Yahoo - Die Comebach Aktie - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[dakinky]

finance online-Nachricht (USA)
Sonntag, 26.11.2000, 13:33
Gute Nachrichten für Yahoo

Für das Internetportal Yahoo hat die amerikanische Feriensaison sehr gut begonnen. Am vergangenen Freitag, dem Tag nach Thanks Giving konnte Yahoo ca. dreimal soviel Geschenke über das Internet verkaufen, wie im Jahr zuvor.


Besonders begehrt sind Videospiele und die Playstation 2 von Sony. Aber auch DVDs und Digitalkameras sind in diesem Jahr sehr gefragt.


Im nachbörslichen Handel konnten die Aktien von Yahoo weitere 2% auf 41 Dollar zulegen. Am Freitag konnte das Papier damit eine Performance von insgesamt 8% vorweisen.

[e-mail]

[dakinky]

Friday November 24, 3:18 pm Eastern Time

AFTER THE BELL - Yahoo, Amazon extend gains

NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. online search engine Yahoo! Inc.(NasdaqNM:YHOO - news) extended gains in after-hours trading on Friday, adding to a standard session rise of more than 7 percent amid a broad rally in technology stocks.

Yahoo shares last traded on the Island electronic brokerage system at $41.20, up from the regular session close of $40-7/8.

Before Thursday`s Thanksgiving holiday Yahoo shares fell to a new year low of $38-3/16, after more analysts raised concerns about Internet advertising revenue.

Amazon.com Inc. (NasdaqNM:AMZN - news) shares edged slightly higher after hours to $29 on the Island. Amazon shares surged nearly 15 percent to $28-15/16 during the regular session when investors scooped up technology bargains, despite the brief crash of the online retailer`s Web site during the busy post-Thanksgiving shopping day.

Shares of online retailer eToys Inc (NasdaqNM:ETYS - news) -- which has plummeted in the last year from a high of more than $70 -- rose further after hours, to $1.88 on the Island. The shares ended the top U.S. shopping day up nearly 49 percent at $1-13/16.

The Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC - news) ended the regular trading day up 148.90 points, or 5.4 percent, at 2,904.24, when deeply discounted tech stocks flew off the shelves on what is traditionally the start of the holiday shopping season.

In quiet extended hours trading, shares of Commerce One Inc. (NasdaqNM:CMRC - news) added to gains from the shorter day session, trading last on the Island at $40. Shares of the business-to-business software maker ended the standard day more than 21 percent higher at $39-1/4. Commerce One shares had been hurt in the last week by rumors, later denied, of weak sales, followed by the fallout from Oracle Corp.`s (NasdaqNM:ORCL - news) dive after a key executive left the firm to join rival Veritas.

Nasdaq 100 December futures rose 146.5 to 2,829 after hours and Dow Industrials December futures were up 112 to 10,530.

[dakinky]

Internet: Meine Favoriten für die nächsten 2-3Jahre

Primär:
Yahoo
Amazon
Oracle
Redback
Nortel
Commerce One
Broadvision
Palm
Softbank
Sun Microsystems
Ericson

Also die gesamten "Fallen Angels". Was der Markt vor 2 Jahren bis
zum Frühjahr diesen Jahres vorweg genommen hatte, war, meiner
Meinung nach, gar nicht so falsch. Die meisten Firmen, deren Kurse
so in die Höhe geschossen waren, haben eine Art Mutterstatus für
Ihre jeweiligen Bereiche. Dieser Vorsprung, so denke ich, wird Ihnen
kaum mehr zu nehmen sein.
Der Bekanntheitsgrad einer Yahoo und Amazon ist ähnlich einer
Daimler-Chrysler und wird über die nächsten Monate auch deren
Kassen vollspülen, sprich diese Firmen endgültig in die Gewinnzone
bringen.

dakinky

[dakinky]

Pulse: Internet Stocks Capture the Holiday Mood With Gleeful Rise
By John Raess
Staff Reporter
11/24/00 4:53 PM ET

Internet stocks got a little cheap loving today, as bargain hunters brought up the prices of some of the sector`s biggest names battered by downgrades and a lack of investor confidence.

