Stehen die Weltbörsen vor einem Crash ??? (Seite 31683)
eröffnet am 01.08.07 21:18:51 von
neuester Beitrag 17.04.24 20:40:40 von
neuester Beitrag 17.04.24 20:40:40 von
Beiträge: 348.099
ID: 1.131.140
ID: 1.131.140
Aufrufe heute: 117
Gesamt: 19.330.151
Gesamt: 19.330.151
Aktive User: 0
ISIN: DE0008469008 · WKN: 846900
17.792,00
PKT
+0,11 %
+19,00 PKT
Letzter Kurs 18:36:10 Lang & Schwarz
Neuigkeiten
16:33 Uhr · wallstreetONLINE Redaktion |
18:04 Uhr · dpa-AFX |
18:00 Uhr · SG Zertifikate Anzeige |
Beitrag zu dieser Diskussion schreiben
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.769.657 von Zockus am 15.03.09 14:45:04Warum kannst du denn nicht auf Frage antworten die an dich gerichtet hatte?
Unqualifizierte Aussagen und teilweise Pöbeleien, mehr kommt nicht von dir.
Naja, keiner kann so richtig voraussagen was steigen und was fallen wird.
Wenn es aber für deine Ignoreliste Calls gäbe, würde ich mein ganzes Vermögen einsetzen.
Und Tschüss.
Unqualifizierte Aussagen und teilweise Pöbeleien, mehr kommt nicht von dir.
Naja, keiner kann so richtig voraussagen was steigen und was fallen wird.
Wenn es aber für deine Ignoreliste Calls gäbe, würde ich mein ganzes Vermögen einsetzen.
Und Tschüss.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.769.625 von boersenbuddha am 15.03.09 14:30:08wenn dann salarparc wieder bei 7 steht steht deine feinunze eben bei 230. nachkaufen, damit sich die verluste auch lohnen.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.769.307 von Don_Camillo am 15.03.09 12:53:33Für Gold zu werben ist auf Dummenfang zu gehen..
Peppone hat mir erzählt, dass dein im September "angeblich sicheres Investment" Solarparc bei 7 EUR stand, jetzt bei 4,50 EUR
Die Feinunze Gold bei 570 EUR, jetzt bei 718 EUR
Peppone hat mir erzählt, dass dein im September "angeblich sicheres Investment" Solarparc bei 7 EUR stand, jetzt bei 4,50 EUR
Die Feinunze Gold bei 570 EUR, jetzt bei 718 EUR
Und der Herrenanzug ist 3Mal so teuer heute wie 2001...
Mehr über Goldstandard hier... hat überhaupt keinen praktischen Nutzen da er unterwandert wird...
=> http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldstandard
Mehr über Goldstandard hier... hat überhaupt keinen praktischen Nutzen da er unterwandert wird...
=> http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldstandard
Und weil mal jeder egoistisch ist wird eher der IWF gestärkt als es zu einem neuen Goldstandard kommt, weil derzeit die Mengen ungleich verteilt sind...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.769.380 von Oldieman am 15.03.09 13:15:25Kann man schon machen, dazu müsste man aber den Egoismus im Menschen/Völkern abschaffen...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.769.105 von risk0207 am 15.03.09 11:44:41in einem anderen System, welches honorige Ziele für die Weltbevölkerung hat und die sozialen, regionalen Ungleichgewichte beseitigt.
Das hört sich gut an, aber wie soll das im Einzelnen funktionieren
Das hört sich gut an, aber wie soll das im Einzelnen funktionieren
Für Gold zu werben ist auf Dummenfang zu gehen...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.768.907 von Kostolany4 am 15.03.09 10:25:47So ist es. Gold ist im langfristigen Aufwärtstrend und der ist noch lange nicht zu Ende, im Gegenteil.
Das Problem ist doch, dass du auch dies hier sehen könntest:
Ich wüsste zwar auch nicht warum Gold so stark fallen sollte, aber die Umsätze waren beim letzten Anstieg zum 1000er deutlich niedriger als beim ersten Anstieg im März 2008.
