Morgen wird Broadvision explodieren! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite
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Die Bekanntgabe der Quartalszahlen ist für morgen den 20.07.2000 geplant.
Analysten (siehe Text unten) erwarten, daß das Ergebnis verdoppelt wird.
von Mate972 18.07.00 14:42:30
betrifft Aktie: BROADVISION INC. DL-,0001 1343409
Ein guter Artikel zu BVSN
Fish or Cut Bait: Broadvision is still a winner
By Paul R. La Monica
Redherring.com, July 17, 2000
American revolutionary Thomas Paine referred to the latter years of the 18th century as The Age of Reason. Mark my words: No historian will use that term to describe the stock market circa 2000.
Future market anthropologists will look back at the last year and wonder what was wrong with everyone. Did new millennium angst render people incapable of objective judgment? Were too many neural cells fried from all the rays emitted by computer screens, televisions, and cellular phones? Why were so many presumably levelheaded people making totally irrational investing decisions?
The one certainty in this wildly uncertain market is that investors horrendously overreact to news -- both positive and negative -- on an almost daily basis. The latest example? Customer management software company Broadvision (Nasdaq: BVSN), which is widely viewed as one of the preëminent e-business software and solutions companies. Broadvision helps clients such as Circuit City and Nortel Networks build Web sites with personalized customer service and e-commerce transaction capabilities.
Recently, though, its stock has made wild gyrations. On Friday, July 7, the stock plunged more than 25 percent. It took a 12 percent hit on July 11, but the very next day gained 13 percent. Why such volatility?
FINE ART
It seems investors are warming to increasingly positive news from Broadvision competitor Art Technology Group (Nasdaq: ARTG). Art Technology, which makes Java-compatible e-business software that is more advanced than Broadvision`s, has added some high-profile accounts lately. On July 6, American Airlines (NYSE: AMR) announced after the market closed that it chose Art Technology to help upgrade its Web site. American had been a Broadvision customer, hence the 25 percent drop for Broadvision the following day.
On the morning of July 11, Art Technology put out a press release trumpeting that Bluelight.com, the online retailer joint venture of K-mart (NYSE: KM) and Softbank Venture Capital, was using Art`s Dynamo software. That explains Broadvision`s 11 percent drop that day. Broadvision regained some of its losses the next day, after it put out a press release to reassure investors that it wasn`t losing Wal-mart (NYSE: WMT) as a customer. Wal-Mart uses Broadvision`s software for intranet sites and its Sam`s Club warehouse business.
This is ridiculous. It isn`t healthy for investors to obsess over every flowery press release describing a new customer. Art wins a contract with American, and down goes Broadvision! The e-business software area is still in its nascent stages. Expect to see more new customer announcements from Art and Broadvision, as well as from other big players in this area, like Vignette (Nasdaq: VIGN).
In fact, rumors were circulating last week that Broadvision had beat out competitors to win a big contract with ETrade (Nasdaq: EGRP). As of this writing, the deal has not been announced, but a Broadvision spokesperson confirmed that it did win the ETrade business. Will Broadvision`s stock pop when the company puts out a press release? Possibly. Should Art Technology`s stock drop because it lost out to Broadvision? No.
OLIGOPOLIES DO EXIST
Investors seem to be forgetting a fundamental fact of big business: Oligopolies, not monopolies, tend to dominate markets. Quite often, a market is vast enough to support more than one proverbial 363-kilogram semi-erect primate (800-pound gorilla is such an overused term). Banc of America Securities analyst Greg Vogel estimates that e-business software will be a $30 billion market by 2003, quintupling from $6 billion in 1999. I`d be willing to bet that more than one company will share in this growth.
Art Technology`s recent success does not mean it`s time to ring the death knell for Broadvision. "There`s a new sheriff in town -- but there`s room for a couple of sheriffs," says Brent Thill, an analyst with CS First Boston.
