thailand mit schlechteren aussichten im 2.hj/entwicklung des bath - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

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führende banker thailands sehen für die zweite hälfte des jahres der entwicklung des thailändischen wirtschaftswachstums schlechtere aussichten.näheres im text.
die gegenwärtige situation der thailändischen währung,sowie der einfluß der anderen regionalen währungen.näheres im text.

Political worries likely to trim growth over next six months
Exports forecast to decline steadily

Cholada Ingsrisawang
Local economists say the second half of this year will show a slower performance than the first half, as political uncertainties lead to reduced spending and investment.
Chartchai Parasuk, first vice-president at National Finance, said exports were expected to decline steadily in the second half of this year.
January exports grew 33.5% in US dollar terms in the past year, but in May growth was recorded at only 22.7% from the same month last year.
Orders are expected to slow further as economic growth declines in Asian and US markets. Higher energy costs were also likely to cause a slowdown in growth, Dr Chartchai said, as consumers faced higher transport costs.
"Hopes that exports in the second half will spur the economy are misplaced, and we need to find other ways to boost growth," he said.
"Many have placed expectations on domestic consumption. But bank credit declined by 19% for the first five months from the year before. It`s clear that we can`t place our hopes on private spending."But analysts argue fiscal stimulus has its own limitations, as the government has expressed concern about the rising public debt and political resistance to accepting new foreign loans.
Dr Chartchai said that without action, however, the problems would only increase. A failure to revive the private sector would lead to declining tax revenues, worsening the debt problem in the long run.
Nimit Nontapuntawat, executive vice-president of Bangkok Bank, agreed that economic conditions in the second half would be worse than in the first half.
While some new spending would come from the political parties ahead of the general election, negative factors such as political uncertainties, higher oil prices and expectations of slower export growth would hurt the recovery.
Projections of growth of 4.5% and inflation of 2.5% this year were based on benchmark oil prices averaging $25 to the barrel, Dr Nimit said.
Sataporn Jinachitr, first executive vice-president at Siam Commercial Bank, said growth of 4-5% this year was satisfactory, noting that conditions now were clearly better than last year. But of concern was growth in 2001, particularly as global trade was expected to show slower growth and dent Thai exports.
Mr Sataporn said additional deficit spending of more than 2-3% of gross domestic product would be ill-advised, given the rising public debt.
"But on the brighter side, the government has succeeded in stabilising the economy, with foreign investment still made, although in the form of industrial projects rather than in the equities market," Mr Sataporn said.
Charl Kengchon, senior economist at TFB Research Institute, noted that many analysts were projecting slower world growth in 2001 and 2002, particularly in the US economy.

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Baht rebounds but outlook remains weak, say analysts

Parista Yuthamanop and Woranuj Maneerungsee

The baht rebounded slightly yesterday after reaching an 8.5-month low on Wednesday.
Trade ranged from 39.55/57 to the US dollar, up from Wednesday`s close of 39.67.
Dealers said the decline in the baht was in line with regional currencies, with the Indonesian rupiah particularly hard-hit on investor jitters over political instability and the continuity of economic reforms.
Other Asian currencies were mostly down against the US dollar, with the Singapore dollar yesterday trading at 1.7358-1.7368 to the greenback, the Philippine peso at 43.92-43.95 and the rupiah at 9,283-9,313.
Chettavee Charoenpitak, an assistant governor of the Bank of Thailand, said the baht`s decline was caused by both external and domestic factors, but that regulators were not particularly concerned.
The baht would continue to move according to market conditions, he said.
A dealer at Standard Chartered Bank said demand from importers buying dollars also contributed to the baht`s recent weakness, as well as uncertainty in the political arena.
"Weakness is likely to remain through next week. But overall, the trend is temporary and negative sentiment will likely be cleared once domestic politics settle down," he said.
Central bank economists say current account surpluses, expected to remain steady throughout the remainder of the year, would help provide support for the baht.
Others said even if the baht dropped through 40 to the US dollar, the impact on the overall economy was likely to be small.
Nateetip Tongkoa-on, a director at the Commerce Ministry`s internal trade department, said the baht`s weakness was unlikely to impact heavily on local product prices.
Inflation indices were not heavily weighed on imported materials, she said. Limited demand in the market would also restrain producers from hiking prices, while declining trends in oil prices would help offset the impact of the weaker baht on energy costs, Ms Nateetip said.

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thai airways geht auf roadshow.
geplant ist der verkauf weiterer anteile der
fluggesellschaft.näheres im text.

Thai Airways to take bids in Sept

BANGKOK -- Thai Airways International said yesterday that it would start taking bids in September from potential strategic partners for a block of 10 per cent of its shares.

Thai Airways president Thamnoon Wanglee said the national carrier would also go on a roadshow in November to promote an initial public offer (IPO) of a further 13 per cent of its stock.

It is the third time the IPO roadshow has been postponed. It was originally due to take place this month but was then delayed until September.

Mr Thamnoon said last week the airline would delay the IPO because of poor market conditions.

He said Thai Airways would not go ahead with its IPO plan if its share price remained around 37 to 38 baht a share.

He told reporters that when market sentiment is not ready, ""we can`t buck the trend``.

He said the company would be ready to announce the IPO price during the November roadshow.

The Thai government now owns about 93 per cent of Thai Airways but has said it wanted to reduce this stake to about 50 per cent within five years.

But Mr Thamnoon said the timetable for the share sale had now been put back.

The sale of the combined 23 per cent of the company would not be completed by the end of the year and the cut to below 50 per cent would take longer than five years.

He gave no further details of the timetable.

Various airlines have expressed interest in acquiring the 10 per cent in Thai Airways to be set aside for a strategic partner.

These include:


Singapore Airlines;

United Airlines;

Lufthansa;

Scandinavian Airlines System;

Air Canada;

British Airways;

Qantas Airways;

SAirGroup;

Delta Airline; an Air France. Mr Thamnoon said Thai Airways would shortlist four or five interested parties before the roadshow in November. Thai Airways shares closed unchanged at 39 baht yesterday. --Reuters
Thai Airways will go on an IPO roadshow in November

[Watcher100]

Hey content !

Das mit Thaiairways wäre doch durchaus positiv zu werten - oder sehe
ich das falsch ?
Gerade in diese Richtung muß sich Thailand mehr öffnen.Mehr ausländische Firmenbeteiligungen ( auch über 49% hinaus ),Landkauf etc
Also grundlegende Wirtschaftsreformen !
Ein Hoffnungsschimmer sind die demnächst anstehenden Wahlen im Herbst.

So long

WATCHER