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46% Eigenkapitalrendite - KGV 2007 von ca.8


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Ceradyne habe ich schon länger im Auge, waren mir aber immer zu teuer.

Jetzt kamen die Q3-Zahlen, wo sie einen geringen Gewinnrückgang hatten und der Kurs hat sich fast halbiert.

Sie machen High-Tech Keramik, die z.B. für Panzerungen (das ist leider im Moment das größte Geschäftsfeld) und auch Solar Crucibles verwendet wird.

Zweiteres ist zwar noch ein sehr kleiner Geschäftsbereich, scheint aber sehr stark zu wachsen.

Für diese hochreinen Tiegel gibt es weltweit nur eine Handvoll Anbieter. Und es ist das klassische Verbrauchsmaterial. Jeder Ofen von GT Solar oder Centrotherm wird nur einmal verkauft. Aber im Betrieb benötigt man immer wieder neue Crucibles.

Habe mir heute erstmal eine kleine Position gesichert, damit ich laufend etwas genauer hinschaue. Wenn ich Vertrauen in die Entwicklung aufbauen sollte, kann ich mir auch ein post-2009 Engagement vorstellen.

Kommenden Dienstag gibt es einen Conference Call, in dem das Management den Aktionären wohl klarmachen will, dass der Kursrutsch übertrieben war.
Ceradyne to Host Teleconference ''Update'' Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Tuesday November 20, 12:07 pm ET

COSTA MESA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ceradyne, Inc. (Nasdaq:CRDN - News) will host a teleconference in order to update investors on Ceradyne’s overview of both its short and longer term outlook. Ceradyne management feels that this teleconference would be helpful to answer investor questions.

We plan to cover the following:

* Reiterate our 2007 and 2008 guidance
* Comment on the status of our vehicle armor program, and the BULL™ in particular
* Comment on body armor opportunities including the Company’s outlook on XSAPI and ESAPI
* Comment on increased demand for solar related ceramic crucibles
* Comment on positive performance of Ceradyne’s two 2007 acquisitions of Minco and EaglePicher Boron
* Other non-military opportunities

Any investor or interested individual can listen to the teleconference, which is scheduled to begin at 8 a.m. PST (11 a.m. EST) on November 27, 2007. To participate in the teleconference, please call toll free 877-717-3046 (or 706-634-6364 for international callers) approximately 10 minutes prior to the above start time.

You may also listen to the teleconference live via the Internet at www.ceradyne.com or www.earnings.com. For those unable to attend, these web sites will host an archive of the call. A telephone playback will be available beginning at 11 a.m. PST on November 27 through 9 p.m. PST on November 29, 2007. The playback can be accessed by calling 800-642-1687 (or 706-645-9291 for international callers) and providing Conference ID 25428976.

Ceradyne develops, manufactures and markets advanced technical ceramic products and components for defense, industrial, automotive/diesel and commercial applications. Additional information about the Company can be found at www.ceradyne.com
Ceradyne eröffnet Tiegelfabrik in China

19.09.2007: Nach Silizium werden inzwischen auch Quarztiegel knapp. In den Behältern aus hochreinem Kieselglas erstarrt das flüssige Silizium zu Ingots, bevor es anschließend zu Wafern weiterverarbeitet wird.

© Ceradyne Tianjin Technical Ceramics

Einweihung der neuen Ceradyne-Fabrik in China

Als Antwort auf den massiven Ausbau der weltweiten Kapazitäten für Solarsilizium hat nun die im kalifornischen Costa Mesa ansässige Ceradyne Inc. ihre Produktionskapazitäten für Quarztiegel deutlich ausgebaut. Im Juli wurde im chinesischen Tianjin eine neue Fabrik in Betrieb genommen, die jährlich bis zu 30.000 dieser Tiegel herstellen kann. Produziert werden (wie bereits am Standort Atlanta im US-Bundesstaat Georgia) Standardgrößen von 720 mal 720 Millimeter Kantenlänge bei einer Höhe von 420 Millimetern – ausreichend für jeweils 16 Siliziumblöcke mit 156 Millimeter Kantenlänge.

Die chinesische Fabrik soll aber außerdem in der Lage sein, bereits die neue Generation Tiegel mit 880 Millimetern Kantenlänge zu fertigen, die dann für 25 Blöcke reichen. Zusammen mit dem Werk in Atlanta kann Ceradyne damit künftig 50.000 Tiegel pro Jahr produzieren. Diese reichen für rund 1.500 Megawatt Solarzellen, was rund einem Viertel der diesjährigen Weltproduktion entspricht. Laut Scott Higgenbottom, Produktmanager Photovoltaikanwendungen bei Ceradyne, ist der weitere Ausbau der Produktionskapazitäten bereits geplant und zwar »eher früher als später«. Denn die Tiegel aus der chinesischen Niederlassung werden seiner Vermutung nach kaum ausreichen, die gestiegene Nachfrage asiatischer Firmen zu befriedigen. Viel Auswahl haben diese nicht: Die auf Hochleistungskeramik spezialisierte Ceradyne Inc. ist einer von weltweit nur vier Herstellern, die die von der Photovoltaikindustrie benötigten hochreinen Quarztiegel in größerem Umfang herstellen – darunter Vesuvius France S.A., Tecnofimes Srl und Toshiba Ceramics Co. Ltd.
Boradpoint Capital is positive on Ceradyne (NASDAQ:CRDN) saying that on the scheduled business update call tomorrow, they expect the company to reiterate its initial CY08 EPS guidance of $5.60-$6.65 on revenues of $780M-$1.07B.

