Wann und wie kommt der nächste Crash? (Seite 35)

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 70.530.641 von faultcode am 17.01.22 11:48:06

Ukraine:


https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1493279960424980481

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Wann und wie kommt der nächste Crash?

so vielleicht?


https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/202…

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 70.502.885 von faultcode am 14.01.22 00:19:06

Jay Powell:


...
https://occupythefed.substack.com/p/fed-scandal-bigger-than-…

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 70.750.374 von faultcode am 04.02.22 19:55:38

2:34 PM · Feb 4, 2022
U.S. INTEREST RATES FUTURES IMPLY MORE THAN 5 HIKES IN 2022 AFTER U.S. JOBS DATA -FEDWATCH
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1489593249278971912

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.238.040 von faultcode am 17.11.18 03:03:29

$HYG -- iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF: hier crasht es nun in der Tat:

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31.1.
Stock Market Chaos Revved Up by Options Dealers Rushing to Hedge
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-chaos-revved-opt…
...
Thinning liquidity is both a cause and consequence of increased volatility, which makes assessing its exact role in fomenting market turbulence impossible. Reticence normally rises among market makers when prices are swinging, but which is causing which is never quite clear. Still, charting liquidity against past episodes of stress can give an idea of the depth of the uneasiness now.

To Goldman’s Fishman, a lack of market liquidity is the team’s “biggest technical concern” at the moment.

“On-screen liquidity has become so poor that futures have been more than one tick wide over 20% of the time,” he wrote in a note to clients. “Weak liquidity means flows matter more, and leaves the potential for outsized market moves (in both directions).”
...

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 70.700.166 von faultcode am 31.01.22 23:31:53

das noch dazu, wie z.B. der $QQQ (mitten im "Corona-Margin-Calls-Crash"/FC) drehte nach dem Einsatz von Mitteln aus dem Exchange Stabilization Fund's:




gut, könnte man nun sagen, die Bank of Japan, wie auch eben die Treasury, haben sowas schon lange gemacht.

Dennoch: viele Hedge Funds, gleich mit Büro in relativer Nähe zur New York Fed, waren eben damals von der raschen Markterholung, und für den Rest des Jahres 2020, überrascht worden:

22.04.2021

Zitat von faultcode: ...
Last year was particularly tough for computer-driven quant funds. Algorithms largely failed to decipher the impact of a rapidly moving virus and the response from central banks to contain economic damage. The market selloff in March last year and subsequent recovery humbled some of the most sophisticated of quants -- most notably behemoths such as Renaissance Technologies, Winton and Two Sigma.
...

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 70.611.709 von faultcode am 23.01.22 22:58:07

FED Put: die offenbar neueste Masche: Herumschrauben an den Futures in Chicago:

31.1.
The New York Fed Has Quietly Staffed Up a Second Trading Floor Near the S&P 500 Futures Market in Chicago
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/01/the-new-york-fed-has-…
...

mit Auszügen, weitere sollen folgen, aus dem sehr lesenswerten (und aktuellen) Buch:

Zitat von faultcode: ...

The Lords of Easy Money: How the Federal Reserve Broke the American Economy, Christopher Leonard, 2022

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31.1.
Then and Now: How This Fed Liftoff Is Nothing Like That of 2015
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/then-now-fed-liftoff-nothing-…
...
The Fed is much more optimistic on economic growth this time around. According to the central bank’s latest projections, gross domestic product will expand at a 4% rate this year, more than double the longer-term estimated pace. In December 2015, the central bank called for GDP to rise 2.4% in the year ahead.

The upbeat view is supported by expectations for healthy consumer spending as households are flush with cash, thanks to a stock-market rally that’s helped add trillions of dollars to household wealth in the pandemic, as well as unprecedented government stimulus and record home valuations. The collapse of the housing market, of course, was at the root of the 2008 recession that preceded the 2015 tightening cycle.

The Treasury market also has a much different tone these days. Traders are currently pricing in an average annual inflation rate of nearly 2.9% from now through January 2027. In December 2015, it was 1.2%.

Credit risk gauges remain below pre-pandemic levels, indicating that investors see a path for the Fed to tighten without damaging corporate access to funding.



Zu: "gross domestic product will expand at a 4% rate this year" --> wenn die FED da mal nur Recht behält

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<ich habe gestern die technische Erholung genutzt, um mich von ein paar Positionen zu trennen:
• UVE -- komplett, Gewinnmitnahme (keine Core-Position)
• HQY -- dito
=> ich fürche ein bischen um die finanzielle Verfassung der US-VerbraucherInnen in 2022e + 2023e

• NVT -- Mitnahme von Teilgewinnen: BBB ("Build Back Better"-Agenda) kommt später oder nur teilweise oder vielleicht auch gar nicht

Aber:
• Wiedereinstieg bei H&M --> https://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1128831-1-10/h-m…
>