TheStreet.com Internet Sector index was up 11.1% on trading volume that was well below normal, led by Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - news), eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - news), Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq - news) and RealNetworks (RNWK:Nasdaq - news).

In November alone, each of these former Internet highfliers slipped anywhere from 32% to 40%. Bargain hunters have moved in, but they seem to be picking up the best known -- though recently battered -- stocks. And this may widen the separation between the survivors and the also-rans as the dot-com space consolidates.

"I think people will buy the big names, but the tide will not lift all boats," said Bear Stearns analyst Jeff Fieler. Today`s bounce might not be sustainable, but in general, he said, the bigger and better Internet stocks have had their valuations worked over enough so that they are starting to look better from a standpoint of traditional metrics.

Adding to that is the increasing concentration in Internet traffic. The top-10 Internet sites now account for 33% of page views, up more than one-third over the past two years, he said.

The big-name Internet market leaders whose values have been cut will survive and thrive beyond today`s bargain-hunting bounce, said Safa Rashtchy, an analyst with U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray.

There are opportunities also for a second tier of Internet companies, said Rashtchy -- those whose valuations have been cut to ratios of two or three times revenue but who retain solid fundaments.

After a week that saw a decline after downgrades of 14.7% Tuesday and 7.5% the next day, portal giant Yahoo! closed up $2.69, or 7.04%, to $40.88. Online retailer Amazon, bouncing off the traditional open of the holiday shopping season, closed up $3.75, or 14.89%, to $28.94 on volume that was about 93% of average.

RealNetworks was up $2.44, or 17.97%, to $16 on volume that was about half of normal. And eBay was up $4.06, or 12.4%, to $36.94 on volume that was about 75% of average.

[zocker_erwin]

Yahoo kaufen und im einem Jahr sind wir bei 200 Euro.

Ist doch schwachsinn das Yahoo Konkursreif ist.

m f g
erwin

[ballard1]

wieso taucht Yahoo aktuell so ab, der gestrig Nasaq-anstieg ging ja wohl voll an Yahoo vorbei.
Hängt daß mit den Werbeeinnahmen-Problem zusammen?
Yahoo hat ja wohl mehrere Säulen, oder? Bin nicht beunruhigt, weiß ja
daß Yahoo das Internet-Basisinvestment ist, kann es dennoch nicht nachvollziehen

[Montero]

Merrill Lynch hat die Umsatzerwartungen für Q1 und Q2 2001 zurückgenommen.

Ich meine aber schon, dass Yahoo die Rally von gestern voll mitgemacht hat.

Also, hoffentlcih eine Weihnachtsrally mit Yahoo!

Gruss,
Montero

(komplette Meldung bei Yahoo.com-Finanzen nachlesbar)

[ballard1]

Nadaq schießt voll hoch und Yahoo?????????Shit.
Bin zwar long und positiv, aber sowas stimmt mich schon
skeptisch.

[helmut3]

Kennt jemand die Marktkapitalisierung, den Umsatz oder den Gewinn von Yahoo?

Bei comdirect ist dort Fehlanzeige.

helmut3

[inminki]

daten vom 3.quartal 00:

umsatz: 295,5 mio$
gewinn vor steuern: 130,8 mio$
gewinn nach steuern: 81,1 mio$

ausstehende aktien: so um die 600 mio, genaue daten hab ich nicht
kurs: 34 5/16$
market cap: 600mio * 34 5/16$ = ca. 20 oder 21 mrd$
kgv auf basis des 3.quartals 00: 21mrd$ / (81,1 mio$ * 4)= 65

also wird sich das papier noch mal sechsteln. bei einem
kurs von 5 1/4$ also ein faires kgv 10 kann man eine
turnaround-spekulation riskieren.

