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Mosaic-Aktie nach Dividendenerhöhung im Blick | Diskussion im Forum

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Plymouth (www.aktiencheck.de) - Der US-Düngemittelkonzern Mosaic Co. (ISIN US61945C1036/ WKN A1JFWK) hat am Montag eine kräftige Dividendenerhöhung angekündigt. Demnach hat das Board eine Anhebung der Jahresdividende auf 50 Cents je Aktie …

Lesen sie den ganzen Artikel: Mosaic-Aktie nach Dividendenerhöhung im Blick
Color Me Bullish - Mosaic Remains A Buy As Industry Fundamentals Remain Strong

The Mosaic Company (MOS), after the market closed Nov. 13, cut its Q2 2013 guidance forecasts for potash and phosphate sales due to uncertainty surrounding new contract agreements with India and China, the two biggest consumers of Potash. Mosaic's fiscal year ends in May.

The signing of new contracts with China and India is being anticipated by late summer. Both countries have so far balked at signing new potash contracts. There is an oversupply of potash in China, and the recent subsidy cut in India has made the nutrient too expensive for farmers.

Volume guidance for potash was lowered by 23% at the midpoint, from 1.6 to 1.9 million tons to 1.3 to 1.4 million tons, reflecting ex-North American weakness. On the other hand, the guidance for phosphate volume was trimmed by 6% at the midpoint. The new guidance range for phosphate is 2.9 to 3.1 million tons.

The company further said that due to delays in the settlement of contracts with India and China, international buyers are stepping out of the market, which drove the guidance declines. In an effort to avoid inventory price risk, distributors are stepping out of the market. The company sees this same trend in international phosphate customers as well, which are "delaying purchases in spite of low reported producer inventories," but notes further that the fall in fertilizer demand in North America remains steep.

We believe the volume losses should be recovered as contracts are settled with India and China and global buyers step back into the market. We expect contracts with China to be settled by Q1 2013 and one with India by Q2 2013. Additionally, the company now expects to recognize tax benefits that will lower its full-year 2013 tax rate to 14%-16%, as compared to previous guidance in the upper 20% range.

The delay in new contracts with China and India is old news; the market already knows it and we believe it is already priced in to the stock. The stock is likely to come under pressure in the near term due to the recent
news and the negative sentiments surrounding the potash market, but long-term fundamentals remain strong. Our stance on MOS remains the same; we have an overweight rating. We believe sales are just delayed and not destroyed. The stock also offers a dividend yield of 2%.

We believe the fundamental agricultural outlook remains positive. As we mentioned in our previous article, the firm's high grain prices and elevated farmer income will increase the application of fertilizers as farmers look to capitalize on sound crop economics through enhanced yields.


Since MOS reported its new guidance, both MOS and POT are down by 3% and IPI by 1%. We are bullish on POT, whereas we have a neutral stance on IPI in the short term. However, as mentioned earlier, we have a bullish view on the industry, and we believe that the industry fundamentals remain positive. We are expecting strong performances from these companies in 2013.

