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vietnam noch in den kinderschuhen,aber bald erwachsen (Seite 77)


ISIN: KYG9361Y1026 | WKN: A0RDUL
2,206
22.03.16
Stuttgart
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Neuigkeiten zu Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Ltd

Handeln Sie jetzt den Fonds Vinacapital Vietn... ohne Ausgabeaufschlag! jetzt Informieren

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Leider ist der Vietnam Infrastructure in Deutschland praktisch nicht handelbar; die Geld/Brief-Spanne ist astronomisch. Kürzlich wurden >50000 Stücke in Berlin gehandelt, im Kurswert gut 1000 Euro unter der kurze Zeit später in London gehandelten gleichen Stückzahl. Ein Schelm wer Böses dabei denkt ....
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.107.473 von dackelbert am 22.10.14 20:10:50
Zitat von dackelbert: Den Aktionären des Vietnam Infrastructure wird nun vorgeschlagen den Fonds aufzuteilen in eine Tranche die die börsennotierten Aktien hält, und zwar als offenen Fonds und eine Tranche die die private Equity Investments hält.


Danke Dir für diese Info, die ging bisher an mir vorbei!

Auf http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news… habe ich sie gefunden zum Nachlesen.

Na, da hatte ich wohl einen Glückstreffer als ich mir letztes Jahr einen Klotz VNI über London orderte :) Muss aber auch mal sein, hab mit anderen Investments 2014 auch genug Geld verbrannt. Der Tag fängt gut an!!

Tipp: Wer ein wenig größere Stückzahlen sucht sollte nicht über die Londoner Börse ordern, sondern direkt einen der beiden Market Maker (insbesondere LCFR Rothshild) kontaktieren und OTC handeln. Die Spreads sind meist besser und man zahlt keine UK Stempelsteuer.

OK, war in den Wind gesprochen: Gilt nur wer nicht in Deutschland steuerpflichtig ist denn in Deutschland gilt meines Wissens der in UK gehandelte VNI (genauso wie der VOF Originalfonds, also nicht das Zertifikat drauf) als schwarzer Fond. Diese ominöse deutsche Steuerregel ist sowas von hirnrissig und das Argument dafür absolut hinfällig: Weil inzwischen auch Kursgewinne wie Dividenden besteuert werden gibt es keinen Grund mehr für diese Steuer-Regel - aber das ist ein anderes Thema und nicht meine Baustelle.
Der aktuelle Numis Report trägt den Titel:
Vietnam Closed-End Funds
Improving Outlook and Attractive Valuations
und ist stolze 90 Seiten dick.

(Numis ist neben LCR Rothshild einer der Market Maker in closed End Fund Vehikeln, wie es der VinaCapital OF, VEI, Vinaland, PXP, Vietnam Holding usw. alle sind).

Im anderen Thread http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1179992-1-10/haen… habe ich was zum DWS VIET geschrieben, und unter http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1071364-991-1000/… was zur Vietnam Holding.

Hier nun ein Auszug aus dem Numis Report:

Improving Outlook and Attractive Valuations
Vietnam’s potential is widely recognised, but investors have suffered from a series of false dawns over the past decade as credit-fuelled economic expansion has resulted in inflation. A period of austerity since 2011 has brought stability to both prices and the currency, but tight credit conditions have hit domestic demand, resulting in real GDP growth slowing to just over 5% pa from 2012-2014, from 7-8% pa from 2000-2008. However, there are now signs of increasing confidence, with economic growth forecast to increase to 6.2% in 2015.
● The improving outlook in Vietnam has been reflected in the performance of its stock market, and the Vietnam Index doubled (US$ total return) from 2012 to mid-2014, largely driven by a rerating. However, there has been a setback in recent months, with the Index falling 10% since early September, with oil related stocks hit particularly hard.
This has resulted in a historic P/E ratio of 13.8x which we believe offers decent value in the context of expected earnings growth of over 10% in 2015.
● In our view, the best way to access Vietnam is through closed-end funds (CEFs). There are currently nine CEFs in our universe with combined net assets of $2.8bn. All of these were launched prior to 2008 and benefit from experienced, locally based managers. NAV performance has generally been good, but the sector has continued to suffer from wide discounts. In our view this presents an opportunity to enhance returns.
There have been significant improvements in corporate governance and portfolio transparency in recent years. In addition, most funds have introduced regular share buyback programmes, and corporate action is picking up, with both PXP Vietnam and Vietnam Infrastructure due to open-end shortly. On the downside, management fees are still high and trading liquidity is patchy for many of the funds, particularly for those traded solely on an OTC basis.
Our core recommendation is VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity (VOF) which provides broad exposure to the domestic economy via a multi-asset approach. VOF’s exposure to real estate development (c.20% of assets) has been a drag on performance and sentiment in recent years, but the outlook for this asset class is improving. In future, the emphasis will be on listed equities and private equity, as well as exploiting the mispricing of SOE privatisations. It is the largest, most liquid fund in the peer group, with a market cap of $563m, and is trading on an attractive discount of 25%. The Board is now fully independent, and has implemented an active buy-back programme.
In addition, it is considering moving VOF’s listing from AIM to the main market of the London SE in order to raise the fund's profile.
● In this report we also review the prospects for other Vietnam focused CEFs. These include VEIL ($431m market cap, 20% discount), managed by Dragon Capital, which offers purer exposure to the listed equity market, and VinaLand ($255m, 36%), the real estate fund which is currently focused on realising assets and returning capital to shareholders.
Offenbar werden jetzt tatsächlich die Beschränkungen für Ausländer gelockert.
Wenn ich es richtig lese werden sie für viele Branchen sogar komplett abgeschafft, womit also sogar 100% möglich wären