mfg inminki

[Stockfinder]

inminki:

du solltest nicht so einen Quatsch posten, machst dich nur lächerlich! Yahoo ist mit einem KGV`01e von 40 aktuell günstig bewertet. Für wieviel möchtest du solch einen Markennamen denn haben - für 5 $? - Nein, nein - Yahoo ist mit ein bis zwei anderen Werten die so oft angesprochene "letzte geschlachtete Kuh". Nachdem der Wert jetzt verbilligt wurde - steht einem positiven Gesamtmarkt, und auch einer positiven Yahoo, nichts mehr im Weg. Weihnachten steht vor der Tür - traditionell der beste Monat! Auffällig auch die hohen Handelsvolumina bei diversen Yahoo-Calls - 751247 z.B. am Freitag mit schlappen 330.000 € bestückt, hat eine 60$-Basis bis 06.01. - da sind wohl einige sehr optimistisch gestimmt - ich auch! Yahoo, wird es auch noch auf dem Mond geben!

[ballard1]

@inminki, wenn ich solche Postings lesen, krieg ich echt Agressionen.
Bitte poste zukünftig nicht mehr solchen Schwachsinn.

[bullagainstbear]

Wann bringt Yahoo die nächsten Zahlen raus.

[stocksauer]

warum fällt yahoo? weil heiko thieme yahoo empfohlen hat!

[ron summer]

Yahoo!: Quartalszahlen Q4
Mittwoch, 10. Januar 2001
Bekanntgabe nach Börsenschluss (USA).

[inminki]

immer schön locker bleiben . der letzte abstatz in
meinem posting war nicht ernst gemeint, wollte mich nur mal
abreagieren. aber wenn ich die yahoo kursentwicklung sehe,
zum kotzen ist das. bye the way hätte ich nicht im traum
daran gedacht, das einige ihre papiere zu schleuderpreisen
vor die säue werfen. wer weiss vielleicht kommen demnächst
ein paar idioten daher, die zu 20$ die yahoo verscheuern.
ich schliesse gar nichts mehr aus, man kommt sich vor wie
im irrenhaus. dies erregt mich zeitweise derartig das ich
ausflippen könnte. eine yahoo zum kgv einer pro7 -
einem x-beliebigen fernsehkanal der wahrscheinlich sogar
noch verschuldet ist - ach das ist doch lachhaft, warum
rede ich überhaupt. die dummheit der anleger kann man gar
nicht hoch genug einschätzen.

aber nicht mit mir, zwar halte ich nachkäufe generell für
verfehlt, sind meistens ein zeichen von mangelnder
selbstkritik. doch das lasse ich nicht auf mir sitzen.
bei 30$ wird erstmals nachgekauft und wenns auf 15$ fällt
nochmal nachgelegt. kohle und disziplin hab ich genung um
das wenn nötig auch 10x durchzuziehen. pah, mir kann
keiner wirklich was. und wenn yahoo pleite geht und ich
das eingesetzte geld verliere, selbst das haut mich
finanziell nicht aus den latschen.


inminki

[helmut3]

@inminki

vielen Dank für die Infos, interessant wäre auch die Quelle. Bei yahoo usa stand, dass es 594 Millionen Anteile gibt, was deiner Angabe entspricht. Vielleicht kannst du ja mal eine site posten, in der man solche finanzinformationen findet.

Danke

helmut3

[inminki]

soderle, am montag werde ich zuschlagen. wie man sieht braucht man beim kauf nicht in hektik verfallen, dank schwachem dollar bekomm ich sie jetzt zu 30eur. im voraus schon ein dankeschön an den verkäufer . ich gehe davon aus, dass das papier in 00 alle marktbreiten us-indizes locker stehen lässt. aber wer weiss vielleicht verliert yahoo dieses jahr wieder 90% und landet bei 3$? die wahrscheinlichkeit dafür ist zwar mikroskopisch gering, aber nicht null! hehe mal sehen was die zukunft bringt, man weiss nie was man kriegt. eines ist sicher: ich werde gewinnen, egal was passiert.

