Timberline Resources: Take-over Barrick Gold möglich ?? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite
eröffnet am 03.05.11 14:08:08 von
neuester Beitrag 10.05.11 11:19:19 von
neuester Beitrag 10.05.11 11:19:19 von
Beiträge: 8
ID: 1.165.910
ID: 1.165.910
Aufrufe heute: 0
Gesamt: 604
Gesamt: 604
Aktive User: 0
ISIN: US8871332057 · WKN: A12ECZ · Symbol: TLRS
0,0430
USD
0,00 %
0,0000 USD
Letzter Kurs 02:10:00 Nasdaq OTC
Neuigkeiten
19.12.23 · Accesswire  |
15.11.23 · Accesswire |
31.08.23 · Accesswire |
17.08.23 · Accesswire |
12.07.23 · Accesswire |
Werte aus der Branche Rohstoffe
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 45,20 | +14,14 | |
| 2,4600 | +11,82 | |
| 2,4000 | +9,89 | |
| 15.700,00 | +9,79 | |
| 5,1500 | +8,65 |
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 1,2000 | -10,45 | |
| 0,6360 | -10,67 | |
| 1,0500 | -12,50 | |
| 28,53 | -14,71 | |
| 47,96 | -97,97 |
Feedback
Ist eine TLR Übernahme durch Barrick möglich ?
Dafür sprechen:
- Chartverlauf der letzten Monate
(Decklung bei ca. 1,40 US trotz hervorragendem Marktumfeld
+ Nachrichtenlage / Bonanza-Bohregebnisse)
- Niedrige MKPT von TLR
- Nur 3 % der Aktien in festen Händen
- bald förderbare Goldverkommen (Butte Higlands Anfang 2012)
- Weitere Interessante Projekte (South Eureka, NV)
- Joint Venture mit Barrick in der Vergangenheit...
(The ICBM Joint Venture Project (Timberline/Barrick) is located in the Battle Mountain Mining District, Lander County, Nevada.)
- TLR liegt schon teilweise in unmittelbarer Nachbarschaft zu Barrick (The South Eureka Property is located on the south end of Nevada's Battle Mountain / Eureka Trend, just four miles from Barrick Gold's two-million ounce Archimedes / Ruby Hill mine)
- Bei einem Kaufkurs von 2 US je Aktie würde Barrick ca. den 5-10 fachen Gegenwert erhalten.
Interessante Links:
http://timberline-resources.com/Timberline%2010-K%20for%20pr…
http://www.timberline-resources.com/main.php?page=163
Dagegen sprechen ggf.:
- TLR / Goldvorkommen zu klein ?
- Gegenwert für Barrick zu niedrig ?
__________________________________________________
Selbst wenn es nicht zu einer Übernahme durch Barrick kommen sollte handelt es sich bei Timberline um eine hoch interessanten Wert.
Anfang 2012 soll Butte Highlands in Produktion gehen,
mit jährlich 60.000 Unzen und einer Lebenszeit von ca. 10 Jahren.
Das Mangement selbst sprach von einem insgesamten Goldvorkommen in Höhe von 750 Mio Unzen und das war VOR Vermeldung der letzen Bonanza-Grades von bis zu 946g/t Au !
Gruß
massel
Dafür sprechen:
- Chartverlauf der letzten Monate
(Decklung bei ca. 1,40 US trotz hervorragendem Marktumfeld
+ Nachrichtenlage / Bonanza-Bohregebnisse)
- Niedrige MKPT von TLR
- Nur 3 % der Aktien in festen Händen
- bald förderbare Goldverkommen (Butte Higlands Anfang 2012)
- Weitere Interessante Projekte (South Eureka, NV)
- Joint Venture mit Barrick in der Vergangenheit...
(The ICBM Joint Venture Project (Timberline/Barrick) is located in the Battle Mountain Mining District, Lander County, Nevada.)
- TLR liegt schon teilweise in unmittelbarer Nachbarschaft zu Barrick (The South Eureka Property is located on the south end of Nevada's Battle Mountain / Eureka Trend, just four miles from Barrick Gold's two-million ounce Archimedes / Ruby Hill mine)
- Bei einem Kaufkurs von 2 US je Aktie würde Barrick ca. den 5-10 fachen Gegenwert erhalten.
