Börsengang von Rocket Internet - Top oder Flop? (Seite 424)

    eröffnet am 07.08.14 09:32:31 von
    neuester Beitrag 24.05.24 18:01:39 von
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    ISIN: DE000A12UKK6 · WKN: A12UKK · Symbol: RKET
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     Ja Nein
      schrieb am 09.12.14 18:43:32
      Beitrag Nr. 956 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.523.979 von sdaktien am 09.12.14 12:36:43Schöne Anspielung mit der Tulpenzwiebelhausse, gefällt mir ! :keks:
      schrieb am 09.12.14 18:06:43
      Beitrag Nr. 955 ()

      habe noch nicht gelesen, dass jemand diese (unabhängige) Analysten-Meinung, die wie ich finde sogar sehr zurückhaltend ist, gepostet hat.

      Reasons Why I‘m Not Investing in Rocket Internet
      Rocket Internet undoubtedly has potential. But there are various reasons though to stay out of the game.
      • „Rocket Internet flops on its IPO“
      • „Rocket Internet disappoints“
      • „Rocket Internet destroys the stock market“
      These and many similar statements regarding the Rocket Internet (ETR:RKET) IPO were recently being tossed about by the media. However, this just shows how extremely short-term oriented stock market coverage is. Rocket isn’t a bad investment just because the stock price slipped below the IPO price a few hours after trading started.
      Fellow Fool Miklos Szekely recently posted an optimistic view on Rocket’s long-term perspective, which you can find here.
      I am way more defensive and not nearly as bullish. The following are the three main reasons why I’m not investing in Rocket’s stock:
      1. Too many uncertainties in the valuation of the stock
      Rocket Internet is a holding company. It has stakes in about 50 companies operating in more than 100 countries. Several of these companies are younger than my daughter who has just learned to speak her fifth word. So how can we value Rocket considering all of that?
      The easist way would be to say that we trust the current investors in these 50 companies and accept their valuations. You can find these “last portfolio values” in the prospectus. If you now add Rocket’s other net assets after the IPO, you arrive at a value of 23.08 Euro per share (see page S-26 in the prospectus).
      This is at least an indication of the value. But we don’t want to rely completely on others when making our investment decisions, do we? Hence, we’d have to value every single company in the conglomerate. I spare you how I would approach that, but the following would be the major factors:
      • Estimated capital requirements
      • Estimated probability of surviving
      • Estimated potential total addressable market
      • Estimated profit margin
      That’s a lot of estimates, right? And we’d have to do this for every single company. To make it even more complex, Rocket is going to add companies every month or so. Coming up with realistic and reliable assumptions is a Herculean task. If one of you knows an easier way, I’m looking forward to comments below the article.
      Actually, we could simplify the approach. We could say that it would be enough if at the end — say 10 years from now — Rocket will have hatched four-to-five real winners from whose profits they are profiting and all the other companies won’t have swallowed too much capital. If your conclusion is that this is a likely outcome, then I’d say a market capitalization of six billion Euros is justified.
      I don’t want to dismiss this outcome out of hand — after all, Rocket owns companies in two of the four most populous countries in the world, India and Indonesia — but I don’t feel like I can realistically assess the probability at the moment. Since hope of high profits alone is not a reason for me to invest, I prefer to watch the events from the sidelines.
      2. Opaque strategy
      In short, Rocket wants to:
      1. Sell its companies for a maximum profit as early as possible, or
      2. be involved in them as long as possible to reap the benefits of the operating profits once they materialize.
      I haven’t found a definite statement in the prospectus that says for sure which it will be going forward.
      I tend to believe that Rocket is open to both, but I consider the former to be much more likely. Especially since the Samwer brothers have already had outstanding success with this approach. On the other hand, they have little experience with running a seasoned business.
      Since I only invest in companies whose long-term earnings potential I believe I can estimate, my preference is for the second option. According to the prospectus, Rocket expects it’s companies to reach break-even six to nine years after founding them. Hence, even if they choose option number two, it’ll still be quite a long time before the profitable payoff.
      3. The management team
      To be sure, I do have respect for what the three Samwer brothers have built and achieved. They were not only at the right place at the right time, but they also showed the right instinct and acted on it. At the very least, this has worked out well for the brothers and the co-founders of their previous successfully-sold companies.
      However, I cannot identify with their methods — which admittedly I only know only by hearsay (see the „Blitzkrieg E-Mail“ for example). Recently, their tone has been a little less aggressive, but I have my doubts that this is authentic. And the term “proven winners” — as Rocket calls the pearls in its portfolio — has a touch of pretension. After all, all of these companies still produce significant losses.
      Sure, optimism is a prerequisite to successfully lead a company like Rocket Internet — and incidentally also to invest in the company. For external communication though, I would like to see more appropriate word choices. The approach of Rocket’s management to date causes me to doubt whether management is candid with its investors. And sincerity of management is a core criterion for me to invest in a company.
      Another issue that backs my impressions: Since early August, Rocket has landed three investors who have successively increased Rocket’s valuation. This move — we’re talking about a space of not even two months between the new investors and the IPO — makes me a bit queasy.
      The German media has talked unfavorably about Rocket primarily because the company, or the banks involved, have not tried to stabilize the share price in the hours after the start of trading. For Foolish investors though, this is of little importance, and we should ignore such discussions.
      For us, it is important if Rocket offers us the opportunity to pay 50 cents for one Euro of value. Unfortunately, my short answer to that is: Though I don’t think it’s unrealistic, I think it’s extremely difficult to realistically estimate that kind of an outcome. In addition, there are some strategy and the management practices that don’t sit well with me.
      Do you disagree with me? Share your thoughts in the comments section below. I consider the opportunity of Rocket Internet very interesting and wouldn’t mind if someone was able to change my mind!…
      schrieb am 09.12.14 15:02:54
      Beitrag Nr. 954 ()
      im Moment sieht es doch wieder ganz gut aus, sollte die nächste Tage nochmal die 56 angetestet werden...

