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Beitrag zu dieser Diskussion schreiben
FeedbackAuch hier: Es fehlt nicht wirklich viel und wir hätten diesen Abwärtstrendkanal verlassen.
By Mark Pittman and Kabir Chibber
Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks may not have the tools to restore stability to credit markets amid the ``Panic of '07,'' and instead should demand greater transparency from financial companies, Moody's Investors Service said today.
Derivatives and the growth of hedge funds using unprecedented amounts of debt have magnified the impact of a rise in borrowing costs, New York-based Moody's said in a report.
``The new financial paradigm has brought with it some problems, which the world's financial policy technicians have not yet solved,'' Moody's said in a report by Vice Chairman Christopher Mahoney and Senior Vice President Pierre Cailleteau. ``Each credit crisis teaches new lessons, often resulting in corrective reforms. The current `Panic of '07' will as well.''
Central banks failed in their initial efforts last month to stem a credit crunch that was sparked by rising defaults on subprime mortgages. The banks used their traditional instruments for propping up markets such as adding cash to the financial system through overnight lending and cutting interest rates.
The cost of overnight borrowing in pounds rose yesterday by the most since June as the bailout of U.K. lender Northern Rock Plc stoked concern that more home-loan providers will be forced to seek emergency funding. The Bank of England yesterday made 4.4 billion pounds ($8.8 billion) of emergency loans to U.K. banks and the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 4.75 percent to prevent the economy from sinking into recession.
Halts, Closings
At least 110 mortgage companies have halted operations or sold themselves since the start of 2006, including American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., the Melville, New York-based lender. Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage company, was forced to tap bank credit lines after being shut out of the short-term debt market and banks provided $21.4 billion to shore up GMAC LLC, the lender owned by General Motors Corp. and Cerberus Management LP. Hedge funds, including two run by Bear Stearns Cos., collapsed and Newcastle, England-based Northern Rock sought its bailout last week.
Foreclosures set a record in the second quarter and overdue payments on U.S. subprime mortgages rose to the highest level in five years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
`No Idea'
Moody's itself, as well as Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings, were criticized by investors, lawmakers and regulators for being too slow to respond to the rising defaults. The ratings companies are being probed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and policy makers including European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet have pointed to possible conflicts of interest between the ratings companies and the banks that pay their fees.
Moody's, S&P and Fitch waited until April to downgrade some subprime securities, after their value had fallen by as much as 80 cents on the dollar. Analysts have been updating ratings ``as fast as we can,'' Mahoney said.
Investors have an ``over-reliance on ratings for pricing,'' he said. Some ``have no idea what they have and they have no idea how to price it.''
The global financial system, Moody's said, has evolved from a ``sleepy'' world dominated by banks and fixed exchange to one in which capital flows across borders and is allocated by the market, not financial institutions.
Confidence Undermined
``It has become clear that not knowing where the risk is can undermine confidence in the stability of counterparty credit,'' Tim Frost, a portfolio manager at London-based hedge fund Cairn Capital, said in an interview yesterday. ``The palpable loss of confidence in the market recently will reinforce to management and regulators that firms need to `fess up' when they have losses.''
A $1.6 billion debt fund run by Cairn was last month bailed out by Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s third-biggest bank, after it was unable to raise money in the credit markets.
Traditionally, the Fed's control over banks has enabled it to ease any credit crunch by adding money to the financial system, Moody's said. The Fed has almost no control over the hedge funds that are among the biggest investors now, Moody's said.
Mortgage Bonds
``The intensity of the impact of a financial shock on the economy will depend on the central banks' ability to restore `fluidity' throughout the system,'' Mahoney and Cailleteau said in the second of a series of reports addressing the crisis. ``We expect market and official pressure to require greater transparency from financial actors.''
In the previous report on Sept. 5, Mahoney and Cailleteau said the adjustment in prices of mortgage bonds tied to borrowers with poor credit will last at least six more months.
``We expect some pressure on capital ratios'' for banks, Mahoney said during a conference call today. ``We don't expect any major banks to breach capital ratios, but it will be bearish for credit creation during the period banks digest this unwanted meal.''