ach so ja am 10. kommen die earnings, ich gehe von akzeptablen zahlen aus:

umsatz q4: 310 mio$
gewinn nach steuern: 83mio$
gewinn pro aktie: 14cent

andere meinungen, ist es dumm jetzt zu kaufen und warum?
gibt es noch jemanden der die aktie im depot hat oder sind alle pleite?
gebt mal ein lebenszeichen von euch

[inminki]

natürlich muss es heissen in 01, bin halt ein gewohnheitstäter , alles alte wird noch ne weile mitgeschleppt.

wie bei den aktien

[DerMaurer]

Hi,

ich habe keine Yahoo, obwohl ich Yahoo auch für eine gute Firma halte.

Makrtkapitalisierung : (Quelle : Onvista)

ca. 16.500.000.000 Euro

2002 er KKV von ca. 42

Gewinnwachstum ?

Man kann ruhig noch warten und evtl. so um die 20 Euro einsteigen.

Ein Pluspunkt, daß mit dem Umsatz die Margen steigen soll(t)en.

Ein Fragezeichen : Wird Yahoo die starke Marke bleiben, die
es im Moment ist ?

Wie setzt sich der yahoo - Umsatz zusammen und welche Chancen un dRisiken bestehen hier ?

DerMaurer



Yahoo Baisse Stimmung Datum : 04.01.2001
Zeit :14:28


Wie die Analysten von Finance-Online berichten zählt Yahoo (WKN 900103)
neben dem normalen Suchmaschinen- und Portalangebot zu den weltweit
größten Internet-Auktions-Anbietern.
Das Unternehmen werde jetzt für die Auflistung von zu versteigernden
Gegenständen eine Gebühr von mindestens 20 Cents bis zu 2,25 Dollar
verlangen. Beim Abschluss von Auktionsgeschäften würden jedoch weiterhin
keine Gebühren anfallen. Gemäß den Experten würden die größten
Konkurrenten von Yahoo Amazon und eBay schon seit längerem
Abschlussgebühren verlangen und hätten später auch Gebühren für die
Auflistung eingeführt, was zusätzlich mit den täglich neu hinzukommenden
150.000 Auktionsgegenständen Yahoo zu einer beliebten Alternative gemacht
habe. Weiter heißt es, dass der Konzern zukünftig darauf achten werde,
dass keine Nazi und Ku Klux Klan Gegenstände mehr gelistet werden können.

Zu diesen Neuerungen bei den Online-Auktionen hätten sich die
Analystenhäuser Merril und US Bancorp positiv geäußert. Diese würden etwa
30 bis 80 Mio. Dollar zum diesjährigen Umsatz von ca. 1,4 Mrd. Dollar
beitragen, laut Henry Blodget, Analyst von Merril. Einige Kunden würden
vom Yahoo-Angebot nun keinen Gebrauch mehr machen, jedoch sei es aufgrund
der anfallenden Gebühren bei einem erfolgreichen Abschluss einer Auktion
immer noch günstiger als bei den meisten Konkurrenten. US Bankcorp Analyst
Safa Rashtcy schätze, dass die zusätzlichen Einnahmen 5 Cents mehr
Gewinn/Aktie für 2001 bedeuten würden und habe seine Kaufempfehlung
bestätigt.

Schon seit einigen Monaten würde Yahoo, neben AOL.com das weltweit größte
Internet-Portal, versuchen sich neben Werbung neue Einnahmequellen zu
erschließen. Yahoo habe sich bisher als Portal etabliert, dass sich durch
Werbung finanziere und einige Dienstleistungen von anderen großen
Internet-Unternehmen kostenlos übernommen hatte, um zusätzliche Nutzer zu
gewinnen und noch mehr Werbung zu schalten. Die Firma müsse sich wegen des
Wegbruchs der Dot.com Werbung Werbung von jungen Internetunternehmen, die
zur Zeit reihenweise pleite gehen, ein weiteres Umsatzwachstum suchen. Man
habe über 80 % der Einnahmen durch Werbung im letzten Jahr erwirtschaftet.

