Glencore International AG Europas größter Börsengang (Seite 57)
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ISIN: JE00B4T3BW64 · WKN: A1JAGV
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Letzter Kurs 24.04.24 Lang & Schwarz
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16.04.24 · dpa-AFX Analysen |
08.04.24 · dpa-AFX |
02.04.24 · kapitalerhoehungen.de |
31.03.24 · wallstreetONLINE Redaktion |
Werte aus der Branche Rohstoffe
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 0,7950 | +30,33 | |
| 55,80 | +15,41 | |
| 0,7999 | +14,27 | |
| 11,250 | +12,73 | |
| 0,5500 | +10,00 |
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 0,7145 | -8,92 | |
| 2,1800 | -9,17 | |
| 186,20 | -10,48 | |
| 4,2300 | -17,86 | |
| 46,74 | -98,00 |
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 51.109.062 von lexor am 17.11.15 14:41:32Glencore taucht wieder ab...
Gründe? Geht's mit der Umschuldung voran?
Gründe? Geht's mit der Umschuldung voran?
Weiss eigentlich jemand ob man sich den Short Interest auch an der LSE ansehen kann? Würde mich wundern, schätze da sind mehr als 50% des Free Floats short aktuell.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 51.101.910 von lexor am 16.11.15 17:31:03Ach was.... ich hatte die 1/2 Stückzahl bei 1,75 Euro verkauft...
Da ich bei 0.98 Euro nach gefasst hatte.
Natürlich muss man das Risiko begrenzen aber doch wohl besser dann wenn der Kurs was hergibt.
Hier wird es immer wieder Attacken von den Credit Default Swaps geben.
Und je nach Börsenstimmung.
Da ich bei 0.98 Euro nach gefasst hatte.
Natürlich muss man das Risiko begrenzen aber doch wohl besser dann wenn der Kurs was hergibt.
Hier wird es immer wieder Attacken von den Credit Default Swaps geben.
Und je nach Börsenstimmung.
Nicht vergessen Verluste zu begrenzen.
Der Retest des Tiefs von 66p dürfte nur noch eine Frage der Zeit sein beim aktuellen Absturz des Kupfer/Zinkpreises. Die Menschenrechtsorganisationen dürften den Schampus schon mal kalt gestellt haben. So hat der Rohstoffverfall auch was gutes wenn die Firma mit dem meisten Blut an den Händen untergeht. Gier hat sie einfach Blind gemacht und irgendwann ist es dann einfach zu spät.
Der Retest des Tiefs von 66p dürfte nur noch eine Frage der Zeit sein beim aktuellen Absturz des Kupfer/Zinkpreises. Die Menschenrechtsorganisationen dürften den Schampus schon mal kalt gestellt haben. So hat der Rohstoffverfall auch was gutes wenn die Firma mit dem meisten Blut an den Händen untergeht. Gier hat sie einfach Blind gemacht und irgendwann ist es dann einfach zu spät.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 51.074.088 von NickelChrome am 12.11.15 16:54:48
Ich hefte mich mal an Deine Fersen und bin mit dabei.
Zitat von NickelChrome: Hervorragender Risk On / Risk off Trade....
Heute wieder zu 1.34 Euro gekauft nach einem Verkauf 40 Cents teurer vor einer Woche.
Ich hefte mich mal an Deine Fersen und bin mit dabei.
Trading Spotlight
Vorsicht, die Bonds sind wieder am Rutschen. Ein zweites Mal werden sie nicht die Kurse hochpushen können, beim nächsten Mal werden sicherlich die Banken nervös und ziehen ihre kurzfristigen Kredite raus.
Hervorragender Risk On / Risk off Trade....
Heute wieder zu 1.34 Euro gekauft nach einem Verkauf 40 Cents teurer vor einer Woche.
Heute wieder zu 1.34 Euro gekauft nach einem Verkauf 40 Cents teurer vor einer Woche.
Glencore ist im freien Fall und manche sehen Paralellen zu Enron, deshalb nennt man die Firma auch GLENRON...die Schulden sind viel zu hoch und fallende Rohstoffpreise werden denen bald das Genick brechen. Auch Abglo American faellt heute 10%
Glencore’s (LSE: GLEN) late-September $2.5bn share placing hardly took the market by surprise. Many analysts had been expecting a rights issue for some time. Although, whether this cash call will be Glencore’s last is a question that’s still up for debate.
Indeed, despite the $2.5bn placing, conducted as part of the group’s $10bn debt reduction package, Glencore’s debt pile still amounts to more than $25bn. Moreover, the black-box nature of Glencore’s highly leveraged trading business means that it’s difficult for City analysts to accurately assess the company’s debt exposure.