Quelle:Seeking Alpha

Mosaic Seeks Higher Potash Price From China
By Christopher Donville - Jul 16, 2013 10:05 PM GMT+0200
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Mosaic Co. (MOS) Chief Executive Officer Jim Prokopanko said he’s pushing for higher potash prices from China, the world’s largest user of the crop nutrient, after a decline in inventories.
Canpotex Ltd., the export company jointly owned by Plymouth, Minnesota-based Mosaic, Agrium Inc. (AGU) and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., is in talks for a new supply agreement with China, Prokopanko said. The previous pact, for sales at $400 a metric ton, expired at the end of June.
Mosaic’s potash stockpiles have fallen, inventories also declined in importing countries and post-harvest demand from U.S. and Canadian farmers will be “very good,” he said today in an interview.
“We’ve asked for a higher price,” he said. “We’ve got a request on the table. I’m not throwing in the towel.”
Mosaic is pushing for higher prices in China even as it forecasts the average price its gets for its potash in the current quarter will decline sequentially.
The company, which got 60 percent of its revenue from outside North America last year, sees an average selling price of $330 to $360 a ton in the third quarter, down from $368 in the second, it said today in its latest earnings statement.
Mosaic, which also produces phosphate-based crop nutrients, expects to see “some sort of closure” on a potash contract with China in the current quarter, Richard McLellan, the company’s senior vice president of commercial, said today on a conference call.
Mosaic fell 3.6 percent to $54.12 in New York, the biggest decline since Feb. 20.
Potash is used by farmers to boost crop resistance to drought and strengthen plant root systems.
To contact the reporter on this story: Christopher Donville in Vancouver at cjdonville@bloomberg.net
Potash Group Surviving Demise of Russian Rival: Corporate Canada
By Liezel Hill & Christopher Donville - Jul 31, 2013 6:01 AM GMT+0200
The breakup of a Russian-led potash marketing venture won’t end the export partnership managed by North America’s three largest producers of the crop nutrient.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., Mosaic (MOS) Co. and Agrium Inc., which together account for about 38 percent of global potash capacity, are poised to continue managing supply to bolster prices. OAO Uralkali (URKA), the biggest producer, yesterday ended its marketing venture with Belarus and projected it will boost output next year by 24 percent, which may lower prices.
Canpotex, which becomes the largest potash marketing group following the demise of its Russian-led counterpart, “will continue to do what it does,” Mosaic Chief Financial Officer Larry Stranghoener said yesterday in a telephone interview. “It’s an organization of great value to its member organizations and to our customers.”
Shares of Potash Corp., Mosaic and Agrium plunged yesterday after Uralkali said it would exit the export marketing group Belarusian Potash Co. and increase output to full capacity. While Uralkali may grab market share, North American producers will probably maintain Canpotex because it’s less expensive for them to handle exports together, said Mark Gulley, a New York-based analyst at BGC Partners LP.
“Canpotex is really all about logistics,” Gulley said yesterday in a telephone interview. “It’s all about economies of scale to get the product from the Saskatchewan mines to a port and to destinations.”
Supply Wave
Uralkali’s move to stop cooperating with Belaruskali and increase annual production to 13 million tons next year from 10.5 million may reduce prices to less than $300 a ton, according to Uralkali Chief Executive Officer Vladislav Baumgertner. That would be at least 25 percent below the latest contract price for China and the lowest since January 2010.
Canpotex’s three owners’ potash production capacity accounts for about 37.5 percent of global capacity, according to data compiled by Barclays Capital Inc. Barclays estimates global production capacity of about 66.4 million metric tons.
Canpotex negotiates fixed-term supply contracts with customers outside of North America on behalf of its members, and also handles export logistics. That means the potash companies don’t compete with each other overseas.
‘Long-Term View’
Potash isn’t traded on public exchanges. Prices for potash for delivery at Vancouver’s port have fallen to $410 a ton, 19 percent less than a year earlier, according to data from Green Markets, a fertilizer-industry information provider that is a unit of Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News. The average retail potash price in 11 U.S. states has fallen 11 percent in the past year to $613.66, according to Green Markets.
Potash producers in Canada and the former Soviet Union accounted for 56 percent of world supply last year, according to Green Markets.
“It’s important to take a long-term view of the business and not overreact to today’s events,” Bill Johnson, a Potash Corp. spokesman, said yesterday by phone from Saskatoon, where the company is based. “We will continue to keep an eye on the situation and work with our customers in the interim.”
Potash Corp., which got 41 percent of its revenue last year from potash, dropped 17 percent yesterday in New York, the most since October 2008, as analysts cut ratings, target prices and earnings estimates. Peter Prattas, a Toronto-based analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald LP, lowered his rating to hold and reduced his per-share earnings estimate by 6.3 percent for 2013 and 13 percent for 2014.
‘One Player’
Agrium (AGU) plans to continue with its “normal course of operations,” Richard Downey, a company spokesman, said yesterday in an e-mail.
“Comments made by Russian producers have clearly created uncertainty in the potash market,” Downey said. “It is important not to overreact to a single statement from one player in the industry.”
Mosaic, based in Plymouth, Minnesota, dropped 17 percent to $43.81 in New York, the most since November 2008, while Calgary-based Agrium fell 5 percent to C$89.15.
“We believe potash earnings estimates will move materially lower,” Joel Jackson, a Toronto-based analyst at Bank of Montreal, said in a note. “We expect a major exit by investors out of potash producers.”
The members of Canpotex must decide whether a strategy of controlling supply to bolster prices can still be effective without BPC doing the same thing, said John Chu, a Toronto-based analyst at AltaCorp Capital Inc.
Meaningful Influence?
“Do they try to shut down more production in response to Uralkali increasing production? Possibly,” he said by phone yesterday. “The question becomes whether Canpotex, which represents 25 percent of the export trade market,” can have a meaningful influence on prices.
North American producers will probably reduce potash exports, given their past approach to supply management, Raymond Goldie, a Toronto-based analyst at Salman Partners Inc., said in a note yesterday. There’s also doubt that Uralkali can increase its production to the promised 13 million tons, Goldie said.
Even if existing mine output isn’t curtailed, Uralkali’s move makes it less likely that expansions and new mines, such as BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP)’s Jansen project in Canada, will go ahead, Prattas said.
A spokeswoman for BHP declined to comment yesterday.
Lower Prices
“The potash industry was largely ruled by the strength of that duopoly, being Canpotex and BPC,” Prattas said. “If there’s a crack in that duopoly then it threatens the whole playbook that the potash producers have.”
Potash Corp. last week cut its full-year earnings forecast after a drop in prices for its namesake crop nutrient.
Prices for potash, a crop nutrient that helps strengthen plant roots and improve resistance to drought, are down because of plentiful producer inventories and historically low import volumes in India. The company said it sold potash for an average price of $356 a metric ton in the second quarter, compared with $433 a year earlier.
The U.S. is the biggest importer of potash, about 90 percent of which comes from Canada, according to Neil Fleishman, a potash-industry analyst at Green Markets. The U.S., Brazil and China account for about 60 percent of global potash imports, he said.
Potash Corp., Agrium and Mosaic still have a geographic advantage in North America, Goldie said.
“The interior of North America is protected against the incursion of Russian and Belarusian potash by transportation costs which, for potash, are high relative to the value of the product,” Goldie said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Liezel Hill in Toronto at lhill30@bloomberg.net; Christopher Donville in Vancouver at cjdonville@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Steven Frank at sfrank9@bloomberg.net; Simon Casey at scasey4@bloomberg.net
In der Branche muss man wohl erstmal abwarten wie sich das ganze nun entwickeln wird. Ein langjähriger Preiskrieg wird wohl auf alle Producer Auswirkungen haben.
Zitat von Macros: In der Branche muss man wohl erstmal abwarten wie sich das ganze nun entwickeln wird. Ein langjähriger Preiskrieg wird wohl auf alle Producer Auswirkungen haben.

