Dividenden Strategie (Seite 62)
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/24/us-greece-idUSTRE8…
Greece launches long-awaited debt swap offer
Reuters) - Greece formally launched a bond swap offer to private holders of its bonds on Friday, setting in motion the largest-ever sovereign debt restructuring in the hope of getting its messy finances back on track.
The swap is part of a second, 130-billion-euro rescue package to claw Greece back from the brink of a disorderly default that had threatened to send shockwaves through the financial system and punish other weak euro zone members.
The complex deal was finalized this week after months of tortuous negotiations between Greece and its bondholders that were complicated by European partners driving a hard bargain, hedge funds holding out for a default and pressure on public creditors like the European Central bank to chip in.
The swap, in which investors will trade bonds for lower-value debt securities, aims to slice 100 billion euros off Greece's over 350 billion euro debt load.
The head of the International Institute of Finance (IIF), a bank lobby group that negotiated on behalf of the private sector, expressed optimism that the exchange would attract high participation from investors.
"We remain quite optimistic that once investors study this proposal ... there will be high take up," Charles Dallara, IIF managing director, said at the G20 meeting in Mexico City.
Greece's announcement Friday confirmed terms of the swap released earlier this week when the deal was struck.
Banks, insurers and other investors holding about 206 billion euros of Greek government bonds will take a 53.5 percent loss in the face value of their securities, with actual losses estimated at 73 to 74 percent.
As part of the swap, investors will pocket longer-dated Greek bonds worth 31.5 percent of their holdings and short-term paper issued by the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) equal to 15 percent of their old bonds.
The new bonds will carry an average coupon of 3.65 percent over the 30-year period and be governed by English law.
DOUBTS REMAIN
The debt swap, also known as private sector involvement, is designed to cut Athens' debt load to 120.5 percent of its gross domestic product by 2020 from 160 percent, in the hope that it would open the way for its eventual return to bond markets.
The debt exchange and the new bailout also buy time to stabilize the 17-nation euro zone currency bloc and shield it against a Greek default, which remains a long-term threat.
Despite offering some relief to Greeks and policymakers fretting about an imminent bankruptcy, the deal has yet to quell doubts about the viability of Greek debt and whether the stricken nation can get back on its feet.
The overall bailout package comes at the price of painful austerity measures that ordinary Greeks say have impoverished them. A mix of tax hikes and wage and pension cuts have sent unemployment soaring, shuttered businesses and brought thousands of Greeks out on the streets for near-daily protests.
Athens has said it wants to conclude the transaction by March 12. Focus now turns to the participation rate in the swap, with Athens also predicting a high take up.
"There is optimism in the government that there will be big participation in the swap," a Greek government official said.
Greece said it was not obliged to carry out the swap unless it had 90 percent participation. If the participation was below 90 percent but above 75 percent, then Greece would consult with its public creditors.
If the rate was less than 75 percent and it did not receive required consents, it would not go through with the deal, it said.
Greece has passed legislation introducing so-called collective action clauses (CACs) that allow it to force all bondholders to proceed with the swap once it has secured a specified level of approval.
Based on the recently approved law, the exchange will go ahead once 50 percent of bondholders have responded to the offer and the CACs will be activated once a two-thirds majority of that quorum has voted in favor of the swap.
"In my discussions ... no decision has been made on whether or not they will activate those collection action clauses," Dallara said. "Should they decide to activate, of course it does raise concern, including other sovereign issues."
Under the deal, investors will also get separate GDP-linked securities which will provide annual payments of up to 1 percent of the notional amount of the new bonds if the country's economic growth rate exceeds a certain threshold.
Greece appointed Deutsche Bank and HSBC to act as closing agents.
Greece launches long-awaited debt swap offer
Reuters) - Greece formally launched a bond swap offer to private holders of its bonds on Friday, setting in motion the largest-ever sovereign debt restructuring in the hope of getting its messy finances back on track.
