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SIA offers upbeat chip sales forecast


By Janet Haney, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 6:57 PM ET Nov 1, 2000

Newswatch
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SAN JOSE, Calif. (CBS.MW) -- On a day when semiconductor stocks searched for positive movement, the Semiconductor Industry Association, offered its upbeat growth forecast for 2000-2003.
The SIA reported late Wednesday that worldwide chip sales are expected to grow by 37 percent to $205 billion in 2000, crossing the $200 billion mark for the first time. In 2001, the SIA predicts sales will increase by 22 percent to $249 billion. By 2003, global semiconductor sales should reach $319 billion, the SIA said.

"Responding to the challenges associated with the redefining and revitalization of the global communications system will propel the semiconductor industry toward the $1 trillion goal in the next decade," said Wilfred J. Corrigan, LSI Logic chairman and chief executive officer, in a statement.

"The PC is still a major growth driver, but for much of the industry there are faster growth opportunities associated with the new information-based economy," he added.

The industry trade association believes the need for communications chips used for data networking, broadband, wireless and optoelectronics will continue to help drive sales, along with demand for PCs.

Debate continues

The news contradicts what some analysts said Wednesday regarding the ongoing debate about the strength of the semiconductor industry.

JP Morgan said today that it`s "backing off" from its bullish semiconductor sector and chip cycle outlook. Analysts Terry Ragsdale and Daan Coster said the demand curve is still growing, yet on a gentler slope than what was thought a quarter or two ago.

"In the meantime, supply has risen and continues to do so, and the weaker-than-expected demand has brought the supply and demand curves together sooner than we expected," the analysts wrote in a research note. Ragsdale and Coster added that even if demand isn`t bad, an inventory correction is possible.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter cast a cautious tone over the semiconductor equipment market. While chip equipment sales are not included in the SIA`s numbers, it`s important to take note of growth for this industry.

"Equipment stocks are likely to be in a multi-quarter trading range until visibility for growth rate re-acceleration in the semiconductor industry appears once again," Morgan Stanley analyst Jay Deahna wrote in a research note.



So, who`s right? Investors will surely cast their votes Thursday, after semiconductor issues were tossed aside Wednesday. Read Chip Stocks.

The topsy-turvy Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX: news, msgs) , which tracks 16 chip and chip equipment stocks, is well off its high of 1,362.10 reached in March. The index is barely above the level that it started the year at -- 713.20.

Breakin` it down

Furthermore, the SIA believes such product categories as flash memory, digital signal processors, programmable logic devices, analog and others will benefit from new wired and wireless applications.

Companies that make such products include, Intel (INTC: news, msgs) , Advanced Micro Devices (AMD: news, msgs) , Texas Instruments (TXN: news, msgs) , Altera (ALTR: news, msgs) , Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC: news, msgs) , to name a few.

Additionally, the flash memory market is expected to jump 130 percent this year to $10 billion, reaching $23 billion in 2003. Flash memory chips are used for wireless handsets, digital imaging and other applications.

Likewise, the analog chip market, important to the telecommunications industry, will increase 39 percent this year and 20 percent to $37 billion in 2001.

Microprocessors, the brains of a PC and other devices, will grow 11 percent to $30 billion this year, and 6 percent to $32 billion in 2001, the SIA said.

The volatile DRAM market is expected to increase by 48 percent this year, and grow to $52 billion in 2003. Micron Technology (MU: news, msgs) is just one stock that falls prey to the ups and downs of spot pricing in the DRAM market.

Lastly, the SIA said the Americas would continue to be the world`s largest market, while Asia-Pacific is the fastest growing segment. The Americas are projected to rise by 34 percent this year to $64 billion. By 2003, the SIA predicts that number will reach $96 billion.

The Asia Pacific market should grow to $85 billion in 2003.

Quelle: http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/y…