Globale Erwärmung durch Treibhauseffekt - nur ein Mythos der Linken? (Seite 4526)
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.395.876 von SmartCap am 15.06.09 18:15:18Es gibt gewisse Unterschiede zwischen den Modellen der VWL und denen der Klimaforschung. Angefangen damit, daß Moleküle nicht denken, wollen und wünschen. Die VWL geht mit weitaus einfacheren Modellen an weitaus schwierigere Probleme ran.
Ich habe VWL studiert und fand und finde die Modellanalytik der Investmentbanken bei verschiedenen Finanztransaktionen hanebüchen.
Dafür finde ich, hätte ich es aber nicht studieren brauchen.
Da stecken schlicht und ergreifend oft empirisch nicht haltbare beziehungsweise klar Interessen geleitete Annahmen drin. Das kann schon ein Gymnasiast erkennen. Aber eine Generation von BWLern und Wirtschaftswissenschaftlern glaubt kritiklos an die Bewertungs- und Prognosemodelle.
Aber die Herde folgte der Herde. Solange das Label der Wissenschaft gegebenenfalls garniert mit Nobelpreisträgern drauf pappt ...
sc
Dafür finde ich, hätte ich es aber nicht studieren brauchen.
Da stecken schlicht und ergreifend oft empirisch nicht haltbare beziehungsweise klar Interessen geleitete Annahmen drin. Das kann schon ein Gymnasiast erkennen. Aber eine Generation von BWLern und Wirtschaftswissenschaftlern glaubt kritiklos an die Bewertungs- und Prognosemodelle.
Aber die Herde folgte der Herde. Solange das Label der Wissenschaft gegebenenfalls garniert mit Nobelpreisträgern drauf pappt ...
sc
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.395.185 von SmartCap am 15.06.09 17:02:09
für den Laien verständlich die wichtigsten Modell- und Prognoseannahmen darzustellen.
Wenn die Geschichte so einfach wäre, müsste man nicht viele Semester büffeln ...
Leider wahr - allerdings gibt es auch Wissenschaftler, die der Ansicht sind, dass man einen Sachverhalt erst dann komplett verstanden hat, wenn man ihn auch in der Umgangssprache formulieren kann. Wie das in bestimmten Disziplinen funktionieren mag ist dann allerdings eine andere Frage.
für den Laien verständlich die wichtigsten Modell- und Prognoseannahmen darzustellen.
Wenn die Geschichte so einfach wäre, müsste man nicht viele Semester büffeln ...
Leider wahr - allerdings gibt es auch Wissenschaftler, die der Ansicht sind, dass man einen Sachverhalt erst dann komplett verstanden hat, wenn man ihn auch in der Umgangssprache formulieren kann. Wie das in bestimmten Disziplinen funktionieren mag ist dann allerdings eine andere Frage.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.395.524 von AdHick am 15.06.09 17:36:57Falls das untergegangen sein sollte
vielen Dank für eure Hinweise und Bemühungen!
sc
vielen Dank für eure Hinweise und Bemühungen!
sc
Kurzbeschreibung eines Teilaspektes:
"ECHAM4 short description
This is a short overview of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM. The model is based on the weather forecast model of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Numerous modifications have been applied to this model at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ) to make it suitable for climate forecasts, and it is now a model of the fourth generation. A detailed description of the ECHAM4 model can be found in Roeckner et al. (1996).
In the standard model version a 19-level hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate system is used. The vertical domain extends up to the pressure level of 10 hPa. Prognostic variables are vorticity, divergence, logarithm of surface pressure, temperature, specific humidity and mixing ratio of total cloud water. Except for the water components the prognostic variables are represented by spherical harmonics with triangular truncation at wavenumber 42 (T42) in its standard version. A semi-implicit time stepping scheme is used together with a weak time filter. The time step for dynamics and physics is 24 min (for T42 horizontal resolution). The radiation time step is 2 hours. Both seasonal and diurnal cycles in solar forcing are simulated. For the transport of water vapour and cloud water a semi-Lagrangian scheme is used (Williamson and Rasch, 1994).
Horizontal diffusion is expressed in the form of a hyper-Laplacian which essentially confines the damping to the high-wavenumber end of the spectrum. To avoid fictituous reflection at the upper boundary, a high-diffusion sponge zone is realized through a gradual decrease of the order of the scheme in the lower stratosphere. The diffusion operator is applied to vorticity, divergence and temperature but not to the water components which are advected by the semi-Lagrangian scheme.
The turbulent surface fluxes are calculated from Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (Louis, 1979). Within and above the atmospheric boundary layer, a higher-order closure scheme is used to compute the turbulent transfer of momentum, heat, moisture, and cloud water. The eddy diffusion coefficients are calculated as functions of turbulent kinetic energy E which is obtained from the respective rate equation (Brinkop and Roeckner, 1995), including turbulent transport of E, generation or destruction by wind shear and buoyancy flux, and dissipation. The interaction between cloud and turbulence is represented by processes such as the vertical exchange of turbulent kinetic energy generated through radiative cooling at cloud top, the impact of cloud water on the buoyancy flux, and cloud top entrainment through the turbulent flux of cloud water.