Nach Ansicht der Experten von Finance-Online sei der Umschwung von einem
fast ausschließlich kostenlosen Angebot auf ein kostenpflichtiges
gefährlich, da hier einige Fragen aufkommen würden: Bleiben jahrelang
treue Kunden weiterhin treu, wenn der selbe Dienst woanders kostenlos ist?
Wird Yahoo versuchen, durch ein noch besseres Angebot sich von der Masse
der Anbieter abheben? Ist das Geschäftsmodell Internet-Portal überholt?
Muss nicht auch eine Medien-Internet-Fusion mit dem Vorbild AOL-Time
Warner angestrebt werden?

Im Markt würde bereits seit einigen Wochen das Gerücht umhergehen, dass
Disney Yahoo bei dem sehr günstigen Aktienkurs übernehmen könnte, nachdem
Anfang des Jahres Yahoo Disney übernehmen sollte. Hier sei
entgegenzuhalten, dass sich Disney Yahoo zwar leisten könnte, aber eine
Übernahme trotzdem ein gewaltiges Vorhaben darstellen würde. Außerdem gebe
es keine Notwendigkeit einer Übernahme, solang der Aktienkurs von Yahoo
falle. Nach Meinung der Experten werde es wahrscheinlich bei einem Wert
von über 10 Mrd. Dollar Marktkapitalisierung von Yahoo keine
Übernahmeschlacht geben.

Gründe für den starken Kursverfall der Aktie in den letzten Monaten seien
unter anderem die vielen Fragen, Spekulationen und die Zweifel. Laut den
Experten von Finance-Online würden an kaum einem vorher unbezweifelten
Allgemeinplatz im High-Tech Sektor nicht Zweifel von Investoren, Analysten
und Kommentatoren nagen. Baisse Stimmung eben, so die Experten.

[inminki]

Analysts anticipate slow growth from Yahoo
By Bloomberg News
January 8, 2001, 12:55 p.m. PT
Web portal Yahoo is expected to show slowing profit growth this week when it reports fourth-quarter earnings, as advertising sales falter.

Analysts expect profit of 13 cents a share--excluding amortization of goodwill, other noncash and onetime charges--compared with 10 cents a share, adjusted for a stock split, in the year-earlier quarter, according to First Call. The company is unable to maintain the pace of doubling per-share earnings in each of the past three years, analysts said. Some expect Yahoo to miss the 13 cents-per-share projection. "If Yahoo hits fourth-quarter estimates, it will be awfully close, and a slight earnings miss would not come as a shock to anyone," Lehman Brothers analyst Holly Becker wrote in a report to clients. She rates Yahoo shares "neutral."

Yahoo, which gets about 90 percent of revenue from selling advertising space, has struggled as other Internet companies have run short of cash and cut back ad spending, analysts said.

Chief executive Timothy Koogle has been trying to get more traditional companies to advertise on Yahoo.com and trying to increase revenue from sources such as e-commerce and broadcasting events on the Internet.

Yahoo shares have fallen 86 percent over the past year amid investor fears that changing the company to reduce its dependence on dot-com advertising will be difficult.

"I do believe that will happen over time," said Marc Klee, co-portfolio manager of the John Hancock Technology Fund. "But it`s kind of hard to turn a big company on a dime."

Santa Clara, Calif.-based Yahoo has said it will report earnings Wednesday after the close of U.S. markets.

Whispering expectations
Unpublished estimates of Yahoo`s earnings, so-called whisper numbers that often are higher than consensus forecasts, are lower this quarter than the published projections, Becker wrote. The company is expected to earn 12 cents a share on the Web site EarningsWhispers.com.

Revenue for the fourth quarter is projected to rise 57 percent to $315.03 million, according to First Call.

