Turkcell - Mobilfunk Türkei (Seite 5)

[R-BgO]

With Turkcell Dividend & Ownership Risk, Citi Stays Neutral But Raises Target

February 11, 2015, 12:52 P.M. ET

By Dimitra DeFotis


Turkey’s dominant telecom provider, Turkcell, has long had a complicated ownership structure that increasingly is dominated by the Turkish government.


And in light of a likely rise in capital spending, the stock’s valuation — 16.6 times estimated earnings for 2015 — looks high relative to other emerging market wireless providers, Citi Research argues in a report out Wednesday.

Citi kept its Neutral rating on the stock, but raised its ex-dividend price target to $12.12 from $10.38 on the prospect of growth from higher capital spending. But Citi’s target remains below the Turkcell ADR price. Citi also lowered its estimate for an expected special dividend, to $2.3 billion from more than $3 billion, saying there is risk to the lowered assumption.

Shares of Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri (TKC) are up nearly 2% in U.S. trading today to $14.57. The stock is up 12% over the past year, including a decline of 3.8% year to date. Some of this year’s selloff reflects weakness in the Turkish market and lira as central bankers attempt to tamp down inflation while under pressure to lower interest rates. The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR), down slightly today, is down 9% year to date, and up more than 11% over the past year.

Here’s more from the report, written by analysts Dalibor Vavruska, Dilya Ibragimova and Vibhor Kumar:

“We see a scenario of the Turkish government retaining its direct or indirect control in Turkcell as increasingly plausible. To support our view, over the past two years the government has taken control of Turkcell’s board; pressured a local private investor, Yildiz Holding, not to acquire an indirect stake; bailed out Turkcell’s most influential shareholder, Cukurova; and prepared legal grounds for the potential takeover of extended shareholder rights in April. …

… We see Turkcell entering a period of elevated Capex with even more depressed free cash flows, potentially combined with management and strategic uncertainty. We expect free cash flow margin to fall to 1-5% and FCF yield to 0-2%, in 2015-16 (fiscal), rising to 5-7% in 17-19 (fiscal), which is still low vs. peers. We see Turkcell at a strategic crossroads. It is unclear how it may respond to the emergence of a trend when content and fixed-line bundling may become more important than legacy coverage.”

Especially on LTE, Citi writes, “the government’s crucial role in setting policies and its control in Turkcell make the outlook uncertain.”

[annmar]

Beim Währungsverfall handelte es sich zum Jahreswechsel um einen Peak gerade wegen der Kapriolen des Herrn Erdogan. In letzter Zeit haben die politischen Turbulenzen aber scheinbar keinen so großen Einfluß mehr, da sich die Lira seit einigen Monaten deutlich erholt.
Ich halte die Aktie von Turkcell weiter für sehr attraktiv. Das Unternehmen sitzt auf reichlich Geld und sollten sich die Hauptaktionäre nach 2010 endlich mal wieder auf Dividendenzahlungen einigen, würde der Kurs sicher nach oben springen.
Wie ist Eure Meinung ?

[annmar]

Beim Währungsverfall handelte es sich zum Jahreswechsel um einen Peak gerade wegen der Kapriolen des Herrn Erdogan. In letzter Zeit haben die politischen Turbulenzen aber scheinbar keinen so großen Einfluß mehr, da sich die Lira seit einigen Monaten deutlich erholt.
Ich halte die Aktie von Turkcell weiter für sehr attraktiv. Das Unternehmen sitzt auf reichlich Geld und sollten sich die Hauptaktionäre nach 2010 endlich mal wieder auf Dividendenzahlungen einigen, würde der Kurs sicher nach oben springen.
Wie ist Eure Meinung ?

[DJHLS]

Die aktuelle Kursschwäche preist m. E. Noch nicht das volle Downside Potential ein, welches sich aus dem Währungsverfall ergibt. Turkcell erzielt seine Umsätze im Wesentliche
in türkischer Lira und dadurch sinkt der Gewinn und Wert in EUR bzw. USD.

