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Hallo zusammen,
hier ein Beitrag zum Silber.
Gruß
aneises2
SILVER TO ZERO
This article is devoted to silver shorts and silver bears. The title of the article is not about when silver will reach a price of zero but rather when will all available inventories of silver be
gone. Being a silver bull has not been easy, in fact it has been one of the most trying experiences of my life. If you grew up as a nerd (before it was fashionable) and always excelled at
mathematics, went on to major in engineering, (the rocket scientist type) then took up silver analysis first as a hobby and eventually as a vocation, then the numbers just do not add up.
For several years the logic of an ever dwindling supply coupled with a static price made no sense. Thanks to Mr. Ted Butler for his work that finally shed the much needed light on the
topic. His work is extensive and if you do not believe the silver (and gold) leasing scam by now you never will. I will not discuss the leasing issue because I wish to focus on the coming
silver shortage. Since I have all but thrown in the towel I am at a point where I must admit I just do not see silver prices rising until the actual physical bullion supplies reach critically low
levels. I say this not because of my background in economics, because silver prices should have begun to rise a long time ago, I say this because the shorts have such a straggle hold on
the market that only a physical shortage is going to make the market move.
Inventories held by investors, banks, refiners, fabricators, and others have been consistently drawn down over the past decade or so. It is generally recognized that at least 1.2 billion
ounces of silver have been used. If we average the annual shortfall it comes to approximately ten million ounces per month that is being used up from the available supplies. The most
important question is not the trend, but how much silver still exists in inventory.
In fact CPM group has recently published an update on silver and it is bullish. This is what that report has to say:
Few people, if anyone, disputes the conclusion that the market is living off of inventories, and, after a decade in which perhaps 1.3 billion ounces have been used from such stocks in
industrial applications (with another 325 million ounces or so being converted into silver bullion coins), it seems reasonable to expect that these stocks are getting low.
So, we agree that silver has been used up to a great degree over the last decade or more. But the critical question is just how much silver is left? Here again I quote CPM`s latest report:
As recently as the end of 1999 there were around 113.4 million ounces in reported inventories. Another 217.7 million ounces or more may have resided in unreported bullion inventories,
for a total of around 331.1 million ounces in bullion inventories.
Bullion inventories of 331 million ounces. With an average use rate of 10 million ounces per month would be approximately 33 months of silver left. Well, since the numbers have driven
me crazy for the last several years, I am going to do what markets usually do, that is anticipate the coming shortage. First, let`s recall the fact that; Mr. Warren Buffett may still have 129
million ounces of silver that he is unlikely to sell at a price lower than he paid, particularly since he knows the long term fundamentals as well as anyone. So, we might just chop of 13
months of inventory that will not be available at the current price. This would take us to twenty months worth of silver inventory, if and only if all silver were for sale! Twenty months is
less than two years, in fact it is just over one and one half years.
Next, I would like to look at CPM`s s statement again. Another 217 million ounces may have resided in unreported bullion inventories. That fact is; CPM does not know for certain, I do
not know for certain, and you do not know for certain how much silver exists in inventory! A fact we do know is we have had more than a 250 million ounce drop in COMEX stocks from
their high point a few years ago.
What are the expectations of the owners of silver? You can bet there are a few bulls in the mix, and less and less inventory as time moves along. For sake of argument, let us predict that
the bulls and bears are evenly matched at this point. It would mean nothing, in fact if there was just one silver bull with enough cash , ala a Bunker Hunt, there is so little silver available
that just one strong hand could totally control the remaining inventory. A point that I want every reader to understand more than any other in this article is a fact that there is actually
less silver than gold available, as hard as that may be to comprehend. A large money manager could buy up enough contracts on the COMEX to control all the truly visible silver bullion
on a whim. I doubt this will happen because the CFTC rules are extremely favorable to the short side. However the point is not whether it will happen, the issue is this, such a small
amount of capital is required to control the market. I am sure some bear is thinking, what do you mean, there is less silver than gold? They mine six or seven times as much silver than gold
on an annual basis. Yes, indeed more silver is mined per year than gold. However, remember of the 500 million ounces of silver mined in the world per year, all of it is used and a deficit of
at least 120 million ounces must be met from above ground silver inventory. With less inventory than gold, and production six or seven times greater, this might suggest to us that since
they are both in deficit consumption patterns, silver should be selling for one seventh the price of gold, or something close to $40 per ounce. But even this would be too cheap! I can try
and extrapolate when, silver inventories will reach zero, but the fact is, again no one knows. But the rate is so much greater than for gold that a premium for the scarcity, should be
considered. This "scarcity" premium would suggest a price greater than one-seventh the price of gold.