The swap is part of a second, 130-billion-euro rescue package to claw Greece back from the brink of a disorderly default that had threatened to send shockwaves through the financial system and punish other weak euro zone members.
The complex deal was finalized this week after months of tortuous negotiations between Greece and its bondholders that were complicated by European partners driving a hard bargain, hedge funds holding out for a default and pressure on public creditors like the European Central bank to chip in.
The swap, in which investors will trade bonds for lower-value debt securities, aims to slice 100 billion euros off Greece's over 350 billion euro debt load.
The head of the International Institute of Finance (IIF), a bank lobby group that negotiated on behalf of the private sector, expressed optimism that the exchange would attract high participation from investors.
"We remain quite optimistic that once investors study this proposal ... there will be high take up," Charles Dallara, IIF managing director, said at the G20 meeting in Mexico City.
Greece's announcement Friday confirmed terms of the swap released earlier this week when the deal was struck.
Banks, insurers and other investors holding about 206 billion euros of Greek government bonds will take a 53.5 percent loss in the face value of their securities, with actual losses estimated at 73 to 74 percent.
As part of the swap, investors will pocket longer-dated Greek bonds worth 31.5 percent of their holdings and short-term paper issued by the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) equal to 15 percent of their old bonds.
The new bonds will carry an average coupon of 3.65 percent over the 30-year period and be governed by English law.
DOUBTS REMAIN
The debt swap, also known as private sector involvement, is designed to cut Athens' debt load to 120.5 percent of its gross domestic product by 2020 from 160 percent, in the hope that it would open the way for its eventual return to bond markets.
The debt exchange and the new bailout also buy time to stabilize the 17-nation euro zone currency bloc and shield it against a Greek default, which remains a long-term threat.
Despite offering some relief to Greeks and policymakers fretting about an imminent bankruptcy, the deal has yet to quell doubts about the viability of Greek debt and whether the stricken nation can get back on its feet.
The overall bailout package comes at the price of painful austerity measures that ordinary Greeks say have impoverished them. A mix of tax hikes and wage and pension cuts have sent unemployment soaring, shuttered businesses and brought thousands of Greeks out on the streets for near-daily protests.
Athens has said it wants to conclude the transaction by March 12. Focus now turns to the participation rate in the swap, with Athens also predicting a high take up.
"There is optimism in the government that there will be big participation in the swap," a Greek government official said.
Greece said it was not obliged to carry out the swap unless it had 90 percent participation. If the participation was below 90 percent but above 75 percent, then Greece would consult with its public creditors.
If the rate was less than 75 percent and it did not receive required consents, it would not go through with the deal, it said.
Greece has passed legislation introducing so-called collective action clauses (CACs) that allow it to force all bondholders to proceed with the swap once it has secured a specified level of approval.
Based on the recently approved law, the exchange will go ahead once 50 percent of bondholders have responded to the offer and the CACs will be activated once a two-thirds majority of that quorum has voted in favor of the swap.
"In my discussions ... no decision has been made on whether or not they will activate those collection action clauses," Dallara said. "Should they decide to activate, of course it does raise concern, including other sovereign issues."
Under the deal, investors will also get separate GDP-linked securities which will provide annual payments of up to 1 percent of the notional amount of the new bonds if the country's economic growth rate exceeds a certain threshold.
Greece appointed Deutsche Bank and HSBC to act as closing agents.
Portfolio Dividend Characteristics
Div% Port%
Gesamt Port 4,73% 100,00%
Aktien & Bonds invest. 5,68% 83,21%
Nur Aktien invest. 5,10% 74,84%
Nur Bonds invest. 7,24% 8,19%
Cash invest. 16,79%
Nur Div & Coup. invest. 6,13% 77,09%
Nur Kursgewinn invest. 0,96%
Div% Port%
Gesamt Port 4,73% 100,00%
Aktien & Bonds invest. 5,68% 83,21%
Nur Aktien invest. 5,10% 74,84%
Nur Bonds invest. 7,24% 8,19%
Cash invest. 16,79%
Nur Div & Coup. invest. 6,13% 77,09%
Nur Kursgewinn invest. 0,96%
Heute France Telekom nachgekauft.
