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Ausenco-Studie verdoppelt Produktionspotenzial der First Cobalt Raffinerie | Diskussion im Forum

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Es handelt sich um einen automatisiert angelegten Thread zur Nachricht "Ausenco-Studie verdoppelt Produktionspotenzial der First Cobalt Raffinerie" vom Autor IRW Press

Ausenco-Studie verdoppelt Produktionspotenzial der First Cobalt Raffinerie TORONTO, ON - (28. Mai 2019) - First Cobalt Corp. (TSX-V: FCC, ASX: FCC, OTCQX: FTSSF) (das "Unternehmen" - http://www.commodity-tv.net/c/search_adv/?v=298892) freut sich …

Lesen Sie den ganzen Artikel: Ausenco-Studie verdoppelt Produktionspotenzial der First Cobalt Raffinerie
was soll man dazu sagen? wenn die erste tonne verkauft wirst steht da vor dem komma eine 1 oder 2! davon bin ich absolut überzeugt.
Nettes Interview

First Cobalt (TSX.V:FCC & OTCQX:FTSSF) released two developments at its refinery over the past two weeks. Glencore agreed to provide feedstock and funding for the refinery restart, while Ausenco completed a study that outlined a potential doubling of the overall capacity. Trent Mell, President and CEO of First Cobalt joined me to discuss the importance of both news releases.


Nette Berechnung zum Unternehmenswert, Kopiert aus Stockhouse.

Refinery revenue, Glencore, Jervois, ICP Thoughts
*All prices in USD

Today’s prices ($34,000/T) * 5000T = $170M
Future price ($40,000/T) * 5000T = $200M
Future price ($45,000/T) * 5000T = $225M
Future price ($50,000/T) * 5000T = $250M

Based on expert predictions, I believe Co prices will be significantly higher 1-2 yrs out. Using $45,000/T, the refined Co revenue/yr would be ~$225M. If Glencore were to sell their unrefined Cobalt to a Chinese refiner (as they have been), they’d receive ~60% of that revenue ($135M) and the refiner would be left with the remaining 40%. ($90M). Loaning FCC the $37.5M to re-start and expand the refinery is a fantastic investment for Glencore. Sounds as though they will enter into a tolling agreement by which they would still own the end product. I believe Glencore is in discussions for an offtake agreement with a large US EV maker (speculation) looking for that air tight supply chain.

I believe the FCC/Glencore deal would look something like this: Glencore lays out the $37.5 to restart the refinery. They’d cover the operating costs, which I believe could be around ~$20M/yr under the new expanded scenario (the refinery report did not detail this new scenario). They stipulate a 2yr “payback”. So they’d be laying out ($37.5M/2 + $20M = $38.75M + FCC’s cut) to keep the product which will be worth an extra $90M (vs them continuing to sell to a refiner). I believe because of the funding they will be providing, the tolling agreement will see Glencore keep a significantly larger % of that $90 (0% selling to Chinese refiner). That said, FCC will have not had to lay out any of their own cash. I believe FCC would net in the ballpark of $30M/yr over those first 2 years. This deal would see Glencore increase their net annual profit by $21.25M on that 5000T. IF the tolling agreement were to continue beyond those first 2 years, FCC’s net annual profit from the refinery would increase to ~$48.75M as the debt is now paid and Glencore’s $21.25M would stay roughly the same (FCC= 68.75M - $20M opex = $48.75M, GC = $21.25M).

A 10x earnings multiple (low for a growth company) would see a FCC market capitalization of US$488M = CAD$657M or about 10X current.

I also beleive FCC purchased the ECS shares as much more than a quick flip when the JRV takeover goes through. I believe they have been in talks with the Jervois boys and their share purchase was a means to help guarantee JRV the boys they need for the deal to close. The JRV team is chock full of big miners. They are much more likely to get ICP off the ground than ECS. FCC and JRV will then find synergies between the 2 mining operations. Being that the 2 mines are in such close proximity, there are a number of possibilities here (combine companies, share costs on a common refinery, equipment sharing....). It makes a lot more sense for FCC to team up with actual mining guys (check out JRV management).

This is is my take on things to this point. It obviously includes some speculation on my part. But I’ve speculated in these areas based on what I believe to be fairly obvious opportunities for all companies.

The market is certainly not awake to the potential here and are treating FCC’s refinery as greenfield and speculative. The market is treating this like the refinery needs to get permitted and built. However, the bulk of the work there is already complete. Something that would normally take 5-6 yrs is only 18-24 months out. And with the GC MOU announcement, the path to cash flow has become far less speculative. There is a fantastic opportunity to take advantage of this sleepy market and I aim to do so. GLTA

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