What else could speed up the day of reckoning? Well, again I must give credit to Mr. Butler, because you see we know there exists a silver short position on the Comex of roughly 500
million ounces. This is what is visible, this does not count the `off market` positions. Yes, if you read Mr. Butler`s work you will discover some very interesting things about the silver
market. One fact Mr. Butler brings to light is that the Comex silver short position is the largest short position in the entire history of the commodities markets. Now, perhaps one of these
short players starts to get a little nervous and begins to cover their position. By the way there are only four truly BIG shorts. So if only one of them starts to get a little nervous and
begins to cover it will move the market up. Let`s have some fun at this point and look at how truly pathetic the shorts position is. Let`s summarize the total short position of approximately
500 million ounces on the COMEX and a billion+ ounces of physical silver in Over the Counter transactions that have been taking place for well over a decade, against what may be only
a few million ounces available at this time. There are several shorts out there, Bullion Bank`s, several mining companies, and many technical hedge funds. Now compare the OTC billion
ounce short position to what`s really available. At a minimum of one to ten ratio, in other words for every single ounce of silver that was physically "borrowed," only one-tenth of one
ounce is sitting in the COMEX. Since we`re in a genuine deficit, no supplies are available from mine production, effectively, to cover the shorts, only existing stocks. This situation is as
explosive as it can get. Most readers know that in a short squeeze, holders of inventory will hold even tighter, it`s human emotion. Also once the silver squeeze gets started, many
momentum players will jump on the long side of the silver market.
Once any of the Shorts decide to cover, the fun begins, because Mr. Short now has to cover ten ounces of silver with only one available. This is why as Mr. Butler has pointed out so
many times the "leasing of metals" is Fraudulent. The Lessor moved the metal to someone who sold it into the market and now the fact is the metal is gone forever! What price will silver
have to reach when the panic starts? How are the loans going to be paid back? How do so few ounces of physical cover over one billion ounces that have been loaned out over the past
decade? I do not have a concise answer, however recent history in the palladium market does give us some clues. First who ever heard of having to put up margin at two or three times
the cash (fully paid ) position? Well, check the rule changes in palladium recently. Look at how the CFTC can change the rules to suit their needs. To stop delivery of a commodity
contract held by a long is against everything the free market stands for. In fact any silver bulls as old as me will remember the CFTC rule change in 1980, when the Hunt`s had cornered the
silver market. Only sell orders were permitted! The commodities exchange will do everything in its power to deny delivery to the longs. This can be verified by recent history, again look
at the palladium market.
What is the reader to do with this information. Act of course, buy physical silver and store it where you can go and visit it from time to time. I am not trying to be funny here, I truly
believe that the paper silver market will cease to exist within the next three to four years, there will be no forwards, options, or future`s contracts for silver, all metal will come to market by
way of the cash only system. So, my readers go ahead and beat the shorts at their own game, look ahead and buy physical silver for cash now!
With the more than 120 million ounce annual shortfall between new production and total consumption, the world is heavily dependent upon above ground stocks. Silver is the cheapest
today in constant dollars as it has ever been in modern history. As the pitifully small supplies are depleted, the price will rise and continue to rise into the future as far as I or anyone can
see.
David Morgan
silverguru22@hotmail.com
20 October 2000
hier ein Beitrag zum Silber.