There has been some speculation that initial MRAP II test results may not have been positive. Their checks indicate no definitive results on this front so far. As the vehicles have already been returned to the company after the ballistic test, they expect the company to talk about the initial analysis on the test.

Firm continues to expect more body armor orders in the near term. While existing orders would take the company's current body armor shipment run-rate through the end of this year, there have been doubts about the company getting new orders to sustain this run-rate through the end of 1Q:CY08. They expect management to reiterate their confidence in upcoming body armor orders and future orders for the next-generation XSAPI body armors.

The stock currently trades at less than 8x firm's CY08 EPS estimate, which does not include any contribution from the MRAP II program. They believe this presents a strong buying opportunity. Reiterates Buy and $84 target.
Ceradyne (CRDN) is a Costa Mesa, California based company that is an integrated developer and manufacturer of advanced technical ceramic products and components for defense, industrial, automotive, electronic and medical markets.

Ceradyne's defense products include ballistic armor protection for military personnel and vehicles, and missile nose cones. They also design and make components for diesel engines, oil drilling, and surgical procedures.

After trading around near $79 as late as October 10th, Ceradyne on October 30th reported 3rd quarter earnings of $1.16 per diluted share. This was a 14.7% (or $0.20) miss according to Wall Street estimates. Ceradyne also stated that earnings for the full year would fall at the lower end of a previously announced range of $5.20 to $5.40. This has sent the stock down over 46% (Stock currently at 42.26). But at current levels, is Ceradyne now a good stock to buy? I'll give the case for and against it.
Ceradyne is a good stock to buy

Ceradyne's earnings miss was contributed in part by higher research and development costs. Ceradyne is trying to angle themselves to get a major part of next year's military expenditure for approximately 2000 next-generation armored vehicles as well as for future body-armor orders. Ceradyne hopes that their BULL combat vehicle and XSAPI body armor beats out the competition.

Right now at current earnings Ceradyne is trading at a current price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.8. According to some estimates, next year Ceradyne could see earnings per share [EPS] as high as 6.65 per diluted share which would give them a forward P/E of 6.4. That P/E is very low compared to its peers, thus making it a strong buy.
Ceradyne is not a good stock to buy

Ceradyne missed last quarter on earnings by 14.7%. Some people on Wall Street think that Ceradyne might not get as major of a part of the next-generation armored vehicles and body armor as expected. Since the military sales account for 77% of Ceradyne's yearly sales, not obtaining a good portion of that contract would have a negative impact on earnings.

Also some see the war winding down in Iraq, which would mean military orders would be slowing down. If military orders are down, Ceradyne's earnings will go down as well.
Zitat aus YAHOO-Board:

This portion of the business seems to have been lost in all the talk about the bull.

I spent my career in the diecasting business and the ability to effectively process molten aluminum is a huge deal. In the molten state there is a large presence of aluminum oxide which is basically what grinder wheels and sandpaper are made of. This oxide does not allow any type of metal injection where the injection unit is submerged in molten aluminum. So what you are left with in the diecast process is having to pour molten metal into a tube and push this metal into the die with a piston. This process is slow and very hard to control. Zinc diecasting on the other hand does not have this oxide problem. In the zinc process the injection unit is submerged in the molten metal and it allows for very fast and efficient injection into the mold.

At issue is aluminum is much stronger and much lighter than zinc. The industry has spent decades trying to figure out a way to diecast aluminum using the faster more efficient zinc process. Back in the 80's My company had very limited success using an injection unit made out of, guess what, ceramics. We were not smart enough to get over the technology hurdles so we abandoned the project. If Crdn can overcome these issues the market potential is huge.

Just food for thought
Ceradyne Opens First Solar Energy Ceramic-Related Factory in Tianjin, China

Ceradyne, (Nachrichten) Inc. (Nasdaq: CRDN) announced today the opening ceremonies for its new 98,000 square foot factory in Tianjin, China. This newly constructed factory will produce high purity ceramic crucibles for the forming of large polysilicon ingots for use in the manufacturing of photovoltaic silicon solar cells.

The opening ceremonies were attended by local and other officials as well as customers, vendors and key Ceradyne executives, including Ceradyne CEO and Chairman of the Board, Joel P. Moskowitz. The facility, located on Ceradyne's five-acre plot in Tianjin's Tanggu National Marine High Tech Development Zone, will supply the exact components to its Chinese photovoltaic solar cell customer base as it is currently producing in Atlanta, Georgia, where the technology was developed. The Ceradyne Tianjin facility will be run by Ceradyne Chinese executives and engineers who have been trained by U.S. based Ceradyne Thermo Materials' management for some time.

