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LNG, LPG etc. - Übersichtsthread


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Begriffe und/oder Benutzer

 

Habe mich in den letzten Monaten -parallel zum Ölpreisrückgang- ziemlich in das Thema reingewühlt und möchte jetzt, nachdem ich bisher den BG Group-company-Thread als Postingplatz "missbraucht" habe, einen eigenen Faden zu unternehmensübergreifenden Punkten aufmachen.

Kalkül wie früher: es verbessert die Chancen gute Investentscheidungen zu treffen und gemeinsam ist man stärker.



Grundsatzüberlegung und Scope:

Die verschiedenen Gase sind ein interessantes Thema, weil

* die Produktion stark ansteigt w-Fracking & zunehmender Öl/Gas-Mischproduktion
* über die Verflüssigung werden die Gase transportfähig, womit man Pipelines umgehen kann
* Gas ist der beste Komplementärbrennstoff zu Renewables
* Europa sollte sich von Russland unabhängiger machen
* Die Erzeugung von Gas aus Renewable-Strom könnte sich eines Tages als eine gute oder sogar die beste Speicherungsmöglichkeit erweisen



Beobachten würde ich gerne die ganze Wertschöpfungskette, von-bis:

Produktion

Verflüssigung

Transport

Regasification / Speicherung

bis zum Endverbraucher.


Würde mich freuen, wenn sich auch andere fürs Thema interessieren.
Einzelwerte
die ich interessant finde und/oder in unterschiedlichen Mengen im Portfolio habe:


Gastechnologie/Shipyards
Thread: GTT - (fast) Monopolist für LNG-Technik
Thread: Höegh - LNG-Spezialist
Thread: Technip to release Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2014 results on February 18, 2015
Thread: Notification in accordance with the Finnish Securities Market Act Chapter 9 § 5: The restructuring o (Wärtsilä)
Thread: Golar neue Chancen durch verstärkte Umwandlung von Gas in LNG
Thread: Keppel Corporation aus Singapur
Thread: Sembcorp Marine - Werft aus Singapur

Terminalprojekte
Thread: Öl, Erdgas: US-Erdgas bald gratis? Chancen für Value-Investoren! (Cheniere Energy)
Thread: Cheniere Energy Partners - betreibt Sabine Pass Terminal als MLP
Thread: Wer ist dabei? (LNG Ltd)

Pipeline-/Speicherbetreiber
Thread: Enagas - spanischer LNG-Player
Thread: Fluxys - belgischer Gasnetzbetreiber
Thread: Snam - italienischer Gasnetzbetreiber
Thread: Vopak - Neue Erholungswelle?
Thread: Spanisches Gas Natural vor milliardenschwerer Übernahme in Chile
Thread: Buckeye Partner - Tanklager- und Pipelinbetreiber
Thread: Kinder Morgan Inc. - jetzt auch an der Börse
Thread: Boardwalk Pipeline Partners - US-MLP

Gastankerbetreiber LNG (große)
Thread: Teekay LNG Partners - Flüssiggas MLP
Thread: Golar LNG Partners LP - LNG-MLP
Thread: Dynagas LNG Partners L.P. Increases Quarterly Cash Distribution for the Quarter Ended September 30,
Thread: GasLog Ltd. Reports Financial Results for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2014
Thread: GasLog Partners LP Reports Financial Results for the Three and Six Month Periods Ended June 30, 2014
Thread: Höegh LNG Partners
Thread: Nippon Yusen - Zeit für Schnäppchenjäger

andere Gas-Schiffe (LPG, kleine LBG, FSRU, etc.)
Thread: Gastanker
Thread: BW LPG - aus Norwegen
Thread: Dorian LPG - ein börsennotiertes Neubauprogramm
Thread: Navigator Holdings Ltd. Announces Date for the Release of Third Quarter 2014 Results, Conference Cal
Thread: StealthGas - griechischer LPG-shipper
Thread: Avance Gas- Gastanker

Gashandel/-vertrieb & Market Intelligence
Thread: BG Group verdient wegen geringerer Flüssiggas-Lieferungen weniger
Thread: Clarkson - Infodienstleister Schiffbranche
Thread: Brady PLC - Commodity-Software
Thread: Amerigas - US-MLP steueroptimiert
Thread: UGI Corp. - Gasflaschenlieferant


Die Kategorisierungen erheben keinen Anspruch auf Eindeutigkeit, mann kann sicher auch andere wählen.
aus dem Golar-LNG Q4-Bericht:
The average 4Q rate for

steam LNG Carriers in the short-term market is estimated to have been around $50,000-$55,000 per day
and $65,000-$70,000 per day for TFDE vessels.