Das Problem ist doch, dass du auch dies hier sehen könntest:
Ich wüsste zwar auch nicht warum Gold so stark fallen sollte, aber die Umsätze waren beim letzten Anstieg zum 1000er deutlich niedriger als beim ersten Anstieg im März 2008.
Roubini: "Reflections on the latest sucker’s rally"
[...]
"For those who argue that the second derivative of economic activity is turning positive (i.e. economies are contracting but a slower rate than in Q4 of 2008) the latest data don’t confirm this relative optimism. In Q4 of 2008 GDP fell by about 6% in the US, 6% in the Eurozone, by 8% in Germany, by 12% in Japan, by 16% in Singapore and by 20% in South Korea. So things are even more awful in Europe and Asia than the US ...
First, note that most indicators suggest that the second derivative of economic activity is still sharply negative in Europe and Japan and close to negative in the US and China: some signals that the second derivative was turning positive for US and China (a stabilizing ISM and PMI, credit growing in January in China, commodity prices stabilizing, retail sales up in the US in January) turned out to be fake starts. For the US, the Empire State and Philly Fed index of manufacturing are still in free fall; initial claims for unemployment benefits are up to scary levels suggesting accelerating job losses; the sales increases in January is a fluke (more of a rebound from a very depressed December after aggressive post-holiday sales than a sustainable recovery).
For China the growth of credit in China is only driven by firms borrowing cheap to invest in higher returning deposits not to invest; and steel prices in China have resumed their sharp fall. The more scary data are those for trade flows in Asia with exports falling by about 40 to 50% in Japan, Taiwan, Korea for example. Even correcting for the effect of the new Chinese Year exports and imports are sharply down in China with imports falling (-40%) more than exports. This is a scary signal as Chinese imports are mostly raw materials and intermediate inputs; so while Chinese exports have fallen so far less than the rest of Asia they may fall much more sharply in the months ahead as signaled by the free fall in imports.
With economic activity contracting in Q1 at the same rate as in Q4 a nasty U-shaped recession could turn into a more severe L-shaped near-depression (or stag-deflation) as I argued for a while (most recently in my Sunday New York Times op-ed). The scale and speed of syncronized global economic contraction is really unprecedented (at least since the Great Depression) with a free fall of GDP, income, consumption, industrial production, employment, exports, imports, residential investment and, more ominously, capex spending around the world. And now many emerging market economies – as argued here for a while- are on the verge of a fully fledged financial crisis starting with Emerging Europe."
As usual Professor Roubini makes some strong arguments. And I agree that economic activity is contracting in Q1 2009 at about the same pace as in Q4 2008. However, I think the composition of the contraction is different in Q1 (and following the normal business cycle). Most of the real GDP decline in Q1 will be from slumping investment and an inventory correction, whereas in Q4, declines in personal consumption (PCE) were an important contributor to the economic slump.
Maybe PCE will start cliff diving again, but so far the recession (no matter how severe) is still following the normal temporal pattern. Note: Even the Great Depression followed the normal pattern - just more so! Although there are still severe economic problems ahead, I think the shift in the composition is a potential positive. (See: Business Cycle: Temporal Order)
It is still way to early to call the bottom - and even after the economy bottoms, I think the recovery will be very sluggish for some time - but I am watching for the signs (see Looking for the Sun). Roubini concludes:
So, in conclusion and caveat emptor for investors: Dear investors, do enjoy this dead cat bounce and bear market sucker’s rally ... don’t wait too long until you jump ship while the financial Titanic hits the next financial iceberg: you may get squeezed and crashed in the rush to the lifeboats.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/roubini-reflection…
[...]
"For those who argue that the second derivative of economic activity is turning positive (i.e. economies are contracting but a slower rate than in Q4 of 2008) the latest data don’t confirm this relative optimism. In Q4 of 2008 GDP fell by about 6% in the US, 6% in the Eurozone, by 8% in Germany, by 12% in Japan, by 16% in Singapore and by 20% in South Korea. So things are even more awful in Europe and Asia than the US ...
