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Rohstoff-Explorer: Research oder Neuvorstellung


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Dieser thread soll der Untersuchung von Rohstoff-Explorern dienen.

Dabei kann es sich um eine Neuvorstellung oder Untersuchung bereits bekannter Explorer handeln.

Ziel der jeweiligen Analyse ist, ob der Explorer auf Basis der untersuchten Daten und des daraus resultierenden Ergebnisses eine lukrative Investion darstellt oder sich ein Kauf (noch) nicht lohnt.

Diskussionen und Anregungen sind willkommen!

tommy :)
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Brockman Resources (BRM)

WKN: A0M8EK

Brockman Resources ist ein australischer Explorer der seine Eisenerz-Gebiete zwischen den Gebieten von Fortescue und BHP hat. Die nächste Bahnverbindung zum BHP-Schienenweg liegt ca. 35 km entfernt. Straßen sind in der Nähe vorhanden.

Aktienanzahl: 93 Mio.
Aktienkurs: 1,10 EUR
Marktkapitalisierung: 102 Mio. EUR

Das Hauptprojekt ist das Marillana Projekt bei dem 1,1 Mrd. t Eisenerz mit 57,5 - 59,8% Fe-Gehalt vorhanden sein soll. Nach JORC wurden davon bisher 338 Mio. t als “indicated resource“ ermittelt. Für die Differenz zu den 1,1 Mrd. t läuft ein weiteres Bohrprogramm.

Die Mine dürfte bei 10 Mio. t Jahresproduktion eine Lebenszeit von >30 Jahren haben.
Die Mine soll mit zunächst 2 Mio. t Jahresproduktion Ende 2009 starten und dann bis Ende 2011 auf 10 Mio. t. Jahresproduktion hochgefahren werden.


Der Business Plan von Brockman Resources sieht folgenden Ablauf vor:

04/2008: Completion of Scoping Study

05/2008: Commence Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS)

12/2008: Confirm agreements with Third Party –infrastructure

12/2008: Prepare and submit a Mining Lease and Works Approval (including Environmental) for 2Mtpa mining operation

12/2008: Finalise Marketing and Financing Strategy

05/2009: Pre-feasibility Study completion

06/2009: Commence Bankable/Definitive Feasibility Study (BFS)

06/2009: Approval of NOI and Mining Licence for 2Mtpa business case

06/2009: Early mining commencement at Marillana

11/2009: Road transport (1-2 Mt) to Port Hedland or third party site(s)

12/2009: Early sales of iron ore (across Utah Point/FMG Berths)

11/2009: Potential approval for rail spur to Cloud Break

11/2009: Potential thirdparty access to BHP B rail system

12/2009: Commence construction of10 Mtpa Processing Facility

12/2011: Commence commissioning of 10Mtpa processing Facility


Das größte Handicap, das ich bei Brockman Resources sehe, ist der Zugang zum Schienennetz von BHP. Fortescue will ja ab Mai 2008 sein Erz über das Schienennetz von BHP transportieren und „kämpft“ noch mit der Zulassung. Die Entwicklung bei Fortescue könnte dann auch wegweisend für Brockman Resources sein, denn laut Gesetz ist BHP verpflichtet, sein Schienennetz auch anderen zugänglich zu machen.

Der Vorstandsvorsitzende von Brockman Resources Wayne Richards hat früher bei BHP in leitender Position gearbeitet und soll über sehr gute Kontakte zu BHP verfügen, so dass ich hier eine Einigung zum Benutzen des BHP-Schienennetzes als wahrscheinlich erachte. Jedoch muss man diesen Punkt im Auge behalten. Alternativen wären weiter entfernte Schienenwege mit streckenweisem Transport per Lkw, die jedoch die Opex erhöhen würden und damit den Gewinn schmälern würden. Das BHP-Schienennetz bleibt aber erste Wahl und stellt den kostengünstigsten Transportweg dar.

Wie könnte die Umsatz- und Gewinnentwicklung aussehen?
Ich unterstelle eine Kapitalerhöhung durch Herausgabe neuer Aktien und eine Finanzierung im 70/30% Verhältnis von Fremd- zu Eigenkapital:

