Dividenden Strategie (Seite 56)

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Exelon A Top Pick Among Our 5 Interesting Plays

http://seekingalpha.com/article/518291-exelon-a-top-pick-amo…

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Zitat von cimar: Nestlé kauft Babynahrungssparte von Pfizer


Knapp 12 Milliarden Dollar lässt sich Nestlé den Bereich Babynahrung von Pfizer kosten. Der Kaufpreis ist höher als erwartet. Der Schweizer Lebensmittelkonzern sticht damit den Konkurrenten Danone aus.
http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/12-milliar…


Research update Nestle:
Little changed for Nestle NSRGY during the first quarter, as faster-growing emerging markets continue to offset more sluggish conditions in developed markets. Overall, internal sales jum ped 7.2%, reflecting 4.4% higher pricing and a 2.8% increase in volume. However, the growth was skewed, as sales soared 13.0% in emerging markets (more than one third of consolidated sales) but grew just 3.1% in developed regions. We expect this situation to persist, as uncertain economic conditions and austerity measures are likely to prevent consumers from meaningfully opening their purse strings in mature regions while emerging-market consumers' wealth and spending power continue to grow, leading to increased per capita consumption of some of Nestle's discretionary products, such as confectionery. Management seems to agree, maintaining its full-year forecast for 5%-6% internal sales growth, which we believe should be achievable given the packaged food firm's diversified geographic footprint and product portfolio. We will be updating our model and forecast to reflect these results, but we don't intend to make any material changes to our fair value estimates of CHF 50 for t he local shares and $57 per ADR. We continue to believe that investments in product innovation and marketing support will ensure Nestle's products win out relative to lower-priced value offerings. However, the firm is not without its share of challenges. If input cost inflation, which is expected to provide a slight benefit in the second half of the year, swings higher, the potential for further margin expansion could be constrained. We still consider Nestle to be an appropriate investment for individuals looking to gain broad access to consumer products; however, we view the shares as slightly overvalued at current market prices. Within packaged food, we think Campbell Soup CPB offers a more attractive valuation at present.

On Monday, Nestle NSRGY announced its intentions to acquire Pfizer's PFE infant nutrition business for $11.85 billion in an all-cash deal valued at 5 times fiscal 2012 sales and 19.8 times fiscal 2012 EBITDA. While the deal makes strategic sense for both parties, the price seems rich to us at first blush. However, the acquisition does not affect our fair value estimate for Nestle, given that the target segment's annual revenue of about $2.4 billion represents just 3% of packaged food firm's top line. We had initially estimated that the ultimate price for the Pfizer unit would be about $9 billion to $10 billion, but we expect that the higher price reflects the fa ct that Nestle wanted to keep this valuable asset out of its competitors' hands (namely Danone and Mead Johnson MJN). From Pfizer's perspective, while Pfizer sold the nutrition unit for a slightly higher than expected price, we don't expect to change the fair value for the company. However, we believe Pfizer will likely use the proceeds to repurchase shares, which will likely increase its 2013 earnings per -share growth by 300 basis points. We aren't surprised that Nestle would look to scoop up this attractive asset. The infant nutrition business is high growth (with Pfizer's unit generating about 85% of sales from faster growing emerging markets like China) and high margin (with EBITDA margins in the mid-20s). This follows on Nestle's purchase of a 60% stake in Chinese confectionery manufacturer Hsu Fu Chi, the producer of the popular breakfast bar Sachima, last summer. China--along with other growing Asian economies--is an attractive market for Western manufacturers, whose domestic markets offer very few growth opportunities, and this growth opportunity is reflected in the rich multiple Nestle is paying for the investment. When Nestle sold its stake in Alcon to Novartis NVS for $28 billion pretax, we argued that it should invest the cash in extending its footprint in emerging markets. In addition, the packaged food firm has repeatedly expressed its interest in building out its health and wellness offerings, and this acquisition fits that initiative. We continue to expect Nestle to make bolt-on acquisitions of health and wellness brands, as well as to look to further build out its presence in faster growing emerging and developing markets. From our perspective, the firm's balance sheet would support further leverage for a large acquisition.