For example, analysts at Macquarie believe that the price of the three key commodities Glencore producers (coal, copper and nickel) would only have to increase by a total of 8% to rebalance the company’s balance sheet. That said, if the price of these commodities fell 8%, Glencore could be forced into conducting anther share placing.
Meanwhile, analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that Glencore’s shares could rally to 217p within six months if commodity prices improve. If not, Glencore’s shares could fall to 17p. Analysts at Investec note that if commodity prices remain at present levels for an extended period, Glencore’s shares could fall to zero over the long term. Although, once again this thesis is invalid if prices recover.
So it really is difficult to tell if Glencore’s troubles are over or not.
Back against the wall
After Glencore’s cash call, many City analysts have started to speculate that Anglo American (LSE: AAL) will be the next miner to ask shareholders to help pay down debt. The company is seeking to raise $3bn by selling non-core assets and cutting jobs to trim costs.
By offloading its tarmac business, two copper mines and three gold mines the company has been able to raise just under $2.5bn leaving it with net debt of $11.5bn.
Anglo has a long-term net debt target of $10bn to $12bn. the company reported a $3bn loss for the first half of the year and the dividend is currently costing the group more than $1bn per annum.
If commodity prices fall further, Anglo’s hand could be forced. Some City analysts are already predicting that Anglo will conduct a rights issue to lower its debt and strengthen the balance sheet to help it navigate through the commodity downturn.
Mining cash
Like Anglo, Vedanta Resources (LSE: VED) is also struggling to reduce the pile of debt it has built up over the past six years. Reported net debt is just over $8bn, 9.4 times estimated 2016 earnings before interest tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). A debt to EBITDA ratio of more than two times is usually considered excessive.
Vedanta has already axed its interim dividend payout as it looks to preserve cash although, the group had previously promised to protect the dividend at all costs. Management will consider whether to payout a final dividend alongside full-year results.
To try and strengthen its balance sheet, Vedanta is trying to buy out the 40% of Cairn India, its oil subsidiary, that Vedanta Ltd. doesn’t already own. The merger will give Vedanta access to Cairn’s cash hoard, which can then be used to pay off debt. But it’s proving difficult to convince Cairn’s shareholders to sell.
A safer bet
If you're not comfortable with the volatile returns and high level of risk that comes with investing in the mining sector, a more defensive play such Unilever might be a better pick. For example, over the past three years Unilever has outperformed Glencore by approximately 35% per annum including dividends.
Now, you may be thinking that I've just cherry-picked Unilever because the company's returns are better than average, but that's not the case.
Unilever has actually been picked by the Motley Fool's top analysts as one of the top five shares you should hold in your investment portfolio, due to the company's defensive nature and hefty dividend payout.
And if you would like to uncover the other four stocks we believe should have a place in your investment portfolio, download our free report today!
Glencore’s (LSE: GLEN) late-September $2.5bn share placing hardly took the market by surprise. Many analysts had been expecting a rights issue for some time. Although, whether this cash call will be Glencore’s last is a question that’s still up for debate.
Indeed, despite the $2.5bn placing, conducted as part of the group’s $10bn debt reduction package, Glencore’s debt pile still amounts to more than $25bn. Moreover, the black-box nature of Glencore’s highly leveraged trading business means that it’s difficult for City analysts to accurately assess the company’s debt exposure.
For example, analysts at Macquarie believe that the price of the three key commodities Glencore producers (coal, copper and nickel) would only have to increase by a total of 8% to rebalance the company’s balance sheet. That said, if the price of these commodities fell 8%, Glencore could be forced into conducting anther share placing.
Meanwhile, analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that Glencore’s shares could rally to 217p within six months if commodity prices improve. If not, Glencore’s shares could fall to 17p. Analysts at Investec note that if commodity prices remain at present levels for an extended period, Glencore’s shares could fall to zero over the long term. Although, once again this thesis is invalid if prices recover.
So it really is difficult to tell if Glencore’s troubles are over or not.
Back against the wall
After Glencore’s cash call, many City analysts have started to speculate that Anglo American (LSE: AAL) will be the next miner to ask shareholders to help pay down debt. The company is seeking to raise $3bn by selling non-core assets and cutting jobs to trim costs.
By offloading its tarmac business, two copper mines and three gold mines the company has been able to raise just under $2.5bn leaving it with net debt of $11.5bn.
Anglo has a long-term net debt target of $10bn to $12bn. the company reported a $3bn loss for the first half of the year and the dividend is currently costing the group more than $1bn per annum.