Geschätztes Ergebnis: . 2010 …… 2011 ……. 2012 …..… 2013
Angenom. Aktienanzahl . 150 Mio. .. 200 Mio. .. 250 Mio. .. 250 Mio.
Produziertes Eisenerz: ... 2 Mio. t …. 2 Mio. t .... 8 Mio. t .... 10 Mio. t
Gesamtumsatz . USD .. 170 Mio. …. 170 Mio. ....660 Mio. .. 850 Mio.
Opex (operating cost) .... 80 Mio. ...... 80 Mio. ... 320 Mio. ... 400 Mio.
Capex/AfA ………..…..... 15 Mio. ...... 25 Mio. ..... 70 Mio. ..... 90 Mio.
= EBIT ........................... 75 Mio. ...... 65 Mio. .... 270 Mio. .. 360 Mio.
minus Zinsen (interest) . 20 Mio. ....... 25 Mio. .......70 Mio. .....90 Mio.
= EBT (Bruttogewinn) .... 55 Mio. .... . 40 Mio. .... 200 Mio. ... 270 Mio.
minus Steuer (tax) ........ 16 Mio. ...... 12 Mio. ….. 60 Mio. ..... 81 Mio.
= Netto-Profit/Gewinn .... 39 Mio. ….. 28 Mio. … 140 Mio. ….189 Mio.
= E/S Gewinn pro Aktie:. 0,26 $ …… 0,14 $ …… 0,56 $ …… 0,75 $
= Gewinn pro Aktie: …… 0,17 € …… 0,09 € …… 0,37 € …… 0,50 €
= KGV (Kurs 1,07 €): .… KGV 6,3 ….. KGV 12 …. KGV 2,9KGV 2,1

Kurs KGV 10: ………… 1,70 EUR . 0,90 EUR .. 3,70 EUR .. 5,00 EUR
Kurspotenzial : .............. 60%........... 0% ........... 245% ........ 370%


Was mir hierbei nicht so gefällt, ist der wahrscheinliche Gewinnrückgang in 2011 durch die Kosten/Finanzierung/KE für die geplante Produktionserhöhung auf 8 und 10 Mio. t. p. a.

Nach der Ankündigung der Ressourcen-Erweiterung auf 1,1 Mrd. t Eisenerz ist der Kurs stark angestiegen. Auf heutigem Kursniveau würde ich nicht kaufen. Wer hier einsteigen möchte, sollte einen Kursrücksetzer abwarten.

Neben den bei Explorern üblichen Risiken wie z. B. Bestätigung der Wirtschaftlichkeit der Projekte durch Machbarkeitsstudien, Finanzierung, Genehmigung seitens Behörden usw. besteht hier noch das Risiko des Zugangs zum BHP-Schienennetz.

Obige Prognose ist von mir erstellt worden, um mir selbst eine mögliche künftige Unternehmens-Entwicklung berechenbar zu machen. Es handelt sich um persönliche Annahmen, die keine Kaufaufforderung darstellen. Die Prognose erhebt nicht den Anspruch auf Richtigkeit/Vollständigkeit. Die Schlussfolgerungen sind meine persönliche, und damit subjektive Meinung.

... do your own research ...

tommy :)
Mein nächstes Research zielt auf einen Explorer im Bereich KOHLE.

Denn der Bedarf an Kohle für die Stahlherstellung, Chemie und für Kraftwerke wächst immer mehr. Preisteigerungen von über 50% machen die Förderung von Kohle immer lukrativer.

In diesem Bereich könnten sich gute Investmentchancen tummeln ...

tommy :)
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.629.770 von tommy-hl am 13.03.08 13:18:02Deine Analysen--wie immer TOP!:kiss:
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Supply shortages may raise coal prices 50% in 2008
March 4, 2008

Credit Suisse Group, Switzerland's second-largest bank, increased its price forecasts for coal used in power plants in 2008 by 50% because of supply shortages.

The price of benchmark Australia's Newcastle contract thermal coal is raised to $US120 ($128) a metric ton from a previous estimate of $US80 a ton, Credit Suisse analysts led by Hong Kong- based Trina Chen and Bangkok-based Pawaramon Suvarnatemee said in a report today.

Power-station coal for immediate delivery at Newcastle, a benchmark for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, last week traded at $US132.05 a ton, near a record, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index, as rains cut deliveries in Queensland and added to supply disruptions in China.

Xstrata Plc, Rio Tinto Group and other miners are struggling to meet increasing demand due to bottlenecks in port and rail networks in Australia's east.

Infrastructure ``constraints remain the major supply discipline on coal,'' the analysts said in the report. ``We expect the supply deficit for the seaborne thermal coal market to persist in 2008-2010.''

Credit Suisse also raised its forecasts for thermal coal prices in 2009 and 2010, stating that the Newcastle contract price may average $US100 a ton from a previous estimate of $US77 a ton, the analysts wrote in the report.

The bank boosted its long-term price forecast to $US75 a ton from $US60 a ton because the cost for ``marginal producers'' is at $US70 to $US80 a ton, free-on-board basis.

