Japan - Makro

24.1.
Japan Bond Yields, Bank Shares Jump on BOJ Rate Hike Bets
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-bonds-fall-growing-v…
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As traders increased bets that the Bank of Japan will push ahead in the next few months with its first rate hike since 2007, 10-year note yields climbed as much as 10.5 basis points. Shares of Japanese banks, who have struggled through decades of deflation, rose on expectations higher interest rates will improve their lending margins.

A rate increase by the BOJ will be another sign that the world’s third-biggest economy is coming out of an extended period of sluggish demand since an asset-price bubble burst in the early 1990’s, that ultimately prompted the bank to unleash radical stimulus measures.
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15.1.
Japan Plans These Stock Market Steps in 2024 to Lure More Buyers
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-plans-stock-market-step…
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Japan’s stock market is unveiling a slew of measures this year aimed at making it more attractive for retail investors and global funds, including an expansion of the tax-exempt retirement savings account program.

The new Nippon Individual Savings Account, or NISA, already appears to drawing in more individual investors, according to Rakuten Securities Inc. President Yuji Kusunoki. Traders bullish on Japanese shares are hoping that the revised system and other steps will help extend last-year’s equity rally that saw the Nikkei 225 and Topix index beat major global peers to touch 34-year highs. Here are some of those measures that share investors are watching.

The government is increasing the amount investors can put into NISA and also making it easier to put money in the accounts, in an effort to boost investments by households in one of the world’s fastest aging populations.
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Antwort auf faultcode 10.01.24 12:35:35 Uhr

..und noch mehr Geld nach Japan:

10.1.
China’s Bedraggled Stock Investors Flock to Surging Japan ETFs
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-bedraggled-stock-invest…
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Activity in the AMC Nomura fund has swelled since the middle of last year as mom-and-pop investors turned their sights to China’s neighbor while stocks at home showed no signs of revival. Japan’s Topix Index rose 25% last year to a 34-year high as China’s CSI 300 Index dropped 11% amid concerns about the country’s economic recovery, geopolitical challenges and troubles in the property sector.
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10.1.
Japan Shares Beat Asia Peers With Indexes Hitting 34-Year Highs
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-shares-beat-asia-peers-…
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Japanese shares outperformed regional peers on Wednesday with the broad Topix index climbing to the highest in 34 years, as the weaker yen and falling bond yields fueled bullish investor sentiment.
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The jump in the Nikkei and Topix suggests that investor optimism toward Japanese shares remains strong this year after both gauges advanced more than 25% in 2023 to mark their best performance in a decade. The measures were among the world’s biggest gainers last year as authorities pushed companies to improve shareholder value, decades-long deflation faded, and a weak yen supported exporter earnings.

“We think Japan markets could continue to remain attractive for now, although the returns may not be as strong as those in 2023,” said Charu Chanana, market strategist for Saxo Capital Markets Pte.

Potential headwinds for Japanese equities this year include expectations of the Bank of Japan tweaking its super-easy monetary policy and possible yen appreciation, Chanana said. But “both seem to be delayed,” after a strong earthquake on Jan. 1 and weak economic data, as well as uncertainties about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-cut outlook, she said.
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15.12.
Japan Factory PMI Slides Back to Pandemic-Era Level Ahead of BOJ
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-factory-pmi-slides-back…
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Activity in Japan’s factory sector deteriorated to a level matching a three-year low, a pessimistic data point for Bank of Japan officials to mull when they meet to decide policy next week.

The au Jibun Bank’s purchasing managers index of activity in Japan’s manufacturing sector dipped to 47.7 in December, the lowest since February and matching the level back in September 2020, when the economy was starting to emerge from the pandemic. The gauge has languished below the 50 mark that separates a contraction from an expansion for seven consecutive months.

The reading for the service sector advanced to 52, helping to boost the composite index to 50.4.
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14.11.
Japan’s Largest Banks to Buy Back Shares After Profit Soars
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mufg-buy-back-2-6-074053118.h…
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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. announced a $2.6 billion share buyback program on Tuesday after fiscal second-quarter profit tripled.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. raised its full-year net income forecast and said it plans to spend as much as 150 billion yen ($989 million) repurchasing stock.

