THAILAND - MOODY`s stuft Laenderrating-Outlook herauf !! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Informator]

Meldung gerade eben auf dem Ticker.

Outlook nun "on review for possible upgrade"

Gruende :

"the review is prompted by Thailand`s improved external performance, strong external liquidity position and broadening economic recovery...",

und:

"enhanced stability of the financial sector"


Reaktion am Markt: Keine, wie immer, zumindest in den ersten Minuten. Aber irgendwann kommt es.

Vermutlich dann, wenn aus dem Outlook ein volles Upgrade wird, denn erst dann duerfen viele der US-Funds nach Thailand. Aber nun ist es eine Frage von Wochen.

[Informator]

1.) ab Ende April gebe ich meinen eigenen Online-Infodienst heraus, mit Quotes von 9 asiat Boersen, Forum etc., gemischt in Deutsch und Engl.

Ich hoffe auf Eure Unterstuetzung und rege Teilnahme !!!, evtl Kooperationsideen.


2.) zur Kapitalerhoehung BBL zu 10 Baht

- habe diese Info noch nicht aus 1. Hand.

- die Verwaesserung wird durch die Bezugsrechte ausgeglichen, ein Schaden entsteht den Altaktionaeren nicht, wie schon bei der TFB-Kapitalerh. in 8/99.

- Psychologisch koennte der Preis negativ gesehen werden.

- Es kommen nur 20 mrd baht rein, das duerfte nun aber ausreichen, da man TPI unter Kontrolle bringt.


3.) Artikel, die man lesen sollte:

03Apr2000 Thai outlook brighter as Moody`s considers upgrade.
By Bruce Cheesman BANGKOK.
The further recapitalisation of the Thai banking sector has been boosted by a possible ratings upgrade by Moody`s Investors Service for four major Thai commercial banks.
The US-based ratings agency last week raised its outlook from "stable" to "positive" for local financial institutions and announced a possible upgrade of four large banks Bangkok Bank, Thai Farmers` Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya.
"Although Thailand`s banking system remains far from adequately capitalised, the outlook has significantly improved," said the ratings agency.
Ms Deborah Schuler, vice-president of Moody`s in Hong Kong, said the agency could upgrade the banks by mid-year because of an improving outlook for the sector.
A ratings upgrade for the large banks is expected to improve market sentiment and make it easier for several banks, including Bangkok Bank, Bank of Ayudhya and the Thai Military Bank, to recapitalise.
Moody`s, regarded as the toughest of the ratings agencies has been rumoured to be about to upgrade Thailand`s sovereign credit rating several times, only to disappoint the market.
The move reflects Moody`s sentiment that the stronger Thai banks will be able to continue to access local and foreign markets for funds.
The review is expected to provide more opportunities for banks to raise cheaper funding from overseas.
Moody`s also took into consideration recent government willingness to provide extra resources to local banks.
Local bankers hailed the possible ratings upgrade as a signal that the worst was over for Thai banking.

"It`s very, very good news for us," said Jamlong Atikul, senior executive vice-president of Bank of Ayudyha. "This should be marked as a turning point for Thailand`s ailing banking system. It would help a lot if banks want to recapitalise now," he said.
Standard & Poor`s, another ratings agency, has a team in Bangkok this week considering an upgrade for local banks. Earlier, yet another agency, Fitch IBCA, issued a positive report on local banks.
Fitch said the larger banks would continue to do better this year, although the only bank likely to make a profit was Thai Farmers.
Bank of Asia and DBS Thai Danu were expected to require extra capital to meet provisioning needs and future expansion.
Despite the pat on the back from Moody`s, Thai banks have many obstacles to overcome. Non-performing loans are not falling as fast as expected, with many new loans becoming delinquent.
There is a significant gap between the market leaders Bangkok Bank, Siam Commercial Bank, and Thai Farmers` and the also-rans.
Now that foreign banks have a major foothold in Thailand, Thai banks face declining incomes and much stiffer competition.
Many of the Thai banks, which are vastly over-staffed, are battling with unions to cut jobs and close branches.
Meanwhile, Moody`s has warned that East Asia could face another banking crisis as the pace of financial reform has slowed.
"One cannot be assured that future financial difficulties at the country level will be avoided," said Mr Steve Hess, vice-president and senior analyst.
He called on East Asia to greatly better its financial intermediation to prevent a second economic crisis. "Without such improvement, it is possible to predict that further crises will occur," Mr Hess said.
Copyright John Fairfax Holdings Limited 2000. Not available for re-dissemination.
Source: AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW 03/04/2000 P37


“Private Investment Index” in Thailand: Feb 2000 hoechster Wert seit Mai 1996 !! Damit hat eine weitere, fuer den Fiinanzsektor lfr. sehr wichtige Kennziffer die Krisenregion verlassen und marschiert klar in Richtung Boom ! Der Index steht fuer alle Investitionen von Unternehmen (zB Ausreustungsinv., Bau) und Privatleuten (in erster Linie Bau). Da der Bausektor immer noch unten ist, kann man sich vorstellen, dass die Investitionen viele andere Bereiche richtig boomen (Export, Tourismus). Letzteres ist der Fall, da die Umsaetze dieser Schluesselbranchen um 20-35% wachsen, d.h. man kann und will nun auch INVESTIEREN.


03Apr2000 - Investors unmoved by Thai recovery.

Anmerk.: Das trifft den Kern. Nur, fast taegl. positive News seit Wochen werden die Invetoren irgendwann "moven" muessen, und dann richtig, da dann der Rueckstau an guten news in die Kurse eingearbeitet wird.

By Bruce Cheesman BANGKOK.
Foreign investors continue to ignore economic statistics being churned out by the central bank to underline Thailand`s recovery.
The Bank of Thailand has announced a strong pick-up in private investment in plant and machinery and steady growth in domestic demand.
The private investment index grew by 9.7 per cent in February from the previous year, compared with 2.8 per cent growth in January. The increase reflected a surge in imports of raw materials and capital goods.
The manufacturing production index posted 9.2 per cent growth in February, up from 7.5 per cent the month before. Industrial capacity utilisation was 58.3 per cent for February, up from 56.1 per cent in January.
Growth was posted in all sectors, except beverages and construction. Thailand`s "Detroit of the East", made up of most of the world`s top car manufacturers, is gearing up for a huge increase in local sales and exports this year.
Exports in February totalled US$5.3 billion ($8.7 billion), a gain of 31.6 per cent from the previous year. Export growth for the year is expected at about 20 per cent. In the first two months of the year, 163 applications for investment were received by the Board of Investment, a rise of 57 per cent over the same period last year. Thai fundamentals continue to look good on paper: foreign-exchange holdings are about US$30 billion, the baht is recovering, and GDP growth is expected at about 4.5 to 5 per cent this year.
Ratings agency Moody`s Investors Service has taken into account an improvement in the banking sector by considering an upgrade for four local banks.
Despite the significant improvement in fundamentals, the Stock Exchange of Thailand has dropped by 20 per cent since the beginning of the year, reflecting foreign investment sentiment that the pace of economic reform has dropped behind most of Thailand`s Asian rivals.
Copyright John Fairfax Holdings Limited 2000. Not available for re-dissemination.
Source: AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW 03/04/2000 P12