As traditional supplies from Australia and South Africa fall behind on infrastructure constraints, demand driven by new coal-fired power plants globally will be looking for ``higher- cost exports from the U.S. and Russia, in our opinion,'' the Credit Suisse analysts wrote.

The price for thermal coal may increase to $US130 a ton for the Japanese financial year beginning April 1, UBS AG said yesterday in a report by analysts led by Glyn Lawcock. The previous forecast was $US100 a ton. Estimates for coking coal, used to make steel, were raised 32% to $US225.

Credit Suisse also raised its forecasts for China's benchmark Qinghuangdao coal in the next three years. In 2008, the new price average is $US107 a ton from earlier estimates of $US80 a ton, and from 2009 to 2010, the price forecast is raised to $US101 a ton from $US81 a ton.

Estimates for so-called hard coking coal, used to make steel, was increased 38% this year to $US200 a ton, by 10% to $US160 a ton in 2009, and 12% to $US140 a ton in 2010, the bank analysts said.

Lower coal prices relative to oil will boost market share of the fuel in the global energy market, they wrote.

Rising prices prompted Credit Suisse to revise higher the earnings of seven coal producers that trade on Asian stock exchanges by between 9 and 38%, with ``top picks'' being China Coal Energy Co., PT Indo Tambangraya Megah and Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., the analysts said.
http://business.smh.com.au
Dieser Artikel ist zwar von Ende 2007, aber immer noch aktuell:

China, India to drive coal demand surge by 2030 - IEA

China and India will lead a 73 percent leap in world coal demand to 2030 to 4,994 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) from 2,892 in 2005, as it gains appeal due to costly oil and gas, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.”Higher oil and gas prices are making coal more competitive as a fuel for baseload local generation,” the IEA said in its World Energy Outlook.

“China and India, which already account for 45 percent of world coal use, drive over four-fifths of the increase to 2030.”

Demand for hard coal will grow in 2005-2030 to 7,173 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce), the report said.

Coal use will grow only very slowly in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, the report said. The IEA is the energy advisory body to the OECD.

Global inter-regional trade in hard coal is projected to grow 3 percent a year, more than doubling from 721 million tonnes in 2005 to 1.523 mt/yr by 2030. Most of this is steam coal, the report said.

In all regions, the outlook for coal use depends largely on relative fuel prices, government policies on fuel diversification, climate change and air pollution, and developments in clean coal technology in power generation, the IEA said.

Greater use of more efficient generation technology will cut the amount of coal needed to generate a kilowatt hour of electricity but is expected to boost the attraction of coal over other fuels, thereby leading to higher demand.

Both China and India will remain heavily dependent on coal, mostly produced indigenously, to energise their economies,” the IEA said.

Coal’s share of China’s energy demand will remain constant but in India coal’s share of the energy mix increases, the report said.

China, which became a net coal importer this year for the first time, will import more for power generation. Chinese net coal imports are set to reach 133 million tonnes by 2030 - 3 percent of global demand - the IEA said.

India will see a marked increase in steam and coking coal imports, the IEA said. Total coal imports are set to rise to 54 million tonnes by 2015 and to 151 million tonnes by 2030 from 39 million tonnes in 2005.

India will have to rely on imported coking coal for steel production and for increased steam coal imports for power generation because domestic coal production will continue to lag demand, the report said.

Port capacity has grown to meet rising imports and domestic shipments, from 8 Mt in 1996/97 to around 70 Mt in 2007. Future imports are unlikely to be constrained by a lack of port capacity, the IEA said.
www.chinatradeinformation.net
Ein Artikel vom Februar, der sich ein wenig mit der Bedeutung von Kohle befasst ...

Outlook 2008: Why Coal - the World’s Forgotten Fossil Fuel - is About to Double in Price
By Jason Simpkins

Over the past several weeks, the price of coal has soared to record highs. But few analysts think the run is over, and some believe that the price of coal could double in 2008.

Surging global demand and disruptions in supply have resulted in three straight weeks of record high coal prices at Australia’s Newcastle port, a benchmark for Asian demand. Power-station coal prices gained $9.04 per metric ton, or 7.8%, to reach $125.48 for the week ended Feb. 8, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index.

And the news for coal-users continued to get worse this week.

So-called "spot" prices for the thermal coal used in power generation reached $130 a metric ton this week, boosted by a series of supply disruptions in China and Australia.

The price of coal is up 37% already this year, analysts say. And that’s after coal prices rocketed 73% in 2007, Bloomberg News reported.

