The crash is over - the worm has turned - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Dritte Million]

[Freddie]

SHS auf über 50 Euro!

dank Förtschi,

also Förtschi nun mach schon!

[Dritte Million]

Whatever Greenspan says now in words, the reality of his deeds will be increasingly conciliatory in the coming months. For one thing, we have an election coming up and President Clinton is making it increasingly clear that he expects Greenspan to play ball. For another, the stock market decline since March will have real impact on economic growth in the coming months -- that has nothing to do with inflation, but Greenspan thinks it does, and that`s all that matters. And finally, the oil price has peaked -- now gold and other commodities are starting to move lower as well, which will feed into lower CPI and PPI numbers.

The market`s telling us this, if we will only listen. The crash is over. The worm has turned.

It`s hard to feel confident in this. It`s scary. That`s what will make it a real bottom.

[Dritte Million]

Und wie sieht das Chart der Leitboerse NASDAQ aus ?

[Dritte Million]

Haben wir hier den neuen Leader, der die Richtung in den naechsten Wochen/Monaten vorgibt ??

Plus 25 % seit Jahresanfang !!

[Mr.Fresh]

Wenn ich das richtig verstehe, muß die Nasdaq die 4000 spätestens in 14 Tagen knacken, damit sich die Trendwende nach Norden bestätigt. Und dann beginnt die Rallye. Diesmal im Sommer

[Neemann]

Der Ölpreis ist als Inlfationstreiber auch längst nicht verdächtigt, sondern Hauptaugenmerk sind die Arbeitskosten. Bei 3,9% ist der Arbeitsmarkt leergefegt, und von dort ist erheblicher Preisdruck zu erwarten (so viele Inder können die auf einmal nicht ins Land bekommen).
Warten wir mal den morgigen Tag ab - die Zinsanhebung ist ja längst eingepreist, der Lieblingsspruch in den vergangenen Tagen.
Wenn also alle davon ausgehen, daß die Märkte steigen, sobald die Fed ihre Anhebung beschlossen hat - na, werden sie dann steigen, oder ist diese Erwartungshaltung vielleicht auch schon im Markt eingepreist? Ich wundere mich nicht, wenn es morgen kräftig abwärts geht.

[Red Shoes (†) [KommA]]

Ich habe genau entgegengesetzte Ergebnisse ausgearbeitet, Dritte Million! - Charttechnisch.
Nachzulesen unter TMTV, NASDAQ & NEMAX-ALL-SHARE. Dort mache ich eine wöchentliche Analyse.

Schöne Grüße, Red Shoes

[Moneymax_I]

Hi, Dritte Million.
Schöne Aufbereitung. Morgen wird die FED die Entscheidung fällen, und -wie immer- der Markt erleichtert sein. Das wird dann den Durchbruch signalisieren. In einem Monat sind dann auch die angfesprochenen 4000 wieder geknackt.

[Dritte Million]

Woechentliche Indikatoren vom US Markt

NYSE members report

Short sales
public.........264471...195
members....367825...284
specialists..281143...215

member activity
net b/s....+ 39124..-21

Nichts besonderes in diesen Zahlen. Interessant wird es, wenn die public mehr shorted die specialists.



Investor Sentiment Readings (%)

Investors Intelligence (ueber 130 investment advisory services)
bullish........48.6 47.6 50.5
bearish......31.2 31.4 29.3
correction..20.2 21.0 20.2

Bulls weiterhin unter 50% = positiv

Consensus Index (stock index futures traders)
bullish.....21 31 38

AAII Index (Privatanleger)
bullish..........30.2 34.8 61.3
bearish........25.6 34.8 14.5
neutral........44.2 30.4 24.2

Privatanleger extrem vorsichtig!!

Market Vane (stock index futures traders)
bullish.....28 34 30


Insgesamt weiterhin bearish sentiment im Markt = bottom building ??


Woechentliche Liquiditaetsfluesse von US Funds in Mio $

Stock funds + 1550
Bonds funds - 628
Municipal Bonds - 532
Money Markets + 8300

[Dritte Million]

Have we had enough slower data to please the Fed?

Nah, we just started. And I hadn`t even seen the CPI before I penned this piece! But can the Fed afford to keep taking action beyond today now that the data has started to slow? I don`t think so.

Which is why I come in this morning wishing I owned more stock than I do. I think we are about to discover that the Fed is less worried than we thought, but is probably afraid to articulate that for fear that it really gets the stock market going.

What do you do if that`s the case?
You raise rates and then you take the rest of the summer off without declaring victory. Seems plausible. Seems bullish.

[Dritte Million]

.
50...25...We Have Liftoff!

Everybody`s weighed in with their best guess on how much the Fed will raise rates, but never mind the debate; the market`s going higher no matter what.

50 or 25? 25 or 50? I`m not sure it even matters any more. Whichever it is, the stock market is preparing for something good -- just having the waiting be over with. The evidence is in the market itself -- yesterday every major index either broke out, or closed right at resistance. NASDAQ futures closed 25 points above fair value.

