LYNAS - auf dem Weg zu einem Rohstoffproduzent von Hightech-Rohstoffen (Seite 5297)

[schlumpftrader]

hmm, wie soll man das jetzt sehen:
mit einem lachenden und weinenden auge?

im ausi-forum sind auch einige personen dabei, die, wie CLOSE_THE_GAP, sehr glücklich über die ablehnung der FIRB sind.

so wie OPTIMIST_ gestern geschrieben hat: es brauch schon gute nerven mit Lynas. schon mulmige situation im augenblick.

hoffen wir mal, dass am ende alles gut wird.

[anski100]

so... da die news nun raus ist könnte doch rein theoretisch der handel wieder los gehen
also zumindest wenn es nach dem schreiben von gestern geht

Unless ASX decides othervvise, the securities will remain in pre-open until the earlier of the commencement of normal trading on Friday. 25 September 2009 or when the announcement is released to the market.

[privateer]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.045.910 von 4now am 24.09.09 09:46:59

Fazit. Keine Finanzierung derzeit + massive Projektverzögerung


Der Newsrelease ist zu entnehmen, dass Lynas zur zeit an einer Zwischenfinanzierung arbeitet. In welcher Höhe ist aber unklar.

Ob es tatsächlich zu einer massiven Projektverzögerung kommt, werden wir dann wissen, wenn klar ist, wieviel Geld Lynas einsammeln kann.

Um es mal optimistisch zu sehen: CNMC hätte über 51 % an Lynas zu rund 0,30 AUD pro Aktie erhalten. Nun steht Lynas bei 0,90 AUD. Eine Finanzierungrunde auf dem aktuellen Niveau kann unter Umständen zu einer wesentlich geringeren Verwässerung führen - sollte sie Erfolg haben...

[4now]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.045.850 von schlumpftrader am 24.09.09 09:39:08

der deal ist von den chinesen komplett gecancelt worden
weil die FIRB die Reduktion unter 50% sowohl bei der Beteiligung als auch beim Management Board gefordert hat.
Lynas meint genug Working Capital zu haben um weiterarbeiten zu können.

Fazit. Keine Finanzierung derzeit + massive Projektverzögerung

[Fuenfvorzwoelf]

Warum steht da: For personal use?

Ist das ein Geheimdoc?

Komisch.

Naja. Anscheinend haben sich die Chinesen zurückgezogen, wenn ich das richtig übersetzt habe.

Das heißt, der Weg ist frei für neue Investoren.

Ich werde mir erst mal eine Teilposi zurückkaufen, da diese Unsicherheit draußen ist.

[schlumpftrader]

es gibt NEW:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090924/pdf/31kxjlh82hdnh3.pdf

gut oder schlecht?
wie bewertet ihr die?

[JoJo49]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.045.441 von schlumpftrader am 24.09.09 08:45:37

Der folgende Artikel beschreibt ganz gut die Lage bezogen auf die Rohstoffproblematik der Rohstoffe der seltenen Erden/Metalle.

http://research.tdameritrade.com/public/markets/news/story.a…
Thursday, September 24, 2009 3:04:16 AM EDTShow Me

News

Rare earths are vital, and China owns them all
12:01a ET September 24, 2009 (MarketWatch)
TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- Rare earths may not be on most people's radars but they are certainly in almost any high-tech item they use -- and in the world of rare earths, China is king.

The U.S. Geological Survey recognizes 17 different rare earths, materials with science-fictionesque names like lanthanum and gadolinium. They are used in everything: glass polishing and ceramics, automotive catalytic converters, computer monitors, lighting, televisions and pharmaceuticals.

"We are addicted to rare earths as much as we are addicted to oil," said Byron King, editor of Energy & Scarcity Investors, published by Agora Financial LLC. Yet "none of these elements are famous like gold or silver. None gets shipped in giant ore freighters like iron, aluminum or copper."

"Without these elements, much of the modern economy will just plain shut down," he said.

And yet, King said, "the only people who really study these elements are master's- and PhD-level chemists and solid-state physicists ... and national leaders in places like China."

In fact, China has all but cornered the market. The rare-earths space is like a Monopoly game, in which Beijing owns Boardwalk, Park Place, and well, pretty much all the properties, while the West owns St. James Place.

