Rohstoff-Explorer: Research oder Neuvorstellung (Seite 2685)

[tommy-hl]

Geodex hat nur noch wenig Cash und muss wohl bald eine Kapitalerhöhung vornehmen ...
Die evtl. Produktionverschiebung um ein Jahr verschlechtert auch die fundamentale Situation ...


November 03, 2008 - By Alastair Ford
Geodex Minerals Engages In Some Belt-Tightening On Its Tungsten Properties, But Overall The Fundamentals Still Look Good

It’s sure is a clear sign of the times that company directors are now cutting their own salaries. That’s just what the entire board of Geodex Minerals has done, from the president down, all part of a major cost-cutting exercise designed to see the company through the worst of the current credit crisis, and allow it to emerge intact out the other side.

The company has C$1.1 million in the bank, and one project funded until the end of the year by Teck Cominco, which is also the holder of a C$1 million convertible note, so although things are tight, there’s no impending doom.

There’s also a couple of bright spots on Geodex’s horizon. The first is the price of tungsten, the primary metal the company has in its portfolio, and the second is the price of molybdenum, which Geodex also has significant quantities of.

Geodex’s IR chief Christopher Anderson paid Minesite a visit this week, and explained how tungsten, as a non-terminal traded metal, is now actually reflecting the supply and demand balance better than LME-traded metals, where prices are complicated by hedging and other complex financial products. At US$9.00 per pound, tungsten’s off a bit since the financial crisis began, but not much, and the same goes for moly, which is now down in the high US$20s, but still a long way ahead of where it was a few years ago.

But in a way, the tungsten story is unique, and has its own unique support. When the world’s largest producer, China, switched from being a net exporter to a net importer back in 2005, the tungsten price re-rated dramatically. It’s still up at the new price levels, and given that new mines may now be put back as funding becomes harder to get hold of, supply may be squeezed even further. Certainly development at Geodex’s Sisson Brook project in New Brunswick has been slowed.

On the current timetable, the likely date for first production has been pushed back from 2012 to 2013. But that’s planned, rather than forced. Geodex is looking to ride out the storms, rather steer into them. With any luck, when the next big development decision comes to be made on Sisson Brook, the world economic situation may look a little brighter.

On the company’s other main project, Mount Pleasant, also in New Brunswick, Geodex is waiting on Teck’s decision. That isn’t due until April or May next year, as the current round of drilling won’t be completed until later this month, a report on that won’t be out until January, and then Teck is allowed several weeks grace to mull over its decision.

If Teck takes up the option to carry on participating in Mount Pleasant it will then have to stump up C$15 million to help move the project towards the feasibility stage. So far, says Christopher Anderson, the drilling is looking fairly positive, so there’s a reasonable possibility that Teck may be interested enough to keep going. On the other hand, Teck’s share price hasn’t performed that well of late, and it has recently been making noises about scaling back certain peripheral activities. We’ll have to see which way Teck jumps when it happens, but if Teck does walk away, at least Geodex will have the satisfaction of knowing that Mount Pleasant has had C$2.5 million spent on it, and is much further along the line than it otherwise would have been. And who knows, the world may look a much happier place by the spring of next year.

So, with developments at Mount Pleasant all set in motion, Geodex’s main operational focus has been on Mount Sisson. There, the company plans to spend around C$500,000 of its C$1.1 million cash pile working up the metallurgy. It already has over 150 million tonnes of measured, indicated and inferred resources booked at an average grade of 0.088% tungsten trioxide and 0.033% molybdenum, at a cut-off of 0.125% tungsten trioxide equivalent. The key issue now for potential suitors that might help Geodex take this project into development is metallurgy.

Once Geodex can demonstrate viable metallurgy then serious conversations can get underway with potential partners with a view to finding the likely C$360 million that will be needed for construction in a couple of years time. For now the original plans of Geodex exploration chief Jack Marr for the company to take Sisson Brook all the way into production on its own are on the shelf. But the project is still very much alive. Any building that goes above three stories needs tungsten, and as Christopher Anderson says pointedly: “You can’t even do any mining without tungsten”. Mining may be slowing down, but it’s not stopping completely. And a prudent companies like Geodex Minerals ought to be well placed when the upcoming tungsten supply deficit really starts to bite. At that stage, maybe the directors will even be able to put their salaries back up.