Zitat von cimar: Aktie Port%Anteil
BASF 8,00%
Nestle 6,25%
Royal Dutch Shell 5,01%
Dt. Telekom 3,84%
Deutsche Post 3,83%
Johnson & Johnson 3,40%
Philip Morris 3,36%
Telefonica 3,13%
Freenet 3,05%
GlaxoSmithKline 2,83%
Cewe Color 2,66%
Dt. Euroshop 2,65%
Allianz 2,43%
Comdirect 2,40%
Roche 2,37%
France Telecom 2,36%
Seadrill 2,18%
MünchnerRück 2,09%
Daimler 2,06%
Intel 1,83%
Freenet 7,125% 2016 1,71%
DB NachRang 9,5% 2015 1,69%
Imperial Tobacco 1,63%
Raiffeisen Euro High Yield Fund 1,56%
Siemens 1,37%
Exelon 1,29%
Aareal PrefPref 1,22%
Microsoft 1,13%
Philip Morris CR 1,04%
Eon 1,01%
Unilever 0,82%
Celesio 4,5% 2017 0,81%
KTG Agrar 7,125% 2017 0,78%
Divi-Portf. 81,83%
Aktie Port Anteil
Greece 4,3% 20/3/2012 0,42%
Prophecy Ressources 0,64%
Gippsland 0,14%
BundFutureShortx15 0,11%
10YTreasury Shortx15 0,06%
Takt. Portf. 1,38%
Liquidität 16,79%
Gesamt Portfolio 100,00%
Aktie DivRendite/Yield
BASF 3,78%
Nestle 3,52%
Royal Dutch Shell 4,68%
Dt. Telekom 8,02%
Deutsche Post 4,95%
Johnson & Johnson 3,51%
Philip Morris 3,77%
Telefonica 10,10%
Freenet 7,86%
GlaxoSmithKline 4,94%
Cewe Color 3,77%
Dt. Euroshop 4,28%
Allianz 4,98%
Comdirect 6,59%
Roche 4,26%
France Telecom 11,97%
Seadrill 7,52%
MünchnerRück 5,73%
Daimler 4,69%
Intel 3,15%
Freenet 2016 7,125% 6,66%
DB Tier1 2015 9,5% 8,97%
Imperial Tobacco 3,79%
Raiffeisen Euro High Yield Fund 5,94%
Siemens 4,02%
Exelon 5,39%
Aareal Tier1 PrefPref 9,37%
Microsoft 2,55%
Philip Morris CR 10,80%
Eon 5,99%
Unilever 3,52%
Celesio 2017 4,5% 4,45%
KTG Agrar 2017 7,125% 7,27%
Aktie PortAnteil
BASF 8,00%
Nestle 6,25%
Royal Dutch Shell 5,01%
Dt. Telekom 3,84%
Deutsche Post 3,83%
Johnson & Johnson 3,40%
Philip Morris 3,36%
Telefonica 3,13%
Freenet 3,05%
GlaxoSmithKline 2,83%
Cewe Color 2,66%
Dt. Euroshop 2,65%
Allianz 2,43%
Comdirect 2,40%
Roche 2,37%
France Telecom 2,36%
Seadrill 2,18%
MünchnerRück 2,09%
Daimler 2,06%
Intel 1,83%
Freenet 7,125% 2016 1,71%
DB NachRang 9,5% 2015 1,69%
Imperial Tobacco 1,63%
Raiffeisen Euro High Yield Fund 1,56%
Siemens 1,37%
Exelon 1,29%
Aareal PrefPref 1,22%
Microsoft 1,13%
Philip Morris CR 1,04%
Eon 1,01%
Unilever 0,82%
Celesio 4,5% 2017 0,81%
KTG Agrar 7,125% 2017 0,78%
Divi-Portf. 81,83%
Aktie Port Anteil
Greece 4,3% 20/3/2012 0,42%
Prophecy Ressources 0,64%
Gippsland 0,14%
BundFutureShortx15 0,11%
10YTreasury Shortx15 0,06%
Takt. Portf. 1,38%
Liquidität 16,79%
Gesamt Portfolio 100,00%
BASF 8,00%
Nestle 6,25%
Royal Dutch Shell 5,01%
Dt. Telekom 3,84%
Deutsche Post 3,83%
Johnson & Johnson 3,40%
Philip Morris 3,36%
Telefonica 3,13%
Freenet 3,05%
GlaxoSmithKline 2,83%
Cewe Color 2,66%
Dt. Euroshop 2,65%
Allianz 2,43%