Mr. Thill explains that Broadvision is able to win a lot of contracts because it offers more than just a software package. Not every corporate customer wants to build a site from scratch. Boeing (NYSE: BA), for example, recently chose Broadvision over Art and other vendors because it needed a total e-business solution and not just the technology to build a site, Mr. Thill said. American, on the other hand, wanted the technology to build its site exactly how it wanted, without any consulting from Art.
Since July 6, Broadvision stock is down 22 percent, whereas Art Technology has soared 24 percent. The market is acting as if Broadvision just swung at strike three with two out in the bottom of the ninth inning. It makes no sense, particularly when you look at the fundamentals for Broadvision and Art.
LOOK AT THE NUMBERS
Broadvision has been profitable since the second quarter of 1998, and, according to First Call, analysts are expecting earnings for this year`s second quarter to double (). Broadvision is scheduled to report its results on July 20. Art is expected to post a loss in its second quarter and is currently on track to earn a profit for the first time in the fourth quarter of this year. According to Mr. Vogel, 12 percent of Broadvision`s revenues come from dot-com companies, whereas 35 percent of Art`s revenues are dot-com related. Given the fact that Art now trades at about 34 times Vogel`s estimated 2001 revenue, and Broadvision, in contrast, trades at a multiple of 21 times 2001 revenue estimates, Art now seems to be a much riskier investment.
Don`t get me wrong -- I`m not trying to say that Art isn`t a good investment. Quite the contrary, it has momentum on its side and the technological edge. It`s just that the market is too young and too big for investors to try and pick one winner at this stage of the game.
When you look at companies in sectors with as large a market potential as e-business software, resist the urge to characterize things in simplistic winner/loser, black/white issues. A win for Art is not necessarily an irreplaceable loss for Broadvision, and vice versa. One lost account is not a trend. "People do get concerned when a high-profile customer like American Airlines decides to switch to a competitor, but so far it`s an isolated case," Mr. Vogel says.
WHAT DO YOU THINK? I`m still asking for readers to send me their thoughts on what stocks they`d like to see included in a Fish or Cut Bait Reader Index that I hope to introduce in a column not far down the road. I see no reason why Art and Broadvision can`t peacefully coexist in this index, although I think Broadvision is the better value right now. Let me know if you agree.
Analysten (siehe Text unten) erwarten, daß das Ergebnis verdoppelt wird.
von Mate972 18.07.00 14:42:30
betrifft Aktie: BROADVISION INC. DL-,0001 1343409
Ein guter Artikel zu BVSN
Fish or Cut Bait: Broadvision is still a winner
By Paul R. La Monica
Redherring.com, July 17, 2000
American revolutionary Thomas Paine referred to the latter years of the 18th century as The Age of Reason. Mark my words: No historian will use that term to describe the stock market circa 2000.
Future market anthropologists will look back at the last year and wonder what was wrong with everyone. Did new millennium angst render people incapable of objective judgment? Were too many neural cells fried from all the rays emitted by computer screens, televisions, and cellular phones? Why were so many presumably levelheaded people making totally irrational investing decisions?
The one certainty in this wildly uncertain market is that investors horrendously overreact to news -- both positive and negative -- on an almost daily basis. The latest example? Customer management software company Broadvision (Nasdaq: BVSN), which is widely viewed as one of the preëminent e-business software and solutions companies. Broadvision helps clients such as Circuit City and Nortel Networks build Web sites with personalized customer service and e-commerce transaction capabilities.
Recently, though, its stock has made wild gyrations. On Friday, July 7, the stock plunged more than 25 percent. It took a 12 percent hit on July 11, but the very next day gained 13 percent. Why such volatility?
FINE ART
It seems investors are warming to increasingly positive news from Broadvision competitor Art Technology Group (Nasdaq: ARTG). Art Technology, which makes Java-compatible e-business software that is more advanced than Broadvision`s, has added some high-profile accounts lately. On July 6, American Airlines (NYSE: AMR) announced after the market closed that it chose Art Technology to help upgrade its Web site. American had been a Broadvision customer, hence the 25 percent drop for Broadvision the following day.