The recovery is well underway, and the next move will be very exciting

There`s no denying it. The recovery is alive and well! The rally last Thursday established a bottom-above-a-bottom, successfully testing the panic lows of April 17. Then yesterday`s rally broke out of the declining trend defined by the recovery high on May 1. Now the NASDAQ Composite is poised to move up across the trading range to test 4000. For today first support is at 3580, then 3400. There is no resistance until 4000.

[Moneymax_I]

das nenn man fait accompli.

[Dritte Million]

Can you get more counterintuitive than what is happening on our screens? We are prepared to celebrate with a buying spree before, during and after a 50-basis-point hike that is meant to dampen ... a buying spree!!

The fate-tempting of the whole thing is astounding. Let`s go buy some stocks to celebrate a Fed`s decision to try to stop us from buying stocks!!

I sure wish the Fed understood the dilemma that we fund managers find ourselves in on days like today. We now feel that things are working perfectly again, inflation being reined in, the Fed working its magic and now, we have no choice but to take stocks back up to where the Fed will be unhappy.

But that`s what happens when you use an instrument like short rates to make policy in a stock market that frankly doesn`t, short-term, give a hoot until rates get to much higher levels.

So Mr. Chairman, sorry, we have to do the opposite of common sense, because we have to beat all of the other guys who are doing the opposite of common sense, or else they will take the money away!

[nwcom]

hallo dritte million,

gute Ausarbeitung. Wenn Du Chartanalysen betreibst und mittels candlestick ist dies wohl die einzig wahre Möglichkeit, dann solltest Du nicht an der Theorie von Fibonacchi vorbeigehen. Suche Dir den niedrigsten Punkt des letzten Aufwärtstrends. Dann kannst Du Dir mittels der oben angeführten Rechenmethode (Fibonacchi) die Widerstände zeichnen. Ehrlich gesagt sind wir noch an den Widerständen angelangt. Ein sinnvolles Abwarten wäre in diesem Fall zielführender. Ein spekulativer Einstieg bei 550, Punkten wäre für mich seriös betrachtet halbwegs vertrenswert.

was meinst Du?

grüße nwcom

[Dritte Million]

Danke fuer den Hinweis. Habe ich auch schon in der Vergangenheit probiert. Scheint besonders gut im daytrading von Futures zu klappen.

Aber - zurueck zu einfachen Sachen. Also nur noch support/resistance und trendlines. Dies reicht mir um ein gutes Gefuehl fuer den Markt zu bekommen. Natuerlich verfolge ich noch jede Menge anderer Daten...

[nwcom]

finde ich gut. das zeigt mir ein hohes niveau in diesem board. stimmt übrigens, bei den futures gehts besonders gut. erfahrungsgemäß funktionierts aber bei allen chart`s. problematisch wirds nur bei den zu kurzen charts.

interessant übrigens die entscheidung der FED. 0,5 % Zinsanhebung - mehr als ich erwartet habe. Mal schauen wohin der Dollar nun geht. Die untere Retracementlinie liegt bei 0,84 und bis dorthin steigt der Dollar - wetten. Dann vorsichtiger Einstieg Call Euro.

Das wäre ein guter neuer Threat.

ciao und gute nacht

[Dritte Million]

bearish sentiment weiter angestiegen auf 33.6 % (31.2 %)

[mischa]

interessant, interessant.....hast deine dritte million auch nicht mit dax aktien gemacht, hm???
gruss mischa

[Dritte Million]

Hallo mischa

techs rules [ meistens ]

Der Wurm lebt noch, aber ist unschluessig, ob er sich noch einmal schnell eingraben soll


The Arms Index, a comparison of advances, declines, advancing volume and declining volume, turned sharply up over the last two sessions. This bullish behavior in the face of the sharp decline is especially supportive.

The 200 day moving average of advances and declines has been positive for the last two months, after a decline from February 1998(!) through February of 1999. It turned down again last July and has fallen since.

Both of these support the summer or election rally that many expect. Such a rally is even more likely if you are one of the minority who consider the current administration to be dishonest and willing to use deceit to accomplish their ends.

On the other hand, the Valueline indicator described by Zweig, gave a sell signal today. This indicator is an extreme measure of a trend gone haywire. Most of the time I have seen it triggered at the end of every sharp decline. It doesn`t worry me too much.

The NASDAQ high low indicator is incomprehensibly bullish following an extreme low made 10 days ago. If the past is any help, it has a history of double rising bottoms before the end of declines.

My overall impression is that we are close to a good rally, probably next week.

[Dritte Million]

Woechentliche Indikatoren vom US Markt

NYSE members report

Short sales
public.........218...264...195
members....293...368...284
specialists..229...281...215

member activity
net buy/sell....+ 9..+39..-21

Nichts besonderes in diesen Zahlen. Interessant wird es, wenn die public mehr shorted als die specialists. Profis seit 2 Wochen Nettokaeufer.



Investor Sentiment Readings (%)

Investors Intelligence (ueber 130 investment advisory services)
bullish........49.1 48.6 47.6 50.5
bearish......33.6 31.2 31.4 29.3
correction..17.3 20.2 21.0 20.2

Bulls weiterhin unter 50% plus bears % ansteigend = positiv

Consensus Index (stock index futures traders) %
bullish.....19 21 31 38

AAII Index (Privatanleger)
bullish........35.3 30.2 34.8 61.3
bearish........41.2 25.6 34.8 14.5
neutral........23.5 44.2 30.4 24.2

Bears ueber bulls = bullisch !!