[stupidgame]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 35.810.479 von stupidgame am 03.11.08 13:47:44

Noch ein ziemlich bärischer Artikel, was den Stahlbereich betrifft, aus London.
Da sieht man das gerade Eisen und Stahl extrem zyklisch sind. Aber in welchem Tempo das Pendel in die andere Richtung schlägt ist schon trotzdem erstaunlich.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL373020620081…

[stupidgame]

Vale zieht seine Preiserhöhungs-Forderung für Eisenerz nach Asien zurück. (Alles andere hätte mich auch gewundert.)
In den chinesischen Häfen lagern derzeit Rekordmengen von fast 90 Mio.t Erz - das Äquivalent von 2 Monatsimporten.
Die Frachtraten für Erz von Brasilien nach China sind von über 108$/t auf ein 6-Jahrestief von 10,60$/t gefallen.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSHA3046262008…

MfG.
s.

[Klardoch]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 35.801.589 von stupidgame am 02.11.08 19:15:58

Guten Morgen,

im Zusammenhang mit Lithium könnte Orocobre (ORE.AX) ein langfristig lohnendes Investment sein, zumal sich ADY jüngst (auf unsägliche Weise)von Rincon getrennt hat, und ORE somit neben Galaxy Resources (GXY.AX) der einzige (mir bekannte) play am Markt ist.


Gruß,


klardoch

[stupidgame]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 35.799.254 von XIO am 02.11.08 14:39:16

@XIO!

Guter Tip mit dem Lithium. Sollte man sich mal genauer anschauen. Wenn das wirklich ein so kleiner Markt ist, dann wäre natürlich bei anziehender Nachfrage durch eine neue Technologie ein deutliches Anziehen des Preises drin.
Habe gerade zufällig gelesen, dass wohl einiges an Lithium-Vorräten in Bolivien liegt. Und das Land ist aktuell - naja, nicht gerade ein beliebtes Investitionsziel. Zumindest nicht der Angelsachsen.

Gruß
s.

[TomCole]

JUNIOR MINING
INCREASING VALUATION GAP
Canadian analysts pick likely junior mining acquisition targets
Big miners are biding their time with respect to takeover targets in the junior mining sector, but analysts believe a number of stocks are ripe for plucking.
Posted: Friday , 31 Oct 2008
OTTAWA (Reuters) -
S. http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page66?oid=71….

[XIO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 35.799.254 von XIO am 02.11.08 14:39:16

Elektromotoren aus Kassel
VW plant Großinvestition
http://www.n-tv.de/1046830.html

[XIO]

02.11.2008 14:27
Lithium für Akkus könnte knapp werden
http://www.heise.de/newsticker/Lithium-fuer-Akkus-koennte-kn…

[stupidgame]

Russland senkt zum wiederholten Male die Exportsteuer für Öl am Samstag. Einge haben wohl mehr erwartet. Aber für mich sieht der Schritt schon ganz o.k. aus. Weitere nächste nicht ausgeschlossen.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL122942320081…


Chart von Malka Oil, um upto Date zu bleiben. Mein Limit lag hier bei 1,32 oder 1,31 SEK. Tief war 1,30. Allerdings stammt dieses Kauflimit von mir von vor dem Bruch der 85$ beim Ölpreis. Ich halte jetzt auch Kurse von um die 1 oder drunter für nicht ausgeschlossen. Hängt von den Steuern, dem Gesamtmarkt, dem Ölpreis und der Firma ab. zur Erinnerung, Exit-Rate 2008 sollen 4.000 BOPD sein. Bin gespannt, ob sie das schaffen. Wer auf Nummer sicher gehen will wartet den Bruch des Abwärtstrends, seit Ende August, ab. Das wäre dann ein technisches Kaufsignal. Aktuelle voll verwässerte MK ist übrigens 59mEUR.

[stupidgame]

Auszug aus einem Reuters-Artikel von heute:

"The impact of the crisis on China has just started to appear as China has already seen a sharp slowdown in industrial profit growth and fiscal income," a senior Bank of China executive said in Shanghai on Saturday.

The global economy will likely enter recession next year with the United States, Europe and Japan posting negative growth, Executive Vice President Zhu Min told a financial conference.

"That will have a huge impact on China," he said.

Zhu also said currency volatility was expected to add further pressure on China's banks, which have enjoyed robust profits for years as the country boomed. Earnings growth is now slowing as the economy cools from the impact of the crisis.

"The uncertainties in the world's currency markets have exposed the Chinese banking sector to higher foreign asset risk," Zhu said.