Rohstoff-Explorer: Research oder Neuvorstellung (Seite 2780)

[recession]

Wenn Ölpreis fällt , dann logisch fällt Ölaktien. Wenn Ölpreis steigt und jetzt Markt ist sehr schwach warum sollte Ölaktien steigen? Krise betrifft Aktien Markt ueberall.

[TraderA]

Also mal im ernst, wir diskutieren hier oft über Ölexplorer und Produzenten, jedoch scheint der massive Ölpreisanstieg um 100% seit Sept. 2007 bei den meisten Ölaktien gar keine nennenswerten Kursseteigerungen zu verursachen.

Entweder es ist tatsächlich alles nur eine Blase und der Ölpreis fällt in den nächsten Monaten massiv, oder aber die Ölbranche steht vor einer kompletten Neubewertung.

Wenn man die Märkte so anschaut, scheint sich langsam aber kontinuierlich der Ölpreis bemerkbar zu machen, damals hätte ein solcher Ölprreisanstieg einen massiven Crash ausgelößt.

Entwerder spekulieren hier viele auf einen stark fallenden Ölpreis, oder hoffen auf Alternativenergien .

[tommy-hl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.415.256 von janwiencierz am 01.07.08 19:38:38

Hallo Jan,

danke für die Info. Gibt es eigentlich schon eine (vorläufige) Machbarkeitsstudie für das WME-Projekt oder zu wann ist die geplant?

Zu wann siehst Du den Produktionsbeginn und wie stufst Du das Länderrisiko ein?

Gruß
Tommy

[tommy-hl]

Gute Neuigkeiten für Kohle- und Uran-Minen: Die Welt hat strukturell zu wenig Energie ... Die Sicherung von Energiereserven wird zu einem politischem Faktor werden ...

July 02, 2008 by Alastair Ford

Good News For Coal And Uranium Miners: The World Is Structurally Short Energy, Says The Latest Research From Southern Cross

“The world is structurally short energy. The evidence is everywhere.” So says the latest research from Southern Cross Equities, Australia’s largest independent stockbroker and emerging investment advisory firm.

The principal driver is emerging markets, and specifically China. According to Southern Cross, industrialization around the world is “driving a structural increase in energy demand”, and that “against a backdrop of chronic supply shortages”.

The evidence isn’t hard to find either. The coking coal contract has settled up 300 per cent, while the some steaming coal contracts have increased by 200 per cent. Recent iron ore price settlements have showed an average 85 per cent price increase for the Australian producers.

The oil price has risen by 40 per cent this year, has tripled over the last two years, and is currently trading at record highs. In addition, LNG contract prices have also risen dramatically. Markets may not always be completely efficient, but in this instance the message is loud and extremely clear. Energy is in demand, and there’s a supply deficit. As a consequence, European electricity prices are expected to triple by 2015. However, France, where 70 per cent of electricity generation is from nuclear power, is an exception.

But the country that’s really short of energy is China. According to Southern Cross, the Chinese power sector is expected to be 18GW short in the peak summer period of July and August, due to low coal stockpiles and shutdowns triggered by the recent earthquake in Sichuan. As a result domestic Chinese prices for high quality coal have risen to US$131, and Chinese electricity prices are on the rise too. Meanwhile, over in South Africa, there’s increasing scepticism that state generator Eskom will be able to meet its stated aim of resuming power generation at full capacity by 2012.

And across the globe, national governments are being forced radically to reconsider energy policy. Southern Cross says that as a result of the trend towards increased energy costs and the corresponding constraints on supply: “We firmly believe the world is on the cusp of a uranium renaissance. There should be no doubt that the world has an irrational fear of nuclear power. The world will be forced to lose that irrational fear”.

It hasn’t happened yet though. Recently, state legislators in America put a three year moratorium on the development of uranium mines in the neighbourhood of the Grand Canyon. One slightly hysterical legislator, objecting against proposals from UK-listed VANE Minerals to develop properties in Northern Arizona, argued that the Grand Canyon and Stonehenge are comparable, and that no government would ever permit a mine to be built on Stonehenge.

Even though VANE wasn’t actually planning to dig up the Grand Canyon, but only to go to work on a previously well known uranium area, the objections won the day, and VANE has gone strangely quiet.

But the long-term trend is against such objections holding sway. The International Atomic Energy Agency forecasts that global electricity demand is likely to double by 2030, with the majority of the increase driven by the developing economies.

That’s because, in the words of Southern Cross, “both China and India are in the early stages of a multi-decade structural increase in energy intensity”. Both countries are short of the key fossil fuel energy sources, coal, gas and oil. They will suck in supply and drive up prices. But they will also increasingly have to look for alternatives.