      die Banke hams irgendwie mit den 41 Päckchen, hab grad mal wieder ne dolle Leistung gesehen:

      den Kurs mit !~300Stck! 0,30€ nach oben gehoben
      4 Antworten?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
      schrieb am 09.12.14 14:24:57
      Beitrag Nr. 953 ()
      Nein, die Rakete steht doch wie'ne Eins.

      Wenn es abwärts geht, werden wir wohl bei RI anhand eines Fächermusters erklärt bekommen, warum die Aktie nicht weiter fallen kann... nicht weiter falen kann... jetzt aber hält!
      Ich glaube auf solche Textpassagen aus den befreundeten Analystenhäusern sollte man achten.
      schrieb am 09.12.14 13:24:31
      Beitrag Nr. 952 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.472.124 von Rabengold am 02.12.14 13:00:15
      Zitat von Rabengold: Daraus folgere ich: Wenn das von ihm empfohlene Stopp-Limit 52,92 EUR gerissen wird, gehts scharf nach unten.

      Ist das heute nun schon der Startschuß Richtung Penisstock? :confused: :D

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      schrieb am 09.12.14 12:36:43
      Beitrag Nr. 951 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.510.149 von Julius_Bier am 07.12.14 17:41:34Soviel Philosophie hätte ich RI gar nicht zugetraut. Die "proven winners" sind natürlich die zarten Pflänzchen, die erst noch gedeihen müssen und damit ein Hinweis (Achtung jetzt kommt's!) auf die Tulpenzwiebelhausse in den Niederlanden. Das Ende ist ja bekannt.

      *Um Fassung ring* Ich werd jetzt meinen Kant nehmen und ganz still hineinweinen ob dieser Erkenntnis. :cry:
      1 Antwort?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
      schrieb am 09.12.14 12:06:43
      Beitrag Nr. 950 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.518.711 von restlessgeneration am 08.12.14 20:12:17Angst?

      Ja, Angst was zu verpassen!:laugh:
      Meine Vermutung lag in einem nochmaligen annähern an die 58
      schrieb am 08.12.14 22:10:14
      Beitrag Nr. 949 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.516.743 von SchnerJrg am 08.12.14 17:11:54...also ich für meine Person hab mir die letzten Tage mit 20 % versüßt...
      schrieb am 08.12.14 20:12:17
      Beitrag Nr. 948 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.516.743 von SchnerJrg am 08.12.14 17:11:54Biste drin? Haste Angst?
      Immer daran denken. Es handelt sich bei den Beteiligungen um digitale Handelsgesellschaften. Marken die aufgebaut und täglich gepflegt werden müssen...wir reden nicht über Google facebook etc.,.
      Und wir reden über wirtschaftlich, politisch instabile Märkte.
      Rubel? Russland?
      Der Markt bewertet rocket als ob es für jede Beteiligung einen Käufer geben wird, der bereit ist das 20 fache vom Umsatz zu bezahlen. Bin gespannt
      1 Antwort?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
      schrieb am 08.12.14 17:11:54
      Beitrag Nr. 947 ()
      was meint ihr?

      Drehen die Herrschaften den Justierknopf morgen wieder nach oben? :rolleyes:
      3 Antworten?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
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      Börsengang von Rocket Internet - Top oder Flop?