A day earlier, Mizuho Financial Group Inc. boosted its annual dividend guidance along with its earnings target.

The results reflect the benefits of the banks’ overseas expansions, which have allowed them to generate earnings that have increased in yen terms once repatriated home. Japan’s currency has slid about 25% in the past two years against the dollar.
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6.11.
WSJ: BOJ Gov. Ueda Suggests Low Possibility of Negative Rates Ending This Year
The BOJ governor said Japan was making progress toward stable inflation
https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-unlikely-to-fall-back-to-…
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The likelihood that the Bank of Japan will end negative interest rates in the immediate term is low, Gov. Kazuo Ueda suggested Monday, given uncertainty over the outlook for consumer prices and wages.

“Theoretically speaking, [abolishing the negative-rate policy] can happen at any meeting,” Ueda said at a news conference Monday. “But if you ask whether it can happen this year, we only have less than two months left, although I cannot say that such a possibility is zero.”
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26.9.
Japan’s Stock Boom to Drive Equity Sales Through 2024, BofA Says
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-stock-boom-drive-equity…
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Japan’s world-beating stock rally should continue to fuel sales in both its primary and secondary equity markets through next year, according to BofA Securities Japan Co.

Proceeds from initial public offerings and additional share sales in Japan have reached more than $20 billion so far in 2023, an increase of 3.5 times compared with the same period last year. That’s come as the benchmark Topix has surged about 11% in dollar terms, outpacing gains in a gauge of global peers.

“There is a usually a lag between Japanese market performance and corporate ECM activity, so I think that this trend will continue for the next year or two,” said Shu Nagata, the head of Japan Global Capital Markets at BofA.

Positives including a weak yen, ultra-easy monetary policy and hopes for stable inflation have helped push the Topix to its highest level since 1990. Foreign investment has also picked up, encouraged by the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s drive for higher corporate valuations.

Nagata noted that BofA hosted a Japan conference at the beginning of September which saw increases in participants from the US, Europe and Asia.

“Japan’s market is changing much more than expected,” he said. “There is a feeling of real change to the Japanese economy itself.”

The equity boom has driven a variety of equity deals. While Japanese IPOs “tend to be a longer-term product,” taking about a month from launch to listing, market upswings also drive demand for more short-term deals like block trades, Nagata said.
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25.9.
Japan’s Kishida to Reform Asset Management to Lure Foreign Investors
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-kishida-reform-asset-ma…
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Japan must enhance the way assets are managed to encourage foreign investors to help prompt a long-awaited shift among households from savings to assets, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said.

Improvements are needed for corporate governance, lowering entry barriers and boosting asset classes as foreign investors show a rising interest in Japan, Kishida said at an event of brokerage firms on Monday. He was the first premier to attend the event in 29 years, and his remarks kicked off a promotional campaign by the government to try and sell Japan as a key international financial center.

“I want everyone here to carry out strong reforms, with a sense of urgency — as if you would be left behind without changing now,” said Kishida, who last week made a renewed bid in New York to lure foreign asset managers to Japan.
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"Japan Value"



21.9.
A Popular Quant Trade Misfiring on Wall Street Rallies Overseas
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/popular-quant-trade-misfiring-wall…
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So-called value shares — which trade at lower multiples relative to fundamentals — are all the rage again but this time in Asia and, more recently, Europe.

Investors are essentially betting that global interest rates will stay higher for longer without torpedoing economic growth. In Japan, cheap-looking shares have outperformed so-called growth equities by a beefy 17 percentage points on a total return basis, MSCI indexes show. That comes amid growing expectations that the Bank of Japan is closer to ending its historic monetary-easing campaign.

In other parts of Asia, the investing style has won out by 7 percentage points. In Europe, a resurgence this month has put cheap shares in the lead for 2023.

For so-called factor investors who slice and dice shares by how cheap they look, the strategy’s overseas gains are softening the pain from losses over in the US — where an extraordinary AI boom is instead boosting shares touted for their long-term growth promise. On Wall Street, value has trailed growth by 30 percentage points, set for the worst annual performance since the 2020 pandemic crash.