"China is the Saudi Arabia of rare elements," said Mark Williams, a risk management expert and finance professor at Boston University. And "like oil, rare elements will flow to the highest bidder."

China accounts for about 97% of global rare-earth production -- 139,000 metric tons of material in 2008 -- and it also consumes about 60% of the world's rare earths, according to Sean Brodrick, a natural-resources analyst at UncommonWisdomDaily.com.

Meanwhile, the U.S., which is also a major buyer of rare earths, mined no rare-earth elements last year, USGS said.

"China is consuming more of its own rare earths all the time, so it's exporting less," Brodrick said.

That fact could pose a significant problem for the world market, given that rare earths are used in so many products and gadgets.

Without these elements, "you can say goodbye to much of modernity," said King. "There will be no more television screens, computer hard drives, fiber-optic cables, digital cameras and most medical imaging devices. You can say farewell to space launches and the satellites ... and the world's system for refining petroleum will break down too."

Technology play

Indeed, rare earths are also critical in the cutting-edge technologies promised to create a new green economy and save the planet from a climate-change apocalypse.

"Really, if there are limited rare-earth supplies in world markets, then there will be a very limited 'green' future," King said. "There will be a limited future, period."

The electric motor in Toyota's market-leading Prius hybrid, for example, requires 10 to 15 kilograms of lanthanum for the battery, according to William Gamble, president of Emerging Market Strategies in Rhode Island.

The Prius' battery also uses 1 kilogram of neodymium, the key component in the alloy for permanent magnets, he said.

In fact, neodymium is the only element that can create strong permanent magnets, although engineers have tried to find a substitute, King said.

And it's a little-known fact, he added, that strong magnets "are critical to the guidance systems of every missile in the U.S. defense inventory."

Meanwhile, lanthanum, the most commonly used rare earth, has been a key substance for petroleum refining over many decades, so even "non-green" cars depend on the rare earths.

"China's dominance of rare-earth output gives that nation an overwhelming advantage in developing many forms of technology, both now and in the future," King said.

Holding back

With such a stranglehold on the market, China is doing whatever it can to keep other nations from encroaching.

"Recent statements suggest [China is] going to limit outside exports, as well as shut down the polluting in-country mines," said Brent Cook, author of investment letter Exploration Insights. "They are centralizing supply."

"Just as Rio Tinto and [Turkey's] Eti Mine can effectively stymie any competitor production by controlling the borate market, China can and, I believe, will do the same to emerging producers," said Cook, who is also a geologist.

Brodrick said China has a "1-2-3 plan" to "dominate the world's rare-earths market for decades to come, and with it, the energy technology for the 21st century."

The first step involves limiting exports. This year's export quota is poised to be the smallest yet, and plans for further restrictions are in the works, he said.

Secondly, Beijing also appears to be forcing manufacturers that use rare earths to move to China.

"Companies that want rare earths from China can get them. They just have to move their production facilities to China" because of those reported export restrictions, Brodrick said.

And third, he said, China has made moves to buy up other rare-earth resources around the world.

He points to the case of two Australian companies, Lynas Corp. and Arafura Resources, which plan to open mines in the next couple of years that would have a combined production equal to a quarter of the annual global output of rare-earth metals.

When the credit markets collapsed last year, both companies lost their financing. Sensing opportunity, China stepped in, with government-owned miners providing the money needed to finish construction of the two companies' mines and ore-processing factories, he said.

In exchange, the Chinese companies received 51.7% of Lynas and 25% of Arafura. Read about rare-earth investment prospects in Commodities Corner.

Beijing's strategy is a long-term one: King said that while China's rare-earth output may hold up for a few more years, it'll almost certainly fall after that.

"The Chinese know this," he said, and so when the global markets see news about China limiting exports of rare earths, "it's both to preserve the ores and assets and to create a draw to pull new industry into China."

Market's loss is China's gain

And China's grasp on the market will be hard to break.

China gained its monopoly on rare earths because it was able to "undercut everyone else's price over the past decade," according to Emerging Market Strategies' Gamble.

The Chinese rare-earth sector also gained a leg up by swallowing some serious environmental consequences.

"Many rare-earth elements are very toxic," said Marcus Hudson, president of commodity-hedging advisory firm Hudson & Associates. "With China's lax rules on environmental safety, there is an environmental nightmare waiting to happen."