The next report from Moody's will study the role of credit rating companies in the market, Mahoney said in an interview.
The ``deficiencies exposed'' by the present turmoil are mostly the same as when Greenwich, Connecticut-based hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP collapsed after Russia defaulted in 1998, Mahoney and Cailleteau wrote.
Rebundled Risks
``The greater the loss of confidence, the harder it is to restore and crucially the greater the erosion of confidence, the greater the contagion and the broader the financial safety net may have to be spread,'' the analysts said. ``This is the ultimate conundrum of the philosophy of market discipline.''
Moody's last month said a hedge fund collapse on the same scale as LTCM was possible. Investment banks are facing larger losses than when LTCM had to be bailed out after wrong-way bets on global bond prices, Standard & Poor's said last month.
``Risks have been unbundled and rebundled into tradable instruments,'' the Moody's report said. ``The new financial world created by securitization had not been subjected to a stress test of this magnitude until now.''
Derivatives are financial instruments derived from bonds, loans, stocks, currencies and commodities, or linked to specific events like changes in the weather or interest rates.
``What turned an overdue risk reappraisal into a financial panic is the combination of untested financial innovation, price- sensitive accounting rules, leverage and opacity,'' Mahoney and Cailleteau said. ``This cocktail has proved explosive.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Pittman in New York at mpittman@bloomberg.net ; Kabir Chibber in London at kchibber@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 19, 2007 10:20 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a.Iup2b4…
Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks may not have the tools to restore stability to credit markets amid the ``Panic of '07,'' and instead should demand greater transparency from financial companies, Moody's Investors Service said today.
Derivatives and the growth of hedge funds using unprecedented amounts of debt have magnified the impact of a rise in borrowing costs, New York-based Moody's said in a report.
``The new financial paradigm has brought with it some problems, which the world's financial policy technicians have not yet solved,'' Moody's said in a report by Vice Chairman Christopher Mahoney and Senior Vice President Pierre Cailleteau. ``Each credit crisis teaches new lessons, often resulting in corrective reforms. The current `Panic of '07' will as well.''
Central banks failed in their initial efforts last month to stem a credit crunch that was sparked by rising defaults on subprime mortgages. The banks used their traditional instruments for propping up markets such as adding cash to the financial system through overnight lending and cutting interest rates.
The cost of overnight borrowing in pounds rose yesterday by the most since June as the bailout of U.K. lender Northern Rock Plc stoked concern that more home-loan providers will be forced to seek emergency funding. The Bank of England yesterday made 4.4 billion pounds ($8.8 billion) of emergency loans to U.K. banks and the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 4.75 percent to prevent the economy from sinking into recession.
Halts, Closings
At least 110 mortgage companies have halted operations or sold themselves since the start of 2006, including American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., the Melville, New York-based lender. Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage company, was forced to tap bank credit lines after being shut out of the short-term debt market and banks provided $21.4 billion to shore up GMAC LLC, the lender owned by General Motors Corp. and Cerberus Management LP. Hedge funds, including two run by Bear Stearns Cos., collapsed and Newcastle, England-based Northern Rock sought its bailout last week.
Foreclosures set a record in the second quarter and overdue payments on U.S. subprime mortgages rose to the highest level in five years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
`No Idea'
Moody's itself, as well as Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings, were criticized by investors, lawmakers and regulators for being too slow to respond to the rising defaults. The ratings companies are being probed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and policy makers including European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet have pointed to possible conflicts of interest between the ratings companies and the banks that pay their fees.
Moody's, S&P and Fitch waited until April to downgrade some subprime securities, after their value had fallen by as much as 80 cents on the dollar. Analysts have been updating ratings ``as fast as we can,'' Mahoney said.
Investors have an ``over-reliance on ratings for pricing,'' he said. Some ``have no idea what they have and they have no idea how to price it.''
The global financial system, Moody's said, has evolved from a ``sleepy'' world dominated by banks and fixed exchange to one in which capital flows across borders and is allocated by the market, not financial institutions.