Comdirect 2,40%
Roche 2,37%
France Telecom 2,36%
Seadrill 2,18%
MünchnerRück 2,09%
Daimler 2,06%
Intel 1,83%
Freenet 7,125% 2016 1,71%
DB NachRang 9,5% 2015 1,69%
Imperial Tobacco 1,63%
Raiffeisen Euro High Yield Fund 1,56%
Siemens 1,37%
Exelon 1,29%
Aareal PrefPref 1,22%
Microsoft 1,13%
Philip Morris CR 1,04%
Eon 1,01%
Unilever 0,82%
Celesio 4,5% 2017 0,81%
KTG Agrar 7,125% 2017 0,78%
Divi-Portf. 81,83%
Aktie Port Anteil
Greece 4,3% 20/3/2012 0,42%
Prophecy Ressources 0,64%
Gippsland 0,14%
BundFutureShortx15 0,11%
10YTreasury Shortx15 0,06%
Takt. Portf. 1,38%
Liquidität 16,79%
Gesamt Portfolio 100,00%
Trading Spotlight
Zitat von cimar: Immer noch Top Position im Depot ist BASF, eines der wohl besten unternehemn der Welt:
BASF gibt sich mit Rekordjahr nicht zufrieden
Die Konjunktur in der Chemiebranche hat sich zuletzt abgekühlt - das bekam auch BASF zu spüren. Doch der Dax-Konzern hat sich besser geschlagen als erwartet und die Gesamtbilanz für 2011 fällt ohnehin positiv aus
...
http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/bilanz-201…
am abend kommt evtl noch ne research note...
BASF CEO Bock bei Reuters
http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/27akkU/link.reuters.com/fum76s
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/moral-hazard-cac/
Moral Hazard-CAC
....
CAC is the newest version of moral hazard. We know that, at inception, moral hazard cannot be priced in the markets. As we learned from Lehman Brothers, a primary dealer of the Federal Reserve, moral hazard’s cost is only measurable after the fact. CAC is an acronym that may join LEH and AIG. Buyers beware!
Moral Hazard-CAC
....
CAC is the newest version of moral hazard. We know that, at inception, moral hazard cannot be priced in the markets. As we learned from Lehman Brothers, a primary dealer of the Federal Reserve, moral hazard’s cost is only measurable after the fact. CAC is an acronym that may join LEH and AIG. Buyers beware!
Auch noch eine große Position im Depot, allerdings Kursmäßig weit hinter meiner Erwartung - Telefonica:
Telefonica übertrifft Erwartungen
Nach der Telekom ist auch beim spanischen Konkurrenten Telefonica das Ergebnis nicht rosig. Der Gewinn ist weniger als halb so groß wie noch vor einem Jahr. Die Analysten sind trotzdem positiv überrascht.
...
http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/it-medien/trotz-gewi…
Telefonica übertrifft Erwartungen
Nach der Telekom ist auch beim spanischen Konkurrenten Telefonica das Ergebnis nicht rosig. Der Gewinn ist weniger als halb so groß wie noch vor einem Jahr. Die Analysten sind trotzdem positiv überrascht.