“In this new higher-for-longer rates regime, cheaper stocks should have more chance to outperform, especially if they deliver stronger earnings as they have been doing most recently,” Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau wrote in a note.
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Ziehen die Japaner nun nach ?

Die meisten Indices haben bereits MACD Kaufsignale geliefert ... der Nikkei folgt nun mit einem ... Spätzünder ...




weitere Analysen
Thread: Charts 2023 by Chartier

28.7.
Japan sends yen soaring and stocks tumbling with hint it could join rate-hiking party
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/28/investing/japan-boj-yield…
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The BOJ said it wanted to maintain ultra-low interest rates because Japan hadn’t yet achieved its 2% inflation target and would “patiently” continue with monetary easing.

Japan’s core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food items, rose 3.3% in June, accelerating from 3.2% in the previous month. It has stayed above the central bank’s inflation target for the fifteenth straight month.

On paper, the headline numbers suggest the BOJ’s inflation target has already been met. However, Kazuo Ueda, governor of the bank, says the price increases have been mainly being driven by “cost push factors,” such as high import costs, which could slow as the cost of imported commodities falls.

Officials are not convinced that deflation has been fully defeated. They have indicated that they want to see increases in wages, among other evidence, before considering ending their massive stimulus program.

12.7.
Yen Strengthens Through 140 as Bulls Bet on Turning Point
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/battered-yen-bulls-timing-glo…
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The odds major economies will crash are rising as central banks are forced to keep tightening amid stickier-than-expected inflation, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists. With that in mind, the yen — which tends to benefit from safe-haven flows — looks chronically undervalued as the currency’s trade-weighted, inflation-adjusted exchange rate hovers around lows last seen in 1971.

“We’re only going to get closer to that eventual global recessionary risk and the likelihood of that is only increasing as we get into year-end and next year,” said Viraj Patel, a strategist at Vanda Research, who sees the yen gaining about 20% if the world economy rolls over. “It’s just a matter of timing rather than the catalyst being wrong.”
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https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/stock-market

15.5.
Goldman Sees More Japan Upside as Topix Approaches 33-Year High
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-topix-index-edges-towar…
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Japanese stocks advanced for a second day, pushing the Topix closer to reaching its highest level since August 1990, with strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. saying solid fundamentals and expectations for structural changes “justify a bullish stance” on the nation’s equities.

The economic outlook for Japan is strong given positive factors including an inbound recovery, plans for robust capital expenditure and ongoing monetary easing at the Bank of Japan, Goldman strategists Kazunori Tatebe and Bruce Kirk wrote in a note. In addition, companies are announcing solid earnings, valuations are cheap and long-term investors are positioned in the market.
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“We note the solid fundamentals compared with stocks on overseas markets, and we also think that expectations for structural changes/reforms could push Japanese equities up even further,” the Goldman strategists wrote.
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25.4.
Japan to Change Yield Curve Control Policy in June, Says Largest Insurance Company
https://news.metal.com/newscontent/102194594/Japan-to-Change…
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According to the latest forecast of Nippon Life Insurance Co., the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will adjust the yield curve control (YCC) policy in June this year.

Japan's largest insurance company will accelerate the purchase of Japanese government bonds when the central bank adjusts its policy, according to the annual allocation plan.

Last week, another Japanese life-insurance giant, Fukoku Life Insurance Co., formulated a similar investment strategy for the fiscal year.

On Monday (April 24), Akira Tsuzuki, head of the Financial and Investment Planning Department of Nippon Life Insurance, told the media that the BOJ will raise the upper limit of the fluctuation range of the 10-year government bond yield from 0.5% to 1% to ease the pressure on Japan's dysfunctional bond market.

Tsuzuki added that the current 30-year Japanese bond yieds of about 1.3% is not an attractive level, "We plan to buy bonds slowly as interest rates rise, and yields of about 1.5% and closer to 2% will be very attractive."

