Canargo- kurz vorm Ziel - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Jompahban]

Canargo wird in Kürze seinen bedeutenden Fund testen. Die Aktie ist schon angesprungen, aber es bleibt noch sehr viel Luft nach oben.

Hier eine neue Analyse.

Manavi potential not reflected in the share price
Yesterday CanArgo announced that it has successfully run casing at a depth of more than 4 km on the Manavi M12 well. This is an important milestone in the development of M12 well, and technical risk is now significantly reduced.
After many delays and technical problems experienced previously, CanArgo?s announcement that everything goes well on the important M12 well made a strong impression to the market: CanArgo share price soared by 30% during the course of yesterday?s trading. The news flow from M12 well will continue, and expecting that most likely it will be positive, we believe the share is ready to reach new heights.
M12 well is expected to reach the total depth of 4.600 metres by the end of August or early September, after which it should be announced whether hydrocarbons were encountered. We believe the chances of encountering hydrocarbons are high based on the meeting with CanArgo?s chief geologist, also having in mind that oil has been already discovered on the Manavi field. M11 discovery well, drilled on Manavi several years ago, has flowed a high quality oil at a significant rate, after which technical problems associated with the slim hole occurred and proper testing of the reservoir was delayed to date.
Test results for the reserves on Manavi should be announced most probably in late September. CanArgo indicates that Manavi can be a significant oil discovery, containing up to 800 mill barrels of oil reserves. Despite a rise lately, CanArgo share price still does not reflect the potential of Manavi discovery. In case of finding oil reserves of several-million-barrels class, the share price may increase by many times.
Any target price for CanArgo can only be speculative at this stage. Assuming 75% probability of 150 mill barrels reserves in Manavi and giving $5 value per barrel, then adding the net debt and assuming 24% increase in the share number after the exercise of warrants, we set the target price at NOK 11,00 per share (under USD/NOK 6,20). The target price is however subject to big uncertainties at this stage, hence we would not put too much emphasis on it until the picture is cleared up. Seeing attractive risk/reward ratio, we perceive CanArgo share as an undervalued option. We would however like to stress that the risk contained in this stock is huge. Absence of earnings and a weak balance sheet makes CanArgo very dependant on successful outcome of the Manavi project. If oil is not found on M12 or new technical problems occur, the company?s share price will drop substantially.
Conclusion
Seeing attractive risk/reward ratio and positive news flow ahead from the Manavi appraisal, we keep our speculative Buy recommendation for CanArgo. Keep in mind however that the risk is sky-high.

[brokerburt]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 23.498.058 von Jompahban am 18.08.06 16:11:50

Hallo Jompahban,

ich hoffe für dich,daß du schon seit einigen Tagen/Wochen in diesem
Papier investiert bist.
Ich bin jetzt schon mit knapp 50% im Gewinn, in Oslo ist cnr
mit dem Tageshöchstkurs von 8,10 NOK ins Wochenende gegangen.

Canargo ( cnr ) ist seit einigen Tagen im norwegischen Chat
en vogue.
Wenn es gelingen sollte, den Monsterbrunnen bei der geolo-
gisch schwierigen Gesteinsformation anzuzapfen, sind Riesengewinne
von mehreren 1000% drin. Ich bin kein pusher,aber wer rechnen kann, daß bei einem geschätzten Vorkommen von mehreren
100 Mill. barrel Öl und der geringen MK, diese Kurse nicht utopisch
sind.

Die Kursfahrt hat noch garnicht richtig angefangen, bei einem
Raketenstart ist es viel zu spät.

Wie gesagt, in Norwegen werde Kurse von ca. 45 $ durchgespielt.

Gruß brokerburt