Market Vane (stock index futures traders)
bullish.....33 28 34 30


Zunehmendes bearish sentiment im Markt = bottom building ??


Woechentliche Liquiditaetsfluesse der US Fonds in Mio $

Stock funds......+7900 +1550
Money Markets +4700 +8300
Bonds funds.......-934 -628
Municipal Bonds -239 -532


.

[Neemann]

Dritte Million, Immerhin mutig genug von Dir, den Thread wieder hervorzuholen. Nach Deinen Aussagen ist der Crash ja schon häufiger vorbei gewesen.
IRGENDWANN haste natürlich recht, wenn du dich nur oft genug wiederholst.

Wünsch Dir alsbald Erfolg

[Dritte Million]

Yesterday morning the stock index futures traded higher for several hours before the opening. After the opening, markets traded higher for about five minutes. Then it was like a trap-door opened: everything just collapsed. Within a few minutes the NASDAQ Composite sliced right through the uptrend line that has defined the great bull move since October 1998. Then a few minutes later the NASDAQ traded down through the level of the panic lows of April 17.

And there it sat for hours of the same languid churning we`ve gotten used to these last several weeks.

And then in the final hour, the broad indices just picked themselves up and pretty much entirely recovered. The NASDAQ 100 even managed to close slightly higher on the day! It was all just a bad dream! Just kidding! April Fools!

While the broad indices generally recovered, the rotation between sectors was savage. The pattern was that the stocks and sectors that have done the worst these last few months did the best yesterday.-- the went down the least in the morning and came back the hardest in the afternoon. At the same time, the stocks and sectors that have been the strongest recently got absolutely thrashed in the morning, and recovered the least in the afternoon. If you are a relative-strength investor -- as we are -- you got hurt yesterday.

What does it all mean? Was yesterday a `false breakdown,` a head-fake on a vast scale designed to scare out the mama`s boys? Or was it, like April 7 -- that other amazing reversal day -- merely a hint of catastrophes still to come? I`m not ready to venture a view on this one just yet. I want to watch the sector rotation today and tomorrow: there will be important clues here as we sort out the strong and the week.

If you held a gun to my head and forced me to make a prediction, I`d say that yesterday was a real reversal, a true bottom. It reminds me of the second bottom following the crash of 1987. It took place in early December -- December 5, if I recall. It was just slightly lower than the level of the crash bottom, and made on lower volume: very much the kind of thing we saw in the NASDAQ yesterday. There was no particular news development that made that second bottom in 1987. It was just the market wringing out the last of the terror from the crash. Maybe that`s what happened yesterday. Maybe.

[Juttol]

Hi 3. Million,

sag´mal, ist es sinnvoll, überwiegend ohne Quellenangaben ausgezeichnete engl. Texte zudem unkommentiert hier reinzustellen?
Es gibt i.ü. für jede Aussagerichtung diverse Unterlegungen, wenngleich deine Texte derzeit tatsächlich "ausgesucht" sein dürften. Aber: dann doch erst recht mit Quellenangabe

würde ich meinen Juttol

[PMG]

@3M: Gutes Argument: Das erschwerte Umfeld beginnt sich auf die Real World auszubreiten, also verlangsamt sich die Konjunktur...

Ich glaube, das könnte kurzfristig ein Fehlschluß sein! Gerade die erschwerten Bedingungen im Techsektor zwingen die jungen Unternehmen, noch einaml alles zu geben. Werbung, Investitionen...die Flucht nach vorne! Genau dies könnte die Lage noch einaml verschärfen! Mit kurzfristig höherem Wachstum UND inflationärer Tendenz!

Ein anderes gewichtiges Argument: All die Übernahmen, die zu teuer erfolgten, werden die Bilanzen erheblich belasten, denn diese Finanzanlagen werden zu Jahrestiefstkursen bilanziert. Das könnte viele U. in Liquiditätsschwierigkeiten birnigen, bei höheren Kapitalbeschaffungskosten. Bis jetzt ist an der Börse NICHTS passiert. Die Korrektur der Indices seit beginn der Internet-Hausse ist lächerlich gering ausgefallen.

Vorsicht vor dem bullish sentiment der Institutionals...Manipulation?

PMG

[Dritte Million]

Hallo Neemann

danke fuer die freundlichen Worte

It`s hard to feel confident in this. It`s scary. That`s what will make it a real bottom.

[Dritte Million]

Erste Bremsspuren in der US Wirtschaft

Junk bond Markt ist tod
Commercial Paper Markt ist [fast] tod
Spread zwischen low-grade bonds und Treasuries ist der weiteste seit der Russland Krise Herbst 1998

zunehmender Druck auf Emerging Markets

US Banken verschaerfen Bonitaetsansprueche im Privatsektor

Superfeste Dollar nicht gut fuer US exports


Die FED Zinserhoehungen greifen, die naechsten Keydata CPI, retail sales und employment index zeigen hoffentlich zunehmend diese Einfluesse

[Neemann]

Dein Wort in Gottes .. äh Alans Gehörgang.
Aber die nächste Zinserhöhung hat er angekündigt, die zieht er noch durch.

