Tagesbericht: Gold, Analyse: Goldfields (Australien) - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Goldhotline]

Tagesbericht

Gold bei 265 $/oz (±0), Goldaktien uneinh., Analyse: Goldfields (Australien)

Der Goldpreis zeigte gestern wieder die typische Schwäche im New Yorker Handel, die seit
einigen Wochen zu beobachten ist. Im Handelsverlauf fiel der Goldpreis von 266 auf 263,50 $/oz
zurück. Im Handel in Sydney und Hongkong kann sich der Goldpreis heute morgen wieder auf
265 $/oz erholen. Die Preise für Platin und Palladium konnten die Vortagesgewinne behaupten.
Die Goldaktien notieren weltweit uneinheitlich wobei die nordamerikanischen Standardwerte zur
Schwäche neigten und die australischen Werte teilweise deutlich zulegen konnten.

Der nordamerikanische Goldminenindex fiel um 1,0 % oder 0,4 auf 43,4 Punkte zurück. Bei den
Standardwerten gaben Freeport 5,5 % und Homestake 4,6 % ab. Meridian konnten um 1,3 % und
Franco-Nevada um 1,1 % zulegen. Bei den kleineren Werten konnte sich Echo Bay um 10,0 %
erholen. Der Platin- und Palladiumproduzent Stillwater gab um 5,0 % nach.

Die in New York gehandelten südafrikanischen Werte notierten uneinheitlich. Harmony gewann
0,8 %. Gold Fields gab um 1,1 % nach.

Der australische Goldminenindex verbesserte sich um 0,7 % oder 4,6 auf 671,7 Punkte. Bei den
Standardwerten stiegen Goldfields um 8,6 % und Normandy NFM um 5,3 %. Bei den kleineren
Werten zogen St Barbara 10,7 %, Herald 5,3 % und Perilya 4,0 % an. Der Explorationswert
Tribune Resources haussierte um 15,7 % auf ein neues Allzeithoch.


Die aktuellen Topempfehlungen der Goldaktien (maximale Kauflimite in Klammern):

Nach dem Kursanstieg wurde Franco-Nevada zu einer Halteposition.

Australien:
Sicherheitsorientiert:
Delta Gold 1,01 A$ (2,40 A$), Normandy Mining 0,96 A$ (1,20 A$, aktuelle Dividendenrendite 6,3
%), Pacmin 1,37 A$ (1,60 A$), Lihir 0,56 A$ (0,70 A$), Newcrest 3,73 A$ (4,00 A$), Sons of
Gwalia 5,85 A$ (4,80 A$, jetzt eine Halteposition)

Spekulativ:
New Hampton 0,23 A$ (0,26 A$), Hill 50 0,78 A$ (1,10 A$), Spinifex 0,115 A$ (0,15 A$), Otter
Gold 0,30 A$ (0,32 A$), Tribune Resources 1,33 A$ (0,25 A$, jetzt eine Halteposition), Aquarius
Platinum 8,45 A$ (2,80 A$, jetzt eine Halteposition).

Südafrika:
Sicherheitsorientiert:
Harmony 4,75 Euro (6,50 Euro), Gold Fields 3,46 Euro (4,50 Euro), Anglogold (ADR zu 1/2Aktie;
GB) 17,15 Euro (28,00 Euro)

Spekulativ:
Durban Roodepoort Deep 0,95 Euro (1,80 Euro)

Nordamerika:
Sicherheitsorientiert:
Placer Dome 8,00 $ (12,00 $), Freeport 7,50 $ (16,00 $), Meridian 5,0625 $ (8,00 $), Goldcorp
6,125 $ (7,00 $), Iamgold, 2,70 C$ (3,00 C$), Homestake 3,9375 $ (8,00 $), Newmont 13,4375 $
(22,00 $), Barrick 13,3125 $ (18,00 $), Battle Mountain 1,375 $ (2,00 $), Franco-Nevada 14,15 C$
(14,00 C$, jetzt eine Halteposition)

Spekulativ:
TVX 1,5625 $ (5,00 $), Kinross 0,40625 (13/32) $ (1,25 $)

Bemerkungen:

-Achtung: Wegen der Marktenge vieler Werte müssen alle Orders limitiert werden!

-Bis auf Otter Gold werden alle Werte auch in Deutschland gehandelt.

-Bei New Hampton wurden am 24.12.99 Mineral Deposits Limited (MDL) Aktien im Verhältnis von
5 MDL für 18 New Hampton Aktien und Gratisoptionen im Verhältnis von 1 Option, Laufzeit
31.05.01, Basis 0,23 A$ für 2 New Hampton Aktien abgeschlagen.

-Am 31.07.00 wurden die Aktien der TVX im Verhältnis von 5 alten Aktien zu 1 neuen Aktien
zusammengelegt.