[cimar]

Nestlé kauft Babynahrungssparte von Pfizer


Knapp 12 Milliarden Dollar lässt sich Nestlé den Bereich Babynahrung von Pfizer kosten. Der Kaufpreis ist höher als erwartet. Der Schweizer Lebensmittelkonzern sticht damit den Konkurrenten Danone aus.
http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/12-milliar…


Research update Nestle:
Little changed for Nestle NSRGY during the first quarter, as faster-growing emerging markets continue to offset more sluggish conditions in developed markets. Overall, internal sales jum ped 7.2%, reflecting 4.4% higher pricing and a 2.8% increase in volume. However, the growth was skewed, as sales soared 13.0% in emerging markets (more than one third of consolidated sales) but grew just 3.1% in developed regions. We expect this situation to persist, as uncertain economic conditions and austerity measures are likely to prevent consumers from meaningfully opening their purse strings in mature regions while emerging-market consumers' wealth and spending power continue to grow, leading to increased per capita consumption of some of Nestle's discretionary products, such as confectionery. Management seems to agree, maintaining its full-year forecast for 5%-6% internal sales growth, which we believe should be achievable given the packaged food firm's diversified geographic footprint and product portfolio. We will be updating our model and forecast to reflect these results, but we don't intend to make any material changes to our fair value estimates of CHF 50 for t he local shares and $57 per ADR. We continue to believe that investments in product innovation and marketing support will ensure Nestle's products win out relative to lower-priced value offerings. However, the firm is not without its share of challenges. If input cost inflation, which is expected to provide a slight benefit in the second half of the year, swings higher, the potential for further margin expansion could be constrained. We still consider Nestle to be an appropriate investment for individuals looking to gain broad access to consumer products; however, we view the shares as slightly overvalued at current market prices. Within packaged food, we think Campbell Soup CPB offers a more attractive valuation at present.

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Was akademisches zu Aktienrisikoprämien, die leider so schwer zu ermittlen sind...

Equity Risk Premiums (ERP): Determinants, Estimations and Implication
Aswath Damodaran - Stern Business School(March2012)
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

[cimar]

Größter Tagesverlierer aktuell Telefonica. Da Markt beginnt, das WorstCase Szenario zu spielen.

Was fundamentales zur Aktie:
Update: Telefonica TEF reported mixed 2011 results, but we're maintaining our fair value estimate. The firm's revenue increased 3.5% year over year versus our expectation of a gain of 4.3%. However, the majority of the difference is currency movements that went against Telefonica. The firm's Spanish business continues to struggle due to the recession with the fixed-line businesses revenue down 7.6% and the wireless business, falling 9.4% from the year-ago period. The fixed side was mostly hurt from losing retail customers, while the wireless side maintained its subscriber base, but saw average revenue per user, or ARPU, fall 10.2%. With the Spanish economy remaining in recession and more government-driven austerity measures still to kick in, we expect further revenue declines in the country. The positive side is due to Telefonica's weakness in Spain and its strength in Latin America, Spain now only accounts for 28% of the company's revenue while Latin America makes up 48%.

Latin America continues to be the firm's driving force. The firm's revenue in the region jumped 13.5% mostly due to subscriber growth. The region's operations added 17.7 million subscribers during the year, taking its total to 201.5 million, with the majority being wireless customers. We expect Latin America will be Telefonica's main source of subscriber and revenue growth going forward, but with the average wireless penetration rate in the region now about 111%, we expect the pace of growth will slow.

In the rest of Europe, the firm's revenue declined 1.3%. Both total subscribers and wireless subscribers increased 3% year over year. However, this was more than offset by wireless ARPU declines in each country. We expect price pressures to continue in Europe as the economies remain weak, which will make revenue growth difficult in the region.

The revenue weakness has also pressured margins. However, the decline was slightly less than we anticipated. Telefonica's EBITDA margin was 36.1% versus our expectation of 36%. We have modeled slightly improving margins from here as the firm has been cutting costs, but that may be a bit premature.