VinaCapital issues commentary to the lifting of Vietnam’s foreign ownership limits
Today the Ministry of Finance (MOF) confirmed that the revised Decree 58 has been signed and a key part is the lifting of foreign ownership restrictions for Vietnamese listed equity. Details of the decree are still being finalized but we expect that the foreign caps will move from 49% to 100%, with exceptions to select sectors such as banking.
After a difficult period, Vietnam has established a sustainable growth rate of 6% and Decree 58 allows foreign investors to take a greater role in future growth. It is a game-changer, brings Vietnam closer to fulfilling its WTO commitments, and may serve as a catalyst for ascension to MSCI’s Emerging Market Index.
Foreign ownership limits on listed companies have been a major hurdle to capital markets, deterring many foreign investors. The limits have effectively capped the level of foreign participation and depressed valuations, so there has been much anticipation regarding the lifting of these limits.
Rarely has the world seen such a young market make such change at this stage of its development. South Africa is the closest example but that was twenty years ago and they possessed a properly functioning domestic market. In other cases whenever the rights of foreigners were allowed to exceed 50% it has typically been only in restricted or non-voting shares. Examples include Korea (1992-1998) and Taiwan (1966-2005).
What can investors expect with the lifting of foreign limits? We analyse the potential impact on the market and investment flows.
Market re-rating and rally
Vietnam has historically suffered from a liquidity discount compared to its regional peers. Measured on a simple PE basis, the market currently trades at 13 times trailing PE, with a liquidity discount in recent years of between 25% and 35%. With the market opened, a greater level of participation from both local and foreign investors is expected. This increased liquidity will go some way to narrowing the discount.
A catalyst for SOE equitisation
As markets re-rate and liquidity increases we expect a more exciting period of increased valuation to encourage greater participation from state-owned enterprises and private companies. As the government starts to clear the backlog in its privatisation program, the options for investors through public listing, the sale to strategic investors and a likely increase in consolidation through M&A activity is exciting, especially in high-growth sectors such as food & beverage, property and infrastructure. The sectors that the government considers strategic and in which they will not sell
controlling stakes are expected to include banking, telecommunications, airlines, and defence companies. However, given that the government wants to reduce the number of banks by half by 2017, we could see more relaxation in this sector.
One such example, despite being in a restricted sector, is MobiFone, the second largest mobile operator slated for sale for the past 10 years, and which now has until June 2016 to be privatized within sector limits as mandated by the Prime Minster. The company generated approximately USD2 billion of revenue in 2014, with an expected market valuation in the region of USD3 - 3.5 billion.
Development of a properly functioning stock market
Vietnam’s market capitalisation is currently USD60 billion, with daily trading volume averaging USD100 million, and foreign participation at less than 15% largely due to foreign limits. 26 companies are currently at the foreign room limit, with combined market capitalisation of USD10.2 billion or 17% of total market capitalisation. This lack of depth in the market, and the resulting domestic investor bias, assisted by margin lending levels, has featured as predominant reasons for market volatility. Greater foreign investment and the depth created by new listings will aid in reducing this volatility.
One of the key criteria for MSCI Emerging Markets inclusion is having a capital market open to foreign investment. The revised Decree 58 now clears the way for Vietnam to qualify for Emerging Market status, and given the MSCI Emerging Markets Index attracts USD1.4 trillion of investment, Vietnam’s eventual inclusion could provide further upside of 15-20% to investors.
Conclusion
The revised Decree 58 is an exciting development and of great importance as it will open Vietnam up to the world making the market more competitive, accessible and investor friendly. Furthermore the market will benefit from a re-rating and a bigger allocation by global fund managers. The liquidity gap will close, volatility will reduce, and renewed interest in the privatisation program will deepen the market. Longer term, Vietnam also becomes a strong candidate for MSCI Emerging Markets inclusion. At VinaCapital we believe this dramatic lifting of foreign ownership limits will immediately make Vietnam the most attractive Asian frontier market.
Comments of Andy Ho, Chief Investment Officer of VinaCapital and the Managing Director of the Vietnam Opportunity Fund (AIM: VOF), the largest listed Vietnam fund on the London Stock Exchanges AIM board.
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