OT - It`s Awful, So It`s Time to Buy !!!!!!!!!!!! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite
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It`s Awful, So It`s Time to Buy
By James J. Cramer
4/14/00 3:31 PM ET
Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.
It`s the worst I have ever seen it. So we have to buy it. We are sticking by our plan. We just put $25 million to work because we have to. We don`t expect to be up on any of it, but we know we have to commit.
This is `87 like and I didn`t act fast and hard enough. It seems 1998 October-like, with another chance, this time to get it right. To get it long.
We have to buy because it hurts like a red hot rusty poker through our underbellies. It hurts like it has only hurt a few times. I have friends who have rumored to be in trouble. As I am an investor with them and privy I find it humorous and sad at the same time. It just seems right. It`s as bad as it gets, folks. It just seems right.
So often on Fridays people don`t want to buy because they remember that dreaded Friday before Monday when it was so bad in October 1987. To me it seems more like that Monday than that Friday. And the timing, a la the Trading Goddess, is very right. She was right again. The best prices came late at the end of the day.
By James J. Cramer
4/14/00 3:31 PM ET
Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.
It`s the worst I have ever seen it. So we have to buy it. We are sticking by our plan. We just put $25 million to work because we have to. We don`t expect to be up on any of it, but we know we have to commit.
This is `87 like and I didn`t act fast and hard enough. It seems 1998 October-like, with another chance, this time to get it right. To get it long.
We have to buy because it hurts like a red hot rusty poker through our underbellies. It hurts like it has only hurt a few times. I have friends who have rumored to be in trouble. As I am an investor with them and privy I find it humorous and sad at the same time. It just seems right. It`s as bad as it gets, folks. It just seems right.
So often on Fridays people don`t want to buy because they remember that dreaded Friday before Monday when it was so bad in October 1987. To me it seems more like that Monday than that Friday. And the timing, a la the Trading Goddess, is very right. She was right again. The best prices came late at the end of the day.
Sol lange Leute noch so etwas schreiben /und andere Leute es IMMER NOCH glauben ist es KEINE Zeit zu kaufen. Liqui: halten!
ahoi auch
MM = meine meinung
MfG don
MM = meine meinung
MfG don
By: morenmore
Reply To: None Friday, 14 Apr 2000 at 4:13 PM EDT
Post # of 109551
OT: Wait for CMGI to hit a consolidation range before buying in. You`ll know when we get there from the "dead cat bounce". Buy in when we test the lows. `Till then, it`s a freefall. Down 10 grand so far, but it`ll all come back one day.
BTW, as I`ve said before, diversity in more than one sector is a blessing in times like this. My palladium mining shares have been doing fine throughout this whole "Millenium Crash".
Remember J.P. Morgan`s old saying, "The best time to buy is when there`s blood in the streets." We`re not there... yet.
Reply To: None Friday, 14 Apr 2000 at 4:13 PM EDT
Post # of 109551
OT: Wait for CMGI to hit a consolidation range before buying in. You`ll know when we get there from the "dead cat bounce". Buy in when we test the lows. `Till then, it`s a freefall. Down 10 grand so far, but it`ll all come back one day.
BTW, as I`ve said before, diversity in more than one sector is a blessing in times like this. My palladium mining shares have been doing fine throughout this whole "Millenium Crash".
Remember J.P. Morgan`s old saying, "The best time to buy is when there`s blood in the streets." We`re not there... yet.
What a Turn!
By James J. Cramer
4/17/00 4:48 PM ET
Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.
Sometimes the market rewards the least likely scenario. And what would that be? We start going up from the get-go and keep going higher. A scenario in which we bottomed Friday.
I penned those words after we held our morning meeting. In the end, this business comes down to guts and psychology. We didn`t go down today because everybody thought we would. The market did the one thing that nobody expected. And that is often how things work out. Sure we started down, but when buyers came in they firmed and firmed immediately.
It was an amazing day.
We rallied right back to 3500 on the NDX , which is an incredible move.
If Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news - boards) is great tomorrow night, I suspect we will have a rally into expiration as there are now many shorts built into this market.
What a turn!