Gruß
aneises2
SILVER TO ZERO
This article is devoted to silver shorts and silver bears. The title of the article is not about when silver will reach a price of zero but rather when will all available inventories of silver be
gone. Being a silver bull has not been easy, in fact it has been one of the most trying experiences of my life. If you grew up as a nerd (before it was fashionable) and always excelled at
mathematics, went on to major in engineering, (the rocket scientist type) then took up silver analysis first as a hobby and eventually as a vocation, then the numbers just do not add up.
For several years the logic of an ever dwindling supply coupled with a static price made no sense. Thanks to Mr. Ted Butler for his work that finally shed the much needed light on the
topic. His work is extensive and if you do not believe the silver (and gold) leasing scam by now you never will. I will not discuss the leasing issue because I wish to focus on the coming
silver shortage. Since I have all but thrown in the towel I am at a point where I must admit I just do not see silver prices rising until the actual physical bullion supplies reach critically low
levels. I say this not because of my background in economics, because silver prices should have begun to rise a long time ago, I say this because the shorts have such a straggle hold on
the market that only a physical shortage is going to make the market move.
Inventories held by investors, banks, refiners, fabricators, and others have been consistently drawn down over the past decade or so. It is generally recognized that at least 1.2 billion
ounces of silver have been used. If we average the annual shortfall it comes to approximately ten million ounces per month that is being used up from the available supplies. The most
important question is not the trend, but how much silver still exists in inventory.
In fact CPM group has recently published an update on silver and it is bullish. This is what that report has to say:
Few people, if anyone, disputes the conclusion that the market is living off of inventories, and, after a decade in which perhaps 1.3 billion ounces have been used from such stocks in
industrial applications (with another 325 million ounces or so being converted into silver bullion coins), it seems reasonable to expect that these stocks are getting low.
So, we agree that silver has been used up to a great degree over the last decade or more. But the critical question is just how much silver is left? Here again I quote CPM`s latest report:
As recently as the end of 1999 there were around 113.4 million ounces in reported inventories. Another 217.7 million ounces or more may have resided in unreported bullion inventories,
for a total of around 331.1 million ounces in bullion inventories.
Bullion inventories of 331 million ounces. With an average use rate of 10 million ounces per month would be approximately 33 months of silver left. Well, since the numbers have driven
me crazy for the last several years, I am going to do what markets usually do, that is anticipate the coming shortage. First, let`s recall the fact that; Mr. Warren Buffett may still have 129
million ounces of silver that he is unlikely to sell at a price lower than he paid, particularly since he knows the long term fundamentals as well as anyone. So, we might just chop of 13
months of inventory that will not be available at the current price. This would take us to twenty months worth of silver inventory, if and only if all silver were for sale! Twenty months is
less than two years, in fact it is just over one and one half years.
Next, I would like to look at CPM`s s statement again. Another 217 million ounces may have resided in unreported bullion inventories. That fact is; CPM does not know for certain, I do
not know for certain, and you do not know for certain how much silver exists in inventory! A fact we do know is we have had more than a 250 million ounce drop in COMEX stocks from
their high point a few years ago.
What are the expectations of the owners of silver? You can bet there are a few bulls in the mix, and less and less inventory as time moves along. For sake of argument, let us predict that
the bulls and bears are evenly matched at this point. It would mean nothing, in fact if there was just one silver bull with enough cash , ala a Bunker Hunt, there is so little silver available
that just one strong hand could totally control the remaining inventory. A point that I want every reader to understand more than any other in this article is a fact that there is actually
less silver than gold available, as hard as that may be to comprehend. A large money manager could buy up enough contracts on the COMEX to control all the truly visible silver bullion
on a whim. I doubt this will happen because the CFTC rules are extremely favorable to the short side. However the point is not whether it will happen, the issue is this, such a small
amount of capital is required to control the market. I am sure some bear is thinking, what do you mean, there is less silver than gold? They mine six or seven times as much silver than gold
on an annual basis. Yes, indeed more silver is mined per year than gold. However, remember of the 500 million ounces of silver mined in the world per year, all of it is used and a deficit of
at least 120 million ounces must be met from above ground silver inventory. With less inventory than gold, and production six or seven times greater, this might suggest to us that since
they are both in deficit consumption patterns, silver should be selling for one seventh the price of gold, or something close to $40 per ounce. But even this would be too cheap! I can try
and extrapolate when, silver inventories will reach zero, but the fact is, again no one knows. But the rate is so much greater than for gold that a premium for the scarcity, should be
considered. This "scarcity" premium would suggest a price greater than one-seventh the price of gold.