Interessante Links:
http://timberline-resources.com/Timberline%2010-K%20for%20pr…
http://www.timberline-resources.com/main.php?page=163
Dagegen sprechen ggf.:
- TLR / Goldvorkommen zu klein ?
- Gegenwert für Barrick zu niedrig ?
__________________________________________________
Selbst wenn es nicht zu einer Übernahme durch Barrick kommen sollte handelt es sich bei Timberline um eine hoch interessanten Wert.
Anfang 2012 soll Butte Highlands in Produktion gehen,
mit jährlich 60.000 Unzen und einer Lebenszeit von ca. 10 Jahren.
Das Mangement selbst sprach von einem insgesamten Goldvorkommen in Höhe von 750 Mio Unzen und das war VOR Vermeldung der letzen Bonanza-Grades von bis zu 946g/t Au !
Gruß
massel
Heijei jei.... oder doch eher Newmont... ??
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/timberline/578602
Timberline
April 19, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: TLR , RBY , GLD
This is much less serious than most of my other blog posts, but thought it would be worth sharing. It is the same as my pitch for TLR.
I actually ran across this stock when looking for timber resources and I am incredibly glad the similarities in name led me to this stock.
In short I am vey impressed with this company. Like most exploration companies, you are going to take a big risk whenever you invest with real money. However, seeing the progress the company has made towards actual production, the size of the deposits, the financial structure, and the strength of gold prices lead me to believe that this might be THE BEST PERFORMING STOCK OVER THE NEXT YEAR. I am banking on production happening in 2012Q1 - otherwise this is all bunk.
This company reminds me very much of Transmeridian (now bankrupt) with deposits and anonymity. You can check out my analysis on them - which ended up being very accurate. The difference between Transmeridian and TLR is that Timberline is not financing the drilling for their own mine - their joint partner SMD is paying for ALL costs to bring the mine to production and after TLR will split income 20/80 with SMD until the drilling costs are split evenly among both parties after which income will be split 50/50.
As an added bonus, Timberline owns subsidiary Timberline drilling. While small, this is a drilling company with real expertise. They are currently contracted by Newmont mining - one of the biggest gold producers in the world and recent buyer of Frontier gold. Timberline is on Newmont's radar.
Looking at the Frontier Gold acquisition, I think we are going to see even more acquisitions in the ultrasmall gold exploration companies.
Quickly:
Estimated reserves - 750,000 oz (up to 1M oz)
Cost of production - $500/oz
Current price of gold - $1480
Net profit per ounce - ~$1000
Production expectancy - 70,000oz/year
Mine life expectancy - 10 years
Doing a back of the envelope calculation, we can see that if we take the value of just the Butte mine and assume a 90% chance of meeting production within a year, we get 750,000*1000*.5*.9=337,000,000
If we want a 15% return for risk adjusted return (absent of gold price change), we get 337M/1.15^10=84M, implying IT WOULD HAVE TO RISE 60% JUST TO REACH A CURRENT FAIR VALUE. The current price indicates a risk adjusted return to be over 20% for investment. While this 20% may be a fair risk assessment, the company's future is going to be decided much sooner than 10 years. Your capital will either disappear or multiply depending on the success of this mine. The company should pop once the begin production or slowly taper to bankruptcy.
Assuming that they can meet their production target of 70,000oz/year and maintain a reasonable PE of 10 and can develop other fields to MEET 70,000oz/year as the butte mine declines, then we are looking at
70,000oz*1000*.5=35,000,000/year*10PE=350M market cap. If they can demonstrate they can get to 70,000,000oz in the first year, WE ARE LOOKING AT A 7BAGGER IN 18MONTHS.
Using the fronteer gold gold buyout valuation, the field should have a current value of 428M, implying a 214M value for TLR, a 4 bagger from here. However, the timberline field is closer to production and deserves a bigger premium.
For another metric, at a 55M market cap and 750,000oz minimum of reserves, TLR is trading at $146/oz! (when corrected for the 50%ownership. Compare that to RBY trading at $275/oz, who is making major headlines of their own. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/01/21/rising-s...… The top companies are valued at $600/oz
Anyway that you slice it, I think that TLR is MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED and gives a large enough margin of error to more than cover either mining production being pushed back or gold prices declining. As with any small company management has more influence than I would like, but these guys have enough skin in the game (22% insider ownership) that I think that everyone's interests are aligned.