Die Stützmaßnahme der türkischen Zentralbank, den Leitzins massiv zu erhöhen, bringt vielleicht Entlastung bei der Währung, dürfte aber die Refinanzierungskosten erhöhen.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.201.365 von annmar am 10.01.14 13:05:06

laut meiner unzuverlässigen Erinnerung hatte das was mit dem Stress mit Telia Sonera zu tun (s.u.)

habe mich aber lange nicht mehr mit dem Wert beschäftigt

[annmar]

Hat irgendjemand eine Einschätzung zu dem Wert ? Die machen doch recht ordentliche Gewinne. Aber wieso gibt seit einigen Jahren keine Dividende mehr ? Der Rücksetzer der türkischen Aktien wegen der Erdogan-Kapriolen verlockt doch jetzt zum Einstieg, oder was meint ihr ??

[R-BgO]

wurde augeübt, Bestand nun nur noch 1 Stück

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.058.254 von R-BgO am 19.04.12 08:21:24

Kurs seitdem verdoppelt...

[R-BgO]

seit Sommer 2010 gabs' nie wieder Divi


eine Meinung von SA:

Has The Tide Finally Turned For Turkcell?
January 5, 2012 | 7 comments | about: TKC, includes: AEBZY.PK, AMX, DTEGF.PK, EKIVY.PK, FTE, HOMJF.PK, MBT, TEF, TLSNY.PK, TUR, VIP, VOD

The stock market performance of Turkey's largest mobile phone operator (and arguably the best-known Turkish company to U.S. investors) Turkcell (TKC) has never been what anybody would call stable, but the last four years have been rough indeed. Although Turkcell looks promisingly cheap by many metrics, investors may not find as much value here as they hope.

Has The Bleeding Stopped?

The biggest problem for Turkcell has been competition; regulators in Turkey have wanted more competition in mobile phone services and have imposed mobile termination rate and interconnect fee cuts as a means of achieving that. Something similar has happened to America Movil (AMX) recently and Turkcell doesn't have the luxury of strong growth outside of Turkey to offset the damage. As if that weren't enough, rivals Vodafone (VOD) and Avea (mostly owned by Turk Telecom) have sought to build share by aggressive under-cutting Turkcell on pricing.

The net result? Turkcell now has between 52 and 55% share in the market – more than a 10% loss in about five years.

Unfortunately, Turkcell's international expansion plans have done little to help stem the damage. While the company operates in countries like Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, and Kazakhstan, these operations have not been major contributors to free cash flow growth and they have introduced more foreign currency risk.

Maybe, though, things are stabilizing. Turkish regulators seem happy with the present level of competition and have said they do not intend to revisit rates again soon. While price competition is still a threat, Turkcell's services are only about 30% more expensive than Vodafone's – down significantly from a 125% price premium in mid-2009. Moreover, the margins of Turkcell's rivals are about half theirs, so further price-based competition may not make so much economic sense.

Ownership Squabbles May Be Near The End

One of the biggest operational headaches for Turkcell has been the near-incessant squabbling amongst its largest owners. The ownership structure of Turkcell is a little convoluted, but the bottom line is that about 36% of the shares float freely, Sweden's TeliaSonera (TLSNY.PK) owns about 38%, and the rest (27% or so) is owned by Cukurova/Alfa.

The relationship between TeliaSonera and Cukurova/Alfa is such that if one claimed the sky was blue, the other would object on principle. This has drastically harmed the company's strategic planning (and cost it a talented CEO) and has even resulted in the suspension of the dividend because of a board-level deadlock. Now, though, the parties are awaiting a Privy Council ruling that should clear up matters. At a minimum, the Turkish government has expressed its displeasure with the ongoing dispute in a manner that seems evocative of when parents threaten “don't make me come back there”.