What else could speed up the day of reckoning? Well, again I must give credit to Mr. Butler, because you see we know there exists a silver short position on the Comex of roughly 500
million ounces. This is what is visible, this does not count the `off market` positions. Yes, if you read Mr. Butler`s work you will discover some very interesting things about the silver
market. One fact Mr. Butler brings to light is that the Comex silver short position is the largest short position in the entire history of the commodities markets. Now, perhaps one of these
short players starts to get a little nervous and begins to cover their position. By the way there are only four truly BIG shorts. So if only one of them starts to get a little nervous and
begins to cover it will move the market up. Let`s have some fun at this point and look at how truly pathetic the shorts position is. Let`s summarize the total short position of approximately
500 million ounces on the COMEX and a billion+ ounces of physical silver in Over the Counter transactions that have been taking place for well over a decade, against what may be only
a few million ounces available at this time. There are several shorts out there, Bullion Bank`s, several mining companies, and many technical hedge funds. Now compare the OTC billion
ounce short position to what`s really available. At a minimum of one to ten ratio, in other words for every single ounce of silver that was physically "borrowed," only one-tenth of one
ounce is sitting in the COMEX. Since we`re in a genuine deficit, no supplies are available from mine production, effectively, to cover the shorts, only existing stocks. This situation is as
explosive as it can get. Most readers know that in a short squeeze, holders of inventory will hold even tighter, it`s human emotion. Also once the silver squeeze gets started, many
momentum players will jump on the long side of the silver market.
Once any of the Shorts decide to cover, the fun begins, because Mr. Short now has to cover ten ounces of silver with only one available. This is why as Mr. Butler has pointed out so
many times the "leasing of metals" is Fraudulent. The Lessor moved the metal to someone who sold it into the market and now the fact is the metal is gone forever! What price will silver
have to reach when the panic starts? How are the loans going to be paid back? How do so few ounces of physical cover over one billion ounces that have been loaned out over the past
decade? I do not have a concise answer, however recent history in the palladium market does give us some clues. First who ever heard of having to put up margin at two or three times
the cash (fully paid ) position? Well, check the rule changes in palladium recently. Look at how the CFTC can change the rules to suit their needs. To stop delivery of a commodity
contract held by a long is against everything the free market stands for. In fact any silver bulls as old as me will remember the CFTC rule change in 1980, when the Hunt`s had cornered the
silver market. Only sell orders were permitted! The commodities exchange will do everything in its power to deny delivery to the longs. This can be verified by recent history, again look
at the palladium market.
What is the reader to do with this information. Act of course, buy physical silver and store it where you can go and visit it from time to time. I am not trying to be funny here, I truly
believe that the paper silver market will cease to exist within the next three to four years, there will be no forwards, options, or future`s contracts for silver, all metal will come to market by
way of the cash only system. So, my readers go ahead and beat the shorts at their own game, look ahead and buy physical silver for cash now!
With the more than 120 million ounce annual shortfall between new production and total consumption, the world is heavily dependent upon above ground stocks. Silver is the cheapest
today in constant dollars as it has ever been in modern history. As the pitifully small supplies are depleted, the price will rise and continue to rise into the future as far as I or anyone can
see.