Side note: my big worry with this and all ultra small companies is that they agree to an undervalued buyout in exchange for high salaries and cushy jobs at the takeover company. Not something to necessarily deter you, but always worth noting.
---------------------
gruß
massel
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/timberline/578602
Timberline
April 19, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: TLR , RBY , GLD
This is much less serious than most of my other blog posts, but thought it would be worth sharing. It is the same as my pitch for TLR.
I actually ran across this stock when looking for timber resources and I am incredibly glad the similarities in name led me to this stock.
In short I am vey impressed with this company. Like most exploration companies, you are going to take a big risk whenever you invest with real money. However, seeing the progress the company has made towards actual production, the size of the deposits, the financial structure, and the strength of gold prices lead me to believe that this might be THE BEST PERFORMING STOCK OVER THE NEXT YEAR. I am banking on production happening in 2012Q1 - otherwise this is all bunk.
This company reminds me very much of Transmeridian (now bankrupt) with deposits and anonymity. You can check out my analysis on them - which ended up being very accurate. The difference between Transmeridian and TLR is that Timberline is not financing the drilling for their own mine - their joint partner SMD is paying for ALL costs to bring the mine to production and after TLR will split income 20/80 with SMD until the drilling costs are split evenly among both parties after which income will be split 50/50.
As an added bonus, Timberline owns subsidiary Timberline drilling. While small, this is a drilling company with real expertise. They are currently contracted by Newmont mining - one of the biggest gold producers in the world and recent buyer of Frontier gold. Timberline is on Newmont's radar.
Looking at the Frontier Gold acquisition, I think we are going to see even more acquisitions in the ultrasmall gold exploration companies.
Quickly:
Estimated reserves - 750,000 oz (up to 1M oz)
Cost of production - $500/oz
Current price of gold - $1480
Net profit per ounce - ~$1000
Production expectancy - 70,000oz/year
Mine life expectancy - 10 years
Doing a back of the envelope calculation, we can see that if we take the value of just the Butte mine and assume a 90% chance of meeting production within a year, we get 750,000*1000*.5*.9=337,000,000
If we want a 15% return for risk adjusted return (absent of gold price change), we get 337M/1.15^10=84M, implying IT WOULD HAVE TO RISE 60% JUST TO REACH A CURRENT FAIR VALUE. The current price indicates a risk adjusted return to be over 20% for investment. While this 20% may be a fair risk assessment, the company's future is going to be decided much sooner than 10 years. Your capital will either disappear or multiply depending on the success of this mine. The company should pop once the begin production or slowly taper to bankruptcy.
Assuming that they can meet their production target of 70,000oz/year and maintain a reasonable PE of 10 and can develop other fields to MEET 70,000oz/year as the butte mine declines, then we are looking at
70,000oz*1000*.5=35,000,000/year*10PE=350M market cap. If they can demonstrate they can get to 70,000,000oz in the first year, WE ARE LOOKING AT A 7BAGGER IN 18MONTHS.
Using the fronteer gold gold buyout valuation, the field should have a current value of 428M, implying a 214M value for TLR, a 4 bagger from here. However, the timberline field is closer to production and deserves a bigger premium.
For another metric, at a 55M market cap and 750,000oz minimum of reserves, TLR is trading at $146/oz! (when corrected for the 50%ownership. Compare that to RBY trading at $275/oz, who is making major headlines of their own. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/01/21/rising-s...… The top companies are valued at $600/oz
Anyway that you slice it, I think that TLR is MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED and gives a large enough margin of error to more than cover either mining production being pushed back or gold prices declining. As with any small company management has more influence than I would like, but these guys have enough skin in the game (22% insider ownership) that I think that everyone's interests are aligned.
Side note: my big worry with this and all ultra small companies is that they agree to an undervalued buyout in exchange for high salaries and cushy jobs at the takeover company. Not something to necessarily deter you, but always worth noting.
---------------------
gruß
massel
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 41.446.737 von Popeye82 am 03.05.11 19:26:41schon längst passiert
-------
1.) Barrick als auch Newmont sind bereits Kunden von
Timberline´s Drilling Company, wobei Newmont der größte Kunde
von Timberline Drilling ist !
2.) Timberline´s South Eureka Project liegt nut 4 Meilen von
Barricks Ruby-Hill Mine entfernt, die bereits 2001 von Barrick (Homestake Deal)
gekauft wurde.