[Dritte Million]

Ja, zumindest noch eine, wenn nicht sogar zwei. Haengt wohl von den Schluesseldaten (siehe unten) ab.
Sobald die Boerse davon ueberzeugt ist, dass der Zinssteigerungszyklus [fast] vorbei ist - geht`s los [a la 1994 ??]

[PMG]

Noch ein nachdenkliches Argument...woher wissen wir, ob der `slow down` letzlich wirklich gut vom Aktienmarkt aufgenommen werden wird...? Zunächst sicherlich... aber was bleibt übrig? Immer noch hohe Zinsen und das Gefühl, daß der Boom vorbei ist!?
PMG

[IngeMeisel]

Hallo dritte Million,
warum sagst du, es gibt erste Bremsspuren in der US-Wirtschaft??Das ist doch logisch, daß es die gibt, bei den Zinsen, daß ist ja wohl auch der
Zweck det janzen-die Frage ist doch eher, wann ist die Zinsrunde vorbei-dann geht´s am Aktienmarkt automatisch nach oben!!Oder seh ich das falsch?
Hoffen wir auf Juni!

[Dritte Million]

Weitere Bremsspuren: Costco Gewinnwarnung :O


Noch `was interessantes:

It`s Dot-Com Selloff Time; Do You Know Where Your Net Funds Are?

By James J. Cramer / The Street.com
5/24/00 1:19 PM ET

Here`s a hunch, but I get paid to have hunches. Some Net fund, some fund that is built on being long the Internet, is going belly-up. You can smell it. These companies are now falling on their own weight. They can`t lift for a second. The Net infrastructure and dot-com world is under more pressure than I have ever seen it and it has to be because someone, or some funds, are blowing up.

This is a sickening decline and it is encompassing everything that was meant for the Net. The arms merchants (i.e. the suppliers to the Net) are just being crushed and I have to believe that the decline is caused by massive liquidations by funds that have invested Net-specifically. It reminds me of the selloffs I have seen when oil-service stocks got liquidated and when gold stocks got liquidated. The sellers are of the distressed mutual-fund variety, not individuals.

Until we see the news of the blowup, we aren`t buying any of these names. Too dangerous.

[Dritte Million]

.
The tape is awful

I don`t care if it is a bull or a bear market.
Those terms just blind you.

Patience.
Time and patience.
Believe that things will get better.
But don`t bet that way.
Don`t confuse hope with reality.
It is crummy.
It will get better.
Stay in the game.
Have plenty of cash.

Wait for the Fed to get happy.
Wait for the action to get better.
It will.
Just not now.
Not yet.
Don`t blow it.
Wait for your pitch.

[Dritte Million]

Is It For Real?

Yesterday`s rally was nothing less than a breakout, but can we expect more of the same? Don thinks so, but in moderation.

Yesterday something very special happened. Today we`ll see if it was for real.

Before the opening the NASDAQ and S&P futures traded higher in the night session -- way higher. The conventional wisdom that`s been drummed into our heads these last two horrible months has been that that`s a head-fake. Night futures lie. If they`re down, buy the opening. If they`re up, sell the opening. That`s not the way it turned out yesterday.

Then the opening turned out to be real. The futures hadn`t lied. But the conventional wisdom that`s been drilled into our tortured souls this miserable springtime is that rallies don`t last. Fade the move. Sell all rallies. That`s not the way it turned out yesterday.

This time it was different. What turned out yesterday was nothing less than a breakout in the NASDAQ Composite, out from under at last from the declining trend that has held it in thrall since the double-top in March. And the biggest up-day in the NASDAQ`s history. Who would have thunk it?

Our community member Derfnamdoog for one. Derf is an expert technical analyst who follows various esoteric indicators, including an amazing price/volume chart that plots the price of the Dow on one axis against NYSE total volume on the other. Try it some time: the chart you`ll get is like nothing you`ve ever seen before, made up of soaring loops and swirls. But Derf has learned to read its patterns.

On Saturday he posted a prescient message on our discussion boards: The trading at the end of the week has changed my expectations. The decline on low volume and the small drop on Friday lead me to expect a rally starting as soon as Tuesday. The key will be volume greater than 875 million and a rally in the Dow to 10423 or above. Rather than decrease my tech holdings, as I had planned but did not do last week, I will be purchasing some QQQ’s for what I expect to be at least a two-week rally.

What can I add to Ed Spiegel`s reply: `Yo the man. Great call yesterday! Keep us tuned in.`

What indeed? How about a reason for the massive rally? Perhaps no reason is needed for a market that has been so horribly oversold. But Jule Herbert offers a tempting theory in a message posted yesterday: Last Wednesday`s WSJ weekly Tax Report contained the blurb that Majority Leader Lott will soon join NJ Democrat Torricelli in proposing a capital gains tax bill which would cut the holding period for a long-term capital gain (the 20% rate) from 12 to 3 months. It would seem that this would be a quite important event for the stock markets.