Yahoo is less likely to earn as much as analysts project for 2001, investors said. Executives may tell analysts to lower their projections when they discuss earnings on a conference call.

"Everyone expects that they`re going to lower guidance, going forward," said Paul Cook, portfolio manger of the Munder NetNet Fund, which owns about 750,000 Yahoo shares.

Yahoo is projected to earn 57 cents a share this year, up from 48 cents a share in 2000, according to First Call. Revenue is expected to rise 29 percent to $1.44 billion.

Yahoo representatives have declined to comment on analysts` earnings projections.

Attracting advertisers
As ad sales to Internet companies decline, investors hope Yahoo will offer an upbeat assessment of its effort to attract more advertising from companies that have avoided the Internet.

"The market is shrinking in the dot-com area," Cook said. "They`re trying to replace them with advertisers from the traditional world. But they don`t have a lot of clarity yet. It`s early January. We don`t know what advertising budgets are going to be."

Traditional companies spent less than expected on advertising in the last quarter. Time Warner, owner of cable networks such as CNN and TNT, and Walt Disney, owner of the ABC TV network, have said profits were less than analysts forecast, partly because of slower-than-expected ad sales at their TV networks. News Corp., owner of Fox stations and the Fox network, said it expected "softening" in the U.S. advertising market during the quarter.

Adding options
Investors also want Yahoo to outline plans for boosting revenue from services.

Executives have said they want to increase sales of services such as Corporate Yahoo, which sets up internal Web sites for companies, and Yahoo Broadcast, which sends live video and audio over the Internet for corporate customers.

The company plans to start charging users for access to some of its Web sites. Last week, Yahoo said it will add fees when customers list items for sale on its online auction sites.

Those businesses still aren`t big enough to make up for lost advertising sales this year, analysts said.

"There`s just a general belief that the advertising market has dried up during the last three months," WR Hambrecht analyst Derek Brown said. He rates Yahoo shares "neutral."

Copyright 2001, Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved.

[inminki]

Monday January 8 4:03 PM ET
Net Leader Yahoo Suffers with Lesser Dot-Coms

By Andrea Orr

PALO ALTO, Calif. (Reuters) - Internet investors are braced for yet more bad news later in the week, this time from the leading online media site Yahoo! Inc (NasdaqNM:YHOO - news), which once seemed blissfully exempt from the industry`s woes.

Yahoo is widely expected to show a sobering fourth quarter earnings report on Wednesday, including a possible miss in results for the period just ended, and a likely reduction in forecasts for 2001.

Although the company has not made any public predictions, its drifting share price and the mounting words of caution from the financial analyst community, suggest there are problems.

On Monday, Yahoo was trading around $26 a share, just a dollar above its 52-week low and almost 90 percent off its peak price.

``We lowered our rating on the stock several weeks ago due to concerns about the fourth quarter, but also due to expectations that the guidance (for 2001) will be coming down,`` said W.R. Hambrecht analyst Derek Brown.

``My feeling at this point is that if Yahoo meets the fourth quarter it is likely to just squeak by.``

Like Brown, most of the other analysts who follow Yahoo are undecided about whether the company, once known for easily surpassing earnings forecasts, will meet them this month. But most agree it will be a squeaker of a quarter and Yahoo will have words of caution for the new year.

The source of Yahoo`s troubles is as simple as its business model, which is based largely on online advertising. Yahoo has lost a lot of business from other dot-com companies that a year ago were advertising aggressively, but have since slashed their marketing budgets or gone out of business entirely.

And now, as the same slowdown that afflicted the dot-com world over the summer hits the overall economy, analysts fear Yahoo`s exposure to risky advertisers may be far bigger than originally thought. The company`s Plan B, to attract more advertisers from the old economy to replace the fly-by-night Internet advertisers, may not be materializing as hoped.

Advertising Not The Only Problem

Henry Blodget, a prominent Internet analyst with Merrill Lynch, last week said he expects the company will just barely meet consensus forecasts for fourth quarter earnings of 13 cents per share, but will make a warning about results going forward.