During the day, Kazuo Ueda, the new governor of the BOJ, said that when it is foreseeable that the inflation rate will tend to reach 2%, it is necessary to move towards policy normalisation.
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11.4.
particularly given our belief that further cuts are likely.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/buffett-s-4-5-billion-japan-gain…
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The legendary stock picker, who told Japanese media he’s open to more investment opportunities in the country at the right price, has gained an estimated $4.5 billion from his positions in a clutch of Japanese trading houses since 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Buffett, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., unveiled his stakes in the companies in August 2020, investing an estimated $6.1 billion before boosting his holdings by about $2.4 billion in November. Those positions are now worth almost $13 billion.

Buffett told Nikkei he has since raised his holdings even further, though Berkshire has yet to officially disclose any additional purchases.

Buffett’s initial bet on the trading houses, which earn much of their income from energy-related businesses, came at a time when the Covid pandemic had left oil prices deeply depressed. All but one of the businesses were valued at less than their net assets when Buffett purchased his initial stakes. While valuations have since climbed, several are still trading at discounts to Japan’s benchmark Topix index.
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30.3.
Citadel to Resume Hedge Fund Business in Japan With Tokyo Office
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citadel-resume-hedge-fund-bus…
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Ken Griffin’s hedge fund firm Citadel is planning to set up a team in Tokyo, returning to Japan more than a decade after it shuttered operations there during the global financial crisis, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The company is applying for an investment management license to operate a hedge fund in the country and seeking to tap local talent, the person said, asking not to be named because the matter is private. Citadel has yet to decide when the office will open, the person added.

Griffin is expanding his footprint in Asia. His other firm Citadel Securities LLC, which focuses on market-making business, has more than doubled its headcount in the region in the past three years.

The latest move is a plus for Tokyo’s ambitions to improve its status as a financial hub. Citadel Securities opened an office in the Japanese capital last year to sell US fixed-income offerings.
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=> warum kehrt Citadel (Hedge fund) nach so vielen Jahren wieder nach Japan zurück?

"normalization will come to Japan"

30.3.
A $3 Trillion Threat to Global Financial Markets Looms in Japan
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/3-trillion-threat-global-f…
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Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda changed the course of global markets when he unleashed a $3.4 trillion firehose of Japanese cash on the investment world. Now Kazuo Ueda is likely to dismantle his legacy, setting the stage for a flow reversal that risks sending shockwaves through the global economy.

Just over a week before a momentous leadership change at the BOJ, investors are gearing up for the seemingly inevitable end to a decade of ultra-low interest rates that punished domestic savers and sent a wall of money overseas. The exodus accelerated after Kuroda moved to suppress bond yields in 2016, culminating in a mountain of offshore investments worth more than two-thirds Japan’s economy.

All this risks unraveling under the new governor Ueda, who may have little choice but to end the world’s boldest easy-money experiment just as rising interest rates elsewhere are already jolting the international banking sector and threatening financial stability. The stakes are enormous: Japanese investors are the biggest foreign holders of US government bonds and own everything from Brazilian debt to European power stations to bundles of risky loans stateside.

An increase in Japan’s borrowing costs threatens to amplify the swings in global bond markets, which are being rocked by the Federal Reserve’s year-long campaign to combat inflation and the new danger of a credit crunch. Against this backdrop, tighter monetary policy by the BOJ is likely to intensify scrutiny of its country’s lenders in the wake of recent bank turmoil in the US and Europe.
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The flow reversal is already underway. Japanese investors sold a record amount of overseas debt last year as local yields rose on speculation that the BOJ would normalize policy.

Kuroda added fuel to the fire last December when he relaxed the central bank’s grip on yields by a fraction. In just hours, Japanese government bonds plunged and the yen skyrocketed, jolting everything from Treasuries to the Australian dollar.
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For others like 36-year markets veteran Rajeev De Mello, it’s likely only a matter of time before Ueda has to act and the consequences may have global repercussions.

“I fully agree with the consensus that the BOJ will tighten — they’ll want to end this policy as soon as possible,” said De Mello, a money manager at GAMA Asset Management in Geneva. “It comes down to central bank credibility, it comes down to inflation conditions being increasingly fulfilled now — normalization will come to Japan.”
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Antwort auf faultcode 04.10.22 14:34:34 Uhr

9.3.
A Kuroda Surprise Risks Blocking Topix’s Ascent to 32-Year High
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kuroda-surprise-risks-blockin…