If and when this is resolved, not only will the dividend likely come back, but Turkcell should also be free to be more forward-thinking in its competitive strategy.

What Lies Ahead For Turkcell?

Within Turkey, Turkcell still has room to grow. Penetration is still somewhat low by European standards (about 90% versus 100%+) and usage (measured in minutes) has grown with economic improvements. Should Turkey stay on a growth track, Turkcell should be able to sell not only more minutes but more high-margin offerings like data as well. Turkcell could also benefit from improved government policy – right now taxes make up almost half of the cost of mobile phone ownership, or roughly double the rate in much of Europe.

There is also a slim chance that Turkcell could look to combine with Turk Telecom, the incumbent landline operator. This is a low-probability outcome, though, and doesn't necessarily offer the free cash flow harvesting potential that America Movil is hoping for with its similar acquisition of Telmex.

Turkcell may also have a brighter future outside of its own borders. Turkcell's ex-Turkey operations are conducted through Fintur, a joint venture that is majority-owned by TeliaSonera. Depending upon how the ownership battle resolves, perhaps Turkcell could acquire a majority stake in this enterprise. Even more promising, though, could be the expansion of operations into countries like Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Sudan – countries with highly-publicized problems, but long-term potential for a regional player.

Now The Bad News

It's not all going to be easy for Turkcell. For starters, there are not a lot of easy under-penetrated cellphone markets left in the world. What's more, while there are generally good business ties between Turkey and Russia, Turkcell would have a tough time pushing aside Mobile Telesystems (MBT) or VimpelCom (VIP). Likewise, Vodafone, France Telecom (FTE), Deutsche Telekom (DTEGF.PK), and Telefonica (TEF) have largely sown up Europe.

Potential Turkcell investors also need to realize that this stock is often traded as a proxy for Turkey itself. Although there is a liquid Turkey-specific ETF now [iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR)], it hasn't really changed the fact that this is almost the only option for investing in Turkey. Companies like Enka Insaat (EKIVY.PK), Sabanci (HOMJF.PK), and Anadolu Efes (AEBZY.PK) are all interesting investment prospects today, but only Anadolu is even remotely investable/tradeable for most ordinary investors.

Why does it matter if Turkcell is a proxy? Given the worries about inflation, secular/religious tension, and civil unrest in the southeast of Turkey, all of these could weigh on the shares without necessarily harming Turkcell's performance all that much.

The Bottom Line

Turkcell shares are undervalued today, but only just barely enough to be a reasonable buy candidate. I've personally held on in large part because I thought the ownership squabbles have hidden some of the true potential value and that better things could be in store upon resolution. Still, even my patience is fairly well frayed at this point.

Turkcell should be able to post mid-to-high single-digit growth through the middle of the decade, particularly if the company gets moving on overseas expansion. At the same time, the company has solid margins and should continue to deliver good free cash flow. Mature telecom service providers are not really the best way to exploit emerging market growth, but Turkcell is a stock where undervaluation and the potential for improved perceptions could lead to some solid capital gains.

[R-BgO]

Turkey’s Turkcell In Big Dispute with TeliaSonera of Scandinavia


A key official from Çukurova Holding — the only Turkish shareholder of Turkey’s largest GSM operator, Turkcell İletişim Hizmetleri A.Ş. — has said the company’s foreign partners, Scandinavian TeliaSonera and Russian Altimo, are actually trying to prevent Turkcell’s expansion into Africa as they seek to take over control of the company.

Speaking to Today’s Zaman on condition of anonymity, the official argued that the two foreign companies have embarked on a persistent campaign “based on lies” to reshape the company’s board of directors so as to impact ownership of Turkcell and, subsequently, its decision-making mechanisms. “We were going to purchase GSM operating licenses in 24 African nations and let the company fly. The [Turkish exporters] companies are going there. Turkish Airlines [THY] is going to grow on the continent. And we were going to take the mobile phone operating business.