Yet despite such price and regulatory advantages, smaller exploration companies in other nations are starting to make progress on new rare-earth projects that could chip away at Chinese dominance.

"What has to happen to take control out of Chinese hands is obviously new mines outside of China," said Cook. "There are a number of junior exploration companies right now working on that."

As examples, Cook cites Canadian firms Rare Element Resources Ltd. , Avalon Rare Metals Inc. and Quest Uranium Corp. .

"So there really is no shortage in rare elements, and in fact, there are enough deposits out there to easily fill demand, but at a price," he said.

At least until now, rare-earth production was not very economical, but if prices stay high, we will see many new mines outside of China, he said.

But, he added, the "problem is that China controls the price and could put any new producer out of business by dropping prices."

Grüsse JoJo

[schlumpftrader]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.045.408 von JoJo49 am 24.09.09 08:40:20

verstehe.

vielen dank JoJo für die erklärung. klingt eigentlich sehr positiv für unsere Lynas.
dann wollen wir mal hoffen, dass die new, die von Lynas kommen wird, ihres dazu beiträgt.

bis demnächst
bye

schlumpftrader

[4now]

Also ich geh davon aus daß den chinesen die 51% Kontrolle verweigert wird und nur 25-35% ähnlich dem ARU Deal genehmigt werden. Weil so ein Ausverkauf der Ressourcen politisch nicht durchzubringen ist. Insbesondere bei der strategischen Bedeutung der RE und dem Medienhype dazu in den letzten Wochen. Lynas braucht also einen zusätzlichen Investor,...das wird wohl Zeit brauchen. Also weitere Projektverzögerung.
Dazu passt auch dieser Chinesische Assistance Antrag. Vermutlich hat man schon läuten hören daß der Antrag in der eingebrachten Version nicht genehmigungsfähig ist.
Trotzdem gutes Investment.

[JoJo49]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.045.222 von schlumpftrader am 24.09.09 08:00:05

Ganz einfach - China hat den Export von den Rohstoffen der seltenen Erden/Metalle wegen Eigenbedarf fasst eingestellt und muss laut eigenen Aussagen bald importieren.

Daher die vielen neu Erschließungen von Minen bzw. Wiedererschließung von Minen wie die Mountain Molycorp's Pass Mine in den USA damit der zukünftig weltweite stark steigende Bedarf gedeckt werden kann.
siehe: http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=ne…
September 23, 2009 10:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time

Molycorp Minerals Announces the Formation of Rare Earth Trade Association

GREENWOOD VILLAGE, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Molycorp Minerals, LLC announced today the formation of the Rare Earth Industry and Technology Association (“REITA”). REITA will function as an independent trade association dedicated to the establishment of a sustainable domestic Rare Earth industry and technology base to meet the growing need for Rare Earth materials and products for green energy, defense, high-tech and homeland security applications.
...
...
Diese Mine wurde in der Vergangenheit aus wirtschaftlichen Gründen geschlossen da sich ein Abbau nicht mehr lohnte. Das hat sich, wie beschrieben, grundlegend geändert, allerdings werden auf Grund der hohen Förderkosten im Zusammenhang mit der immer weiter steigenden Nachfrage die Preise stark ansteigen. Da bei der Förderung und Produktion von REO große Umweltbelastungen auftreten sind weltweit, wie auch in China, strenge Richtlinien aufstellt worden die in China schon zu Minenschließungen geführt haben weil die Einhaltung zu einem großem Kostenfaktor geworden sind.

Um auf dem Weltmarkt ihre Industrie konkurrenzfähig zu halten will daher China die steigenden Kosten zukünftig bei notwendigen Importen durch Subventionen abfangen.

Lynas hat mit der Mine auf dem Mt. Welt-Abbaugebiet sehr günstige Abbaubedingungen wie u.a. Reserven von 2,1 Millionen Tonnen mit einem REO-Anteil von 15.5% REO-Anteil ausgegangen was 321.000 Tonnen REO entsprechen würden. Insgesamt wären das in etwa 35% der aller verfügbaren Reserven unter die Einbeziehung auch der niedrigeren Av. Mt Weld Compositionen.
Das sind im Vergleich zu anderen Abbaugebieten sehr Kostensparende Bedingungen die bei zukünftig zu erwartenden starken Preisanstiegen zu hohen Gewinnmargen führen wird.

Grüsse JoJo