GlobalCOAL’s monthly index for Newcastle thermal coal prices rose $1.71 per metric ton, or 1.9%, to reach $90.87 in January, the fourth consecutive monthly record.

The soaring price of coal comes as coal suppliers and coal consumers enter into negotiations on annual contract prices set to go into effect April 1.

Citigroup Inc. (C), UBS AG (UBS), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), have all raised their forecasts for thermal coal contract prices for the 12 months beginning April 1. Both Citi and UBS think the contract price will double to $100 a ton. JPMorgan thinks the price settled upon will be closer to $90 a ton.

Goldman Sachs raised its contract price forecast for thermal coal to $110 a metric ton, which would be a 98% increase from last year’s agreed-upon price of $55.65 and a 22% jump from its earlier prediction of $90.

Both Citi and Goldman have predicted that "coking coal" - the coal used to make steel - will also double, reaching $200 a metric ton this year, up 104% from the contract price of $98 that’s been in effect over the past year.

The contract prices are lower than the market prices reflected at the Newcastle port because they were agreed-upon at the start of the soon-to-expire contract. Because market prices are not bound by such long-term agreements, they can rise or fall in response to current supply and demand conditions.

Spot prices for thermal coal "have soared in the past few weeks in response to severe coal production and transportation constraints in Australia, China and South Africa at a time when power utilities are holding critically low inventories of coal," Goldman Sachs resource analyst Malcolm Southwood wrote in a research report earlier this week. "We believe that the factors that have driven thermal coal prices higher in recent weeks will have a profound impact on [the] 2008-2009 contract negotiations."

The "Coal Rush"

The catalyst behind coal’s record run is all about basic supply and demand. Demand has soared over the past several years, as emerging nations like China and India have undergone a rapid economic and industrial expansion.

"All over the world everyone is looking for coal because all economies are developing … so they need energy … that’s why we are in this situation," Exxaro Resources Ltd. (OTC: EXXAY) Chief Executive Officer Sipho Nkosi told the Daily Dispatch.

Coal supplies 40% of the planet’s energy needs. Japan - one of the world’s largest importers - has been burning through its reserves since an earthquake damaged a key nuclear power station. India has been shipping in more coal, as well, despite already large domestic reserves.

India picked up its coal production by a third over the past decade and half, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, but its consumption has also jumped by a hefty 40% during that period. India counts on coal for nearly 70% of its total energy supply.

Demand even is even burgeoning in the United States, which has several coal-fired electric plants under construction, meaning coal demand might jump by another 50 million tons annually.

However the biggest surge in demand has come from China, home to 1.3 billion people and the world’s fastest-growing economy. Coal provides 78% of its energy needs, and coal demand in China jumped nearly 9% - meaning it now accounts for a full quarter of the world’s annual coal consumption, according to The Wall Street Journal.

China, which used to be a world leader in coal exports, did an about face in the first half of last year, importing more coal than it shipped out.

Five years ago, China exported 83 million metric tons more coal than it imported, The Journal reported. But last year, the surplus dropped to a meager 2 million metric tons.
The surplus decline of more than 80 million tons is equal to 12% of the internationally traded market for coal.

Vic Svec, a senior executive at Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU), the world’s largest private-sector coal producer, referred to China’s ability to influence the price of commodities as a "butterfly effect." He told the WSJ that "demand from Beijing can ripple back to Queensland, Australia, or Gillette, Wyoming."

Suicide Squeeze Play

In the face of soaring global demand, the supply of coal has been crimped - and in a big way.

The Chinese government said it had closed 10,412 mines by early January, and has plans to close down 1,100 more.

In South Africa, power shortages and flooding in South Africa have forced the closure of several mines. With such setbacks, the price of coal coming out of South Africa’s Richards Bay Coal Terminal, the world’s largest, jumped nearly 90% last year.

Several mines in Australia, another world leader in coal production, have also been beset by monsoons and flooding.

Xstrata PLC, the world’s biggest exporter of power-station coal said yesterday (Wednesday) that customers could miss deliveries from two mines in Queensland because of rain delays. At least four other Queensland coal suppliers have declared force majeure on deliveries since disruptive weather began taking its toll on the Bowen Basin in January.

Meanwhile, China, a leading producer and consumer, has been devastated by the worst blizzard of the past half-century. Three weeks of snowfall killed at least 60 people and cost the country approximately $7.5 billion.

Major railways and roads have been shut down, making traffic congestion during the Chinese New Year even more problematic for deliveries last week. As a result, less than 25% of the daily demand for coal shipments by rail has been met in the past week.

