The less bumpy way to ride e-commerce = Rakuten

Strategic Drivers for the Undervaluation

The fact that the market values the Rakuten Group so conservatively despite record revenues is mainly due to the historical burden from the mobile business, where, however, a turning point is now occurring:

• The turning point at Rakuten Mobile: The MNO segment (mobile) has been the primary loss-maker for years and has heavily weighed on the balance sheets. In 2026, however, the mobile division is seeing continuously decreasing losses and is moving towards operational profitability (EBITDA break-even).

• Strong cash-generating segments: The core business in e-commerce (Rakuten Ichiba) and the highly profitable fintech segment (Rakuten Bank, Rakuten Securities, Rakuten Pay) are growing steadily at double-digit rates and easily absorb the remaining mobile investments.

• First net profits in years: In the summer of 2026, the Rakuten Group reported its first consolidated net profit in six years. This shows that the operating leverage of the ecosystem is finally taking effect.

Conclusion & Analyst Consensus: Since the major investment phases in infrastructure expansion are complete and the customer base remains strongly tied to the ecosystem through the cross-selling points system, financial analysts mostly rate the stock as a "Buy." The average analyst price target is around 890 JPY, which compared to the current price level (about 630 JPY) implies significant upside potential of over 35%.

My own price target for the end of 2027 is 1500 JPY and my price target for the end of 2028 is 2000 JPY.

Rakuten Group Overall Assessment (as of October 2026) - Undervalued

• Market Capitalization: Rakuten Group is currently valued on the Tokyo Stock Exchange at about 9.04 billion USD.

• Revenue Multiple: The entire group is trading at a historically low revenue multiple of around 0.8x. The company's twelve-month revenue amounts to about 17 billion USD with an EBITDA of around 3 billion USD.

Financial Development of the Advertising Business 2026

Rakuten's advertising segment has shown strong growth momentum so far in 2026:

• Q2 2026: JPY 65.6 billion (+15.6% YoY)

• Q1 2026: JPY 61.9 billion (+13.0% YoY)

Key Growth Drivers in the Ecosystem

• AI Integration: Rakuten attributes the revenue increase mainly to AI-powered search functions and personalized banner ads on platforms like Rakuten Ichiba and Rakuten Travel.

• Data Utilization: Linking user data from the mobile sector (Rakuten Mobile DPI data) optimizes ad delivery across the entire group.

Vodafone Doubts SpaceX's Europe Play

At the Network X conference in Vienna, Vodafone Group Ventures Director Tim Boddy questioned whether SpaceX could replicate its U.S. wireless strategy in Europe. "It's not obvious to me that SpaceX would do the same in Europe as it did in the U.S.," he said, citing differences in spectrum markets and regulation, as well as Europe's low mobile prices.

Boddy is also vice chairman of Satellite Connect Europe, Vodafone's joint venture with AST. He said that the venture's core network and radio infrastructure are on the ground in Europe and controlled by the Luxembourg-based company. GSM Association chief regulatory officer John Giusti also rejected the idea that satellites would replace mobile networks: "I don't anticipate it doing that."

Debt and financial metrics of non-Fintech

The debt and financial metrics for the Rakuten Group's non-FinTech segment improved significantly over the course of 2026. Management is following a strict deleveraging strategy to reduce the debt burden from the costly mobile network build-out.

Non-FinTech Debt Metrics (as of October 2026

• Leverage ratio (Net financial debt / EBITDA):

The leverage ratio for the non-FinTech sector was 6.2x in June 2026.

The official target for the full year 2026 is around 6.0x.

By December 2027, a target of 5.0x or lower is planned.

• Net debt: The group’s net financial debt stands at about 8 billion USD. The average interest rate (coupon) on the bonds, mainly denominated in USD, is between 4.5% and 5.0%.

Rakuten and ShopBack

The most important facts about ShopBack's valuation, the connections with Rakuten, and the current status in October 2026:

Current valuation of ShopBack (October 2026)

• Unicorn status in the private market: The official valuation of the ShopBack Group remains around 1.4 billion USD. This figure is mainly based on the last major Series F funding rounds (led, among others, by 65 Equity Partners [Temasek] and the Australian Westpac Banking Corporation).

• Potential IPO: The company recorded revenue growth of over 30% in the fiscal year ending March 2026 and achieved six consecutive quarters of adjusted EBITDA profitability. ShopBack is actively talking to banks (such as Macquarie Capital) and is reportedly preparing for an IPO on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX).