Stellt sich für mich die Frage WIE LANGE noch Ruby-Hill produzieren ,
die Goldreserven dort noch reichen und ob Timberlines Eureka Project
nicht die perfeke Ergänzung für Barrick wäre, hinsichtlich "Verlängerung der Goldförderung" in diesem Gebiet...
Für Newmont könnte es doch interresant sein Barrick mal in die Suppe zu spucken
und direkter Nachbar von Barrick zu werden und noch gleichzeitig die Kosten
fürs Drilling zu senken (und mehr Flexiblität) indem man nicht nur einen Fastprozenten
kauft sondern eine Drilling-Firma gleich mit...
So oder so sind interresante Ansätze vorhanden.....
Gruß
massel
-------
1.) Barrick als auch Newmont sind bereits Kunden von
Timberline´s Drilling Company, wobei Newmont der größte Kunde
von Timberline Drilling ist !
2.) Timberline´s South Eureka Project liegt nut 4 Meilen von
Barricks Ruby-Hill Mine entfernt, die bereits 2001 von Barrick (Homestake Deal)
gekauft wurde.
Stellt sich für mich die Frage WIE LANGE noch Ruby-Hill produzieren ,
die Goldreserven dort noch reichen und ob Timberlines Eureka Project
nicht die perfeke Ergänzung für Barrick wäre, hinsichtlich "Verlängerung der Goldförderung" in diesem Gebiet...
Für Newmont könnte es doch interresant sein Barrick mal in die Suppe zu spucken
und direkter Nachbar von Barrick zu werden und noch gleichzeitig die Kosten
fürs Drilling zu senken (und mehr Flexiblität) indem man nicht nur einen Fastprozenten
kauft sondern eine Drilling-Firma gleich mit...
So oder so sind interresante Ansätze vorhanden.....
Gruß
massel
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 41.448.018 von Massel am 03.05.11 23:13:29
Da Du meine genialen between-the-lines-Talente nicht registriert hast -ich sprach von No. 3.
Gruß
P.
Da Du meine genialen between-the-lines-Talente nicht registriert hast -ich sprach von No. 3.
Gruß
P.
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 41.448.127 von Popeye82 am 03.05.11 23:56:23wat ne geile Begabung, GRATULATION !!
Total Shares Out Standing (millions): 61
Market Capitalization ($ millions): $58
Institutional Ownership: 3.1%
Price (as of 5/9/2011) 0.951
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=TLR&selected=T…
Ownership Analysis # Of Holders Shares
Total Shares Held: 17 1,875,627
New Positions: 3 80,410
Increased Positions: 7 291,211
Decreased Positions: 3 24,774
Holders With Activity: 10 315,985
Sold Out Positions: 2 24,283
--------------------------
Anstieg der Instis von 2,8% auf 3,1%...
gruß
massel
Market Capitalization ($ millions): $58
Institutional Ownership: 3.1%
Price (as of 5/9/2011) 0.951
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=TLR&selected=T…
Ownership Analysis # Of Holders Shares
Total Shares Held: 17 1,875,627
New Positions: 3 80,410
Increased Positions: 7 291,211
Decreased Positions: 3 24,774
Holders With Activity: 10 315,985
Sold Out Positions: 2 24,283
--------------------------
Anstieg der Instis von 2,8% auf 3,1%...
gruß
massel
DurchsuchenBeitrag zu dieser Diskussion schreiben
Zu dieser Diskussion können keine Beiträge mehr verfasst werden, da der letzte Beitrag vor mehr als zwei Jahren verfasst wurde und die Diskussion daraufhin archiviert wurde.
Bitte wenden Sie sich an feedback@wallstreet-online.de und erfragen Sie die Reaktivierung der Diskussion oder starten Sie eine neue Diskussion.
Investoren beobachten auch:
| Wertpapier | Perf. % |
|---|---|
| -1,31 | |
| +1,17 | |
| -4,61 | |
| 0,00 | |
| -3,75 | |
| -0,89 | |
| -3,48 | |
| -1,72 | |
| -2,83 | |
| +1,17 |
Meistdiskutiert
| Wertpapier | Beiträge | |
|---|---|---|
| 215 | ||
| 108 | ||
| 81 | ||
| 67 | ||
| 48 | ||
| 37 | ||
| 36 | ||
| 34 | ||
| 33 | ||
| 25 |