Confidence Undermined
``It has become clear that not knowing where the risk is can undermine confidence in the stability of counterparty credit,'' Tim Frost, a portfolio manager at London-based hedge fund Cairn Capital, said in an interview yesterday. ``The palpable loss of confidence in the market recently will reinforce to management and regulators that firms need to `fess up' when they have losses.''
A $1.6 billion debt fund run by Cairn was last month bailed out by Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s third-biggest bank, after it was unable to raise money in the credit markets.
Traditionally, the Fed's control over banks has enabled it to ease any credit crunch by adding money to the financial system, Moody's said. The Fed has almost no control over the hedge funds that are among the biggest investors now, Moody's said.
Mortgage Bonds
``The intensity of the impact of a financial shock on the economy will depend on the central banks' ability to restore `fluidity' throughout the system,'' Mahoney and Cailleteau said in the second of a series of reports addressing the crisis. ``We expect market and official pressure to require greater transparency from financial actors.''
In the previous report on Sept. 5, Mahoney and Cailleteau said the adjustment in prices of mortgage bonds tied to borrowers with poor credit will last at least six more months.
``We expect some pressure on capital ratios'' for banks, Mahoney said during a conference call today. ``We don't expect any major banks to breach capital ratios, but it will be bearish for credit creation during the period banks digest this unwanted meal.''
The next report from Moody's will study the role of credit rating companies in the market, Mahoney said in an interview.
The ``deficiencies exposed'' by the present turmoil are mostly the same as when Greenwich, Connecticut-based hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP collapsed after Russia defaulted in 1998, Mahoney and Cailleteau wrote.
Rebundled Risks
``The greater the loss of confidence, the harder it is to restore and crucially the greater the erosion of confidence, the greater the contagion and the broader the financial safety net may have to be spread,'' the analysts said. ``This is the ultimate conundrum of the philosophy of market discipline.''
Moody's last month said a hedge fund collapse on the same scale as LTCM was possible. Investment banks are facing larger losses than when LTCM had to be bailed out after wrong-way bets on global bond prices, Standard & Poor's said last month.
``Risks have been unbundled and rebundled into tradable instruments,'' the Moody's report said. ``The new financial world created by securitization had not been subjected to a stress test of this magnitude until now.''
Derivatives are financial instruments derived from bonds, loans, stocks, currencies and commodities, or linked to specific events like changes in the weather or interest rates.
``What turned an overdue risk reappraisal into a financial panic is the combination of untested financial innovation, price- sensitive accounting rules, leverage and opacity,'' Mahoney and Cailleteau said. ``This cocktail has proved explosive.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Pittman in New York at mpittman@bloomberg.net ; Kabir Chibber in London at kchibber@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 19, 2007 10:20 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a.Iup2b4…
Gold auf 27-Jahreshoch, Vervielfachung von verwalteten Vermögen
Datum 20.09.2007 - Uhrzeit 12:09 (© BörseGo AG 2007, Autor: Huber Christoph, Redakteur, © GodmodeTrader - http://www.godmode-trader.de/)
New York (BoerseGo.de) - Der Goldpreis zeigt sich weiterhin von seiner besten Seite. Am Donnerstag stellten sich im Handel in New York und London neue 27-Jahreshöchstände ein. In Anbetracht erneuter Rekordtiefstände des Dollars gegenüber dem Euro gewinne Gold als alternatives Investment weiter an Bedeutung.
In London legt der Goldpreis zur Zeit um 1,1 Prozent auf über 729 Dollar je Unze zu, nachdem im Verlauf ein bisheriges Hoch von 730,51 Dollar je Unze erreicht worden ist. Dies stellt den höchsten Stand seit Januar 1980 dar. Beim Handel an der New Yorker Warenterminbörse Nymex erhöht sich der Dezember Futurekontrakt um 1 Prozent auf über 736 Dollar je Unze. Hier lag das vorangegangene Mehrjahreshoch des heutigen Tages bei 738,30 Dollar je Unze.
Im bisherigen Jahresverlauf kletterten die Gold-Futures um 15 Prozent. Das bisherige Allzeithoch vom Januar 1980 liegt bei 850 Dollar je Unze.
