near term, but will raise ad dollar spending among its major clients, especially for e-commerce.

"It's growing very fast; it's already meaningful. I hear people saying for Google it is 30 to 40 percent of their revenue, but for Baidu it is not that big... eventually it might grow to that level," Shen said.

China is the world's largest Internet market by users at 420 million online. China's search industry, in which Baidu dominates with an 73 percent market share by revenue, was worth 3.13 billion yuan ($470 million) in the third quarter, according to iResearch.

Earlier this month, Baidu invested in TG.com.cn, an e-commerce website for home decorations. At the end of the third quarter, Baidu had 5 billion yuan ($751 million) in cash and equivalents on its balance sheet.

"We are definitely more open-minded than a year ago when we looked at (M&A) opportunities," Shen said at the summit, held at the Reuters office in Beijing.

"It is exciting times now when you look at e-commerce and wireless...With our leading position in search and the resources we have on our books...it makes sense for us to look at these more open-mindedly" he said, adding the focus of acquisitions or investments would be mostly Chinese companies.

Baidu is also eyeing new growth in contextual advertising, which uses a web page's keywords to choose what ad to display on that page. Shen said there will be no big boost for its contextual ads platform in the near term but that the firm was upgrading the system.

"Contextual is relatively small for us, it's much bigger from our understanding for Google globally and China," Shen said.

"The way we think about it, we need another sort of "Phoenix Nest" revolution, because Phoenix Nest is for paid search advertising, but we need a similar thing for contextual and when that happens we will see huge improvement in contextual revenue," he said.

(Editing by Ken Wills and Lincoln Feast)

[Karlll]

Könnte der Tag von Baidu werden, heute.

[Karlll]

Sehr umfangreiches Zahlenwerk zu Baidu !!!


Baidu.com Stays Buy at Chinavestor
Saturday, 11 December 2010 10:25 Munther Albusaidi Fundamental Analysis




http://www.chinavestor.com/fundamental-analysis/72657-baiduc…

[Karlll]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.657.893 von derwolf46 am 06.12.10 21:46:52

Hier noch einmal die diesjährigen Zahlen:

1.Q. = 0,20
2.Q. = 0,35
3.Q. = 0,45
4.Q. = 0,46= Konsens
2010= 1,36 entspricht beim Kurs von 108,--US-$ einem KGV von 79,4



Wenn wir einmal voraussetzen, daß Baidu in den ersten beiden Quartalen 2011 je 0,50 US-$
und dem 3. und 4. Quartal je 0,60 US-$ realisieren kann, wären wir bei 2,20 US-$ in 2011.

Das entspräche beim derzeitigen Kurs von 108,-- US-$ einem KGV von 49,1


Ich denke die geschätzten Earnings für 2011 sollten realisierbar sein, und das KGV von
49,1 für 2011 wäre für diesen tollen Wert sicher auch nicht zuviel.

Schauen wir mal, ob es nicht möglich ist, in diesem Jahr noch einen Kurs von 120,--US-$
zu erzielen.

Es muß halt mal ein richtiger Kauftag her.

Gruß
Karlll

[derwolf46]

jetzt müssen nur noch die 115dollar fallen, dann ist der himmel das ziel. das bollingerband und ein paar shorties bremsen noch aber das dürfte sich diese woche erledigen, wenn alles gut geht.

[Karlll]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.651.331 von fatboy64 am 06.12.10 10:27:47

Auch heute sah es zu Beginn prächtig aus, aber jetzt wird stramm verkauft.

Aber ich denke, wir werden schon wieder einen Tag im Dezember bekommen, an dem gekauft wird, als ob es morgen keine mehr gäbe.

[fatboy64]

Baidu Rises 2.69% on Heavy Volume: Watch For Potential Pullback (BIDU)
Written on Mon, 12/06/2010 - 1:01amBy Sarah Hashim-Waris

Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) traded in a range yesterday that spanned from a low of $105.34 to a high of $109.87. Yesterday, the shares gained 2.69%, which took the trading range above the 3-day high of $108.30 on volume of 9.3 million shares. Often times after large one-day gains, short term traders will seek to take profits and, as such, investors should be cautious.
Shares of Baidu are currently trading above their 50-day moving average (MA) of $105.27 and above their 200-day MA of $79.42. Look for the MA to provide support for a short-term pullback in the shares.
SmarTrend currently has shares of Baidu in an Uptrend and issued the Uptrend alert on September 03, 2010 at $83.92. The stock has risen 26.8% since the Uptrend alert was issued.
SmarTrend expects the share price to pullback toward the $108.30 support level. Afterwards, we expect it to move upward with its peers in the SmarTrend Internet Information Providers industry.