In an even stronger warning, Lehman Bros` Holly Becker wrote in a research report that ``a slight miss (in the fourth quarter) would not come as a shock`` and that ``management will need to guide down estimates.``

Becker went on to say she thought ``expectations for results and forward guidance are far lower than consensus estimates currently reflect.``

Analysts are currently forecasting the company will earn 48 cents per share in fiscal 2001.

If the soft advertising market is Yahoo`s biggest problem, it is not its only problem. Other areas of concern include its shopping service which connects consumers to thousands of online merchants. Last quarter, the company showed a strong increase in the number of merchants participating in the service but less growth in amount of revenues the service generated.

U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray analyst Safa Rashtchy said he remains concerned over a slower-than-expected adoption of the online mall.

``People still have to get used to the idea of going to one place online to fine everything they are looking for,`` he said.

``If Yahoo can mold its shopping idea more with its content so that people actually go there to look for ideas and deals then the traffic will increase. It`s just that the adoption has been slower than we expected.``

The success of another newish business, Yahoo`s enterprise service that helps big companies build their own in-house portals, also remains a big question mark. There are also uncertainties over how successfully Yahoo may add fees to some services it currently provides for free.

The company has been under pressure to reduce its dependence on advertising by charging customers directly for some of its services. But a move last week to add a fee to its auction service was met with mixed response, and some worried it would alienate consumers who had selected Yahoo auctions over the much bigger eBay Inc (NasdaqNM:EBAY - news), precisely because it was free.

[inminki]

Tuesday January 9, 10:08 am Eastern Time
TheStreet.com - Fund Watch 2
Gut Check: Many Managers Get Their Yahoo! Out of Their Funds


Worries about valuation and online advertising have spurred selling.

By Lee Barney
Staff Reporter


As far as Internet companies go, Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO - news) appears to be the rare bird that has it all.

Real profits, continued growth, a huge customer base, a clean financial statement and a dominant role in its sphere. The one thing it doesn`t have, however, is a big group of fund managers who believe the Internet portal company`s still-lofty stock valuation is justified.

Even though Yahoo! has 166 million registered users and is one of the most recognizable brand names around the globe, fund managers and analysts told this week`s Gut Check they`re cautious about the stock due to the market`s mauling of dot-coms and the weakening online advertising climate. Nor do they expect stellar news from the company when it announces its fourth-quarter results this Wednesday.

That doesn`t mean they don`t still have faith in the long-term prospects for Yahoo! It`s just that they don`t believe that the stock is poised for a rebound anytime soon. Merrill Lynch analyst Henry Blodget issued a report last week saying Yahoo!`s fourth-quarter revenue are likely to meet the consensus revenue target of $316 million only barely and that the company is likely to cut estimates for the first quarter and beyond. Further, he forecasts 2001 earnings per share in the range of 50 to 55 cents, 5 to 10 cents below consensus.

Fund skippers` primary concern over Yahoo! is its valuation. While the stock opened today at $27.38, down 89% from its 52-week high of $225.63, its price-to-earnings ratio is 66.8, which is still awfully high, fund managers say. By comparison, the average P/E of other Internet companies is 45.8; in the S&P 500 , the average is 23.8, according to Zacks . "P/Es could continue to compress until they meet long-term growth rates," says Akber Zaidi, portfolio manager of the StockJungle.com Pure Play Internet fund, a sector fund that has about 4% of its assets in Yahoo!

First Call/Thomson Financial estimates that for fiscal 2000 ending Dec. 31 Yahoo!`s earnings will rise 96%, but for 2001, earnings will only rise 19%.

The second big quandary fund managers have with Yahoo! is the anticipated slowdown in online advertising and the weakened economy. Yahoo! derives 90% of its revenue from online advertising and the rest from rental and transaction fees. Rob Zidar, portfolio manager of the Merrill Lynch Internet Strategies fund, sold off a position representing 2.37% of the fund`s total assets in October for this reason. Citing the same concerns, Bob Grandhi, portfolio manager of the Monument Digital Technology fund said he recently sold out of a position representing 3.32% of the fund`s assets. Both currently own no Yahoo! stock.