Gravity wave drag associated with orographic gravity waves is simulated after Miller et al. (1989), using directionally dependent subgrid-scale orographic variances obtained from a high-resolution U.S. Navy dataset. Surface stress due to gravity waves excited by stably stratified flow over irregular terrain is calculated from linear theory and dimensional considerations. The surface wave stress is a function of low-level wind, orographic variance and buoyancy frequency. In addition, high-drag states are considerd when the flow becomes hydraulic at low levels due to the breaking of lee waves. The vertical profile is calculated from a local wave Richardson which describes the onset of turbulence due to convective instability and the turbulent breakdown approaching a critical level.
The soil model comprises the budgets of heat and water in the soil, the snow pack over land and the heat budget of land ice. Vegetation effects such as the interception of rain and snow in the canopy and the stomatal control of evapotranspiration are parameterized in a highly idealized way. The local runoff scheme is based on catchment considerations and takes into account subgrid-scale variations of field capacity over inhomogeneous terrain. Land surface parameters such as background albedo, roughness length, vegetation type, leaf area index and soil parameters like water holding capacity, heat capacity and thermal conductivity have been compiled for ECHAM 4 (Claussen et al., 1994), consistent with the Olson et al. (1983) definition of ecosystem complexes.
The parameterization of cumulus convection (shallow, mid-level, and deep), is based on the bulk mass flux concept of Tiedtke (1989). However, according to the suggestions of Nordeng (1994), organized entrainment is related to buoyancy instead of moisture convergence, organized detrainment is computed for a spectrum of clouds detraining at different heights, and an adjustment-type closure is used for deep cumulus convection instead of the moisture convergence closure applied in the Tiedtke scheme. Moreover, the water loading is considered in the buoyancy calculation, the cloud water detrained at the top of cumulus clouds is entering as a source term in the stratiform cloud water equation.
The stratiform cloud water content is calculated from the respective budget equation including sources and sinks due to phase changes and precipitation formation by coalescence of cloud droplets and gravitational settling of ice crystals (Roeckner, 1995). The convective cloud water detrained at the top of cumulus clouds is used as a source term in the stratiform cloud water equation. Fractional cloud cover is parameterized in terms of relative humidity.
The radiation code has been adopted from the ECMWF model (Fouquart and Bonnel, 1980; Morcrette et al., 1986) with a few modifications like the consideration of additional greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide and 16 CFCs), the 14.6 µm band of ozone and various types of aerosols (optionally). Moreover, the water vapour continuum has been revised to include temperature weighted band averages of e-type absorption and also a band dependent ratio of (p-e)-type to e-type continuum absorption (Giorgetta and Wild, 1995). The single scattering properties of cloud droplets and ice crystals are derived from Mie theory with suitable adaptation to the broad-band model (Rockel et al., 1991), and the effective radius of droplets and ice crystals is parameterized in terms of the liquid and ice water content, respectively (Roeckner, 1995)."
http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/wissenschaft/modelle/echam/echam…
Wenn die Geschichte so einfach wäre, müsste man nicht viele Semester büffeln ...
"ECHAM4 short description
This is a short overview of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM. The model is based on the weather forecast model of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Numerous modifications have been applied to this model at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ) to make it suitable for climate forecasts, and it is now a model of the fourth generation. A detailed description of the ECHAM4 model can be found in Roeckner et al. (1996).
In the standard model version a 19-level hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate system is used. The vertical domain extends up to the pressure level of 10 hPa. Prognostic variables are vorticity, divergence, logarithm of surface pressure, temperature, specific humidity and mixing ratio of total cloud water. Except for the water components the prognostic variables are represented by spherical harmonics with triangular truncation at wavenumber 42 (T42) in its standard version. A semi-implicit time stepping scheme is used together with a weak time filter. The time step for dynamics and physics is 24 min (for T42 horizontal resolution). The radiation time step is 2 hours. Both seasonal and diurnal cycles in solar forcing are simulated. For the transport of water vapour and cloud water a semi-Lagrangian scheme is used (Williamson and Rasch, 1994).
Horizontal diffusion is expressed in the form of a hyper-Laplacian which essentially confines the damping to the high-wavenumber end of the spectrum. To avoid fictituous reflection at the upper boundary, a high-diffusion sponge zone is realized through a gradual decrease of the order of the scheme in the lower stratosphere. The diffusion operator is applied to vorticity, divergence and temperature but not to the water components which are advected by the semi-Lagrangian scheme.
The turbulent surface fluxes are calculated from Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (Louis, 1979). Within and above the atmospheric boundary layer, a higher-order closure scheme is used to compute the turbulent transfer of momentum, heat, moisture, and cloud water. The eddy diffusion coefficients are calculated as functions of turbulent kinetic energy E which is obtained from the respective rate equation (Brinkop and Roeckner, 1995), including turbulent transport of E, generation or destruction by wind shear and buoyancy flux, and dissipation. The interaction between cloud and turbulence is represented by processes such as the vertical exchange of turbulent kinetic energy generated through radiative cooling at cloud top, the impact of cloud water on the buoyancy flux, and cloud top entrainment through the turbulent flux of cloud water.