Not all short-term deals were concluded on a full round trip basis, but rather included fuel only on ballast legs. Although chartering activity was consistent with that in 3Q, the 4Q market became acutely sensitive to timing and location. In many cases ships lay idle for significant periods with steam vessels managing only to achieve rates in the $30,000 range with limited re-positioning fees. In other cases, charterers experienced a lack of prompt availability of cold and compatible vessels, where some TFDE vessels rates reached $80-90,000 per day range on round trip voyages.


Es scheint bei den Schiffstypen unterschieden zu werden zwischen
Steam,
TFDE und neu
MEGI (habe ich bisher nur bei Teekay LNG gesehen)
schöner thread, freue mich auf konstuktive konversationen hier. :)
ich bin der meinung man sollte zum gas auch die brennstoffzellen branche miteinbeziehen.
Drewry: lower oil prices boost LPG shipping earnings
(von LNG world News)

LPG shipping earnings are forecast to remain buoyant on the back of low oil prices and the absence of fuel substitution, shipping consultancy Drewry said in its LPG Forecaster.

Low oil prices have not triggered the substitution of LPG as the fuel of industrial use, as feared by some analysts. As a result, LPG shipping demand has remained intact and low bunker prices have supported vessel earnings.

Drewry expects this trend to continue, as 60% of global consumption is residential whose demand is largely inelastic to oil price change. The remainder is largely consumed by petrochemical production and Drewry estimates that only 20% of the sector’s capacity is capable of switching away from LPG fuel. Historically, LPG consumption has proven remarkably stable in spite of oil price volatility.

Meanwhile, the fall in oil prices has lowered shipping’s fuel costs which have fed through into time charter equivalent earnings despite weakening freight rates. For example, Drewry estimates that lower fourth quarter bunker costs contributed an 11% boost to LPG TCE earnings for very large gas carriers on the Arabian Gulf-Japan route compared to the previous quarter. Over this period, average freight rates fell 26% to $85 per tonne.

A similar trend has been witnessed on coastal trades, with North West Europe-East Europe TCE earnings rising 22% over the same period despite lower freight rates.

“The implication is that LPG shipping has everything to gain from lower oil prices, despite unfounded fears that this may reduce cargo demand and so damage sector earnings,” said Shresth Sharma, senior analyst, gas shipping at Drewry. “While we do not anticipate VLGC freight rates reaching the highs of last year given the large number of vessels lined up for delivery, we expect bunker costs to remain low through 2015 which will help support LPG shipping earnings.”



Finde ich insoweit interessant, als dass die LPG-shipper derzeit wirklich niedrig bewertet werden. Gestern kam z.B. der Jahresbericht von Avance: KGV2014 ist 7,2...
Der LPG-Markt scheint bisher unbeeindruckt vom Ölpreis zu sein:
aus dem Q4-Bericht von BW LPG


"For this time of the year, Q1 2015 has so far been the historic strongest in terms of growth in the chartering
market. Supply, demand and infrastructure build-out suggest continued growth in 2015. 2016 sees fleet
expansion and the rate of export growth will dictate the overall impact on the chartering market, with longerterm
continuing growth expected. Beyond 2016, the supply"
BG: LNG market entering a period of supply growth
For the LNG market, 2015 will be marked by increasing volatility as new ‘waves’ of supply start adding volume together with new markets opening up, according to BG Group’s annual Global LNG Market Outlook.

Andrew Walker, BG Group Vice President of Global LNG, commented: “After four years of flat supply we are entering a period of supply growth. 2014 marked the start-up of a new wave of supply from Australia. This will be joined by the first volumes from the US Gulf of Mexico around the end of 2015. This new supply will be absorbed by continued growth in Asian demand, together with the creation of up to six new markets in 2015, further diversifying the LNG trade and opening up new sales opportunities.”

Walker said that while good growth in LNG imports into Asia in 2015 is visible, key influences that will affect demand include the rate of return of Japanese nuclear power plants, economic growth rates for China and South Korea, as well as when the new markets begin importing. Over the longer-term BG Group continues to expect LNG trade worldwide to exceed 400 million tonnes per year by 2025, representing an annual growth rate of around 5%, almost twice the rate of expected growth in global gas consumption.