[Karlll]

The Baidu 'Bubble' Destroys Any Real Valuation
by: Daniel Harrison December 05, 2010



If you are holding Baidu (BIDU) right now, get out while the going is good; you might want to buy some Yahoo (YHOO) with all the money you’ve made this year.

Take a look at the following table, which assumes trailing multiples and annualized (for the fourth quarter) FY10 earnings:


Compared to any of the American search engine giants, Baidu’s numbers are way out. This is the classic illustration of a bubble – where a single concept (in this case, domination of the Chinese consumer market) totally distorts any reasonable valuation of the price of both assets and earnings.

No Surprises From the Big 2 …

First, let’s look at the market value of America’s largest two online consumer tech providers: Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG). On a price/earnings basis, it is safe to say that neither is an outlier given that Mr. Softie can’t seem to grow earnings at all while Google has met the percentage growth that is standard for the industry in 2010.

In terms of the market capitalization of both companies divided by the difference between the firms’ assets and liabilities (price/book) there’s not a lot to raise your eyebrows at either. While Microsoft has a high return on equity (I have used the crude but tried-and-tested formula of net profits/market cap), you would expect to see this in light of the lack of growth in earnings.

… But “Lei Lo Mo,” What’s going on with Baidu and Yahoo?

Now consider this. Buyers of Baidu are paying 90 times earnings, and 46 times the break-up value of the company in order to get in on Chinese consumer action. Sometimes it’s OK to pay a high price for both earnings and book value if the return on equity is growing aggressively, as this means that the company is leveraging the resources at its disposal in order to give back more to its shareholders the next year. In the case of Baidu, however, the company has the lowest ROE of the pack, and has grown its earnings only marginally more this year than has Yahoo.

Added to that, Baidu's ROE growth is pathetic given its massive P/B ratio: at best (using 2009 data) its at half the rate of Yahoo's, nearer to Google's, which is more than four times larger. Baidu ought to be valued at half the price it is now -- and that's being generous. The reverse is true for Yahoo, however.

Okay, okay, I hear you say. Not Yahoo again; the eternal value play that’s lost 60% of its market value in the last 5 years after multitudinous management overhauls and false-start product launches.

But consider this: Yahoo has managed to grow its earnings over the last year by the same percentage as Baidu, while it still trades at 21 times earnings and 1.4 times book. Those multiples are the second-lowest and lowest, respectively, of all the Big Four. What’s more, with a projected $11.5 billion in earnings for FY10, Yahoo is expected to earn more than double what Baidu will this year – so those earnings should in theory be harder to grow by the same amount.

All of this is why the American internet giant has an ROE growth of 238% this year vs. Baidu’s 140%. In other words, Yahoo is putting your money to work more efficiently than is its Chinese counterpart.

Part of the reason for the company’s stunningly undervalued earnings and asset prices vs. its eye-popping Eastern-style ROE growth is the oft-overlooked 37% stake it has in the $8.7 billion Chinese e-commerce upstart Alibaba.com (ALBCF.PK). That stake has bolstered Yahoo’s balance sheet by around $3 billion in the previous five years, and continues to offer an investor keen on riding on the dragon’s coattails a cheap way of doing so.

One often cited investment analogy in Asia is the Chinese word for crisis: It is the sum of the characters meaning “danger” and “opportunity”. If you are searching for value, make sure your money is on the right side of that character equation and the Year of the Rabbit might well live up to the sort of productivity for which its namesake is world-reknown.

Disclosure: No positions held
About the author: Daniel Harrison

[Karlll]

Seit ca 6 Wochen konsolidiert es um ca. 10 %, besser kann es doch gar
nicht laufen.

Es wird demnächst sicher auf erratische Weise gen Norden gehen.

Wenn es halt etwas länger dauert ist halt die Grundtugend des Börsianers
gefragt, nämlich "Steiß".

Gruß
Karlll