Two issues then arise. The first is energy security, and the second is climate change. Southern Cross reckons that energy security will become the number one policy issue this century, and that as a consequence, listed alternative energy suppliers will attract significant price earnings premiums.

Southern Cross puts climate change as the second big policy issue of the century, which bodes well for uranium. A nuclear reactor has zero greenhouse gas emissions, and that consideration, among others, has driven some key political figures in Australia to urge a change of heart from the national government towards the creation of a nuclear industry.

In Europe, the nuclear option is already back on the agenda. The uranium will have to come from somewhere, so anyone feeling depressed about the recent fall in the spot price should take comfort from the long-term outlook. And for the short-term, look to coal.
source: minesite.com

[Antea600]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.415.333 von stupidgame am 01.07.08 19:46:46

Strike while the Iron's Hot
Bob Moriarty
Archives
July 2, 2008

I first wrote about Palladon in February of 2005 when the stock was $.435. Last December I wrote about them again but as a tax-loss selling candidate. The stock was $.19 a share. The stock has been a disappointment to me and all of my readers for three years now. When they closed a deal with a Chinese partner in April, I wrote about them again. The stock was $.37.

I'm not sure just how many times my readers expect me to hand them a steel of a deal on a sterling silver platter but here it is.

Before the deal with the Chinese, Palladon owned half of the Palladon Iron Corporation (PIC) that controlled the Comstock/Mountain Lion iron mine in Southwest Utah. The 50/50 partnership with Luxor on the iron mine never made sense since no one really controlled anything. So in early June, Palladon announced a deal to purchase the 50% ownership in PIC from Luxor Capital, their partner.

It was an aggressive deal. Palladon was offering to pay Luxor $65 million for their 50% of the project. Face it, times are tough and lots of juniors are having the devil's own time raising money. For Palladon to announce a $60 million financing was pretty ambitious. Much to my very great surprise and immense pleasure, on June 26th, Palladon announced the closing of the deal. Palladon now owns 100% of the Comstock/Iron Mountain iron mine. That's a steel of a deal.

Here is how the numbers work out. When Palladon agreed to the deal with the Chinese on April 1st, they agreed to deliver 2 million tons of about 55% iron starting around August 1st 2008. A month from now. Shipments to China will follow soon after that.

The ore is worth about $25-$30 a ton in PROFIT. I know that's a term that few investors in juniors will be familiar with but it means selling something for more than it costs you to produce. It's the money you pay tax on and then put in your pocket or reinvest in plant and equipment or give to your loyal shareholders. For the 12 months starting August 1st, the iron project should make something like $50-$60 million dollars PROFIT. Palladon paid $65 million to make an additional $25-$30 million dollars profit in the next year. But I'm probably understating the figure.

Rio Tinto just announced a 97% increase over 2007 for what they will get for their iron. Iron prices are fixed from April 1 to April 1 of the next year. Iron is hot and the industry believes there will be an additional major increase next April. The world contract price for iron is about $145 per ton and iron is going for $185 on the spot market. A $50 increase in the price for iron next year would be worth about $.50 a share in profit per Palladon share.

I've believed in Palladon for years and supported them when I was getting nothing but hot air from one particular director/former CEO. Luxor has been rewarded for their patience with a 200-300% profit on their investment and current investors should do a lot better.

In simple terms, Don Foot, President and CEO has done a brilliant job of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. And then he made it better. With 100% control of the project, he can run it like a real company.

One factor that I doubt many investors have taken into account is the potential for Palladon to upgrade both their facilities and their profit. They will be shipping 55% Fe a month from now at a profit of maybe $25-$30 a ton. They also will be installing concentrators that will bring the Fe content up to 67-68% that will double the profit. The cost of shipping is a major factor in the price of iron. When you ship 55% Fe, you are also shipping up to 17% dead weight in waste material of no value.

I'll climb way out on a limb and suggest to my nice readers that I figure at a price of $.82 today, Palladon is selling for a PE of 1-1.5 times 1 year hence earnings. That's a good deal. In addition, exercise of all the options and warrants on Palladon would bring in an additional $30 million dollars. So Palladon is sitting in the cat bird's seat financially.

We own a fair bit of shares bought in previous placements and on the open market. While Palladon has paid nothing for this piece, they are paid advertisers on 321gold. We are biased and you should take that into account. There is nothing confusing about the pricing of iron and the company is very good at communication so I encourage investors to do their own diligence. You get to make the money; you need to do some of your own work.