Although the industry expects five new liquefaction trains and one FLNG production facility to start-up in 2015, Walker noted that “these will be towards the end of the year limiting incremental supply in 2015 to around 7 million tonnes. How the market responds to the growing volumes in 2016 and 2017 will be a key factor to watch. We expect the LNG market to become more volatile over the next few years as it responds to ‘lumpy’ supply and market side additions plus exogenous supply and demand factors.”

Walker explained that fewer final investment decisions will be taken in 2015 than previously expected, which will mean less LNG is available to the market at the end of the decade. This uncertainty brings into sharper focus the attractiveness of flexible supply portfolios which can respond to changing market dynamics.
Japan: spot LNG price drops to USD 7.6 per mmbtu in February
The average price of spot-LNG imported into Japan that was contracted in February 2015 was at $7.6 per mmbtu on DES basis, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) said in a statement.

The average price of spot-LNG imported into Japan that arrived in February 2015 fell to $10.7 compared to the January price that averaged $13.9 per mmbtu.

Only spot LNG cargoes are taken into account in this assessment, excluding short, medium and long-term contract cargoes, as well as those linked to a particular price index.

Japan imported 87.73 million tonnes of LNG in the fiscal year ended in March, up 1 percent compared to the same period a year ago.
60% Preisrückgang sind schon ein Pfund...:
Platts: April spot LNG prices to Asia keep dropping


Prices of spot liquefied natural gas for April delivery to northeast Asia continued their downward slide, falling 59.8% year over year to average $7.279 per million British thermal units, according to the latest Platts Japan/Korea Marker data for month-ahead delivery.

The figure reflects the daily JKM assessed between February 16 and March 13 expressed as a monthly average.

The year-over-year drop was largely attributed to weaker-than-expected demand from buyers in northeast Asia, where both electricity generation and utility gas usage are down on fairly mild temperatures over the winter season, and slowing economic growth. The fall followed the record year-over-year plunge of 61.7% seen the previous trading month.

Month over month, the April JKM dipped a more marginal 2.1%, suggesting that the downward spiral in prices was beginning to lose momentum.

The JKM had opened the trading month at $6.725/MMBtu on assessment date February 16 before beginning a steady uptick that saw the marker gain 97.5 cents over the period to close at $7.70/MMBtu on assessment date March 13.

This was the first sustained period of increases for the JKM since the beginning of 2015, although the market remained in backwardation, as demand is expected to slow further with the advent of northern hemisphere spring and warmer temperatures.

The U.K. National Balancing Point onshore gas market was seen to be providing some support to Asian spot prices, as NBP had been trading at a premium to JKM for the first half of the trading month.

“This afforded suppliers and traders the opportunity to deliver Atlantic-loading cargoes into the premium European onshore gas markets, while backfilling requirements in the Asian Pacific basin with cheaper spot cargoes,” said Stephanie Wilson, managing editor of Asia LNG at Platts. “This effectively tightened availability of cargoes in the Asian spot market as traders and sellers bought spot cargoes from various liquefaction projects, driving prices higher.”

At the beginning of the trading month, the NBP had been trading 40 cents above the JKM, but the spread narrowed as NBP prices slipped on warmer temperatures, while JKM trended higher as supply in the Asia Pacific basin tightened. The April JKM ended the trading month 80 cents higher than the NBP.

The effects of the higher NBP price were also felt in India, where importers looking to secure deliveries into the west of the country were forced to bid above other Asian buyers in order to attract cargoes from the Atlantic and Middle East.

Meanwhile, the price of possible competing fuel thermal coal decreased 11.5% year over year, while fuel oil was down 42.4% year over year.
PIRA: Asian demand outlook remains weak
PIRA Energy Group said it believes that the Asian demand outlook remains essentially weak and will not begin to turn around, even in the face of some of the lowest LNG prices in over a year.

PIRA has pared down its demand growth outlook for the year. More LNG will be coming to Europe in the months ahead, which will backstop production losses in the Netherlands and feed renewed demand for gas in the power sector, now that spot and oil-indexed prices are lower.



According to PIRA, it is becoming clearer that the demand side of the gas fundamentals equation is becoming stronger, which does not surprise it given that PIRA has been forecasting 7% growth for Europe in 2015 since late last year.

The next major event to emerge in the gas market will be the beginning of peak maintenance season in Norway. The first major cuts will emerge in the second week of April, which helps to explain the 2-3p/th (€1-1.5/MWh) backwardation with the May contract.

The maintenance pattern has been set for some time, so no surprises appear to face the market in the weeks ahead, PIRA added.
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