On the morning of July 11, Art Technology put out a press release trumpeting that Bluelight.com, the online retailer joint venture of K-mart (NYSE: KM) and Softbank Venture Capital, was using Art`s Dynamo software. That explains Broadvision`s 11 percent drop that day. Broadvision regained some of its losses the next day, after it put out a press release to reassure investors that it wasn`t losing Wal-mart (NYSE: WMT) as a customer. Wal-Mart uses Broadvision`s software for intranet sites and its Sam`s Club warehouse business.
This is ridiculous. It isn`t healthy for investors to obsess over every flowery press release describing a new customer. Art wins a contract with American, and down goes Broadvision! The e-business software area is still in its nascent stages. Expect to see more new customer announcements from Art and Broadvision, as well as from other big players in this area, like Vignette (Nasdaq: VIGN).
In fact, rumors were circulating last week that Broadvision had beat out competitors to win a big contract with ETrade (Nasdaq: EGRP). As of this writing, the deal has not been announced, but a Broadvision spokesperson confirmed that it did win the ETrade business. Will Broadvision`s stock pop when the company puts out a press release? Possibly. Should Art Technology`s stock drop because it lost out to Broadvision? No.
OLIGOPOLIES DO EXIST
Investors seem to be forgetting a fundamental fact of big business: Oligopolies, not monopolies, tend to dominate markets. Quite often, a market is vast enough to support more than one proverbial 363-kilogram semi-erect primate (800-pound gorilla is such an overused term). Banc of America Securities analyst Greg Vogel estimates that e-business software will be a $30 billion market by 2003, quintupling from $6 billion in 1999. I`d be willing to bet that more than one company will share in this growth.
Art Technology`s recent success does not mean it`s time to ring the death knell for Broadvision. "There`s a new sheriff in town -- but there`s room for a couple of sheriffs," says Brent Thill, an analyst with CS First Boston.
Mr. Thill explains that Broadvision is able to win a lot of contracts because it offers more than just a software package. Not every corporate customer wants to build a site from scratch. Boeing (NYSE: BA), for example, recently chose Broadvision over Art and other vendors because it needed a total e-business solution and not just the technology to build a site, Mr. Thill said. American, on the other hand, wanted the technology to build its site exactly how it wanted, without any consulting from Art.
Since July 6, Broadvision stock is down 22 percent, whereas Art Technology has soared 24 percent. The market is acting as if Broadvision just swung at strike three with two out in the bottom of the ninth inning. It makes no sense, particularly when you look at the fundamentals for Broadvision and Art.
LOOK AT THE NUMBERS Broadvision has been profitable since the second quarter of 1998, and, according to First Call, analysts are expecting earnings for this year`s second quarter to double (
). Broadvision is scheduled to report its results on July 20. Art is expected to post a loss in its second quarter and is currently on track to earn a profit for the first time in the fourth quarter of this year. According to Mr. Vogel, 12 percent of Broadvision`s revenues come from dot-com companies, whereas 35 percent of Art`s revenues are dot-com related. Given the fact that Art now trades at about 34 times Vogel`s estimated 2001 revenue, and Broadvision, in contrast, trades at a multiple of 21 times 2001 revenue estimates, Art now seems to be a much riskier investment. Don`t get me wrong -- I`m not trying to say that Art isn`t a good investment. Quite the contrary, it has momentum on its side and the technological edge. It`s just that the market is too young and too big for investors to try and pick one winner at this stage of the game.
When you look at companies in sectors with as large a market potential as e-business software, resist the urge to characterize things in simplistic winner/loser, black/white issues. A win for Art is not necessarily an irreplaceable loss for Broadvision, and vice versa. One lost account is not a trend. "People do get concerned when a high-profile customer like American Airlines decides to switch to a competitor, but so far it`s an isolated case," Mr. Vogel says.
WHAT DO YOU THINK? I`m still asking for readers to send me their thoughts on what stocks they`d like to see included in a Fish or Cut Bait Reader Index that I hope to introduce in a column not far down the road. I see no reason why Art and Broadvision can`t peacefully coexist in this index, although I think Broadvision is the better value right now. Let me know if you agree.