Wer weiß... habe vorhin MOS Teil 1 eingesackt.
Hab jetzt statt K+S noch Mosaic zugekauft. In meinen Augen beide Aktien ein relativ sicheres Investment.
eher eine schlechte Nachricht:

MELBOURNE (dpa-AFX) - Das weltgrößte Bergbauunternehmen BHP Billiton steckt weitere 2,6 Milliarden US-Dollar in seine kanadischen Kali-Aktivitäten. Um die Ausgaben für das Jansen-Bergwerk stemmen zu können, sei man auf der Suche nach Partnern, sagte BHP-Chef Andrew Mackenzie am Dienstag. Weitere Details über den möglichen Verkauf von Anteilen wollte er jedoch nicht nennen. Analysten der Citigroup schätzen die Kosten für das Kali-Projekt auf 16 Milliarden Dollar.

Dieser Schritt kommt nur einen Monat, nachdem der weltgrößte Kali-Produzent Uralkali sich aus dem Exportbündnis mit Belaruskali gelöst hatte. Im Nachhall waren die Preise für das Düngemittel stark ins Wanken geraten. Dass BHP trotz der prekären Lage an Investitionen in den Kali-Abbau festhält, begründet der UBS-Analyst Glyn Lawock damit, dass das britisch-australische Unternehmen bereits vier Milliarden Dollar für den Bau der kanadische Mine ausgegeben haben dürfte, bis eine endgültige Entscheidung getroffen ist. Nun sollen die weiteren Investitionen über einen längeren Zeitraum verteilt werden und bis 2017 jährlich rund 800 Millionen Dollar ausmachen, sagte Mackenzie.

Bereits 2010 hatte BHP versucht, sich mit der Übernahme des kanadischen Unternehmens Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan auf dem Kali-Markt zu etablieren. Die kanadische Regierung hatte das 40 Milliarden Dollar schwere Angebot von BHP allerdings verhindert. Nun baut sich BHP mit dem Jansen-Projekt ein eigenes Kali-Geschäft in der kanadischen Provinz Saskatchewan auf./hosseg/fn/enl

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