Die vom britischen Finanzdienstleister ETF Securities Ltd. verwalteten Goldvermögenswerte haben sich eigenen Berichten zufolge im Zuge der Rally des Goldpreises und eines daraus resultierenden Rekordwachstums in den vergangenen sieben Wochen mehr als verdreifacht.
Datum 20.09.2007 - Uhrzeit 12:09 (© BörseGo AG 2007, Autor: Huber Christoph, Redakteur, © GodmodeTrader - http://www.godmode-trader.de/)
New York (BoerseGo.de) - Der Goldpreis zeigt sich weiterhin von seiner besten Seite. Am Donnerstag stellten sich im Handel in New York und London neue 27-Jahreshöchstände ein. In Anbetracht erneuter Rekordtiefstände des Dollars gegenüber dem Euro gewinne Gold als alternatives Investment weiter an Bedeutung.
In London legt der Goldpreis zur Zeit um 1,1 Prozent auf über 729 Dollar je Unze zu, nachdem im Verlauf ein bisheriges Hoch von 730,51 Dollar je Unze erreicht worden ist. Dies stellt den höchsten Stand seit Januar 1980 dar. Beim Handel an der New Yorker Warenterminbörse Nymex erhöht sich der Dezember Futurekontrakt um 1 Prozent auf über 736 Dollar je Unze. Hier lag das vorangegangene Mehrjahreshoch des heutigen Tages bei 738,30 Dollar je Unze.
Im bisherigen Jahresverlauf kletterten die Gold-Futures um 15 Prozent. Das bisherige Allzeithoch vom Januar 1980 liegt bei 850 Dollar je Unze.
Die vom britischen Finanzdienstleister ETF Securities Ltd. verwalteten Goldvermögenswerte haben sich eigenen Berichten zufolge im Zuge der Rally des Goldpreises und eines daraus resultierenden Rekordwachstums in den vergangenen sieben Wochen mehr als verdreifacht.
Short History
Symbol Report Date Volume Change
SAM - T 2007-09-15 2,873 +2,873
Symbol Report Date Volume Change
SAM - T 2007-09-15 2,873 +2,873
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 31.652.448 von e_type1 am 18.09.07 23:14:31Gold über 720 $/oz, Nachfrage auf Rekordhoch, Gold und Goldaktien haussieren
von Martin Siegel
Der Goldpreis steigt nach der gestrigen US-Leitzinssenkung im nachbörslichen New Yorker Handel bis auf 726 $/oz an. Heute morgen notiert der Goldpreis im frühen Londoner Handel mit 724 $/oz um etwa 7 $/oz über dem Vortagesniveau und setzt den steilen Aufwärtstrend der letzten Tage damit fort. Die Goldminenaktien reagieren sehr positiv auf den Goldpreisanstieg und haussieren parallel zu den übrigen Industrieaktien. Auf Eurobasis wird der Goldpreisanstieg durch den schwachen Dollar gedämpft (aktueller Preis 16.644 Euro/kg, Vortag 16.632 Euro/kg). Nach dem Ende der aktuellen mittelfristigen Seitwärtsentwicklung erwarten wir für die nächsten Monate eine sich beschleunigende Fortsetzung der Goldhausse in Richtung unseres Zwischen-Preisziels von 750 $/oz und des alten historischen Höchstkurses von 871 $/oz. Aufgrund der fundamentalen Verfassung des Goldmarktes halten wir eine Umkehr des langfristigen Aufwärtstrends praktisch für ausgeschlossen. Eine sich zuspitzende Finanzkrise an den Papiergeldmärkten (incl. der dann wertlos verfallenden Zertifikate auf Gold) könnte dabei jederzeit zu einem explosionsartigen Goldpreisanstieg führen.