Bruce Lockhart, Ceradyne Vice President responsible for the Company's solar energy efforts, commented: “This is a very exciting event for Ceradyne and particularly for Ceradyne Thermo Materials. Only three years ago, we established a major dedicated facility in Atlanta for the development and manufacture of these high technology ceramic crucibles for sale to solar cell fabricators. This new Tianjin plant replicates the Atlanta plant, only it is much larger, to meet our Chinese customer requirements.“�

Ceradyne develops, manufactures, and markets advanced technical ceramic products and components for defense, industrial, automotive/diesel, and commercial applications. Additional information about the Company can be found at www.ceradyne.com.
Habe mir heute morgen mal den CC von gestern angehört.

Sie werden in 2007 ca. 9,7 MUSD mit Crucibles umsetzen.
in 2008 erwarten sie >50 und
in 2009 >100 MUSD.

Derzeitiger Q-Umsatz ca. 180-200 MUSD.

Das Problem -wenn es denn eines ist- ist, dass fast 80% des Umsatzes aus Defense kommen. Dafür sind sie extrem profitabel bzw. niedrig bewertet.

Andererseits ist die Solargeschichte bei den covernden Analysten wohl noch gar nicht angekommen: einer fragte tatsächlich, ob es sich um Consumables handele...

So wie ich die Antwort verstanden habe, brauchen sie tatsächlich für jeden Ingot ein neues.

Auch die Al-Geschichte scheint interessant zu sein (siehe vorheriges Yahoo-Posting). Dazu gibt es eine interessante Präsentation vom Januar (Needham-Conference):


Nach jeder Order, die ich heute in D platziert habe, wurde der Kurs hochgezogen, bekommen habe ich nichts.

Es gibt wohl auch einen sehr hohen Short-interest. Könnte also zu einem Squeeze kommen....

Was nun tun?

Bisher habe ich fast imer, wenn ich mich schnell zu einem Kauf entschieden habe, auf die Nase bekommen.

Andererseits sieht die aktuelle Situation attraktiv aus.

Hörschwelle hilf! Oder MontPelerin, oder, oder, ...
Yesterday morning, Ceradyne (CRDN) had a conference call to provide accurate information to the marketplace as well as to give an update to current and future business ventures. Ceradyne felt that incorrect information was being let out to the marketplace in the areas of their 2007/2008 guidance as well as their body and vehicle armor contracts. The following is a summary of their conference call.
2007 - 2008 Guidance

Ceradyne reiterated their Q4 2007 and Full-Year 2008 Guidance. Their current 2008 guidance is for revenues of $780 million to $1.067 billion. The low end of the range is based on their current business units. The high end of the guidance is based on winning orders for the Bull Vehicle.
Armor Programs

Ceradyne was informed Monday they would receive a $107 million dollar release on its prior ESAPI contract to continue production until the end of May 2008.

The new ESAPI/XSAPI solicitation is due in early December. The award will be given out no later than April 1, 2008 with delivery by June 30, 2008. The 5-Year IDIQ contract fully funded is valued at 1.5 billion.

Ceradyne also mentioned it was likely to receive a significant SOCOM award. The 5-Year IDIQ contract value is in excess of 400 million.

In regards to the, Ceradyne's MRAP II Vehicle The BULL, the government is still reviewing the bid package and the decision date won't be until January, 2008. The government tested two BULL vehicles and according to Ceradyne there were no penetrations of the crew cabs of either vehicle. They are still awaiting the government report of the tests.

Ceradyne is also in negotiations with a major vehicle OEM for the first alternative LTAS light weight armor kit that will be delivered in the first quarter of next year.
Current Non-military business

Ceradyne mentioned their solar cell casting ceramic crucibles should bring in approximately $10 million 2007, $50 million in 2008, and $100 million in 2009.
This product line provides good margins and they believe this product line will be a strong one in the future.
2007 Acquistions

Ceradyne has found new proprietary use for boron isotope for applications in semiconductor area. The margins are excellent and they are only at 25% capacity.
Future Non-military business

Ceradyne is working with largest aluminm companies in the world to improve the smelting of aluminum with their ceramic technology.

Ceradyne is also working on methodology to extract high visocity oil from oil sands in Canada.
My Take on the Conference Call

It's nice to see the company do a conference call to clear up the misconceptions in the market especially since its stock price was cut in half because of many of these misconceptions.

Ceradyne's aim to diversify its revenue and client base (away from primarily military) is a good one. It's a bonus that those non-military products are high margin products.

The government report on the BULL vehicle tests will be a big catalyst for the stock. A positive report will calm down the doubters that Ceradyne won't get a portion of the MRAP II vehicle contract. A negative report will bring some doubt to the company. But with Ceradyne saying there was no damage to the vehicles, the chances of a negative report are slim.

Ceradyne's stock responded strongly yesterday finishing up $3.06 to $45.57. With some of the fear being taken out of this stock, this stock has plenty of upside in the months to come.

Kurs geht schon mehr als 8% nach oben.

Diesmal war es ein Fehler (bisher), nicht zu kaufen.

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