If commodity prices fall further, Anglo’s hand could be forced. Some City analysts are already predicting that Anglo will conduct a rights issue to lower its debt and strengthen the balance sheet to help it navigate through the commodity downturn.
Mining cash
Like Anglo, Vedanta Resources (LSE: VED) is also struggling to reduce the pile of debt it has built up over the past six years. Reported net debt is just over $8bn, 9.4 times estimated 2016 earnings before interest tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). A debt to EBITDA ratio of more than two times is usually considered excessive.
Vedanta has already axed its interim dividend payout as it looks to preserve cash although, the group had previously promised to protect the dividend at all costs. Management will consider whether to payout a final dividend alongside full-year results.
To try and strengthen its balance sheet, Vedanta is trying to buy out the 40% of Cairn India, its oil subsidiary, that Vedanta Ltd. doesn’t already own. The merger will give Vedanta access to Cairn’s cash hoard, which can then be used to pay off debt. But it’s proving difficult to convince Cairn’s shareholders to sell.
A safer bet
If you're not comfortable with the volatile returns and high level of risk that comes with investing in the mining sector, a more defensive play such Unilever might be a better pick. For example, over the past three years Unilever has outperformed Glencore by approximately 35% per annum including dividends.
Now, you may be thinking that I've just cherry-picked Unilever because the company's returns are better than average, but that's not the case.
Unilever has actually been picked by the Motley Fool's top analysts as one of the top five shares you should hold in your investment portfolio, due to the company's defensive nature and hefty dividend payout.
And if you would like to uncover the other four stocks we believe should have a place in your investment portfolio, download our free report today!
It will be very interesting to see Glencore Q3 results.
a) Industrial performance: I am quite confident that their industrial performance will be in "red" in terms of EBIT. Taking into account falling copper, zinc and nickel prices, the EBITDA of industiral operations in metal sector will significiantly reduce, certanly belov 1.000 mio. EUR, probably will be 700 - 800 mio. EUR and negative EBIT. Their energy production would also result in much lower EBITDA (weak coal prices) which would probably be in range 450 - 500 mio. EUR, and certanly with negative EBIT. It is easier to prognose EBITDA than EBIT because of uncertancies subject to impairment of assets.
My prognose EBITDA (production of commodities): 1.150 - 1.300 mio EUR
My prognose EBIT (assumption of impairment charges similar to ones in previous quarters): - 300 to - 400 mio. EUR
b) Trading operations: Estimation of EBIT reslult subject to trading operations is harder to estimate and prognose. It depends on fact how good traders aticipate future prices of commodities.
My EBIT prognose: in range from 300 to 600 mio. EUR
Estimated EBIT of all company's operations in Q 3 is from - 100 to 300 mio. EUR.
Disclaimer: These are only my estimations, do not use it as investment recommentadion.
a) Industrial performance: I am quite confident that their industrial performance will be in "red" in terms of EBIT. Taking into account falling copper, zinc and nickel prices, the EBITDA of industiral operations in metal sector will significiantly reduce, certanly belov 1.000 mio. EUR, probably will be 700 - 800 mio. EUR and negative EBIT. Their energy production would also result in much lower EBITDA (weak coal prices) which would probably be in range 450 - 500 mio. EUR, and certanly with negative EBIT. It is easier to prognose EBITDA than EBIT because of uncertancies subject to impairment of assets.
My prognose EBITDA (production of commodities): 1.150 - 1.300 mio EUR
My prognose EBIT (assumption of impairment charges similar to ones in previous quarters): - 300 to - 400 mio. EUR
b) Trading operations: Estimation of EBIT reslult subject to trading operations is harder to estimate and prognose. It depends on fact how good traders aticipate future prices of commodities.
My EBIT prognose: in range from 300 to 600 mio. EUR
Estimated EBIT of all company's operations in Q 3 is from - 100 to 300 mio. EUR.
Disclaimer: These are only my estimations, do not use it as investment recommentadion.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.847.558 von kainza am 14.10.15 15:34:31
Keine Ahnung was genau uns der User damit sagen will....
zwei Grundsätzliche Dinge wahrscheinlich:
a) investiere nicht in Dinge von denen du keine Ahnung hast/bzw. im Grunde nicht überzeugt bist.
b) nicht ins fallende Messer greifen.
...nix neues also.
Zitat von kainza: http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/8018808-glencore-investieren-gelernt
Keine Ahnung was genau uns der User damit sagen will....
zwei Grundsätzliche Dinge wahrscheinlich:
a) investiere nicht in Dinge von denen du keine Ahnung hast/bzw. im Grunde nicht überzeugt bist.
b) nicht ins fallende Messer greifen.
...nix neues also.
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