Jule just might be onto something. Anything that effectively reduces capital gains taxes increases the after-tax expected return of the stock market -- and that drives the market higher.

Is it for real?

We may not know the reason for yesterday`s rally yet, but we can look for technical clues in the meantime that will tell us whether the rally is for real or not. I say it is for real -- but either way, we`ll know soon enough.

To some observers yesterday`s low volume was evidence that the rally was nothing but a head-fake. In a post at the end of the day yesterday, even Derfnamdoog was worried about the day`s low volume: The only thing that was disappointing about the lovely rally today was the volume. We missed the 875 million mark and will have to accomplish that before the upmove gets legs. Any Dow above 10423 on good volume will reinforce the rally. A drop below 10423 on any volume will be worrisome.

I don`t have Derf`s price/volume charts, so I`ll have to take his word for it. And chart or no chart, I acknowledge that conventional wisdom dictates that big moves on low volume are suspect. But I think that there`s another way of looking at it. This is a market that needs to heal -- it needs to repair itself from the orgiastic binge of volume and volatility that has consumed it since last November. While the magnitude of yesterday`s move certainly represents no cessation of volatility, the low volume can be understood as part of the healing process. A reduction in volatility may be next -- we`re already seeing it in the second-tier tech stocks that have been the most volatile of all.

Thinking about a reduction in volatility and volume informs the question of what it means for this rally to be `for real.` At this point there is no reason to believe that it indicates a resumption of the great NASDAQ bull market that began in October 1988. It may mean that, but I doubt it. I think there`s been too much damage for that. And besides, as I`ve said over and over all year, the trend of that bull market was not sustainable, and it will not now be resumed.

All that is indicated right now is that -- at least for the moment -- the great NASDAQ bear market of 2000 is over. The back of the bear has been broken. As events unfold over the next couple of weeks and months, we`ll know whether it`s broken for good. And we`ll come to understand what new trend has taken its place. But we can say confidently now that the season of terror is over.

All you have to do to convince yourself is to open your eyes and look at a couple of charts of bellwether stocks. Look at Intel -- the biggest stock in the NASDAQ. You all probably thought I was mad raving stark last week when I said that Intel was forming a head-and-shoulders bottom. But now it`s done it, and it`s broken out. And not just from some little small-time short-term resistance line, either. It`s broken out for real, from the big guy -- the old fellow! -- the resistance line right from the top where the crash began.
http://www.community.metamarkets.com

[Neemann]

Sieht gut aus, aber es wär einfach zu schön, wenn ich gerade den echten Tiefpunkt nutzen konnte, dem mißtrau ich aber kräftig.
Nebenbei - allzu groß war das marktvolumen gestern auch nicht, wenn ich das richtig mitbekommen habe.

[sticky]

ich glaube ein reeler Ausbruch nach oben und damit das Ende der Korrektur ist sehr unwarscheinlich...denn ohne Volumen ist die Rally zwar nett, aber nichts wert...und sie läuf in Gefahr zu einer mustergültigen Bullenfalle zu werden...aber das wäre nur die technische Seite....auf der fundamentalen Seite scheint seit den gestrigen consumer confidence Daten in den USA eine neue Zinsdiskussion zu beginnen...zudem sinkt der Ölpreis einfach nicht, so daß die Hoffnungen, die einige Superbullen hatten und haben, ....nämlich den Barrelpreis bei $25 zu sehen verpuffen....und überhaupt wird Alan Greenspan...wie er auf vielen Reden in der letzten Zeit angedeutete hat..."Probleme im Banken und Finanzsystem" einen Teufel tun dem Spielcasion Liqidität zur Verfügung zu stellen. Dont fight the fed...daher, so ungern ich das sage...es ist keine Zeit für Bullenträume...sorry..

[titian]

again vintage JJCramer courtesy 3.mio. I knew there`s some inspiration here somewhere.

[Dritte Million]

Woechentliche Indikatoren vom US Markt

NYSE members report

Short sales
public.........220...218...264...195
members....293...293...368...284
specialists..233...229...281...215

member activity
net buy/sell....+ 35..+9..+39..-21

Nichts besonderes in diesen Zahlen. Interessant wird es, wenn die public mehr shorted als die specialists.
Profis seit 3 Wochen Nettokaeufer.



Investor Sentiment Readings (%)

Investors Intelligence (ueber 130 investment advisory services)
bullish........46.0 49.1 48.6 47.6 50.5
bearish......32.4 33.6 31.2 31.4 29.3
correction..21.6 17.3 20.2 21.0 20.2

Bulls weiterhin in der Minderheit = positiv

Consensus Index (stock index futures traders) %
bullish.....25 19 21 31 38

AAII Index (Privatanleger)
bullish........34.9 35.3 30.2 34.8 61.3
bearish........36.5 41.2 25.6 34.8 14.5
neutral........28.6 23.5 44.2 30.4 24.2

Bulls weiterhin in der Minderheit = bullisch !!

Market Vane (stock index futures traders)
bullish.....25 33 28 34 30


FAZIT : weiterhin bearish sentiment im Markt = bottom building ??