By James J. Cramer
4/17/00 4:48 PM ET
Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.
Sometimes the market rewards the least likely scenario. And what would that be? We start going up from the get-go and keep going higher. A scenario in which we bottomed Friday.
I penned those words after we held our morning meeting. In the end, this business comes down to guts and psychology. We didn`t go down today because everybody thought we would. The market did the one thing that nobody expected. And that is often how things work out. Sure we started down, but when buyers came in they firmed and firmed immediately.
It was an amazing day.
We rallied right back to 3500 on the NDX , which is an incredible move.
If Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news - boards) is great tomorrow night, I suspect we will have a rally into expiration as there are now many shorts built into this market.
What a turn!
Trading Spotlight
A Wave of Reassurance
By James J. Cramer
4/18/00 4:08 PM ET
Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.
Expiration is playing havoc with the market -- benefiting the long side. I see it. I feel it. I just don`t know how to play it. Our instincts are to play it with big-cap NDX names and that`s precisely how we are positioned.
This day gave us so much reassurance that, by the end of the day, we felt downright cocky in the Nasdaq hotties. We were even thinking of taking some I2 Technologies (ITWO:Nasdaq - news - boards) up 12 just to see if we could sell it for 16. But then common sense got the better of us. And we left a really good trade on the table.
Today was one of those days that must have given more hope than can be believed to the Buzz Goulds of the world. So we will have to contend with their arrogance for still one more dip.
Oh well.
By James J. Cramer
4/18/00 4:08 PM ET
Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.
Expiration is playing havoc with the market -- benefiting the long side. I see it. I feel it. I just don`t know how to play it. Our instincts are to play it with big-cap NDX names and that`s precisely how we are positioned.
This day gave us so much reassurance that, by the end of the day, we felt downright cocky in the Nasdaq hotties. We were even thinking of taking some I2 Technologies (ITWO:Nasdaq - news - boards) up 12 just to see if we could sell it for 16. But then common sense got the better of us. And we left a really good trade on the table.
Today was one of those days that must have given more hope than can be believed to the Buzz Goulds of the world. So we will have to contend with their arrogance for still one more dip.
Oh well.
Sure, Nasdaq`s Popping, but Heroes Beware
By Howard Simons
Special to TheStreet.com
4/18/00 4:20 PM ET
You never know what you`re made of until faced with a defining moment of stress. Even though our combat is confined to the markets, an important parallel between trading and warfare holds: Heroes are ordinary people who do extraordinary things.
An odd characteristic of large-scale industrial warfare was the unintended development -- planned by neither army and joined at a nonstrategic site -- of a cataclysmic bloodbath won by the heretofore-losing side. The list includes Gettysburg, Verdun, and Stalingrad. A common thread in all of these cases was overextension by too-confident winners and a subsequent refusal to acknowledge their predicaments until it was too late to do anything about it.
You only know you`re overextended after the fact. The winning side over the past few years, no question about it, has been the bulls. We now know, too late, the March highs represented a bridge too far. The trick will be acknowledging our predicament and organizing a strategic retreat.
...
By Howard Simons
Special to TheStreet.com
4/18/00 4:20 PM ET
You never know what you`re made of until faced with a defining moment of stress. Even though our combat is confined to the markets, an important parallel between trading and warfare holds: Heroes are ordinary people who do extraordinary things.
An odd characteristic of large-scale industrial warfare was the unintended development -- planned by neither army and joined at a nonstrategic site -- of a cataclysmic bloodbath won by the heretofore-losing side. The list includes Gettysburg, Verdun, and Stalingrad. A common thread in all of these cases was overextension by too-confident winners and a subsequent refusal to acknowledge their predicaments until it was too late to do anything about it.
You only know you`re overextended after the fact. The winning side over the past few years, no question about it, has been the bulls. We now know, too late, the March highs represented a bridge too far. The trick will be acknowledging our predicament and organizing a strategic retreat.
...
The Market`s New Math
By Jim Griffin
Special to TheStreet.com
4/19/00 12:00 PM ET
Is the selloff over? No. Is the rebound real? Yes. Has the crisis passed? No.