About 7% of China’s coal-fired power plants have come offline. The five biggest electricity producers shut down 90 power stations with a combined capacity exceeding 20,000 megawatts in northern and central China, according to the State Grid Corp. of China.

Zhu Hongren, a senior official from the National Development and Reform Commission, said that no less than 17 provinces have suffered power shortages and 13 provinces have been forced to ration power. The country has been forced to restrict its coal exports to boost domestic supplies.

"China has probably been the key issue; there’s been talk of a complete ban on exports and within that light that’s another four to five million tons just taken out of the Asia-Pacific market," Gerard Burg, an economist at National Australia Bank Ltd., told Bloomberg. "The market was already hot and that added more fuel to the fire."

Also, like its toy-making companies, China’s coal-fired power producers have faced an increasing amount of regulatory scrutiny because of environmental concerns. A study conducted by the World Bank concluded that air pollution from coal-fired plants is responsible for more than 400,000 premature deaths every year. That number was subsequently raised to 750,000, just weeks after the report’s release.

China is home to 16 of the 20 most-polluted cities in the world. And last year, the nation became of No. 1 emitter of greenhouse gases on the planet - a title the U.S. held for more than 100 years.

http://www.moneymorning.com
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Musterdepot

Ich werde hier hin und wieder auch Explorer vorstellen, die meiner Meinung nach ein hohes Gewinnpotenzial besitzen und kaufenswert sind.

Um die Performance meiner Empfehlungen auf den Prüfstand zu stellen, werde ich dazu auf Wunsch ein Musterdepot vorstellen.

Ins Musterdepot kommen nur Aktien, die ich hier vorgestellt habe. Dabei handelt es sich um Langfrist-Anlagen, die nicht „täglich“ ausgetauscht werden, sondern wie ein guter Wein ihre Zeit zum Reifen brauchen, um das volle Potenzial entwickeln zu können.

Für den, der kurzfristig orientiert ist, ist meine Anlageempfehlung nichts.

Soweit möglich wird die Stückzahl der Aktien durch „100“ teilbar sein, um realistische Trades darzustellen. Ich nehme dabei nur Aktien, die ich selber für mein privates Depot kaufe oder gekauft habe. Sollte sich am Unternehmen, am Markt oder in dem Land des Explorers bzw. seiner (zukünftigen) Mine etwas verschlechtern, wird die Aktie verkauft. Solange die Perspektiven des Explorers gut sind, bleibt die Aktie im Depot.

Es geht dabei nicht um den „schnellen Zock“, der mir schon für morgen 100% Gewinn verspricht. Sondern es geht um Investitionen, die mir auf Sicht von 2-5 Jahren außergewöhnliche Gewinne ermöglichen können. Es kann passieren, dass eine Aktie ein Jahr lang schlummert, um dann erst zu explodieren. Das nehme ich in Kauf!

Da Explorer in sich Risiken tragen, empfehle ich dringend die Verteilung des Kapitals auf mindestens 5 verschiedene Aktien. Wenn dann mal ein Flop darunter ist, wird der Verlust durch die anderen Aktien kompensiert. Wenn sich unter den (mindestens) 5 Aktien auch nur ein 10-bagger befinden sollte, spielt die Performance der anderen vier Aktien keine so große Rolle.

Das Ziel ist also, mindestens einen 10-bagger im Depot zu haben! Zum Verständnis: 10-bagger bedeutet, dass aus 1.000 EUR Anlagekapital die Summe von 10.000 EUR entsteht (also 900% Gewinn). Der Zeithorizont dazu sind 3-5 Jahre!

Das Depot fängt mit einer Startsumme von 10.000 EUR an. Ein update erfolgt in etwa im Monats-Rhythmus bzw. wenn eine Veränderung vorgenommen wird.

Es werden für das Depot die Kauf- bzw. Verkaufskurse des Tages genommen, an dem ich hier die Depot-Aufnahme bzw. den Verkauf verkünde! Mir liegt nichts daran unfaire Kurse zu benutzen. Ordergebühren werden pauschal mit 10 EUR pro Trade extra ausgewiesen.

Ich selber investiere privat und auf eigene Rechnung in die Aktien, die ich hier vorstelle. Ich arbeite weder beruflich noch nebenbei für irgendeinen Börsenbrief oder sonstige Interessen Dritter.

Die hier vorgestellten Aktien und Musterdepot-Werte dienen nur der allgemeinen Information, um anderen Anlegern die Möglichkeit zu geben, zu sehen, wie Kapital vermehrt werden kann. Sie stellen weder eine Kaufaufforderung dar, noch ersetzen sie das eigene Research!

Auf gute Gewinne ... ;)

tommy :)
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