Capital Structure

While Telefonica's EUR 56.7 billion in net debt is large in absolute terms, it is only about 2.5 times EBITDA. We think this amount of debt is manageable for such a large firm with steady cash flows. The maturities are nicely staggered over many years, so no single year is a major concern for refinancing. Management insists it will continue to increase its dividend to EUR 1.75 per local share in 2013 and reduce debt to the midpoint of its target range of 2-2.5 times EBITDA. Under our projection the firm will be using more than 80% of its free cash flow to cover the increased dividend, which won't leave a lot of cash to reduce debt. If Telefonica has higher capital expenditure needs than we project or makes additional acquisitions, we think it will struggle to reduce its debt. This will also likely preclude any additional share buybacks. We think the dividend increase is more important to management and will supersede debt reduction if cash flow falls short of expectations

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update Intel:
Intel reported solid first-quarter results considering the recent hard disk drive (HDD) shortages that have been affecting PC production and chip demand. We are maintaining our fair value estimate. For the quarter, revenue was $12.9 billion, down 7% sequentially, but at the upper end of the firm's forecast of $12.3 billion-$13.3 billion that was provided in January. We think that Intel posted some pretty good results when considering that the first quarter is typically seasonally slower, and that Intel also faced disruptions to the PC supply chain caused by the HDD shortages. Despite the supply chain issues, Intel noted particular strength in end-market computer demand from consumers in emerging countries, such as China and Brazil, and from enterprises, while there continued to be softness in consumer PC demand in developed regions. The firm's PC processor segment posted sales of $8.5 billion, a decline of 7% from the fourth quarter. However, sales were only down 2% year over year, which is impressive, since HDD supply, while improving, is still at limited levels. Intel's server processor unit posted a quarter-over-quarter revenue decline of 10% to $2.5 billion. While we expect the server chip business to be a key growth driver for the firm in the upcoming years, driven by the build-outs of the cloud infrastructure, sales likely fell because customers reduced near-term demand in anticipation of the launch of the new Romley server platform, which came out in March. On the profitability front, gross margin fell to 64.0% from 64.5% in the fourth quarter, primarily due to lower volumes and higher chip unit costs. Intel posted an operating profit of $3.8 billion, down from $4.6 billion last quarter. For the second quarter, management expects revenue to be $13.1 billion-$14.1 billion, which at midpoint would indicate a sequential increase of 5%. The anticipated increase is above typical seasonality at
Intel, as the firm historically has seen sequential sales decline by 1% on average in the second quarter. Intel expects the improvement to be driven by the continued recovery in HDD shipments, which should result in improved levels of PC production, and hence, microprocessor demand from computer manufacturers. We think that Intel also should see a resumption of growth in its server processor business now that Romley has been released. Although the HDD problems are well on the way to being resolved by midyear, the Romley server platform is now out and Intel will soon launch its new 22-nanometer (circuit size) Ivy Bridge processors, which will be used in the firm's Ultrabook initiative. We continue to think that Intel will face rising competition from rival Advanced Micro Devices AMD in the coming months. We believe AMD is poised to capture some market share from Intel in PC processors, thanks to AMD's Fusion chips. Nonetheless, this is more of a near-term issue and we believ e that Intel can thrive in the long run. As we noted earlier, server processors likely will present Intel with substantial growth opportunities in the coming years, as the build-out of the cloud infrastructure that's needed to support the proliferation of tablets and smartphones will drive significant demand for the firm's server chips down the road.

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heute gekauft bzw. nachgekauft

Telefónica
ISIN ES0178430E18

Isar Capital Funding
ISIN DE000A1APTA4/EUR

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5 Oversold Dividend Stocks Poised For Long-Term Rebounds
http://seekingalpha.com/article/498451-5-oversold-dividend-s…

[cimar]

Tja...
Hab die Position gerade etwas reduziert.


Shell drops on Gulf of Mexico oil slick report
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shell-drops-on-gulf-of-mexi…

Royal Dutch Shell-Aktie: Ölfilm im Golf von Mexiko sorgt für deutliche Abschläge
http://www.aktiencheck.de/news/Artikel-Royal_Dutch_Shell_Akt…

[cimar]

Quartals-Kommentar von Martin Wirth (FPM).
http://www.fpm-ag.de/fileadmin/download_monatsbericht_2012/f…