Huh? Isn`t this internally contradictory? No. Let`s define terms. Let`s name the parts.
A crisis is a concept in mathematics with meaning much the same as that used colloquially to describe a political or emotional emergency. In short, it refers to an extremum, a climax. Dare I say, turning point?
The snap-back rebound in tech names indicates that unbridled buy-the-dip optimism has not been broken. That bullishness is a powerful vector tending to push prices higher. But working against it is another vector, one that I believe is gaining strength. It is comprised of, among other elements, the excessive valuation of much of the tech sector and the progressive withdrawal of liquidity from the market, which is now taking place.
The trend in place still, at least until proven otherwise, reflects the upward bias of the bullish vector. And yet, I think the balance of these two irresistible forces is shifting in favor of the downward vector. When the balance of forces shifts, the trend comes to an extremum, a crisis point, and the direction changes.
Is the selloff over? No. Liquidity has crested and is receding. The Fed is tightening relentlessly and will continue to do so because the economy is speeding, and the March Consumer Price Index "surprise" raises the stakes for our central bankers. The IPO market has suffered only a temporary setback, so supply looks unlikely to evaporate. Last year`s booming IPO market means this year`s boom in lockup expirations. April`s tax date marks the end of the fat season for the investment of bonus and IRA money.
Is the rebound real? Yes: The freight train momentum of this bull market will not be derailed by the first shifting in the liquidity cycle. For example, the 1997 Thailand crisis didn`t stop it, nor did the 1998 Russian crisis and the Long Term Capital Management catastrophe. Those were deflationary challenges that were met by policy actions that increased liquidity. This time it`s different, different in kind. The risks are inflationary, calling for and resulting in tightening actions that relentlessly drain the bull market`s life blood. But not all at once. So the money is still there to bid `em back up when they hit an air pocket.
Has the crisis passed? No. Despite the amplitude of the decline, the selloff lacked the characteristics of a truly climactic event. Most of the major sentiment measures, such as those reported weekly in Barron`s, have been nearly inert lately, as if nothing has happened, or can happen, to disturb the sang-froid of investors. Complacency and crisis don`t go together. Volume has been heavy but not so far above trend as to suggest catharsis.
So if it`s a crisis but it has not passed, what should we call it? Call it a jagged top: you can`t much like the pattern of the Nasdaq over the past six weeks -- three sharp selloffs to progressively lower lows, each followed by a rally that falls short of the preceding high.
Or call it the New Market -- and get used to it. Why shouldn`t a new economy have a new market? If the New Economy really kicked in about mid-decade in a market environment of undervaluation -- and through the interaction of fundamentals, liquidity, and momentum, drove to a condition of widespread overvaluation -- it should not be surprising that it would top out in a violently volatile way.
Like it or not, get used to it -- there should be plenty more of the same ahead.
By Jim Griffin
Special to TheStreet.com
4/19/00 12:00 PM ET
Is the selloff over? No. Is the rebound real? Yes. Has the crisis passed? No.
Huh? Isn`t this internally contradictory? No. Let`s define terms. Let`s name the parts.
A crisis is a concept in mathematics with meaning much the same as that used colloquially to describe a political or emotional emergency. In short, it refers to an extremum, a climax. Dare I say, turning point?
The snap-back rebound in tech names indicates that unbridled buy-the-dip optimism has not been broken. That bullishness is a powerful vector tending to push prices higher. But working against it is another vector, one that I believe is gaining strength. It is comprised of, among other elements, the excessive valuation of much of the tech sector and the progressive withdrawal of liquidity from the market, which is now taking place.
The trend in place still, at least until proven otherwise, reflects the upward bias of the bullish vector. And yet, I think the balance of these two irresistible forces is shifting in favor of the downward vector. When the balance of forces shifts, the trend comes to an extremum, a crisis point, and the direction changes.
Is the selloff over? No. Liquidity has crested and is receding. The Fed is tightening relentlessly and will continue to do so because the economy is speeding, and the March Consumer Price Index "surprise" raises the stakes for our central bankers. The IPO market has suffered only a temporary setback, so supply looks unlikely to evaporate. Last year`s booming IPO market means this year`s boom in lockup expirations. April`s tax date marks the end of the fat season for the investment of bonus and IRA money.