David Morgan
silverguru22@hotmail.com
20 October 2000
von GFMS, ein wunderbarer KONTRAINDIKATOR:
Wed, 01 Nov 2000, 9:12am MEZ
Wachsendes Angebot drückt Silberpreis nach unten
London, 30. Oktober (Bloomberg) - Der Silberpreis leidet unter einem Anstieg der Produktionsmenge um 7 Prozent sowie einem begrenzten Wachstum bei der Nachfrage nach Silber für die Herstellung von Schmuck und Tafelbesteck, berichtete Gold Fields Minerals Services. Der Silberpreis gab in diesem Jahr bisher um 12 Prozent nach.
Der Anstieg der Produktion in Mexiko, dem grössten Anbieter des Metalls, sowie Australien und Peru, dürfte dazu beigetragen haben, dass die weltweite Silberförderung um 6,5 Prozent gestiegen ist. Gleichzeitig ist das Wachstum beim Silberverbrauch auf 2,4 Prozent gefallen, verglichen mit noch fünf Prozent im letzten Jahr, erklärte das in London ansässige Marktforschungsunternehmen.
Die Nachfrage nach Silber ist gefallen, weil Indien, der grösste Käufer, eine Dürre- und Überschwemmungsperiode erlitt. Diese hat das persönliche Einkommen in dem Land mit der weltweit zweithöchsten Bevölkerungszahl, reduziert. ,Schmuck und Silberwaren werden mit grösster Wahrscheinlichkeit im Jahr 2000 weniger Silber absorbieren," beschreibt Gold Fields die Situation in einem Bericht. ,Die Ursache hierfür ist die schwache Nachfrage aus Indien."
Dennoch erhöht sich der Einsatz von Silber für die industrielle Produktion um über zehn Prozent jährlich, geht aus dem Bericht hervor.
Silber verlor in London sechs Cents oder 1,3 Prozent auf 4,685 Dollar je Unze. Der Bericht spezifizierte nicht die tatsächlich produzierte und nachgefragte Menge.
Für mich eine weitere gute Bestätigung des obigen englischen Artikels p r o Silber!
Gruss
TFischer
Wed, 01 Nov 2000, 9:12am MEZ
Wachsendes Angebot drückt Silberpreis nach unten
London, 30. Oktober (Bloomberg) - Der Silberpreis leidet unter einem Anstieg der Produktionsmenge um 7 Prozent sowie einem begrenzten Wachstum bei der Nachfrage nach Silber für die Herstellung von Schmuck und Tafelbesteck, berichtete Gold Fields Minerals Services. Der Silberpreis gab in diesem Jahr bisher um 12 Prozent nach.
Der Anstieg der Produktion in Mexiko, dem grössten Anbieter des Metalls, sowie Australien und Peru, dürfte dazu beigetragen haben, dass die weltweite Silberförderung um 6,5 Prozent gestiegen ist. Gleichzeitig ist das Wachstum beim Silberverbrauch auf 2,4 Prozent gefallen, verglichen mit noch fünf Prozent im letzten Jahr, erklärte das in London ansässige Marktforschungsunternehmen.
Die Nachfrage nach Silber ist gefallen, weil Indien, der grösste Käufer, eine Dürre- und Überschwemmungsperiode erlitt. Diese hat das persönliche Einkommen in dem Land mit der weltweit zweithöchsten Bevölkerungszahl, reduziert. ,Schmuck und Silberwaren werden mit grösster Wahrscheinlichkeit im Jahr 2000 weniger Silber absorbieren," beschreibt Gold Fields die Situation in einem Bericht. ,Die Ursache hierfür ist die schwache Nachfrage aus Indien."
Dennoch erhöht sich der Einsatz von Silber für die industrielle Produktion um über zehn Prozent jährlich, geht aus dem Bericht hervor.
Silber verlor in London sechs Cents oder 1,3 Prozent auf 4,685 Dollar je Unze. Der Bericht spezifizierte nicht die tatsächlich produzierte und nachgefragte Menge.
Für mich eine weitere gute Bestätigung des obigen englischen Artikels p r o Silber!