Woechentliche Liquiditaetsfluesse der US Fonds in Mio $

Stock funds......-7600 +7900 +1550
Money Markets +3200 +4700 +8300
Bonds funds.......-899 -934 -628
Municipal Bonds -268 -239 -532

erstmals wurden Gelder aus den Aktienfonds abgezogen = bullisch
auch Tech Fonds erfuhren erstmalig einen geringen Abzug von 168 Mio $.

Endlich Kapitulation der Privatanleger ???

[Dritte Million]

Market Maven`s Tea Leaves Say Buy
By Brett D. Fromson
Chief Markets Writer
5/31/00 6:06 PM ET

Wall Street is a funny place.

The Nasdaq Composite leapt a record 7.94% on Tuesday, and the typically bullish analysts who work for the big firms worried that the rally could be a bear-market head fake. Yet, when the market was at higher levels only a few weeks ago, quite a few of these same six- and seven-figure analysts were out there telling clients and the public that the `correction` was over.

They were wrong then, and they may also be wrong now. That, at any rate, is the latest thinking of technical analyst Tom Beale of Yankee Prognostics, who had been bearish since late March and has turned cautiously bullish.

Beale is a contemporary witchdoctor who sells his research to professional investors including some extremely successful hedge fund managers. One customer says that Beale has `been more right on the market`s short-term moves than any technician I know of. Period.` Beale, a modest fellow, says only that most of his clients are `long-term.` He has been providing independent research since 1982.

Beale, who holds a doctorate in anthropology from Harvard, relies on two kinds of proprietary market indicators. The first looks for notable historical patterns in today`s market. Second are trend-following measures that track market momentum, shifts in stocks` supply and demand and lastly, investor sentiment.

His two models that are giving buy signals at the moment are the S&P Short-Term Model and the S&P Volatility Model. They try to identify near-term moves of between 5% and 10%, or more. They began to hint of better times in mid-May; on May 12, the Short-Term Model hit its most bullish reading since March and the Volatility Model was getting very close to giving Beale a green light to buy. `These are my two most sensitive models, the ones that are usually the first to kick in when there is a turn in the market,` says Beale.

In his view, the shakeout since mid-March supports the readings given by his indicators.

`The sideways volatility we saw in April followed by the sharp break to new lows in May meet the minimum requirement for an end to the Nasdaq bear market,` he says. `The minimum amount of time required to end a bear market is 8 to 10 weeks -- as we had in 1987. The fact that after the April 14 break we went to new lows means that this correction has lasted long enough to meet my minimum time requirement.

It is very hard to read when sentiment has been washed out enough,` he says. `I cannot say precisely how much is enough. This is not a science. But, I think we have done the minimum washing out of daytraders and margin players.`

Beale takes some comfort from his study of the history of market rallies.

`Going back to 1933, you have never had a market top on the Dow or the S&P in fewer than 22 months after a bear market bottom,` he says. Beale dates the most recent market bottom from August 1998, or almost 22 months ago. `It is almost as if after a bear market washes out everyone it takes a long time to rebuild the bullishness. Now, history does not always repeat itself, but I have in my mind that the market should be OK at least into the summer.`

He forecasts new all-time highs on the Dow and the S&P by summer and a rally in the Comp to 4000 during the same period. He does hedge a bit, though, saying he wants to see confirmation from his intermediate indicators.

But, basically, Beale is a bull right now. Not even the recent slow volume figures put him off. `It bothers me a bit, but volume is not critical to my view,` he says. `Volume is not a hard and fast predictor of rallies. Sometimes rallies start on low volume that builds.`

And after the summer?

`Then we are in no man`s land,` he says. He does not look for a bear market later in the year. `It rarely happens in presidential election years,` he says, `But in the first year of a presidency when the new president makes some hard decisions and the Fed gets more aggressive, the market can run into trouble. I wonder more about what the Fed will do after the election than I do about what it will do in June.`
gefunden @ TheStreet.com

[Dritte Million]

Betting the Slowdown Is Here
By James J. Cramer

6/1/00 10:37 AM ET

Does the Fed need to tighten again? Are we done? That`s what people have to think about these slower numbers.

Many things are positive this morning. Sherlund says the worst may be over for Microsoft. NAPM says the peak in pricing is over.

We are putting a ton of money to work betting that the slowdown is here and that we may have seen the last tightening.

We are buying banks and tech on a hunch that the Fed is done. These numbers show the Fed has won. The soft landing has happened. The economy has clearly peaked.

We can`t wait any longer.

[blindfisch]

euer englisch ist wundervoll, aber seid doch bitte so nett und denkt an die investoren, die sich gerne austauschen/informieren wollen und nicht so gut englisch parlieren.

bildung ist ein privileg, aber so grenzt sie an überheblichkeit.

ansonsten köntnen wir ohne weiteres kommentare in russisch, französisch, arabisch, thai oder spanisch in´s board setzen.

wollt ihr das????

für den inhalt und die tiefe vielen dank...

[titian]

ja wir wollen ein board nur in d unviversalsprache englisch zur optimierung
des gedankenflows, infostandes. gleiche liberalität f d gebildeten mitmenschen..
zum zugang höchstaktueller kommunikationsgehalte, konzepte, betrachtungen
aus d palo altos dieses universums.

pathologische kommunikation würde sich automatisch minimieren.