Is the rebound real? Yes: The freight train momentum of this bull market will not be derailed by the first shifting in the liquidity cycle. For example, the 1997 Thailand crisis didn`t stop it, nor did the 1998 Russian crisis and the Long Term Capital Management catastrophe. Those were deflationary challenges that were met by policy actions that increased liquidity. This time it`s different, different in kind. The risks are inflationary, calling for and resulting in tightening actions that relentlessly drain the bull market`s life blood. But not all at once. So the money is still there to bid `em back up when they hit an air pocket.
Has the crisis passed? No. Despite the amplitude of the decline, the selloff lacked the characteristics of a truly climactic event. Most of the major sentiment measures, such as those reported weekly in Barron`s, have been nearly inert lately, as if nothing has happened, or can happen, to disturb the sang-froid of investors. Complacency and crisis don`t go together. Volume has been heavy but not so far above trend as to suggest catharsis.
So if it`s a crisis but it has not passed, what should we call it? Call it a jagged top: you can`t much like the pattern of the Nasdaq over the past six weeks -- three sharp selloffs to progressively lower lows, each followed by a rally that falls short of the preceding high.
Or call it the New Market -- and get used to it. Why shouldn`t a new economy have a new market? If the New Economy really kicked in about mid-decade in a market environment of undervaluation -- and through the interaction of fundamentals, liquidity, and momentum, drove to a condition of widespread overvaluation -- it should not be surprising that it would top out in a violently volatile way.
Like it or not, get used to it -- there should be plenty more of the same ahead.
A Reader Gets It Right
By James J. Cramer
4/27/00 12:26 PM ET
The fact that we get a crummy ECI number, which takes the Nasdaq down only 110 points with an ensuing rally has to be significant!! This means to me that the Nasdaq at current prices has discounted the Fed rate hikes and that we have put in a bottom. Just like you have pointed out in the past, when a stock doesn`t sell off on crummy news, you probably have seen the bottom. Very surprised you are shorting the QQQ (QQQ:Amex - news - boards).
Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.
I just got this communication from one of my savvier correspondents. I immediately sent it around the office. I thought this epitomized my view of the Nasdaq/tech world (as opposed to the Old Economy world which we booted this morning) better than anything I have written. This, basically, in a paragraph, is my thesis. I am now waiting for another downturn to buy more tech. If we don`t get it, that will mean that we will have to chase and I don`t want to do that.
Oh, and by the way, we covered the QQQs. We put those out because we were afraid that the ECI would impact tech the way the CPI impacted tech 10 days ago on that terrible Friday. Looks like that`s not going to happen, so we covered. We took a loss. Ah, yes, in real life managers take losses.
Those guys you see on your screen? They are Marcus Welby to my real-life emergency-room antics.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer`s writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at jjcletters@thestreet.com.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By James J. Cramer
4/27/00 12:26 PM ET
The fact that we get a crummy ECI number, which takes the Nasdaq down only 110 points with an ensuing rally has to be significant!! This means to me that the Nasdaq at current prices has discounted the Fed rate hikes and that we have put in a bottom. Just like you have pointed out in the past, when a stock doesn`t sell off on crummy news, you probably have seen the bottom. Very surprised you are shorting the QQQ (QQQ:Amex - news - boards).
Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.
I just got this communication from one of my savvier correspondents. I immediately sent it around the office. I thought this epitomized my view of the Nasdaq/tech world (as opposed to the Old Economy world which we booted this morning) better than anything I have written. This, basically, in a paragraph, is my thesis. I am now waiting for another downturn to buy more tech. If we don`t get it, that will mean that we will have to chase and I don`t want to do that.
Oh, and by the way, we covered the QQQs. We put those out because we were afraid that the ECI would impact tech the way the CPI impacted tech 10 days ago on that terrible Friday. Looks like that`s not going to happen, so we covered. We took a loss. Ah, yes, in real life managers take losses.
Those guys you see on your screen? They are Marcus Welby to my real-life emergency-room antics.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer`s writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at jjcletters@thestreet.com.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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