Unternehmensmeldung
(AUS=Australien, NA=Nordamerika, SA=Südafrika, $=US$, MKP=Marktkapitalisierung),
Marktkapitalisierung immer in A$, Produktionskosten immer in US$

02.11.00 Goldfields (AUS, MKP 290 Mio A$) meldet für das Septemberquartal eine
Goldproduktion von 139.991 oz, was einer Jahresrate von 560.000 oz entspricht. Die großen
Schwankungen in der Produktion sind auf die zeitweise Verpachtung der Paddington Anlage an
Delta Gold (AUS) zurückzuführen, die ihre Erze aus der Golden Feather Lagerstätte in dieser
Anlage verarbeitet. Die Nettoproduktionskosten konnten weiter auf 161 $/oz gedrückt werden, so
daß bei einem Verkaufspreis von 323 $/oz mit einer Bruttogewinnspanne von 62 $/oz gearbeitet
werden konnte. Neben der soliden Produktion in der Porgera Mine, die erneut über 50.000 oz
lieferte, einer Rekordproduktion in der Henty Mine und dem zweitbesten Quartalsergebnis in der
Kundana Mine, stand der Explorationserfolg im East Kundana Projekt im Mittelpunkt des
Interesses. Goldfields hält einen Anteil von 51 %, Tribune Resources (AUS) einen Anteil von 37
% und Rand Mining (AUS) einen Anteil von 12 % des Projektes. Die Ressource konnte
mittlerweile auf 386.000 oz (Goldfields Anteil) erweitert werden, wobei ein außergewöhnlich hoher
Goldgehalt von 35,2 g/t hohe Gewinne erwarten läßt. Auf der Basis der Gewinne für das
Geschäftsjahr 1999/2000 liegt das aktuelle KGV bei 7,4. Die Lebensdauer der Reserven erreicht
6,7 Jahre, die Lebensdauer der Ressourcen 11,0 Jahre und die Dividendenrendite 2,8 %.
Goldfields verfolgt eine aggressive Wachstumsstrategie und kündigt nach der Eingliederung der
Goldfields Kalgoorlie, der Übernahme der Gilt-Edged Mining und dem Kauf eines Anteils von 49
% am White Foil Projekt von Mineral Commodities (AUS) weitere Übernahmen an.
Übernahmeversuche der Joint Venture Partner im East Kundana Projekt Tribune Resources und
Rand Mining sind daher zu erwarten. Goldfields könnte jedoch selbst zu einem Übernahmeziel
werden nachdem die südafrikanische Harmony (SA) ihren Anteil von 19,95 auf 22,95 %
ausgeweitet hat.

Beurteilung: Goldfields eignet sich weiterhin als wertvolle Beimischung für ein australisches
Standardwertedepot, das durch den Explorationserfolg im East Kundana Projekt weiteres
Wachstums- und Gewinnpotential aufbauen konnte.

Empfehlung: Halten, aktueller Kurs 1,77 A$. Vorsichtige Zukäufe erscheinen für Neueinsteiger
auch auf dem aktuellen Kursniveau noch vielversprechend (vgl. Halteempfehlung am 01.08.00 bei
1,54 A$).

Die Goldhotline

[TFischer]

Diese sehr merkwürdige Verhalten des Goldmarktes wurde analysiert:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/clawar103000.html

Dazu kommt noch, dass die USA gemäss offizieller Statistik wesentlich mehr Gold exportieren, als sie produzieren - es wird immer offensichtlicher, wer den Goldpreis manipuliert!

Gruss

TFischer

[TFischer]

Dazu noch ein neuer Artikel zu Goldstocks:


GOLD STOCKS. November 1, 2000

Professor von Braun

The Rocket School of Economics



Certainly since early in 1997 owning shares in gold mining companies has been an unprofitable exercise. Even at today’s price levels I still read comments that suggest these shares are a "good" buy, that the gold price is going to explode, that mining companies are a good hedge against inflation and so on. But are they? Or is the worst yet to come? Will a good buy become a goodbye?

Not so long ago it was relatively easy to understand a gold mining company. One could look at its cost of production, reserves, additional prospects, cash flow, profitability and location. Reading annual and quarterly reports gave one a realistic picture of the company. Mining analysts, employed by brokerage houses, on average kept up with additional potential and advised their clients accordingly.

Now things have changed, really changed. The complexities of the paper gold market have spread to mining companies and even before one invests in a gold producer the criteria required to make an accurate assessment of a companies prospects has grown.

The first question that needs to be asked is "does the gold price have further to fall?" Given the complexities of this market, the widespread use of derivatives, the amount of paper gold, the inability of demand to affect price and further central bank sales it is perhaps prudent to assume that the worst is not over yet.