Gruss
TFischer
also kaufen wenns donnert, oder ?
ich habe schon
665232
ich habe schon
665232
William Fleckenstein schreibt in seinem Marktbericht vom 3.11.2000:
"... the short position on silver is closing in on one of the lowest
that we`ve seen. This might be the precursor of some signs of life
in those markets."
Fleckenstein ist zwar langfristig bullish für Silber (und sitzt als
director im board von Panamerican Silver), hat sich aber in den letzten
Monaten über die kurzfristigen Aussichten von Silber (und Gold)
nicht optimistisch geäußert.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com
Leghorn
"... the short position on silver is closing in on one of the lowest
that we`ve seen. This might be the precursor of some signs of life
in those markets."
Fleckenstein ist zwar langfristig bullish für Silber (und sitzt als
director im board von Panamerican Silver), hat sich aber in den letzten
Monaten über die kurzfristigen Aussichten von Silber (und Gold)
nicht optimistisch geäußert.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com
Leghorn
Wer statt in OS in Silberminen investieren möchte: Pan American Silver gilt als eine Art Blue Chip unter den Silberminen. Wird zwar nur an der Nasdaq gehandelt (etwas höhere Gebühren), ist aber substanzstärker als die in D gehandelten Couer d` Alene, Hecla, Sunshine. Kurse z.B. bei comdirect unter PAAS; Homepage www.panamericansilver.com.
Trading Spotlight
Hallo Silberfreunde,
ich habe einen guten Artikel gefunden, der die üblichen Pro-Argumente zusammenfasst:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/mcalvany110900pv.htm…
Gruss
BT
ich habe einen guten Artikel gefunden, der die üblichen Pro-Argumente zusammenfasst:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/mcalvany110900pv.htm…
Gruss
BT
Nevertheless,
der Silber-Chart sieht wirklich mies aus...und gerade das hat irgenwie etwas reizvolles .
Macvin
der Silber-Chart sieht wirklich mies aus...und gerade das hat irgenwie etwas reizvolles .
Macvin
Hallo zusammen,
Silber als Ersatz für Wärmeleitpaste in Hochleistungskühlkörpern der PC Industrie. Die gute Leitfähigkeit und das dehnbare Material schmigt sich die Silberplatte an den Prozessor an.
Als los PC s kaufen.
Gruß Basic
Silber als Ersatz für Wärmeleitpaste in Hochleistungskühlkörpern der PC Industrie. Die gute Leitfähigkeit und das dehnbare Material schmigt sich die Silberplatte an den Prozessor an.
Als los PC s kaufen.
Gruß Basic
Danke bt,
guter Artikel, der ein Hausse-Szenario entwirft ohne die Leerverkäufe zu erwähnen.
Interessant, daß Silber auch industriell verbraucht wird und damit verloren ist, während alles geförderte Gold im Gebrauch (nicht Verbrauch) ist.
Für den Investor stellt sich die Frage, wie er am besten investiert, wenn er bei der Rally voll dabei sein will. Ich finde das schwierig.
guter Artikel, der ein Hausse-Szenario entwirft ohne die Leerverkäufe zu erwähnen.
Interessant, daß Silber auch industriell verbraucht wird und damit verloren ist, während alles geförderte Gold im Gebrauch (nicht Verbrauch) ist.
Für den Investor stellt sich die Frage, wie er am besten investiert, wenn er bei der Rally voll dabei sein will. Ich finde das schwierig.
Super Artikel von David Morgan. Die beste Internetseite in Deutsch zu diesem Thema: www.weigl-fdl.de .
Inhalt: gute Fundamentalanalyse mit Silberbilanzen der letzten 10 Jahre, Hintergründe zur Buffet- und Hunt-Story, Hinweise für Depotstrategien, etc.
Inhalt: gute Fundamentalanalyse mit Silberbilanzen der letzten 10 Jahre, Hintergründe zur Buffet- und Hunt-Story, Hinweise für Depotstrategien, etc.
@tin
665232
665232
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