WO antwortet

[Dritte Million]

Ich versuche es ja schon einfacher zu machen, in dem ich die
m.E. wichtigen Aussagen fett drucke.

Der US sprich der Nasdaq Markt ist nun mal der auch der leader fuer den NM. US Nachrichten/Meinungen koennen uns daher in unserem heimischen Markt ab und zu die edge geben.

[Dritte Million]

Can You Hear the Cheering?
By James J. Cramer

6/2/00 8:54 AM ET


Go long euphoria. Go short gloom.

The Soft Landing is here. The trading rooms of the country are like one of those plane trips through bad weather.

The Street is giving the pilot, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, a standing ovation of black tickets and buy orders.

This number is slow. Beyond slow. This number says the Soft Landing is here.

Now you will hear every strategist saying no more tightenings for now, you gotta buy stocks. Just got the first part from Merrill as I write.

Good trip. Nice landing.

[Dritte Million]

Einer meiner Gurus bleibt bullisch (siehe auch Kommentar vom 1.6.)

Bull`s Head Revisited: Beale Still Says Buy
By Brett D. Fromson
Chief Markets Writer
6/5/00 11:57 AM ET

Last Tuesday, Tom Beale, a technical analyst based in Cambridge, Mass., with a loyal following among some hedge fund managers, said, `Buy.` His call was all the more laudable because it followed a prescient late-March sell recommendation.

What, you might wonder, is our elf at Yankee Prognostics saying this week? Stay long stocks. The short-term indicators that last week twitched bullishly have been confirmed by Beale`s other technical benchmarks.

Last week, the market rallied on stronger volume than we have seen since the Nasdaq smashup.

`This could be just another humongous head fake,` writes Beale. `But as we said last Tuesday, we think that the Nasdaq has completed the minimum time and pattern required to finish its bear market and that this rally, with inevitable bumps along the way, will prove more durable. Our signals last Tuesday were followed up by confirmation almost across the board Friday with BUYS from all our other models... We don`t necessarily look for a move on the order of last fall, but the Dow and the S&P should get to new all-time highs, and the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 at least have a fighting chance of matching their old highs before this is over.

Beale suggests buying certain industry sectors and would avoid others. The buy/sell signals for each sector are designed to spot one- to six-month price trends. He then ranks each industry by how he expects it to perform over the next six to 12 months compared with other sectors.

Beale favors, in order of preference: electronics, biotechnology, technology, energy services, telecommunications, energy, utilities, health care, leisure, financial services and banking. His sell list includes retailing, consumer products, basic materials and transportation. In general, he likes the price action and patterns he sees in small-caps vs. large-caps.

Overseas stocks also offer opportunity, according to Beale. Last week, he writes, `produced a veritable flood of BUY signals from overseas markets, reinforcing the BUYS from our U.S. models and strongly implying that the global correction that started in the spring may be over. The catalysts were weakening economic numbers out of the U.S., implying that the rise in short [interest] rates in the U.S. may be close to over and alleviating fears in the rest of the global equity markets.`

Beale likes European stock markets, especially the bourse in Paris. `Until there are better signs of life out of Japan,` he writes, `we would heavily overweight Europe...." (He thinks the euro has bottomed, although he is not yet forecasting a rally. For more on the currency picture, see TheStreet.com`s currency coverage.)

So, there you have it. Beale remains a bull.

[Dritte Million]

Und noch jemand wird bullisch - direkt aus dem WO

Bernd Niquet: Kaufkurse (1)

- Die Markttechnik liefert das Signal -

Die entscheidende Bedingung für ein Ende der Konsolidierungsphase und eine Wiederaufnahme des Aufwärtstrends bei den Technologieaktien lautete für mich folgendermaßen: Die Gurus müssen zunächst gehasst werden.

Zum Anfang der letzten Woche nun wurden wir mit einer ganz konzertierten Ladung an Nachrichten in dieser Hinsicht bombardiert. Ich bitte, meine Ausführungen in diesem Punkt ganz wertfrei zu verstehen, rein aus Sicht der `Markttechnik`.
Zuerst die `Aktion gegen Förtsch` in den Boards, bei der sogar visuell Panzer gen Kulmbach geschickt wurden,
dann die dazu passende SPIEGEL-Notiz vom letzten Montag, Alfred Maydorns Entlassung aus dem Fondsmanagement bei VMR und zum Schluss sogar noch die Pleite der Seminar-Firma von Bodo Schäfer (`Es ist das Geburtsrecht jedes Menschen, reich zu sein`).

`Jetzt könnte es eigentlich ...` habe ich daher bereits zum Wochenanfang gedacht – doch mich letztlich selbst noch nicht getraut. Als dann jedoch mein persönlicher Guru Thomas Gebert (www.gebert-boerse.de) am Freitag den Dreh von Sell auf Buy bewerkstelligte, war es für mich klar: Jetzt geht es wieder aufwärts.

