Amarin - The Science Of Lipid Therapy (Seite 116)
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ISIN: US0231112063 · WKN: A0NBNG · Symbol: AMRN
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Amarin Highlights Key Data Providing Mechanistic Insights into Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA) at ACC.24 08.04.24 · globenewswire |
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> 9,000,000 Total Capsules/week 
Leider sind es nur Interim results, aber als Late Braker tituliert, d.h. bahnbrechende news bzw. game-changer, yes we hope, alla Obama und nicht Twitter Depp Trump!
Zeitplan für November -Dezember
Monday, November 18, 9:00 – 9:10 a.m., Eastern U.S. Time
Session LBS.06 –
Late Breaking Science VI: New Frontiers in Lipid Therapy,
“Effect of Icosapent Ethyl on Progression of Coronary Atherosclerosis in Patients with Elevated Triglycerides (200 – 499 mg/dL) on Statin Therapy (EVAPORATE study),” – presented by Matthew J. Budoff, M.D., Los Angeles Biomedical Research.
Thursday, November 21, 2019, at 8:40 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) / 3:40 a.m. Eastern Time (ET) in London, UK.
A general company update at the Jefferies 2019 London Healthcare Conference on
02.12 - 06.12
CANADA approval ?
28.12.19
PDUFA - FDA
Monday, November 18, 9:00 – 9:10 a.m., Eastern U.S. Time
Session LBS.06 –
Late Breaking Science VI: New Frontiers in Lipid Therapy,
“Effect of Icosapent Ethyl on Progression of Coronary Atherosclerosis in Patients with Elevated Triglycerides (200 – 499 mg/dL) on Statin Therapy (EVAPORATE study),” – presented by Matthew J. Budoff, M.D., Los Angeles Biomedical Research.
Thursday, November 21, 2019, at 8:40 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) / 3:40 a.m. Eastern Time (ET) in London, UK.
A general company update at the Jefferies 2019 London Healthcare Conference on
02.12 - 06.12
CANADA approval ?
28.12.19
PDUFA - FDA
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 61.942.841 von Magnetfeldfredy am 17.11.19 10:42:03
Kurz zur Info:
Cherry Study using 1.8g /day of EPA for 7-8 months got ~ 18% reduction in plaque on healthier sushi eating Japanese population.
EVAPORATE will have ~9 month interim data with 4g/EPA a day.
Welche Plaque-Regression wird morgen am 18.11.19 um 15.00 MEZ in der EVAPORATE - Studie als Zwischenergebnis bekanntgegeben ????
Zitat von Magnetfeldfredy: Evaportate mogen wird hoffentlich noch mehr Positives hervorbringen, sollte sich bestätigen, dass Vascepa u.a. auch Plaque statistisch signifikant reduziert, ist das der Sargnagel für 55 Millionen shorts!
Kurz zur Info:
Cherry Study using 1.8g /day of EPA for 7-8 months got ~ 18% reduction in plaque on healthier sushi eating Japanese population.
EVAPORATE will have ~9 month interim data with 4g/EPA a day.
Welche Plaque-Regression wird morgen am 18.11.19 um 15.00 MEZ in der EVAPORATE - Studie als Zwischenergebnis bekanntgegeben ????
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 61.939.715 von Cyberhexe am 16.11.19 12:26:23
POPCORN...
ISTEINER CHURCHHILL..
Zitat von Cyberhexe:Zitat von flyingbeef: Ich sitze hier mit Popcorn echt wahr
....das darf doch mal sein, insbesondere nach einem positiven AC...ich habe mir gestern ein Fläschchen Markgräfler Gutedel gegönnt - Isteiner Churchhill
POPCORN...
ISTEINER CHURCHHILL..
Trading Spotlight
What's Next for Amarin's Stock?
Amarin's days could be numbered after a positive adcom vote.
George Budwell
George Budwell
(TMFGBudwell)
Nov 15, 2019 at 9:00AM
Author Bio
Yesterday, Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN) scored a major win. All 16 panelists on Vascepa's advisory committee voted in favor of the drug's cardioprotective benefit based on the unprecedented results of the cardiovascular outcomes study Reduce-It.
Wall Street, for its part, immediately chimed in on the potential impact of this favorable outcome. Analysts quickly noted that this label expansion could broaden the drug's target market to anywhere between 5 million to 15 million patients in the United States, depending on how broad of a label the FDA chooses to go with.
Wooden blocks that spell out "buy-out".
Image Source: Getty Images.
The quirky part of the story is that these same analysts suggested that Vascepa's peak sales could vary from a low of $1.5 billion to a high of $4 billion following this positive advisory committee vote -- again, reflecting the huge discrepancy in the drug's potential target market based on the uncertainty of its final label.