"We are concerned about the advertising market and the slowdown in the economy," Zidar says. The consolidation of Internet companies and the Fed rate cut last week might lift online ad revenues somewhat, Zidar says. But advertising revenue remains a concern because, "If the economy is weak, then all bets are off," he says.

"Yahoo! is a very solid company that`s built a worldwide brand name and franchise that`s built to last," agrees Grandhi. "But we are concerned about Yahoo! and other Internet companies that are dependent on advertising revenue."

Yahoo!`s announcement last week that it would begin charging listing fees for its auction services was met, on one hand, with praise for revenue diversification. On the other hand, there was caution that it is a sign of more fees to come. One of the biggest attractions for Yahoo! users is that they can get so much at the site -- chat, information, shopping, email, voice mails and instant messaging -- for free, analysts say.

"Yahoo! has a loyal following because of its free content model," says Gene Alvarez, program director of the electronic business strategy group at Meta Group . "By introducing fees, they might lose some of their membership base, and if they reduce that base, it would impact advertising revenue. And yet -- investors are looking for Yahoo! to diversify revenue, so it`s a Catch-22," Alvarez says.

John Faig, an analyst on the AXP Growth fund from American Express Financial Advisors believes fees might alienate Yahoo! users. He also says Yahoo! would have been wiser to introduce fees during the Internet hysteria of last year.

Goldman Sachs issued a report this morning disagreeing with disapproval over the introduction of fees. In fact, Goldman, which has done underwriting for Yahoo!, applauds "the introduction of additional pay services as catalysts over the coming quarters."

Many analysts more bullish on Yahoo! also point to optimistic ad revenue projections for Yahoo! and other Internet companies. Internet advertising rose 65% in 2000 to $3.2 billon and will rise another 60% this year to $5.1 billion, predicts Robert Coen, a senior vice president at Universal McCann whose annual ad revenue forecasts are highly regarded in the advertising industry.

"The amounts spent to place banner ads on the Internet will probably rise sharply again as the largest marketers continue to experiment and expand their online presence," Coen predicts.

Broadband and compression technologies are allowing Internet sites like Yahoo! to marry video, sound and, soon, animated and holographic images, and portend a bright future for Yahoo!, according to a First Albany report issued last week. Yahoo! already offers streaming video on financial news, says Jonathan Hodson-Walker, a senior vice president with First Albany.

Yahoo! also "has a large database of all its users, which is very important information," Hodson-Walker says, adding that Yahoo! has said it can segregate its 166 million users into groups as small as 17,000. "There is no getting away from the Internet as a communications medium. It`s more personalized and relevant than any other medium," Hodson-Walker says.

Streaming video and wireless applications are two of the main reasons Bear Stearns expects Yahoo! to return to the $160 range in the next 12 months and to continue to outperform the S&P 500 over the next decade, says Jeff Fieler, a consumer Internet analyst with the firm. In a recent Internet report, Bear Stearns analysts went so far as to say, "Yahoo! is positioning itself at the epicenter of a multidevice world as the data resource to those devices: mobile phones and personal digital assistants," as well as to the future marriage of PCs and phones through telephony. (Bear Stearns has not done any underwriting for Yahoo!.)

Scott Kessler, an Internet analyst with Standard & Poor`s , says future predictions may all be well and good, but what matters right now for the direction of the stock is the online advertising climate. Until that changes, he will continue to rate Yahoo! a hold.

"You can`t conjure revenue out of thin air. It`s going to be increasingly difficult for Yahoo! to meet estimates if this market doesn`t turn around," Kessler says.

Goldman agrees that even though the market has already priced "modestly lowered 2001 guidance into [Yahoo!] shares in recent weeks," earnings figures on Wednesday could cause "additional weakness this week."