Letztlich ist das natürlich alles Wahnsinn, denn kaum ein Technologiewert ist wirklich richtig billig geworden, sie sind nur von „total überbewertet“ auf „überbewertet“ gefallen. Dennoch entspricht die Situation von heute aus meiner Sicht ganz exakt der Situation beim Anstieg von Neuem Markt und Nasdaq im letzten Oktober.

Witzigerweise bin ich gerade dabei, diese Zeit für ein aktuelles Buchprojekt aufzuarbeiten. Und hier zeigt sich in einer fast unglaublichen Parallelität: Auch im Oktober 1999 herrschte die Meinung vor, noch sei nichts wirklich billig, weshalb die Korrektur also noch weitergehen müsste und wir die Tiefs noch nicht gesehen hätten. Doch was passierte dann? Der Nemax-Allshare, gefallen von über 4.000 auf deutlich unter 3.000, sollte nach allgemeiner Sicht noch einmal an die alten Tiefs aus dem Oktober 1998 bei etwa 2.000 Punkten herankommen.

Doch dann ist er senkrecht und fast ohne Pause angestiegen auf fast 9.000 Punkte.

Ich wiederhole: Es ist alles ein Wahnsinn. Dennoch glaube ich, dass es jetzt wieder losgeht wie in den besten Zeiten. Wir müssen uns einfach damit vertraut machen, dass wir uns gerade im High-Tech-Bereich in einer Grauzone zwischen Kostolanys `genialem Schwindel`
und der organisierten Kriminalität befinden. Doch dafür muss man nicht einmal den Tatort von gestern gesehen haben. Die Realität ist viel, viel besser, wie der SPIEGEL heute wieder einmal beweist.

Ist der Verstand erst ruiniert, lebt sich´s gänzlich ungeniert. Die größte Manie der letzten tausend Jahre und zudem die Möglichkeit, an der Börse ganz legal die Aktien der Mafia zu kaufen. Man wäre ein Idiot, wenn man hier nicht beherzt zugreifen würde.

Bernd Niquet, Montag, der 5. Juni 2000

[Dritte Million]

Jede Menge cash on the sidelines.

Lt. www.trimtabs.com sind den US Aktienfonds in den letzten 2 Tagen 11.7 Mrd. $ zugeflossen.

Die cash Uebernahme von Best Foods durch Unilever wird nochmals ueber 20 Mrd. $ in den Markt pumpen

[Dritte Million]

Woechentliche Indikatoren vom US Markt

NYSE members report

Short sales
public.........214...213...220...218...264...195
members....289...283...293...293...368...284
specialists..225...228...233...229...281...215

member activity
net buy/sell....+28..+20..+35..+9..+39..-21

Nichts besonderes in diesen Zahlen. Interessant wird es, wenn die public mehr shorted als die specialists.
Pro`s seit 5 Wochen Nettokaeufer.



Investor Sentiment Readings (%)

Investors Intelligence (ueber 130 investment advisory services)
bullish........48.1 46.3 46.0 49.1 48.6 47.6 50.5
bearish......34.3 34.3 32.4 33.6 31.2 31.4 29.3
correction..17.6 19.4 21.6 17.3 20.2 21.0 20.2

Bulls weiterhin in der Minderheit = positiv

Consensus Index (stock index futures traders) %
bullish.....37 29 25 19 21 31 38

AAII Index (Privatanleger)
bullish.........61.5 41.7 34.9 35.3 30.2 34.8 61.3
bearish.......23.0 37.5 36.5 41.2 25.6 34.8 14.5
neutral........15.4 20.8 28.6 23.5 44.2 30.4 24.2

Oops. bulls in der Mehrheit = negativ

Market Vane (stock index futures traders)
bullish.....34 25 25 33 28 34 30


FAZIT : Die Bulls regen sich wieder, einziger Lichtblick ist die unveraenderte vorsichtige Einstellung der II Umfrage.
Privatanleger werden wieder mutiger :O





Woechentliche Liquiditaetsfluesse der US Fonds in Mio $

Stock funds......+519 [phone] +7900 +1550
Money Markets [phone] +3200 +4700 +8300
Bonds funds.......+1200 -600 -899 -934 -628
Municipal Bonds [phone]

Cash was King - zumindest letzte Woche


Monatliche Uebersicht (in Mio $ )
Stock funds......April +33770 Maerz +39390
Cash Reserven der Aktienfonds April 4.9 % Maerz 4 %

[Dritte Million]

Nasdaq in der ueberkauften Zone. Duerfte demnaechst wieder zurueckfallen (muessen), um wieder Kraft fuer den naechsten Ausbruchversuch ueber 4000 zu sammeln. Rueckfallrisiko mindestens bis 3583, dies wuerde das Ausbruchsgap schliessen.

[Dritte Million]

[Dritte Million]

Uebringens, heute ist der 10. Tag = ( 2 Boersenwochen ), an dem sich der Nasdaq in einer engen Tradingrange (3,700 / 3,900) bewegt. Die Vola wird aus dem Markt `genommen` - gleichzeitig frustriert diese Range Bullen wie Baeren.

[Dritte Million]

Ausbruch gelungen - naechstes Ziel 4850. Aber wir sollten/muessten
nochmals die downside testen - schon um die nervoesen Spieler ab zuwerfen.