Demonetization - kann/wird man cash abschaffen? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[R-BgO]

nachdem ich das indische Beispiel schon in verschiedenen Threads erwähnt hatte, aber erstens nicht mehr weiß wo und zweitens das Thema an sich wichtig genug ist, lege ich mal einen eigenen Thread an:


Im November hatte Modi über Nacht 86% des Bargeldumlaufs in Indien für ungültig erklären lassen, angeblich als Schwarzgeldbekämpfung.

Habe damals gesagt, dass sich Wolfgang Schäuble den Verlauf sicher genau begucken wird.



Jetzt sieht es so aus, dass es doch mehr unerwünschte Nebenwirkungen gab, als zuerst angenommen: https://fee.org/articles/indias-demonetization-effort-has-de…


Auszug:

"The debate over demonetization was revived this month (September 2017) after the Reserve Bank of India finally announced the count of returned currency. It announced that 99 percent of the discontinued notes, Rs 15.28 trillion out of Rs 15.44 trillion, had been returned. As Vivek Kaul has noted, “The conventional explanation for this is that most people who had black money found other people, who did not have black money, to deposit their savings into the banking system for them.”

The trivial size of unreturned currency, of course, obliterates BDK’s projection of a government seigniorage windfall.

What about BDK’s other projected source of revenue, the 50% tax on acknowledged black deposits? Whereas in BDK’s scenario, black currency holders would make Rs2 trillion in voluntary-disclosure deposits, which would yield Rs 1 trillion in revenue, the actual collections under the scheme were reported in April at Rs 23 billion, or 2.3% of the BDK-imagined sum. Such paltry revenues mean that demonetization, from the fiscal perspective, was all pain and no gain.

The accumulating evidence on economic growth, meanwhile, has become damning. Between July and September 2016, India’s GDP grew 7.53 percent. Between January and March 2017 it grew 5.72 percent. Former head of the Reserve Bank of India Raghuram Rajan, now returned to the University of Chicago, links the drop to demonetization: “Let us not mince words about it — GDP has suffered. The estimates I have seen range from 1 to 2 percentage points, and that's a lot of money — over Rs2 lakh crore [i.e. trillion] and maybe approaching Rs2.5 lakh crore." Kaul adds that GDP does not well capture the size of the informal cash sector, where the losses from demonetization were greatest."

[R-BgO]

im Moment ist das Thema ein bisschen aus der Mode gekommen

[R-BgO]

sleeper mode