First, note that most indicators suggest that the second derivative of economic activity is still sharply negative in Europe and Japan and close to negative in the US and China: some signals that the second derivative was turning positive for US and China (a stabilizing ISM and PMI, credit growing in January in China, commodity prices stabilizing, retail sales up in the US in January) turned out to be fake starts. For the US, the Empire State and Philly Fed index of manufacturing are still in free fall; initial claims for unemployment benefits are up to scary levels suggesting accelerating job losses; the sales increases in January is a fluke (more of a rebound from a very depressed December after aggressive post-holiday sales than a sustainable recovery).
For China the growth of credit in China is only driven by firms borrowing cheap to invest in higher returning deposits not to invest; and steel prices in China have resumed their sharp fall. The more scary data are those for trade flows in Asia with exports falling by about 40 to 50% in Japan, Taiwan, Korea for example. Even correcting for the effect of the new Chinese Year exports and imports are sharply down in China with imports falling (-40%) more than exports. This is a scary signal as Chinese imports are mostly raw materials and intermediate inputs; so while Chinese exports have fallen so far less than the rest of Asia they may fall much more sharply in the months ahead as signaled by the free fall in imports.
With economic activity contracting in Q1 at the same rate as in Q4 a nasty U-shaped recession could turn into a more severe L-shaped near-depression (or stag-deflation) as I argued for a while (most recently in my Sunday New York Times op-ed). The scale and speed of syncronized global economic contraction is really unprecedented (at least since the Great Depression) with a free fall of GDP, income, consumption, industrial production, employment, exports, imports, residential investment and, more ominously, capex spending around the world. And now many emerging market economies – as argued here for a while- are on the verge of a fully fledged financial crisis starting with Emerging Europe."
As usual Professor Roubini makes some strong arguments. And I agree that economic activity is contracting in Q1 2009 at about the same pace as in Q4 2008. However, I think the composition of the contraction is different in Q1 (and following the normal business cycle). Most of the real GDP decline in Q1 will be from slumping investment and an inventory correction, whereas in Q4, declines in personal consumption (PCE) were an important contributor to the economic slump.
Maybe PCE will start cliff diving again, but so far the recession (no matter how severe) is still following the normal temporal pattern. Note: Even the Great Depression followed the normal pattern - just more so! Although there are still severe economic problems ahead, I think the shift in the composition is a potential positive. (See: Business Cycle: Temporal Order)
It is still way to early to call the bottom - and even after the economy bottoms, I think the recovery will be very sluggish for some time - but I am watching for the signs (see Looking for the Sun). Roubini concludes:
So, in conclusion and caveat emptor for investors: Dear investors, do enjoy this dead cat bounce and bear market sucker’s rally ... don’t wait too long until you jump ship while the financial Titanic hits the next financial iceberg: you may get squeezed and crashed in the rush to the lifeboats.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/roubini-reflection…
18:26 Uhr · Robby's Elliottwellen · DAX |
18:04 Uhr · dpa-AFX · Henkel VZ |
18:00 Uhr · SG Zertifikate · DAXAnzeige |
18:00 Uhr · onemarkets Blog · DAXAnzeige |
17:56 Uhr · Konstantin Oldenburger · DAX |
17:49 Uhr · dpa-AFX · DAX |
17:34 Uhr · Markus Weingran · ABB |
16:33 Uhr · wallstreetONLINE Redaktion · DAX |
16:02 Uhr · IG Europe · DAXAnzeige |
15:20 Uhr · dpa-AFX · Apple |
Zeit | Titel |
---|---|
18:31 Uhr | |
18:12 Uhr | |
13:11 Uhr | |
08:53 Uhr | |
07:55 Uhr | |
17.04.24 | |
17.04.24 | |
16.04.24 | |
16.04.24 | |
15.04.24 |