The role of Rakuten in ShopBack

• Early Investor: Rakuten Capital came on board in April 2019 as a co-lead investor (together with EV Growth) in a $45 million round for ShopBack. Since then, Rakuten has held significant stakes and even has a member on ShopBack’s Board of Directors, Amit Patel (CEO of Ebates/Rakuten).

• Direct Business Partnerships: Beyond just investing, the two platforms work closely together. For example, the travel portal Rakuten Travel is integrated as a major affiliate partner directly into ShopBack’s system, so users can earn cashback on Rakuten bookings through ShopBack.

Child NISA accounts of Rakuten Securites

10:17

https://www.ariva.de/forum/rakuten-wesentlich-besser-als-roc…

Rakuten Securities decides to offer products with zero (free) trust fees!

- Expanded lineup of exclusive products for 'Kodomo NISA', coming soon –

October 9, 2026

Rakuten Securities has officially announced the launch of a new lineup of exclusive investment trust products featuring "zero trust fees" (0.00% per year).

This move directly responds to the fierce competition in Japan's retail brokerage sector as platforms prepare for the launch of the new "Child NISA" (Kodomo NISA) program set to begin in January 2027.

Key Details of the Announcement

• Target Program: These zero-fee investment trusts are designed exclusively for the upcoming Child NISA account type.

•The Fee Structure: The core management fee, known as the trust fee, will be set to 0.00%. This effectively eliminates the ongoing management cost usually deducted from the fund's net asset value.

• Market Context: This announcement follows a similar competitive move by its main rival, SBI Securities, which earlier unveiled its own 0.00% trust fee product called the "SBI Zero All Country Index Fund" (nicknamed "Zero-Can").

About the New Child NISA (Starting 2027)

The revamped tax-free savings program expands wealth-building options for children aged 17 and under:

• Annual Investment Limit: Up to 600,000 yen per year.

• Lifetime Limit: A maximum tax-free holding limit of 6 million yen per child.

• Holding Period: Unlimited tax-free holding duration, with assets automatically transitioning to an adult NISA once the child turns 18.

You should have bought before the shortsquezze will start.

Rakuten had invested in Carousell

As of October 2026, Carousell’s official valuation stands at US$1.1 billion, maintaining its position as one of Singapore's prominent private unicorns on Dealroom. This valuation was established during its US$100 million funding round led by STIC Investments.

While no new funding rounds have altered this figure, the company reached a significant financial turning point in mid-2026, strengthening its fundamentals ahead of any future public exit.

Key Financial & Operational Milestones

•First Profitable Milestone: In July 2026, Carousell announced it achieved positive EBITDA (adjusted operating profit) for the first time.

•Revenue Growth: For the latest financial period, revenue jumped 18% year-on-year to US$141 million, nearly tripling what it generated five years prior.

•The Recommerce Shift: The company's business model pivot is paying off. Managed "recommerce" (authenticated resale, trade-ins, and luxury sales) surged 40%, accounting for 45% of total revenue and out classifieds. Carousell now also operates 29 physical retail stores.

•AI Integration: For its FY2026 strategy, management is focusing heavily on AI as a "force multiplier" to prevent marketplace fraud and auto-generate item listings in under three seconds.

There is no publicly available data on the exact percentage stake of Rakuten in the online marketplace platform Carousell for October 2026. Although Rakuten (mainly through its investment arm Rakuten Ventures) is one of the earliest and most important investors in Carousell – having led, among others, the seed round (2013), the Series B round (2016), and co-led the Series C round (2018) – the exact ownership stakes of the individual venture capital investors have never been fully disclosed. What is known is that after a merger in 2019, the Telenor Group became the largest external minority shareholder of Carousell with around 32%. Since then, other major investors like Naver and STIC Investments have joined, which has affected the shares of the earlier ones.

My advice for legal shortsellers and not legalnaked shortsellers: Go panic first!

Short selling activities for Rakuten Group, Inc. (TSE: 4755) stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange are considered high, according to Financial Times market data.

Exact daily figures for outstanding short positions are centrally regulated in Japan and provided by the Japan Exchange Group (JPX). The Tokyo Stock Exchange publishes updated reports on this every trading day around 5:00 PM local time. However, since these data are subject to dynamic reporting obligations for market participants (reporting required for a net short position of 0.5% of capital or more), the absolute numbers fluctuate daily.

The key AI developments at Rakuten in 2026

• The Rakuten Super Agent: At the heart of the current strategy is the new digital personal assistant. It connects services like Rakuten Ichiba (shopping), travel bookings, and banking in a single system.

Through an intelligent "memory function," the AI remembers personal preferences, family details, or past purchases to independently create hyper-personalized travel plans, to-do lists, and optimized discount and points suggestions (Rakuten Points).