We were going to become number one in Africa. Even the worth of the services we would outsource was going to be millions of dollars. They simply do not want us to enter Africa,” the official said.

TeliaSonera has a 37.1 percent stake as the main shareholder of Turkcell İletişim Hizmetleri A.Ş., but it cannot control the company because a special purpose company, Turkcell Holding A.Ş., holds 51 percent of Turkcell İletişim. A total of 53 percent of Turkcell Holding is owned by a Çukurova-Altimo partnership and 47 percent by TeliaSonera. Çukurova and Altimo each hold about 13 percent of Turkcell İletişim.

Presently, Turkcell İletişim’s board has seven members, and all three partners are represented by two members each on the board of directors. Mehmet Emin Karamehmet, the founder of Turkcell İletişim and chairman of Çukurova, stepped down in February of last year as Turkcell İletişim’s board chairman after almost 17 years and was replaced by Colin Williams, who has served as an independent board member since May 2006.

What TeliaSonera and Altimo are reportedly trying to do is increase the number of members on the company’s board of directors from seven to nine and the number of independent members there from one to three. Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government, however, seems to have sided with preserving the present member distribution on the board of directors of the country’s largest mobile phone operator.

In October of last year, the company’s non-Turkish partners were disappointed as a related decision could not be made because commissioners from the Industry and Trade Ministry did not participate in a congress. It is now certain that the upcoming congress on April 21 will host heated debates and tactical wars between the three partners as to who will have the ultimate say over the company’s future plans.

Tricks over independent members

The Çukurova Holding official who spoke to Today’s Zaman drew attention to another dimension of the present board members’ dispute. He says the company’s foreign partners are seeking to take control of the company through people who they say will be independent. “Julian Horn-Smith, whom they proposed as an independent member, is also on the board of directors of our competitor Vodafone. He is also a paid consultant at Altimo’s umbrella holding Alfa. How on the earth is he independent? Can such a person be accepted? They lie without being ashamed of it,” Today’s Zaman’s source said.

When asked why Turkcell’s foreign partners are also striving to replace Williams with someone else, the same official said: “We are curious about that, too. They would [like to] sue the guy. He brought the general congress agenda to be discussed by the board three times; yet, the members did not make any request to increase their number of colleagues. What else should Williams do?”

On the particular issue of the claim raised by TeliaSonera’s CEO Lars Nyberg that Çukurova sold the same shares to both TeliaSonera and Altimo, the official insisted that this claim is untrue and that those shares were sold only to Altimo and that TeliaSonera did not make any payment for them. “In order for Nyberg to say ‘they sold,’ he also has to explain how much he paid for those shares. Did you sign the deal? No. We went [to offer those shares to TeliaSonera] twice before we sold them to the Russians. We told them that we hadn’t yet taken any money from the Russians and that they [the TeliaSonera] could buy those shares. They did not respond to us within 60 days and we sold those shares to the Russians because we had to [under those circumstances.] From our point of view, they are doing 50 or more tricks at the same time. We are fed up with all this,” the official said.

The same official also raised allegations of corruption against TeliaSonera in remarks to Today’s Zaman. He claimed that TeliaSonera has embezzled millions of dollars of Turkcell’s revenue, causing financial losses for its shareholders in Turkey and the US since the company’s shares are traded on both the İstanbul Stock Exchange (İMKB) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

In his explanation of the allegation, the Scandinavian joint venture caused Kcell — a Kazakh mobile phone operator owned by Fintur Holdings, a TeliaSonera-Turkcell partnership company — to make less profit than it could have made otherwise by forging fake bills that stated the Kazakh company had purchased services from the Swedish telecommunications giant Ericsson, though in fact it did not. “Every time we ask them why they did not pay any dividends to shareholders, they say the company had outstanding debts. Now we understand how its money used to evaporate. They embezzled the very money we and small shareholders were entitled to. We will bring this up at the [April 21] congress,” the official said.

15 April 2011