Morgen wird ein Fest...
Als die letzten Quartalszahlen (1.Quartal) von Broadvision kamen, gab es ein Kurssprung von über 20%.....
Die Analysten erwarten, daß die Ergebnisse in diesem 2. Quartal verdoppelt werden (seit 1998 nur noch
schwarze Zahlen).
Nur mal so zur Erinnerung!
Die Analysten erwarten, daß die Ergebnisse in diesem 2. Quartal verdoppelt werden (seit 1998 nur noch
schwarze Zahlen).
Nur mal so zur Erinnerung!
Hallo Stier,
hier die letzte Quartalsmeldung (Quelle: Comdirect.de)
Freitag, 28.04.2000, 12:20
Aktie im Fokus: Broadvision - Überflieger nach Empfehlungen
und Q1-Zahlen
FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Die Aktien von Broadvision ,
einem in den USA und Frankfurt notierten Anbieter von
E-Commerce-Software stiegen am Freitagvormittag 13,44% oder
5,45 auf 46,00 Euro, während der Nemax-50-Performance-Index
3,60% auf 7083,34 Euro kletterte. An der amerikanischen
Nasdaq schossen die Papiere am Donnerstag 23,55% auf 40 USD in
die Höhe.
Die Jubelstimmung des Marktes sei auf die am Mittwoch veröffentlichten Quartalszahlen (Q1 2000) und auf Kaufempfehlungen
verschiedenen Banken zurückzuführen, sagte ein Händler im Gespräch mit dpa-AFX. Der Umsatz hatte sich mehr als
verdreifacht, der Vorsteuergewinn kletterte sogar um 429% auf 14,4 Mio. Dollar je Aktie.
Credit Suisse First Boston hatte die Einstufung für Broadvision mit "Buy" bestätigt. Auch Hornblower und Fischer, die
den Titel in ihr Neuer Markt-Musterportfolio aufgenommen haben, beließen am Freitag das "Kauf"-Rating. Dies habe den
zuletzt starkt "verprügelten Titel" wieder gewaltig auf die Sprünge geholfen, kommentierte ein anderer Händler den Anstieg.
Falls der Titel die fünfziger-Marke nehme, sei charttechnisch der Weg nach oben frei./ep/kg
hier die letzte Quartalsmeldung (Quelle: Comdirect.de)
Freitag, 28.04.2000, 12:20
Aktie im Fokus: Broadvision - Überflieger nach Empfehlungen
und Q1-Zahlen
FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Die Aktien von Broadvision ,
einem in den USA und Frankfurt notierten Anbieter von
E-Commerce-Software stiegen am Freitagvormittag 13,44% oder
5,45 auf 46,00 Euro, während der Nemax-50-Performance-Index
3,60% auf 7083,34 Euro kletterte. An der amerikanischen
Nasdaq schossen die Papiere am Donnerstag 23,55% auf 40 USD in
die Höhe.
Die Jubelstimmung des Marktes sei auf die am Mittwoch veröffentlichten Quartalszahlen (Q1 2000) und auf Kaufempfehlungen
verschiedenen Banken zurückzuführen, sagte ein Händler im Gespräch mit dpa-AFX. Der Umsatz hatte sich mehr als
verdreifacht, der Vorsteuergewinn kletterte sogar um 429% auf 14,4 Mio. Dollar je Aktie.
Credit Suisse First Boston hatte die Einstufung für Broadvision mit "Buy" bestätigt. Auch Hornblower und Fischer, die
den Titel in ihr Neuer Markt-Musterportfolio aufgenommen haben, beließen am Freitag das "Kauf"-Rating. Dies habe den
zuletzt starkt "verprügelten Titel" wieder gewaltig auf die Sprünge geholfen, kommentierte ein anderer Händler den Anstieg.