• Ichiko – The AI Shop Manager: For merchants on the platform, Rakuten is rolling out the AI assistant Ichiko. Merchants can create 24/7 avatars that are available around the clock and are based on their own merchant personality and specific product knowledge. Instead of delivering standardized web data, Ichiko analyzes the buyer's profile to provide tailored shopping advice in chat.

• Physical AI and On-Device Intelligence: Together with partners like NVIDIA and Dell Technologies, Rakuten is currently working on solutions where AI avatars and edge computing bridge the gap between online research and in-store shopping to relieve sales staff in their daily work.

Rakuten TV accelerates international enterprise business expansion into the United States, Middle East and Japan

Growth of Rakuten TV Enterprise division underpins expansion beyond Europe for the first time, announced at MIPCOM 2026

Cannes, France – October 12, 2026, MIPCOM 2026: Rakuten TV, one of Europe’s leading streaming platforms, today announced at MIPCOM its international expansion of FAST services for enterprise customers, with the progressive launch of its offering in new strategic markets: the United States, the Middle East, and Japan¹. The international expansion marks the first time the Barcelona-based Rakuten TV has extended its footprint beyond Europe, via its Rakuten TV Enterprise division.

The announcement was made today by Rakuten TV CEO Cédric Dufour during his panel ‘FAST Beyond Borders: Rakuten TV on What It Takes to Scale Into New Global Markets’ at MIPCOM’s Innovation Lab.

The growth into new international territories comes two years after Rakuten TV unveiled ‘Rakuten TV Enterprise’ at MIPCOM 2024, marking the next phase in the growth of a service created to help content owners, distributors and other industry partners launch, manage and monetise FAST channels and content-focused video applications. Since its launch, Rakuten TV Enterprise has developed into a broader suite of services spanning O&O channel distribution, technical integration, content and channel management, and monetisation – creating new opportunities for partners to bring FAST propositions to market and scale them across different territories.

Alongside the growth of Enterprise, Rakuten TV has continued to produce and exclusively distribute high quality owned & operated (‘O&O’) FAST channels, sourcing content from Hollywood studios and leading local broadcasters and rightsholders. This has resulted in more than 120 O&O channels across Europe, further strengthening the content, editorial and distribution expertise that underpins the Enterprise offering.

Rakuten TV’s proven experience across the European FAST market has been instrumental in enabling its international expansion, providing the foundation for taking the broader Enterprise suite of services into new markets. Combining more than 15 years of experience in proprietary technology with expertise developed across Europe in content, distribution, editorial and monetisation, Rakuten TV Enterprise provides an end-to-end suite of services tailored to the specific needs of each partner and market. From distributing O&O and partner channels to providing the technical integration and infrastructure required to operate FAST services, Enterprise enables content owners, broadcasters, platforms and other industry partners to access the capabilities they need to launch, manage and scale their streaming propositions. This proven capability is now being made available to international partners as Rakuten TV expands its footprint beyond Europe.

Cédric Dufour, CEO and President, Rakuten TV, said:

“Expanding Rakuten TV into the US, Middle East and Japan through our enterprise offerings marks a significant new chapter for the business, as we bring our streaming expertise, technology and infrastructure to new markets around the world. FAST is a fast-moving market, and over the last two years Rakuten TV Enterprise has grown significantly since we launched it with the vision of helping content and entertainment companies bring their FAST and streaming propositions to market and scale them internationally. That growth has been instrumental in enabling this next phase of international expansion, building on our experience in Europe and strengthening our ability to support partners across the streaming ecosystem. As we extend our international footprint, we are opening up new opportunities for Rakuten TV and our partners alike.”

The expansion includes the launch of two Rakuten TV Enterprise services in three new markets: the licensing of channels in the United States and the Middle East, and technical integration in Japan.

United States: editorial differentiation in the world’s most mature FAST market

The United States represents the most developed and competitive FAST market in the world with a growing volume of channels spanning a broad range of content for viewers. Against this backdrop, Rakuten TV is expanding its presence with the launch of some of its exclusive O&O FAST channels, including Rakuten TV Comedy and Rakuten TV Action. Bringing together Hollywood productions and European titles, the premium movie channels offering is designed to complement the existing FAST landscape, with a distinctive content mix that avoids overlap with other channels available in the market. The channels are now available on the TCLtv+ app, with further platform launches to follow, extending Rakuten TV’s reach and bringing its curated FAST offering to new audiences.

Dufour explains:

“As the US is a much more mature FAST market, the sheer volume of channels already available means it is important to offer audiences something distinctive. We have taken a highly considered approach to developing our movie channels, analysing existing channel catalogues to identify opportunities and ensure there is no title overlap. The result is a differentiated mix of Hollywood productions and European titles that complements the existing offer while bringing something new to viewers.”