What the Street is really saying
What's odd about these peak sales figures is that they simply don't make mathematical sense. To square this circle, we have to assume that Wall Street is either predicting that Amarin will significantly lower Vascepa's net selling price (it won't), or that the company will have a hard time servicing this massive target market (it might).
Breaking this down further, most industry insiders agree that Vascepa's Reduce-It indication should cover at least around 10 million people in the United States (i.e., patients presently on statin therapy but who still have trouble controlling their triglyceride levels). A $4 billion peak sales estimate thus implies a 25% penetration rate.
That's crazy low for a drug aimed at patients with an elevated risk of heart attack or stoke, and that are already receiving care in the form of statin therapy. Stated plainly, pharma reps aren't going to have to beat the bushes to identify the vast majority of these patients.
What gives? Wall Street is basically saying that Amarin won't be able to handle the volume associated with this market -- and there's good reason to believe that a bottleneck effect could come into play.
What's next?
To remedy this situation, Amarin has three clear choices to maximize shareholder value in the near-term:
Aggressively build out its commercial infrastructure. Amarin has announced a doubling of its sales force, but it still has a long ways to go before it can fully cover this enormous patient population. This option also runs the risk of jacking up expenses well before the surge in demand fully materializes. That's not exactly prudent for a company finally on the cusp of becoming cash flow positive.
Enter into a co-promotional partnership with a big pharma like Pfizer (NYSE:PFE). Pfizer has the connections and commercial bandwidth to transform Vascepa into a juggernaut within a very short period of time. A co-promotional deal might also involve a significant equity stake from the likes of Pfizer or perhaps a large up-front cash infusion. Either way, Amarin's shareholders would benefit immensely from a partnering deal.
Put the company up for sale. Amgen, Pfizer, and Novartis have all been rumored to have interest in Amarin. An outright sale eliminates the inherent commercialization risk associated with a go-it-alone strategy, and it would almost certainly come at a healthy premium.
What's the most likely outcome? A buyout. These types of megablockbuster drugs do not come around often, and there's just no way big pharma is going to let this opportunity pass them by. In fact, Pfizer has a Vascepa-sized hole in its product portfolio right now with the loss of exclusivity for its nerve pain medication Lyrica. Pfizer's management has also openly admitted to an interest in pursuing more bolt-on acquisitions. Amarin, in many ways, would be an ideal pick-up for Pfizer, especially with the big pharma's ongoing metamorphosis into a growth-oriented company.
Amarin's days could be numbered after a positive adcom vote.
George Budwell
George Budwell
(TMFGBudwell)
Nov 15, 2019 at 9:00AM
Author Bio
Yesterday, Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN) scored a major win. All 16 panelists on Vascepa's advisory committee voted in favor of the drug's cardioprotective benefit based on the unprecedented results of the cardiovascular outcomes study Reduce-It.
Wall Street, for its part, immediately chimed in on the potential impact of this favorable outcome. Analysts quickly noted that this label expansion could broaden the drug's target market to anywhere between 5 million to 15 million patients in the United States, depending on how broad of a label the FDA chooses to go with.
Wooden blocks that spell out "buy-out".
Image Source: Getty Images.
The quirky part of the story is that these same analysts suggested that Vascepa's peak sales could vary from a low of $1.5 billion to a high of $4 billion following this positive advisory committee vote -- again, reflecting the huge discrepancy in the drug's potential target market based on the uncertainty of its final label.
What the Street is really saying
What's odd about these peak sales figures is that they simply don't make mathematical sense. To square this circle, we have to assume that Wall Street is either predicting that Amarin will significantly lower Vascepa's net selling price (it won't), or that the company will have a hard time servicing this massive target market (it might).
Breaking this down further, most industry insiders agree that Vascepa's Reduce-It indication should cover at least around 10 million people in the United States (i.e., patients presently on statin therapy but who still have trouble controlling their triglyceride levels). A $4 billion peak sales estimate thus implies a 25% penetration rate.
That's crazy low for a drug aimed at patients with an elevated risk of heart attack or stoke, and that are already receiving care in the form of statin therapy. Stated plainly, pharma reps aren't going to have to beat the bushes to identify the vast majority of these patients.
What gives? Wall Street is basically saying that Amarin won't be able to handle the volume associated with this market -- and there's good reason to believe that a bottleneck effect could come into play.
What's next?
To remedy this situation, Amarin has three clear choices to maximize shareholder value in the near-term:
Aggressively build out its commercial infrastructure. Amarin has announced a doubling of its sales force, but it still has a long ways to go before it can fully cover this enormous patient population. This option also runs the risk of jacking up expenses well before the surge in demand fully materializes. That's not exactly prudent for a company finally on the cusp of becoming cash flow positive.