Gravity wave drag associated with orographic gravity waves is simulated after Miller et al. (1989), using directionally dependent subgrid-scale orographic variances obtained from a high-resolution U.S. Navy dataset. Surface stress due to gravity waves excited by stably stratified flow over irregular terrain is calculated from linear theory and dimensional considerations. The surface wave stress is a function of low-level wind, orographic variance and buoyancy frequency. In addition, high-drag states are considerd when the flow becomes hydraulic at low levels due to the breaking of lee waves. The vertical profile is calculated from a local wave Richardson which describes the onset of turbulence due to convective instability and the turbulent breakdown approaching a critical level.
The soil model comprises the budgets of heat and water in the soil, the snow pack over land and the heat budget of land ice. Vegetation effects such as the interception of rain and snow in the canopy and the stomatal control of evapotranspiration are parameterized in a highly idealized way. The local runoff scheme is based on catchment considerations and takes into account subgrid-scale variations of field capacity over inhomogeneous terrain. Land surface parameters such as background albedo, roughness length, vegetation type, leaf area index and soil parameters like water holding capacity, heat capacity and thermal conductivity have been compiled for ECHAM 4 (Claussen et al., 1994), consistent with the Olson et al. (1983) definition of ecosystem complexes.
The parameterization of cumulus convection (shallow, mid-level, and deep), is based on the bulk mass flux concept of Tiedtke (1989). However, according to the suggestions of Nordeng (1994), organized entrainment is related to buoyancy instead of moisture convergence, organized detrainment is computed for a spectrum of clouds detraining at different heights, and an adjustment-type closure is used for deep cumulus convection instead of the moisture convergence closure applied in the Tiedtke scheme. Moreover, the water loading is considered in the buoyancy calculation, the cloud water detrained at the top of cumulus clouds is entering as a source term in the stratiform cloud water equation.
The stratiform cloud water content is calculated from the respective budget equation including sources and sinks due to phase changes and precipitation formation by coalescence of cloud droplets and gravitational settling of ice crystals (Roeckner, 1995). The convective cloud water detrained at the top of cumulus clouds is used as a source term in the stratiform cloud water equation. Fractional cloud cover is parameterized in terms of relative humidity.
The radiation code has been adopted from the ECMWF model (Fouquart and Bonnel, 1980; Morcrette et al., 1986) with a few modifications like the consideration of additional greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide and 16 CFCs), the 14.6 µm band of ozone and various types of aerosols (optionally). Moreover, the water vapour continuum has been revised to include temperature weighted band averages of e-type absorption and also a band dependent ratio of (p-e)-type to e-type continuum absorption (Giorgetta and Wild, 1995). The single scattering properties of cloud droplets and ice crystals are derived from Mie theory with suitable adaptation to the broad-band model (Rockel et al., 1991), and the effective radius of droplets and ice crystals is parameterized in terms of the liquid and ice water content, respectively (Roeckner, 1995)."
http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/wissenschaft/modelle/echam/echam…
Wenn die Geschichte so einfach wäre, müsste man nicht viele Semester büffeln ...
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Wenn ich die Zeit dazu habe, werde ich versuchen da einzusteigen.
Aber weil ich eben nicht so viel Zeit habe und dies vermutlich vielen anderen auch so geht meine Anregung für den Laien verständlich die wichtigsten Modell- und Prognoseannahmen darzustellen.
sc
Aber weil ich eben nicht so viel Zeit habe und dies vermutlich vielen anderen auch so geht meine Anregung für den Laien verständlich die wichtigsten Modell- und Prognoseannahmen darzustellen.
sc
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.395.028 von SmartCap am 15.06.09 16:47:11Was kann denn transparenter sein, als wenn man bei mehreren IPCC-Modellen den Source-Code samt Dokumentation und allen Daten herunterladen kann? Wäre es nicht besser, sich erst mal über die hier angebotenen Links zu informieren, statt Latrinenparolen zu verbreiten?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.395.028 von SmartCap am 15.06.09 16:47:11Falls du die Güte hättest, dich mal mit meinem Link zu beschäftigen ... 
Da gibts auch jede Menge Ansprechpartner, falls dir das immer noch nicht transparent genug sein sollte.
Da gibts auch jede Menge Ansprechpartner, falls dir das immer noch nicht transparent genug sein sollte.
Das ist nur eine Anregung von meiner Seite. Die Skepsis gegenüber Klimawissenschaftlern ist auch in der undogmatisches grünen Szene sehr groß. Jegliche Form von Transparenz würde meines Erachtens Sinn machen und zu mehr Glaubwürdigkeit beitragen.
Nach wie vor will es mir nicht in den Sinn, warum man dazu in einem Multi Billionen Dollar-Markt nicht in der Lage sein sollte.
SC
Nach wie vor will es mir nicht in den Sinn, warum man dazu in einem Multi Billionen Dollar-Markt nicht in der Lage sein sollte.
SC
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