Middle East: premium Western cinema for a region undergoing digital growth.

Having identified a specific opportunity within the Middle East’s FAST ecosystem – the availability of Western cinema channels – Rakuten TV is preparing the launch of two FAST channels in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

By the end of this year, Rakuten TV Top Movies and Rakuten TV Action will be available through TCLtv+ and TCL Channel in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and on LG Channels in the United Arab Emirates, featuring English-language content with subtitles adapted to the local market. In addition to offering some of the best Hollywood blockbusters, Rakuten TV is also exploring launching multiple genre channels or single-IP series, relevant to the Middle Eastern market.

Dufour adds:

“As the Middle East experiences a growth surge in FAST channels, we have applied our experience as one of the pioneers in developing FAST movie channels in Europe to create an editorial proposition tailored to local audiences. By combining our understanding of the market with carefully selected content and major cinematic productions, we are able to offer a differentiated channel proposition that complements the existing FAST landscape and brings new viewing opportunities to audiences in the Middle East.”

Japan: a strategic expansion demonstrating Rakuten TV Enterprise’s technological capabilities

As part of Rakuten TV’s international expansion, Japan represents a strategic step and an example of how Rakuten TV Enterprise is evolving beyond content distribution.

Rakuten TV Enterprise, offered by Rakuten TV in Europe, has been selected by Rakuten Group, the Japan-based global technology company that owns Rakuten TV, as the technical integrator to deliver FAST channels to its FAST platform ‘R Channels’ in Japan.

This collaboration demonstrates the evolution of Rakuten TV Enterprise as a technology partner, combining technical expertise with FAST ecosystem knowledge and reinforcing the company’s ability to operate and scale FAST services in new markets.

Dufour added:

“Our experience in Europe has demonstrated that Rakuten TV Enterprise can operate as a trusted technical partner at scale, managing the technology, infrastructure and FAST expertise required to bring complex channel environments to life. We are now taking that proven capability to international partners, providing the technical foundations they need to launch and scale FAST services in new markets. This gives partners greater access to our expertise while giving us a scalable model to support further international growth.”

Rakuten TV Enterprise: a new phase of international growth

The expansion announced at MIPCOM 2026 marks a new chapter for Rakuten TV Enterprise, demonstrating the company’s ability to apply its expertise across content, technology and distribution to new international markets.

Through Enterprise, Rakuten TV is strengthening its role as a strategic partner for content owners, telecommunications operators and TV manufacturers as they develop and roll out their FAST strategies, providing the technology, infrastructure and expertise to support their growth across the streaming ecosystem.

Rakuten TV currently operates more than 500 FAST channels across 43 territories, alongside its Rakuten TV app and portfolio of O&O FAST channels. This scale and experience provide a strong foundation for the continued growth of Enterprise and its expansion into new international markets.

The company will continue to drive the growth of the Rakuten TV app and its O&O FAST channels across multiple platforms and markets, while expanding its Enterprise offering and exploring new opportunities to collaborate with partners across the streaming ecosystem.

Dufour added:

“This expansion represents only the beginning of what we can achieve with Rakuten TV Enterprise. Our experience gives us a strong foundation to help partners navigate the fast-moving streaming landscape and unlock new opportunities in FAST. As we enter more markets, our focus will be on combining that expertise together with a deep understanding of local audiences to build propositions that deliver real value for our partners.”

https://www.enterprise.rakuten.tv/press-release/rakuten-tv-i…

Money Bridge for Minor Accounts

October 13, 2026

For minor accounts at Rakuten Bank, there are significant advantages when combined with Rakuten Securities. By linking the accounts through the "Money Bridge" service, even accounts of minors now benefit from improved conditions that were previously often reserved for adults.

Although the traditional "Child NISA" (Junior NISA) system in Japan was discontinued for new business at the end of 2023, account linking for minors remains extremely attractive for automated saving and investing through a regular minor's securities account.

The 2 key advantages of "Money Bridge" for minors

By activating Money Bridge, the bank account (Rakuten Bank) and the securities account (Rakuten Securities) are seamlessly connected:

• Preferential interest rate for daily allowance (Preferential Interest Rate): The balance in the regular savings account (Ordinary Savings Account) at Rakuten Bank receives a significantly higher interest rate than the standard rate when the accounts are linked.

• Automatic matching (Sweep function): When a securities purchase is due, the money is automatically and free of charge transferred from the bank account to the securities account. Any uninvested balance in the securities account is automatically transferred back to the bank account at the end of the day to immediately generate the higher interest rate again.