Palladon Ventures
PLL-V $.82 (June 30, 2008)
PLLVF-PK 205 million shares fully diluted (approximately)
Palladon Ventures website

Zur Info - wenn Ihr wollt kann ich Euch immer informieren, wenn es etwas interessantes gibt von Palladon.

Schönen Tag
Antea

[tommy-hl]

Globales Wachstum bleibt robust ... glaubt nicht den Miesmachern ...

Durchschnittliches erwartetes Wirtschafts-Wachstum weltweit 2008 = 3,9% und 2009 = 3,7% ..

June 30, 2008
Don’t Believe The Naysayers: Global Growth Remains Robust
By Rob Davies

Halfway through the year is a good time to take stock of where markets are. Particularly as we are now in the seventh year of this bull market. Those observers thinking that this is it, that there is no more upside may yet be disappointed. While there are plenty of risks for the commodity forecaster it seems that most of them remain to the upside.

Minews is greatly helped in reviewing the world by the timely arrival of the Société Générale Commodity Review for the second quarter of 2008. As ever it makes sense to understand the demand picture. This is always the most important piece of the equation, but is also the hardest to get right.

Contrary to what we are being told here in the UK, that our economic problems stem from a global economic collapse, the world economy is in rude health. Sure, it might only be growing at a rate of 3.9 per cent in 2008, a lot less than the 5.3 per cent of the last two years, but not bad all the same.

Next year is expected to be a tad slower at 3.7 per cent but even that is well over twice what the industrialised countries are expected to do this year and next. But then, they were only growing at half the rate of the world economy in the last two years as well, so the decline is not that large.

The real story remains with emerging markets. While this group are expected to experience slower growth, it’s still likely to come in at 6.8 per cent and 6.3 per cent for 2008 and 2009. Although that’s less than the 7.8 per cent and 8.2 per cent enjoyed in 2006 and 2007, it’s still good going and mostly driven by projected Chinese growth of 9.5 per cent and 8.5 per cent respectively.

So if demand is holding up well, which commodities are expected to do best? Well there is a simple answer to that and it’s coal.

When economists use word like “astonishing” and “prices heading for the stratosphere” to describe something as unglamorous as coal then it’s clear that this is a market that’s on fire. Strong world demand is set against the supply problems and lack of investment common to all commodities, but the case of coal is more extreme than most.

Moreover, the South African power crisis is reducing the amount of coal available for export through Richards Bay. Add to that the uncertainty over the future of Venezuelan supply and soaring freight rates it is easy to see how coal could average US$155 a tonne in Amsterdam this year.

In terms of base metals, aluminium remains the most favoured with an average price for 2008 now expected at US$3,000 a tonne. Copper has not succumbed to the gloom because supply simply cannot rise as fast as demand. A 2.5 per cent increase in supply this year is a lower rate of growth than that of the world economy.

That’s not a recipe for lower prices and the new forecast average for 2008 of US$7,900 a tonne should keep most miners happy. It’s a similar story with nickel. An increase of one per cent in mine production will prevent inventories rising even if demand is a bit lacklustre.

An average price for the year of US$25,700 a tonne is maybe less than the US$37,167 a tonne it averaged in 2007, but is still higher that the 2006 average of US$24,276 a tonne. Lead and zinc are the poor relations of the commodity world and not much is expected of them. But the encouraging news elsewhere should compensate for that.
source: minesite.com

[tommy-hl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.415.117 von Antea600 am 01.07.08 19:23:21

Hallo Antea,

danke für die Infos zu Palladon ...

Gruß
Tommy

[tommy-hl]

Altona Resources to list on ASX by year end

July 02, 2008
ALTONA Resources plans to list on the Australian Stock Exchange by the end of the year.

The miner is conducting a bankable feasibility study on the Arckaringa coal-to-liquid project in South Australia.

Altona, which is listed on London's Alternative Investment Market (AIM), has appointed Bell Potter Securities to advise on the Australian listing.

The company is investigating the viability of an integrated 10 million per year barrel coal-to-liquid plant with a 560 megawatt co-generation power facility in South Australia.

Coal-to-liquid technology is the process of converting coal into gas and synthetic fuels.

[Popeye82]

wrkmq,

weil Du mal über Lydian gesprochen hattest ...

www.minesite.com/nc/minews/singlenews/article/lydian-benefit…

[stupidgame]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.415.117 von Antea600 am 01.07.08 19:23:21

Danke für die Hintergrundinfos. Das hilft immer zum besseren Verständnis, da wir ja hier sicher die allermeisten Firmen nicht so gut kennen, wie jemand, der sich schon länger damit beschäftigt.
Für mich ist Palladon zum derzeitigen Zeitpunkt jetzt auf alle Fälle ein interessantes Invest.

Gruss
s.