Globix - Die Zweite Exodus Communications ? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Slartzer]

Vorab die Jahreszahlen Wirtschaftsjahr 1999/2000.
Sequentielles Wachstum Internet 32 %

GLOBIX REPORTS FOURTH-QUARTER AND ANNUAL 2000 RESULTS

Annual Revenue Increased 140 Percent to a Record $81.3 Million
Internet Revenue Reached a Record $53.1 Million - a 307 Percent Increase From the Prior Year
New York and London SuperPOPs Reach EBITDA Breakeven in the Quarter, Ahead of Plan
Net Loss Decreases From Third Quarter 2000
Application Services Advance With Streaming Media at $5.1 Million Annualized Run Rate

Globix Anticipates It Will Achieve Significant Growth For The Full Fiscal Year 2001, As Follows:
Total revenue for fiscal year 2001 is expected to be approximately $130 million to $140 million.
EBITDA losses for fiscal year 2001 are expected to be between $85 million and $90 million.
Capital expenditures, working capital and capital lease payments are estimated to be $160 million


Nun der Vergleich zu EXDS.
Bis Ende Oktober 2000 verlief der Kurs von exds und gbix nahezu parallel.
http://www.bigcharts.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=gbi…

Valuation – Merrill Lynch 26 October 2000

Globix currently trades at 6.0x 2001 revenue multiple.
This is in line with the median hosting multiple of 6.4x.
Our current price objective of $45 represents a 9x multiple
on 2002 revenues. We feel that type of multiple expansion
will be difficult to realize in the current market
environment. Therefore, we are lowering our price
objective to $28, which is based on maintaining a 6x ’02
multiple.

Die Empfehlung wurde bei einem Kurs von etwa 15 $ veröffentlicht. Gestern stand Gbix bei 7 $. Rechnet man Price/Sales 2001 auf der Basis eines Umsatzes von 130 Mio. $ und einer Marktkapitalisierung von 250 Mio. $, so erhält man einen revenue multiple von 2.

Exodus (bei geschätzten Umsatz von 1,8 Mrd. $) liegt dagegen bei 7 (Price/Sales 2001).

[Slartzer]

Interessant ist auch die Übereinstimmung bei den Top Ten Institutional Holdings
http://www.insidertrader.com/freestuff/ticker_summary.asp?se…
http://www.insidertrader.com/freestuff/ticker_summary.asp?se…

Exodus
1. Janus Capital Corporation 6/30/2000 42,178,66 Aktien 10,1 %

Globix
1. Firsthand Capital Management 9/30/2000 5,120,900 Aktien 13,8 %
2. Janus Capital Corporation 6/30/2000 4,658,890 Aktien 12,6 %

[Slartzer]

Und noch eine Empfehlung von

individualinvestor.com
Other: Tomorrow`s Tech-Stock Superstars

Research Analyst: Bob Hirschfeld (09/13/00)

Every investor dreams of finding the next Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO - news) or JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ: JDSU - news) and snapping up the shares before they soar. And even with this year`s correction in the Nasdaq Composite Index -- still down 4.25% year-to-date -- those technology bellwethers continue to trade at astronomically high price-to-earnings ratios.

The trick, then, is to find the future Ciscos and buy them when they`re cheap. Two tech stocks we think fit that description are up-and-comers in their respective sectors: Teledyne Technologies (NYSE: TDY - news) in optical networking, and Globix (NASDAQ: GBIX - news) in the web-hosting area.

Both are companies with market capitalizations in the small- to mid-cap range. The market caps of Teledyne and Globix are $857 million and $1 billion, respectively. In contrast, Internet business-to-business (B-to-B) company Ariba (NASDAQ: ARBA - news) boasts a hefty $36 billion market cap, while Web-hoster Exodus Communications (NASDAQ: EXDS - news) has a bountiful $25 billion market cap.

Mid-cap stocks have been the place to be this year, outperforming their larger-cap brethren. As of September 11, the Russell Midcap index was up 12.8% this year. That beats the meager gains of the S&P 500, up 1.7%, and the NASDAQ 100, up 2.8%.