Additional to my last posting

Rakuten Group owning 111,822,080 Rakuten Bank shares with voting-rights and 181,470,943 Rakuten Bank shares with non-voting rights (but with strict economic parity with common stock, meaning their intrinsic financial value is equivalent to the bank's listed shares with voting rights).

Dangerous for Short Sellers

If you are considering shorting Rakuten or want to hedge existing short positions, you should keep the following factors in mind:

• The risk of a short squeeze: Analyst firms like Macquarie rated Rakuten as 'Outperform' with a price target of 1,100 JPY in late summer, as they believe the worst is over. If the integration of the FinTech division releases synergies faster than expected, a strong price increase could force short sellers to cover their positions.

• Refinancing in focus: Rakuten is trying to raise fresh capital of 360 billion yen through new bonds in October 2026 (with coupons between 3.8% and 4.6%). If this placement goes smoothly, it takes pressure off the stock.

Rakuten Bank launches 25th Anniversary Commemorative High-Interest Time Deposit Campaign for corporate and personal business accounts 2-year yen time deposit, pre-tax annual 1.675%

https://www.rakuten-bank.co.jp/press/2026/261013.html

User reports show no current problems with Rakuten Mobile

downdetector.jp/en/status/rakuten-mobile/

Rakuten is strategically considering a US IPO for its profitable finance and credit card division. This move follows a trend among major Japanese tech companies, who are listing their fintech subsidiaries directly on US financial markets – particularly the NASDAQ – to achieve maximum valuations.

Rakuten’s move is largely influenced by the developments and success of competitors like PayPay (SoftBank): PayPay (SoftBank) as a trailblazer on the NASDAQ

The Japanese payment giant PayPay, in which SoftBank Group holds a significant stake, is considered a direct model for Rakuten’s US ambitions.

• Completed IPO: PayPay’s US listing was successfully carried out on the NASDAQ in March 2026.

• Key figures: The company aimed to issue around 55 million shares to raise about 1.1 billion US dollars. The total valuation of the fintech firm reached up to 13.4 billion US dollars.

• Strategic Background: SoftBank urgently used the fresh capital from the PayPay IPO to create financial leeway – among other things, the company had previously shouldered a massive $40 billion loan for AI investments (like OpenAI).

Rakuten's Plans for the US Business Spurred by the momentum in the Japanese fintech sector, Rakuten wanted a similar path for its credit card division:

• Early Preparation Phase: Initial concrete plans for a US listing or a potential strategic partial sale leaked after the Japanese major bank Mizuho had already acquired a 15% stake in Rakuten's card business for around $1.1 billion.

• Goal: Rakuten operates one of Japan's largest credit card systems, deeply integrated into its own e-commerce ecosystem. A US listing is intended to boost global visibility and release capital for the ongoing competition in Japan's digital ecosystem.

With the reorganization of the fintech division, it won’t be the IPO of Rakuten Card in the US that will be an option anymore, but rather the IPO of Rakuten Bank, into which Rakuten Card and Rakuten Securities have been integrated. In my opinion, this could easily be done through some of Rakuten’s 181 million non-voting shares, which can be converted into voting shares. The proceeds from this IPO would then flow to Rakuten Group.

For example: 25 million non-voting shares Rakuten Bank shares, converted in voting shares, coold result by a share-price of $ 40 in amount of $ 1 billion for Rakuten Group.

Rakuten TV expands international enterprise business

October 12, 2026

Rakuten TV, the European streaming platforms, has announced the international expansion of its FAST services for enterprise customers, with the progressive launch of its offering in new strategic markets: the US, the Middle East, and Japan. It marks the first time the Barcelona-based Rakuten TV has extended its footprint beyond Europe, via its Rakuten TV Enterprise division.

The announcement was made by Rakuten TV CEO Cédric Dufour during his FAST Beyond Borders: Rakuten TV on What It Takes to Scale Into New Global Markets panel at MIPCOM’s Innovation Lab.

The growth into new international territories comes two years after Rakuten TV unveiled Rakuten TV Enterprise at MIPCOM 2024, marking the next phase in the growth of a service created to help content owners, distributors and other industry partners launch, manage and monetise FAST channels and content-focused video applications. Alongside the growth of Enterprise, Rakuten TV has continued to produce and exclusively distribute high quality owned & operated (O&O) FAST channels, sourcing content from Hollywood studios and local broadcasters and rightsholders. This has resulted in more than 120 O&O channels across Europe, further strengthening the content, editorial and distribution expertise that underpins the Enterprise offering.

https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/10/12/rakuten-tv-ex…