Also worth keeping in mind is that bear markets don’t end with a whimper. The final move down usually bankrupts the remaining players, the last of those still playing the long side. We have not seen this yet, although we are getting close.

The second question that needs to be asked is "are you buying a mining company or a hedge fund?" What happened to Ashanti and Cambior last October was an early warning signal about the perils of hedging and the negative effect it can have on shareholders, by virtue of a collapsing share price. Since that time we have had the usual ridiculous press releases coming from some mining companies that are supposed to inform the shareholders, but are really not other than a response to the times. Of course a CEO is going to say, after being asked 5000 times, that the company is reducing its hedge book, or will stop selling forward from now on, or has covered its shorts.

The bottom line is that they can’t. Any company that has a hedge position is involved in the derivatives business. They can no longer deliver into these positions with additional gold other than what they produce than they can continue to high grade their respective deposits without incurring increased costs.

The idea of a mining company buying gold on market to eliminate a forward sales position is, with a few notable minor exceptions, a myth. The physical gold required is simply not available. A concerted effort to cover hedges by purchasing gold would cause the price to rise and margin calls would result. Whoops! Most mining analysts know this, although little has appeared in print to date. That’s apart from the fact that most mining companies don’t have enough cash to facilitate this type of transaction anyway.

Unless a company’s hedge book is clearly understood and the company is clearly telling the truth in terms of the extent of its position, they are best left alone.

The next question that should be asked is what is the extent of the company’s debt? Some mining companies have debt levels that would have been manageable at $325 gold but are problematic at $275. In some cases they have also hedged, so if the price rises they too may face margin calls. Even the comment that they have only hedged 12 months production and are not at risk is a fallacy. All hedge books are at risk, which translates to the underlying assets being at risk. Which suggests a falling share price!

No longer is it possible to place mining companies under one umbrella either. They need to be looked at from several different factors these days. It is best to look at this industry as extremely fragmented and begin to consider a) location and b) the currency of the location.

Mining companies located in the US are most at risk from a rising US $ and a falling gold price. Companies located in South Africa are being helped by the weakness of the SA Rand, while companies in Australia should be benefiting from the weakness of the Aus $ and aren’t.

The Australian gold stock index is telling us something given its failure to respond to the gold price in rising Aus $’s. Rumors about several Aus gold producers having problems with their hedge books continue to appear. They also appear to be currency related, not only did they sell forward but they locked in the exchange rate as well, in some cases when the Aus $ was at .65 cents US. Now it is struggling to stay above .52 cents US, a 20% decline.

Mining companies that have little or no forward sales stand to benefit the most when the derivatives game ends, but they too are at risk at present. Can they survive falling gold prices? Do they have enough cash to continue subsidizing current production? Is their cash cost below $200 and what is there total cost? Don’t be fooled by announcements that highlight the cash cost and don’t mention the total cost. Debt costs, as do senior management and head offices. The high grading of some mines also has some analysts (the better ones), looking at the hidden costs of that activity as well. Every time rock is moved a cost has been incurred, not forgetting of course rising fuel costs either.

Companies with projects in exotic locations are also at risk. Regardless of where, should the gold price finally move up, then countries that need gold will not hesitate to nationalize existing projects if they have to. The former Soviet Union, South America and parts of Asia are not what I would call stable. Nor can a company with low cost production in one country expect to use that to offset high production costs in another. It may work for a while but at some stage, as the derivative debacle unravels concerns will be raised by political opportunists.

Generally speaking, when a bear market, in any market ends the first leg up of the new bull market is missed by most investors. The remaining longs were blown away in the final leg down, the move up tends to be fairly quick and by the time investors realize what’s happening it’s time for a pause. How many people were buying oil stocks when oil was at $10 per barrel?

The final leg down will not worry those with substantial hedge books, depending of course on what currency they are using, but the first leg up will, especially if gold exceeds $400. The margin call saga will take time to unfold and the damage will not be known for a while.

Yes, there is money to be made in gold stocks but, given the uncertainty surrounding hedge books and the fact that it is not easy to extricate ones production from a forward sales position, it is perhaps better to be cautious at this late stage of a bear market.

Some Wall Street brokerage houses are, currently, even recommending gold stocks to their clients, while their bullion desks are selling the metal down. Whether they have spoken to their respective analysts or not I don’t know, but I do know that the back room boys are working overtime to come up with new computer models that suggest arbitrage opportunities, mostly for their firms account. Don’t be surprised if the front room is unaware of the back rooms strategy.

Professor von Braun can be contacted via email at [e-mail]

Gruss

TFischer

[DrLupo]

Das Beste was seit langer Zeit zu Minen gesagt wurde!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dem ist nichts hinzuzufügen!!!!!!!!!!!!

Cu DrLupo