Enter into a co-promotional partnership with a big pharma like Pfizer (NYSE:PFE). Pfizer has the connections and commercial bandwidth to transform Vascepa into a juggernaut within a very short period of time. A co-promotional deal might also involve a significant equity stake from the likes of Pfizer or perhaps a large up-front cash infusion. Either way, Amarin's shareholders would benefit immensely from a partnering deal.
Put the company up for sale. Amgen, Pfizer, and Novartis have all been rumored to have interest in Amarin. An outright sale eliminates the inherent commercialization risk associated with a go-it-alone strategy, and it would almost certainly come at a healthy premium.
What's the most likely outcome? A buyout. These types of megablockbuster drugs do not come around often, and there's just no way big pharma is going to let this opportunity pass them by. In fact, Pfizer has a Vascepa-sized hole in its product portfolio right now with the loss of exclusivity for its nerve pain medication Lyrica. Pfizer's management has also openly admitted to an interest in pursuing more bolt-on acquisitions. Amarin, in many ways, would be an ideal pick-up for Pfizer, especially with the big pharma's ongoing metamorphosis into a growth-oriented company.
Evaporate heißt die Studie!
Evaportate mogen wird hoffentlich noch mehr Positives hervorbringen, sollte sich bestätigen, dass Vascepa u.a. auch Plaque statistisch signifikant reduziert, ist das der Sargnagel für 55 Millionen shorts!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 61.936.895 von flyingbeef am 15.11.19 20:41:53
das darf doch mal sein, insbesondere nach einem positiven AC...ich habe mir gestern ein Fläschchen Markgräfler Gutedel gegönnt - Isteiner Churchhill
Zitat von flyingbeef: Ich sitze hier mit Popcorn echt wahr
Sorry war jetzt nicht sehr informativ aber an solchen Tagen darf man auch mal etwas albern sein 🙃
das darf doch mal sein, insbesondere nach einem positiven AC...ich habe mir gestern ein Fläschchen Markgräfler Gutedel gegönnt - Isteiner Churchhill
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 61.933.181 von flyingbeef am 15.11.19 14:22:08
die Mehrheit der Aktien befinden sich im Streubesitz bzw. bei institutionellen Anlegern. Wenn diese mit einer Übernahme einverstanden sind, dann wird das Management nur wenig dagegen ausrichten können!
Für das Ausmass des wirtschaftlichen Erfolg ist entscheidend, wie "breit" das Label bei der Anwendung sein wird. Dies werden wir spätestens am 28.12.2019 erfahren, wenn die FDA ihre Zulassungsentscheidung einschliesslich Label bekanntgeben wird. Die Sekundärpräventionspatienten dürften sicher sein - das ist fast schon 100%ig....obschon es ein solch sicheres Szenario an der Börse eigentlich nicht gibt. Bei den Primärpräventionspatienten erscheint mir alles offen - ich persönlich rechne nicht damit, dass alle Risikopatienten mit eingeschlossen werden, sondern nur solche mit bestehender Herz-Kreislaufsymptomatik. Aber das ist reine Spekulation.
Es gilt wie immer: TIME WILL TELL!
Zitat von flyingbeef:Zitat von Magnetfeldfredy: John Thero hat nur 5 % seiner Aktien verkauft, das hat mich nicht beunruhight, 16:0 und Evaportate vor der Tür lassen auf viel mehr hoffen, bzw. eine Übernahme für US Dollar 50!
Wenn ich mich richtig erinnere:
Amarin hat aber immer gesagt Übernahme "nicht mit uns" daher ich glaube die wollen die Zügel auch langfristig in der Hand haben sollte trotzdem ordentlich nach oben rauschen.
die Mehrheit der Aktien befinden sich im Streubesitz bzw. bei institutionellen Anlegern. Wenn diese mit einer Übernahme einverstanden sind, dann wird das Management nur wenig dagegen ausrichten können!
Für das Ausmass des wirtschaftlichen Erfolg ist entscheidend, wie "breit" das Label bei der Anwendung sein wird. Dies werden wir spätestens am 28.12.2019 erfahren, wenn die FDA ihre Zulassungsentscheidung einschliesslich Label bekanntgeben wird. Die Sekundärpräventionspatienten dürften sicher sein - das ist fast schon 100%ig....obschon es ein solch sicheres Szenario an der Börse eigentlich nicht gibt. Bei den Primärpräventionspatienten erscheint mir alles offen - ich persönlich rechne nicht damit, dass alle Risikopatienten mit eingeschlossen werden, sondern nur solche mit bestehender Herz-Kreislaufsymptomatik. Aber das ist reine Spekulation.
Es gilt wie immer: TIME WILL TELL!
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Amarin - The Science Of Lipid Therapy