Langfristig wird der Goldpreis durch eine breit angelegte Aufwärtsentwicklung des Ölpreises, der Basismetallpreise und des Silberpreises unterstützt, der sich in den letzten Wochen relativ zum Goldpreis schwächer entwickelt hat und dadurch Nachholpotential aufgebaut hat (aktueller Preis 13,07 $/oz, Vortag 12,81 $/oz). Platin bleibt stabil auf einem hohen Niveau (aktueller Preis 1.311 $/oz, Vortag 1.305 $/oz), Palladium bleibt zurück (aktueller Preis 335 $/oz, Vortag 334 $/oz). Die Basismetalle zeigen sich erholt. Nickel haussiert um 7,4%, Zink verbessert sich um 1,4%.
...
...
...
ganzer Artikel:
http://www.goldseiten.de/content/marktberichte/marktberichte…
von Martin Siegel
Der Goldpreis steigt nach der gestrigen US-Leitzinssenkung im nachbörslichen New Yorker Handel bis auf 726 $/oz an. Heute morgen notiert der Goldpreis im frühen Londoner Handel mit 724 $/oz um etwa 7 $/oz über dem Vortagesniveau und setzt den steilen Aufwärtstrend der letzten Tage damit fort. Die Goldminenaktien reagieren sehr positiv auf den Goldpreisanstieg und haussieren parallel zu den übrigen Industrieaktien. Auf Eurobasis wird der Goldpreisanstieg durch den schwachen Dollar gedämpft (aktueller Preis 16.644 Euro/kg, Vortag 16.632 Euro/kg). Nach dem Ende der aktuellen mittelfristigen Seitwärtsentwicklung erwarten wir für die nächsten Monate eine sich beschleunigende Fortsetzung der Goldhausse in Richtung unseres Zwischen-Preisziels von 750 $/oz und des alten historischen Höchstkurses von 871 $/oz. Aufgrund der fundamentalen Verfassung des Goldmarktes halten wir eine Umkehr des langfristigen Aufwärtstrends praktisch für ausgeschlossen. Eine sich zuspitzende Finanzkrise an den Papiergeldmärkten (incl. der dann wertlos verfallenden Zertifikate auf Gold) könnte dabei jederzeit zu einem explosionsartigen Goldpreisanstieg führen.
Langfristig wird der Goldpreis durch eine breit angelegte Aufwärtsentwicklung des Ölpreises, der Basismetallpreise und des Silberpreises unterstützt, der sich in den letzten Wochen relativ zum Goldpreis schwächer entwickelt hat und dadurch Nachholpotential aufgebaut hat (aktueller Preis 13,07 $/oz, Vortag 12,81 $/oz). Platin bleibt stabil auf einem hohen Niveau (aktueller Preis 1.311 $/oz, Vortag 1.305 $/oz), Palladium bleibt zurück (aktueller Preis 335 $/oz, Vortag 334 $/oz). Die Basismetalle zeigen sich erholt. Nickel haussiert um 7,4%, Zink verbessert sich um 1,4%.
...
...
...
ganzer Artikel:
http://www.goldseiten.de/content/marktberichte/marktberichte…
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 31.652.448 von e_type1 am 18.09.07 23:14:31
schluss auf tageshoch bei 0,68 
+6,3%
+6,3%
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 31.641.710 von Tresnam am 18.09.07 11:40:46
Jetzt (auch) der Verkäufer...
...die Beknackten sterben (leider) nicht aus!
Jetzt (auch) der Verkäufer...
...die Beknackten sterben (leider) nicht aus!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 31.640.139 von to_siam am 18.09.07 09:38:2809:05:50 0,417 1343 (Frankfurt)
Der Makler oder der Verkäufer?
Der Makler oder der Verkäufer?
Der Makler hat doch einen Knall:
Geld
0,417
Brief
0,484
Zeit
18.09.07 09:05
Geld
0,417
Brief
0,484
Zeit
18.09.07 09:05
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22.04.24 · IRW Press · Starcore International Mines |
22.01.24 · IRW Press · Starcore International Mines |
29.08.23 · IRW Press · Starcore International Mines |
Starcore setzt mit dem Erwerb eines Projekts an der Côte d‘Ivoire auf geopolitische Diversifizierung 16.08.23 · IRW Press · Starcore International Mines |