...
http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/it-medien/trotz-gewi…
Immer noch Top Position im Depot ist BASF, eines der wohl besten unternehemn der Welt:
BASF gibt sich mit Rekordjahr nicht zufrieden
Die Konjunktur in der Chemiebranche hat sich zuletzt abgekühlt - das bekam auch BASF zu spüren. Doch der Dax-Konzern hat sich besser geschlagen als erwartet und die Gesamtbilanz für 2011 fällt ohnehin positiv aus
...
http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/bilanz-201…
am abend kommt evtl noch ne research note...
BASF gibt sich mit Rekordjahr nicht zufrieden
Die Konjunktur in der Chemiebranche hat sich zuletzt abgekühlt - das bekam auch BASF zu spüren. Doch der Dax-Konzern hat sich besser geschlagen als erwartet und die Gesamtbilanz für 2011 fällt ohnehin positiv aus
...
http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/bilanz-201…
am abend kommt evtl noch ne research note...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/are-we-running-out-greater-foo…
Are We Running Out Of Greater Fools?
The scale, speed, and time of the equity rally of the last five months or so echoes loudly the post-Jackson Hole rally in 2010 (from AUG10 to FEB11) and while the aggregate money pumpers of the world have done their best to keep the pedal to the metal (gold?), we worry that just as before we are running out of greater fools to buy assets at the margin in the hope that they will be first through the gates when the spigot gets turned off (or at minimum turned down). Sentiment is peaking, the number of bulls in the AAII survey is rolling over (just like in DEC10/JAN11), the number of bearish respondents is troughing (just like in DEC10) and the ratio of Bulls to Bears (having approached record highs) is now rolling over (just like in DEC10/JAN11). With energy prices surging (as they did in Q4 2010/ Q1 2011) and expectations high for the next round of gross money-printing (forget supposedly better US fundamentals, QE3 is here any minute apparently and LTRO 2 will be enough to build a real Death Star), we fear once again that hope has exceeded its credibility and with financials showing some cracks in their armor (in credit for sure and now in stocks too), perhaps the less-than-greatest fools are leaving the building early.
The upper pane shows the 'scale invariance' of the Jackson Hole QE rally (green arrows) relative to the current Twist/LTRO/Global pump-and-dump rally. It also shows (red arcs) the similar rolling over of the Bullish/Bearish Ratio of the AAII readings.
The middle pane shows the Bullish sentiment rolling over.
The lower pane shows the Bearish sentiment rising.
Of course, we could be facing the double-bluff of the contrarian contrarianist but given the previous experience, we suspect not.
Are We Running Out Of Greater Fools?
The scale, speed, and time of the equity rally of the last five months or so echoes loudly the post-Jackson Hole rally in 2010 (from AUG10 to FEB11) and while the aggregate money pumpers of the world have done their best to keep the pedal to the metal (gold?), we worry that just as before we are running out of greater fools to buy assets at the margin in the hope that they will be first through the gates when the spigot gets turned off (or at minimum turned down). Sentiment is peaking, the number of bulls in the AAII survey is rolling over (just like in DEC10/JAN11), the number of bearish respondents is troughing (just like in DEC10) and the ratio of Bulls to Bears (having approached record highs) is now rolling over (just like in DEC10/JAN11). With energy prices surging (as they did in Q4 2010/ Q1 2011) and expectations high for the next round of gross money-printing (forget supposedly better US fundamentals, QE3 is here any minute apparently and LTRO 2 will be enough to build a real Death Star), we fear once again that hope has exceeded its credibility and with financials showing some cracks in their armor (in credit for sure and now in stocks too), perhaps the less-than-greatest fools are leaving the building early.
The upper pane shows the 'scale invariance' of the Jackson Hole QE rally (green arrows) relative to the current Twist/LTRO/Global pump-and-dump rally. It also shows (red arcs) the similar rolling over of the Bullish/Bearish Ratio of the AAII readings.
The middle pane shows the Bullish sentiment rolling over.
The lower pane shows the Bearish sentiment rising.
Of course, we could be facing the double-bluff of the contrarian contrarianist but given the previous experience, we suspect not.
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