Falls der Titel die fünfziger-Marke nehme, sei charttechnisch der Weg nach oben frei./ep/kg
Nur mal am Rande gefragt:
Wenn Analysten im Vorfeld von einer Ergebnisverdoppelung (!!) ausgehen, ist dann die Erwartungshaltung nicht ein wenig sehr hoch, d.h. muss sich das Ergebnis dann nicht mindestens verdreifachen, damit sich der Kurs nicht gen Süden bewegt ?
bimbes
Wenn Analysten im Vorfeld von einer Ergebnisverdoppelung (!!) ausgehen, ist dann die Erwartungshaltung nicht ein wenig sehr hoch, d.h. muss sich das Ergebnis dann nicht mindestens verdreifachen, damit sich der Kurs nicht gen Süden bewegt ?
bimbes
Trading Spotlight
bimbes: Genauso sehe ich das auch !
Gruß von der Insel
Gruß von der Insel
wie die amis reagieren, werden wir ja sehen. die flüsterschätzungen sind bei www.whispernumbers.com
bei 0.04.
ich habe mir heute mal den call 558124 geholt.
und morgen sind wir alle schlauer bzw. ärmer oder reicher.
beste grüsse
karsten
bei 0.04.
ich habe mir heute mal den call 558124 geholt.
und morgen sind wir alle schlauer bzw. ärmer oder reicher.
beste grüsse
karsten
vorbörslicher Kurs in USA 42,00 Dollar..
Vroni
Vroni
Danke für den Tipp. Dann verkaufe ich eben erst morgen !
kann mir jemand sagen, wo man die ausserbörslichen Kurse an der nasdaq einsehen kann?
Hey gutertipp, ich hoffe Du hast recht mit Deinen Erwartungen, ich hab mich doch gestern tatsächlich hinreißen lassen bei 47 (dummerweise)nochmal nachzulegen. Wenns schiefgeht, naja, ist nicht das erste Mal, dass ich reisserischen Ankündigungen (leider) auf den Leim gehe. Bin bei allem dabei, was nichts ist (z.B: hikari, nordasia, jafco, china online, adelong etc.) Warum solls mir dann eigentlich bei broadvision besser gehn? ;-)
Hallo Germanist, den vorbörslichen Kurs findest unter http://www.island.com/
aktuell 42,75 Dollar....
Tschüss Vroni
aktuell 42,75 Dollar....
Tschüss Vroni
Der Wert schaukelt sich langsam gen die 43$.... Xetra Richtung 47
Ein sollte man nicht vergessen, vor dem Absturz wegen des AA-Deals, lag der Wert zeitweise deutlich über 60 Dollar (!), zumdindest war bei 52 Dollar ein bis dahin stabiler Boden.
Zu diesem Zeitpunkt waren die Quartalszahl noch nicht aktuell.
Seltsamerweise wurden gute Meldungen vom Markt nicht gewürdigt.
Dagegen stürzte er bei unseriösen Gerüchten wg. Wallmart.com weiter ab.
In Anbetracht der Zahlen müßte eigentlich eine Stabilisierung bei 52 Dollar drin sein.
Am NASDAQ sieht es ja momentan ganz freundlich aus.
Wenn nur nicht der Greenspan wäre, der einen schönen Strich durch die Rechnung machen könnte...
Bin gerade dabei meine Cmrc zu verkaufen und in BVSN umzuschichten...
Vielleicht wird es ein Fehler...
Schaun mer mal
Zu diesem Zeitpunkt waren die Quartalszahl noch nicht aktuell.
Seltsamerweise wurden gute Meldungen vom Markt nicht gewürdigt.
Dagegen stürzte er bei unseriösen Gerüchten wg. Wallmart.com weiter ab.
In Anbetracht der Zahlen müßte eigentlich eine Stabilisierung bei 52 Dollar drin sein.
Am NASDAQ sieht es ja momentan ganz freundlich aus.
Wenn nur nicht der Greenspan wäre, der einen schönen Strich durch die Rechnung machen könnte...
Bin gerade dabei meine Cmrc zu verkaufen und in BVSN umzuschichten...
Vielleicht wird es ein Fehler...
Schaun mer mal
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