Though not yet profitable, Globix had strong revenue growth in the third quarter, achieving 50% growth in sequential Internet revenues, a full 12% ahead of consensus expectations. And overall revenues doubled year over year.

Revenue mix improved during the quarter, shifting to 72% for Internet services and 28% for equipment sales, compared with 58% and 42%, respectively, in the second quarter. That helped gross margin to expand to 51% from 43% sequentially.

Globix offers such hot Internet services as streaming media, which increased to $239,000 from $149,000 sequentially, and application services, which rose to $850,000 from $680,000 from quarter to quarter.

Though the revenues mix is growing more profitable, the company continues to spend heavily to build its data center facilities, known as SuperPOPs, says UBS Warburg analyst Glenn Waldorf. During the quarter, build-out expenditures came to $53 million, though Globix currently has cash of about $500 million, which Waldorf believes is enough to sustain the company through 2001.

Globix`s three SuperPOPs are located in key information centers in Silicon Valley, New York City, and London. Moreover, according to Waldorf, the data centers are state-of-the-art, providing business customers with power backup, security, and information replication.

Waldorf`s forecast calls for dramatic top-line growth but a protracted wait for bottom-line growth; The company is likely to report losses for at least the next three years, he says. Revenues, however, will expand to $82 million for fiscal 2000 from $34 million in 1999, then increase sharply to $191 million in 2001.

Waldorf, who rates the shares a ``buy,`` notes that Globix trades well below its peer Web-hosting group, at 5.4 times revenue, versus 8.8 times his year 2001 revenue forecast for the group. Compared with Exodus, Globix is even cheaper, as Exodus trades at 14 times revenues. On a discounted cash-flow model basis, Waldorf forecasts a target price of $42 per Globix share, a 45% premium to its recent price.

Bottom line:

We like the idea of buying small- to mid-cap technology stocks, given their greater potential for substantial price appreciation. And we recommend picking stocks that have not yet reached celebrity status. Teledyne and Globix certainly fit the bill.

[Gurki]

@ all:

warum schmiert gbix so ab ??? lagen doch die zahlen weit über den erwartungen der analysten !!!

[Slartzer]

Wird wohl Merrill Lynch verantwortlich sein. Mir ist nur nicht klar warum bei den vorliegenden Zahlen und einer Marktkapitalisierung von 250 Mio. $ ein Downgrade erfolgt.


Merrill Lynch suddenly downgraded GBIX for no apparent reason

GBIX
at 7.25, down 1.5
Merrill Lynch suddenly downgraded GBIX for no apparent reason
Co. has decided to slow its expansion, making it fully funded with cash reserves, so no concerns
about liquidity.
ML cites 3 factors that limit near term clarity: potential capacity restraints to revenue growth (nearly
out of space, need new facility); cost and timing to finalize capacity plan; revenue growth in first half
of 2001

Aus der Analyse:

FQ4 Results Beat Consensus
Internet revenues of $20.4 M came in slightly below our
$20.7 M and beat consensus of $20.3 M. Sequential
growth of Internet revenue came in at 31.6%, down from
the exceptional 50.0% in FQ3 and 48.2% in FQ2, but still
strong relative to other hosters results this quarter, such as
Exodus’s at 28% and Digex’s at 25%.
Server sales came in at $5.5 M, 6.9% below our $5.9 M
estimate, but we do not focus on server sales, since they
are lower margin and provided primarily as an
accommodation to customers. Over time, we expect the
company to phase out of this business.
Gross margins expanded sequentially from 50.5% in FQ3
to 54.9% in FQ4, and beat our 51.6% estimate.
EBITDA losses expanded slightly from ($15.1) M in FQ3
to ($15.3 M) but beat our ($16.9) M estimate. Globix has
not yet reached its peak EBITDA quarter. We expect this
to happen in FQ4 2001, as the company moves toward
EBITDA breakeven in FY 2002 and FCF breakeven in FY
2003.